Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to face a sluggish fundamental environment, with performance under pressure in the short term. However, there are signs of potential recovery in the future, albeit at a slow pace [4][2]. - The report anticipates that the performance of the real estate sector will remain under pressure in Q3 2025 due to declining sales and low profit margins, but a gradual recovery is expected in 2025-2026 [4][2]. - The government is emphasizing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal initiatives and easing purchase restrictions in major cities [4][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The report predicts that the performance of the real estate sector will continue to be challenged in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decline in sales since 2021 and low profit margins driven by previous price cuts [4][2]. - Sales data shows that the top 50 real estate companies experienced a cumulative sales area decline of 25% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, with significant monthly declines in July to September [4][2]. Company Performance Forecast - The report categorizes major companies based on their expected net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025: - Companies with growth >+15%: Binjiang Group - Companies with growth between 0% and +15%: China Merchants Jinling - Companies with growth between -15% and 0%: China Merchants Shekou - Companies with growth between -30% and -15%: Jianfa Co., New Town Holdings - Companies with growth <=-30%: Poly Developments, Huafa Group [7][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on new opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly in "good housing" policies and the revaluation of commercial real estate. Specific companies are highlighted for investment: - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Co. - Commercial real estate and undervalued companies: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [4][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 册 寂寞诗 顾铮 A0230125070004 quzhenq@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 (8621)23297818× quzheng@swsresearch.com 住建部明确"好房子"五项工作，高质量 地开展好城市更新 ―地产及物管行业周报（2025/10/04-2025/10/10） 地产行业数据：一二手房成交跌幅扩大，成交推盘比回升。上周(10.4-10.10)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 98 万平米，环比-61.3%，其中，一二线环比-63.1%，三四线环比- 18.7%。10 月(10.1-10.10)34 城一手房成交同比-33.5%，较 9 月同期环比-56%。其 中，一二线同比-32.2%，三四线同比-45.3%，分别较 9 月同期环比-56.6%和-48.8%。 上周 13 城二手房合计成交 48.7 万平米，环比-32%; 10 月累计成交同比-18.8%, 较 9 月同期环比-62.9%。库存方面，上周 15 城合计推盘 20 万平 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][27]. Core Insights - The "Good House" policy is expected to create new pathways for growth, leading to a rebound in core cities and introducing new products, pricing, and business models [2][27]. - The report highlights a significant decline in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 61.3% week-on-week [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality urban renewal and effective city governance as outlined by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development [2][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 980,000 square meters, down 61.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 63.1% decline [2][3]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 33.5% compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities stands at 90.27 million square meters, with a slight decrease of 0.2% [2][19]. Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has outlined five key areas for the "Good House" initiative, focusing on standards, design, materials, construction, and operation [2][27]. - Local policies include Guangzhou's measures to optimize land use and Longchun's reduction of down payment ratios for housing loans [2][29]. Company Dynamics - Poly Developments reported a 25.1% decrease in sales volume for the first nine months of the year, totaling 10.104 million square meters [2][33]. - New City Holdings issued offshore bonds worth $160 million at a rate of 11.9% [2][33]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 0.82%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 Index decline by 0.51% [2][38]. - The report identifies top-performing real estate stocks, including Hefei Urban Construction and Zhongrun Resources, while noting significant declines in others like Shenzhen Deep Housing [2][40].

