Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [12][13] - The coal price is expected to remain weak in May due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but there is a bottom support for prices, and a gradual recovery is anticipated as the peak season approaches [3][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still present [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 635 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The international thermal coal price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.8 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1380 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 96.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points week-on-week [47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 33.80 thousand tons/day, a rise of 12.17% week-on-week [12] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 12.40 thousand tons/day, a decline of 6.67% week-on-week [12] Inventory Situation - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port has increased to 753 thousand tons, up 8.0% week-on-week [5] - The inventory of coking coal at production sites has risen to 390.43 thousand tons, an increase of 8.9% week-on-week [5] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown a 1.47% increase this week, underperforming the broader market [15] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for stable operations and solid performance [13]

Group 1: Core Views - The recent upgrades in stock ratings by brokerages are primarily concentrated in sectors with significant performance growth, rising industry sentiment, or turnaround situations, particularly in AI and robotics [2][5] - The number of stocks downgraded by brokerages has reached a year-to-date high, with notable downgrades in the coal and tourism sectors [5][6] Group 2: Upgraded Stocks - Multiple stocks in the AI and robotics sectors have received rating upgrades, including: - Platinum New Materials, with a projected net profit of 376 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [2] - Huichang Communications, expected to achieve a net profit of 29 million yuan in 2024, turning profitable with a 12.28% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 [2] - Beijing Junzheng, with Q1 revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and anticipated market recovery [3] - Keli Sensor, reporting a net profit of 76 million yuan in Q1, a nearly 76% year-on-year increase [3] - Nanshan Zhishang, recognized for its leading position in domestic wool spinning and new materials applications [3][4] Group 3: Downgraded Stocks - Several coal stocks have been downgraded, including: - Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma, downgraded to "overweight" due to weak coking coal prices [5] - Shanmei International, also downgraded to "overweight" despite low mining costs and potential production increases [5] - The tourism sector has seen downgrades, such as: - Jinjiang Hotels, with a Q1 net profit of 36 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year [5] - Miao Exhibition, downgraded due to declining revenue amid intensified competition [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - Brokerages are optimistic about AI and high-dividend sectors for May, with expectations of a continued oscillating market [7] - Recommendations include focusing on three main directions: financial dividends, self-sufficiency in industries like military, and domestic consumption [7] - The market is expected to follow a gentle recovery path, with attention on cyclical sectors and growth styles, particularly in AI and robotics [7]

2025 年 5 月 3 日 公司研究 业绩具备韧性，产能外延增长可期 ——山西焦煤（000983.SZ）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件： 2025 年 4 月 28 日，公司发布了 2024 年度报告及 2025 年一季报。2024 年，公司营业收入 452.9 亿元，同比-18.4%，归母净利润 31.1 亿元，同比-54.1%， 扣非净利润 30.2 亿元，同比-55.8%；2025Q1 公司营业收入 90.3 亿元（同比 -14.5%、环比-26.0%），归母净利润 6.8 亿元（同比-28.3%、环比+159.8%）， 扣非净利润 7.3 亿元（同比-19.1%、环比+186.8%）。 风险提示：钢材需求大幅回落；焦煤进口超预期增长。 公司盈利预测与估值简表 | 指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 55,523 | 45,290 | 43,759 | 43,909 | 44,059 | | 营业收入增长率 | -14.82% ...