Core Insights - The event marked a significant transformation for China Merchants Shekou, transitioning from a "space builder" to a "lifestyle creator" in the Beijing real estate market [1][3] - The company aims to redefine high-end living standards through innovative club services, establishing a new benchmark in the industry [1][3] Club Value Reconstruction - The strategic event changed the perception of clubs in Beijing's real estate market, making club services a necessary feature for all projects [3][4] - China Merchants Shekou emphasizes that "no club, no high-end" and has developed unique operational models that differentiate its offerings from competitors [3][4] Service Standards and Customization - The newly released property service standards and club rights system include a 5,000 square meter club that has been in trial operation for two years, featuring over 20 functional modules and more than 100 customized services [4][10] - The company employs a rigorous team admission system based on over five years of operational experience, enhancing service quality and creating a competitive barrier [4][10] Ecological Empowerment - The event showcased the core competitive advantage rooted in the company's connection to the century-old central enterprise ecosystem, leveraging resources across various industries [5][6] - Collaborative efforts with financial institutions and luxury brands create a comprehensive support system for residents, integrating finance, lifestyle, and travel services [8][10] Market Performance and Insights - The company has achieved remarkable sales figures, such as the 5.3 billion yuan sales record for the China Merchants Xi project, indicating a strong market presence [11][12] - The focus on understanding high-net-worth individuals' needs for quality living and emotional resonance has been pivotal in driving sales success [11][12]

Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2023, China's real estate investment has shown new characteristics, with a significant year-on-year increase of 36.7% in land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies, amounting to 727.8 billion yuan [1][5] - The land acquisition is highly concentrated among state-owned enterprises, indicating an increasing industry concentration and a pronounced "Matthew Effect" [1][5] - Mergers and acquisitions have become an important method for real estate companies to acquire quality land in core cities, despite a cautious overall investment attitude in the market [1][9] Land Acquisition Trends - The top 10 companies in land acquisition include 8 state-owned enterprises, with notable performances from private companies like Binjiang Group and Bangtai Group [5] - The top three companies by new value added are Greentown China, Poly Development, and China Overseas Property, with respective values of 117.5 billion yuan, 101 billion yuan, and 95.2 billion yuan [5] - The market concentration has significantly increased, with the top 10 and top 20 companies accounting for 56.2% and 68.6% of land acquisition amounts, respectively, marking increases of 14.8 and 13.7 percentage points compared to the end of last year [5] Mergers and Acquisitions - Since the third quarter, several companies have engaged in large-scale acquisitions through joint ventures, focusing on high-value land in core urban areas [9] - Notable transactions include a consortium led by China Resources Land acquiring two projects in Shanghai for 24.47 billion yuan, and another consortium acquiring a city renewal project in Shanghai for 15.478 billion yuan, with a total transaction value of 43.95 billion yuan, setting a record for residential land sales in China [9] Market Dynamics - The investment focus remains on cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, with high competition for premium land parcels [10] - In September, significant land sales in Beijing and Shanghai reached 7.2 billion yuan and 7.9 billion yuan, respectively, with all top transactions being led by state-owned enterprises [10] - Despite some recovery in sales in certain cities, the overall investment remains cautious, with many top companies not acquiring new land, indicating a continued trend of market differentiation [11]

Core Insights - In September 2025, Chengdu's new residential property supply reached approximately 212 million square meters, with transactions around 143 million square meters, indicating a month-on-month increase of 152.2% in supply and 13.8% in transactions [15] - The cumulative sales amount for the top 30 real estate companies in Chengdu from January to September 2025 was approximately 1359.7 billion yuan, with a total transaction area of about 646.6 million square meters [4][6] - The top three companies in terms of sales amount in Chengdu were China Railway Construction Real Estate, China Resources Land, and Chengdu Rail Transit City, each exceeding 100 billion yuan in sales [4][6] Market Performance - In September, the supply of residential properties was approximately 121.9 million square meters, with a transaction volume of about 84.9 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 113.9% in supply and a 4.9% year-on-year increase in cumulative transactions [17] - The total cumulative supply of residential properties in Chengdu from January to September 2025 was 1351.7 million square meters, with total transactions of 1413.7 million square meters [15] Land Transactions - In September, Chengdu launched 21 residential land plots, with 13 successfully sold, resulting in an overall premium rate of 5.5% [19] - The market for second-hand homes also saw an increase in transaction volume, remaining the main driver of market activity, with transaction areas 2.2 times that of new homes [19] Policy Developments - On September 9, Chengdu issued a public consultation announcement regarding supplementary regulations to the "Technical Regulations for Urban Planning Management in Chengdu (2024)," aimed at regulating previous non-standard practices in property gifting and ensuring the overall quality of residential projects [19]

Sales Performance - In September, the company achieved a contracted sales area of 634,000 square meters and a contracted sales amount of 16.698 billion yuan [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, the cumulative contracted sales area reached 5.0867 million square meters, with a total contracted sales amount of 140.706 billion yuan [1] Project Acquisitions - In September, the company acquired a total of 5 projects, with a total investment of approximately 3.055 billion yuan [2][3] - Key projects include: - Hangzhou North Unit 23: Land area of 25,900 square meters, construction area of 64,600 square meters, payment of 863.18 million yuan, with a 51% equity ratio [3] - Xi'an Weiyang District project: Land area of 51,300 square meters, construction area of 117,900 square meters, payment of 738 million yuan, with a 100% equity ratio [3] - Nantong Binjiang South C09 West and East plots: Land areas of 74,200 and 75,000 square meters respectively, payments of 563.93 million yuan and 563.93 million yuan, both with a 41% equity ratio [3] - Nantong Innovation Zone Zilang Lake 88: Land area of 31,600 square meters, construction area of 32,000 square meters, payment of 331.70 million yuan, with a 62% equity ratio [3] Share Buyback - As of September 30, 2025, the company repurchased a total of 44,804,006 shares, accounting for 0.494% of the total share capital [4] - The highest transaction price was 10.78 yuan per share, and the lowest was 8.48 yuan per share, with a total expenditure of approximately 430.27 million yuan [4]

Group 1 - The land market is expected to maintain a certain level of activity in October due to the intensive release of land supply plans in core cities and the gradual effects of new real estate policies [1][2] - As of October 9, the announced residential land supply in key cities shows an increase, with Shanghai planning to offer residential land starting at approximately 18 billion yuan, and other cities like Guangzhou and Beijing exceeding 5 billion yuan [1] - In October, Guangzhou and Wuhan initiated land auctions, with Guangzhou's Baiyun District selling two residential plots for a total of 1.977 billion yuan, one of which had a premium rate exceeding 16% [1][2] Group 2 - The land supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be relatively high quality, and the continued implementation of new real estate policies across various regions is likely to sustain market activity [2] - From January to September 2025, the top 100 real estate companies saw a 36.7% year-on-year increase in land acquisition, with a notable focus on core cities by leading enterprises [2] - In September, the average premium rate for residential land in 300 cities was 3.8%, with high competition observed in premium locations like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu [2][3] Group 3 - Some real estate companies are opting for mergers and acquisitions to replenish their land reserves, such as China Resources Land forming a consortium to acquire two core projects in Shanghai for 24.47 billion yuan [3] - The overall sentiment in the land market is improving, but rational land acquisition remains the main theme, with expectations of continued market activity due to favorable policy environments and improved cash flow for leading companies [3]

Core Insights - The land market is expected to maintain a certain level of activity in October due to the intensive release of land supply plans in core cities and the gradual effects of new real estate policies [1][2] - The supply of residential land in key cities has increased, with significant starting prices announced, such as Shanghai at approximately 18 billion yuan and Guangzhou and Beijing exceeding 5 billion yuan [1] - Major real estate companies are actively participating in land auctions, with notable transactions in Guangzhou and Wuhan, where significant amounts were raised [1][2] Land Supply and Market Activity - The fourth quarter is anticipated to have relatively high-quality land supply, and the ongoing implementation of new real estate policies is likely to sustain market heat [2] - In the first nine months of 2025, the top 100 real estate companies saw a 36.7% year-on-year increase in land acquisition, indicating strong demand from leading firms [2] - The average premium rate for residential land in 300 cities was 3.8% in September, with high competition in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu [2] Mergers and Acquisitions - Some real estate companies are opting for mergers and acquisitions to replenish their land reserves, with significant transactions reported, such as the acquisition of core projects in Shanghai for a total of 24.47 billion yuan [3] - The overall sentiment in the land market is improving, but a rational approach to land acquisition remains the primary focus [3] - The concentration of land supply plans in core cities, combined with a favorable policy environment, is expected to enhance market activity [3]