Core Insights - Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) reported a total operating revenue of 9.026 billion yuan for Q1 2025, ranking 7th among disclosed peers, which is a decrease of 1.526 billion yuan or 14.46% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 681 million yuan, also ranking 7th among peers, reflecting a decline of 269 million yuan or 28.33% year-on-year [1] - The net cash inflow from operating activities was 1.886 billion yuan, ranking 4th among peers, showing an increase of 3.058 billion yuan year-on-year [1] Financial Ratios - The latest debt-to-asset ratio is 56.38%, ranking 21st among peers, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points from the previous quarter, but an increase of 9.92 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The latest gross profit margin is 30.80%, ranking 11th among peers, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points from the previous quarter, but an increase of 2.56 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The latest return on equity (ROE) is 1.83%, ranking 11th among peers, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year [3] Earnings and Turnover - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is 0.12 yuan, ranking 15th among peers, a decrease of 0.05 yuan or 28.32% year-on-year [3] - The latest total asset turnover ratio is 0.08 times, ranking 16th among peers, a decrease of 0.03 times year-on-year [3] - The latest inventory turnover ratio is 2.68 times, ranking 23rd among peers, a decrease of 0.99 times year-on-year [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders is 153,000, with the top ten shareholders holding 3.856 billion shares, accounting for 67.91% of the total share capital [3] - The largest shareholder is Shanxi Coking Coal Group Co., Ltd., holding 57.29% of the shares [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, with a continued downward trend in Q1 2025, primarily driven by decreased coal sales and pressure on other business segments [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 45.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.1 billion yuan, down 54.10% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 9.03 billion yuan, a decline of 14.5%, and a net profit of 680 million yuan, down 28.33% [1]. Coal Production and Sales - The decline in coal sales was the main reason for the performance drop in 2024, with total coal sales of 25.6 million tons, including significant decreases in various coal types: coking coal down 20.3%, fat coal down 17.67%, and lean coal down 12.37% [2]. - The average selling price of coal decreased by 5.43% to 1,037 yuan per ton, with coking coal priced at 1,544 yuan per ton, also down 5.4% [2]. Power and Other Business Segments - The power segment turned profitable in 2024, with revenue of 6.87 billion yuan, despite a decrease in electricity sales by 5.94% [3]. - The coking and building materials segments continued to face challenges, with coking revenue down 9.46% to 8.7 billion yuan and building materials revenue down 30.44% to 280 million yuan [3]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 36.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years, alongside a forecasted net profit of 2.12 billion yuan for 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's focus on optimizing and strengthening its core business while improving quality and efficiency, indicating that performance improvements are expected [4][5] - The company has faced challenges such as declining sales and prices, leading to a decrease in gross profit margins in its coal business [4] - Despite the challenges, the company is positioned to benefit from its rich coking coal resources and low-cost mining operations, which may provide resilience in pricing [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 45.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.11 billion, down 54.10% [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 9.03 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.46%, but a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 159.8% in net profit [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,037 per ton, down 5.43% from 2023, while the average cost per ton increased by 9.55% to 495 [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit, with projections of 2.76 billion, 3.27 billion, and 3.49 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will improve from 0.49 in 2025 to 0.62 in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [7] - The company is actively pursuing quality coal asset acquisitions, which are expected to contribute to future growth [5][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to improve its performance through optimizing its main business and enhancing efficiency. The report highlights the company's efforts to strengthen its coal business and its recent acquisition of exploration rights for coal and associated bauxite resources, which will support sustainable development [4][5] - The company has faced challenges such as declining sales and prices, leading to a decrease in gross profit margin. However, it maintains a strong position in the market due to its high-quality coking coal resources [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 45.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.11 billion, down 54.10% year-on-year. The operating cash flow was 9.06 billion, a decline of 33.84% [1][2] - For the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.03 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.46%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.68 billion, down 28.33% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 1,037 per ton, a decrease of 5.43% compared to 2023, while the average cost per ton increased by 9.55% to 495 [4] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.76 billion, 3.27 billion, and 3.49 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.49, 0.58, and 0.62 [7] - The report indicates that the company’s P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 13.24, 11.16, and 10.45 respectively, reflecting a positive outlook for growth [7]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue was CNY 45.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 3.11 billion, down 54.1% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share were CNY 0.5475 [1] - In Q1 2025, operating revenue was CNY 9.026 billion, a decline of 14.46% year-on-year [1] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was CNY 681 million, down 28.33% year-on-year [1] Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 2.2 per 10 shares (including tax), totaling CNY 1.25 billion, which accounts for 40.19% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [2] - The board has proposed to authorize the formulation of a mid-term profit distribution plan for 2025 [2] Sales and Market Outlook - The sales model combines long-term contracts and market sales, with a 1.2 million ton increase in coal sales year-on-year despite a decline in sales prices [1] - The company expects improved sales performance due to stable steel prices and ongoing national policies [1] Cost Control Measures - The company employs monthly operational analysis and dynamic adjustments to enhance efficiency [3] - Focus on cash flow management and strict budget control to minimize unnecessary expenditures [3] - Continuous cost analysis to control fixed and variable costs effectively [3] Power Generation Sector - The company has optimized coal cost management and marketing strategies in response to the rising share of renewable energy and declining spot electricity prices [4] - Achieved CNY 140 million in revenue from carbon quota trading in 2024 [4] Production and Sales Strategy - The company adheres to a "price stability and volume-price linkage" principle, enhancing production and sales coordination [5] - Focus on contract fulfillment and improving collection of receivables to maximize benefits [5] Market Value Management - The company has established a market value management system in line with regulatory requirements [6] - Plans to conduct capital operations and potentially inject quality assets when appropriate [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering its expected internal and external growth and high cash dividend ratio [4][6]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 45.29 billion yuan, down 18.43% year-on-year, and net profit at 3.11 billion yuan, down 54.1% year-on-year [1][5]. - The first quarter of 2025 also showed a decline in revenue to 9.03 billion yuan, down 14.46% year-on-year, and net profit at 681 million yuan, down 28.33% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company plans to maintain a stable operational strategy for 2025, targeting coal production of 46 million tons and coking coal production of 1.67 million tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a raw coal output of 47.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.47%, while the sales volume of commercial coal decreased by 20% to 25.6 million tons [2]. - The average selling price of coal fell by 5.43% to 1,037.23 yuan per ton, while the cost of sales per ton increased by 9.55% to 495.41 yuan per ton, leading to a decrease in gross margin by 6.85 percentage points to 52.29% [2]. Business Segments - The electricity and heat business reported a slight profit with a gross margin of 2.51%, while the coking business remained in a loss position with a gross margin of -0.48% [3]. - The company plans to produce 3.5 million tons of coke and generate 19.3 billion kWh of electricity in 2025, indicating a stable operational outlook [3]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.68 billion yuan, 3.02 billion yuan, and 3.24 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.47 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.57 yuan [4][5]. - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 14, 12, and 11 times, respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to improve its performance through multi-channel cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 [1][2] - The company has significant coal resource advantages, with a total coal resource reserve of 6.53 billion tons and additional exploration rights acquired for 0.953 billion tons of coal and 55.61 million tons of bauxite [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.25 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 40.2%, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.4% based on the closing price on April 28 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 45.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.108 billion yuan, down 54.1% year-on-year [1][4] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 is projected at 9.026 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.46% year-on-year, with a net profit of 681 million yuan, down 28.33% year-on-year [1] - The company’s total coal production for 2024 is expected to be 47.22 million tons, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal is projected to be 25.6 million tons, a decrease of 20% year-on-year [8] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 is expected to be 1,037 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.0% year-on-year, while the average cost is projected to be 495 yuan per ton, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year [8] Future Earnings Estimates - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2 billion yuan, 2.3 billion yuan, and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.9X, 15.8X, and 14.7X [3][4]