Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a phase of pressure relief and clearing, with expectations for performance recovery in the future. The focus should be on companies that show early signs of a turning point and have leading growth elasticity [3] - The overall revenue of the liquor sector has declined, with a 5.5% year-on-year drop in total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, and an 18.3% decline in Q3 alone. Net profit also saw a significant decrease of 21.9% in Q3 [12][24] - The high-end liquor segment is under pressure, with a need for macroeconomic recovery to achieve a balance in volume and price. Companies with strong brand positioning and national expansion potential are recommended for investment [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Q3 Performance and Market Conditions - The Q3 performance of the liquor sector shows a slow recovery in consumption scenarios, with overall sales continuing to face pressure. The high-end and next-high-end liquor demand remains under pressure, particularly in business and personal dining scenarios [12][13] - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in Q3 dropped by 18.3% year-on-year, with net profit down by 21.9%, indicating a significant acceleration in the decline compared to previous quarters [12][24] 2. Revenue Trends - The liquor sector's revenue has been on a downward trend, with a 5.5% year-on-year decline in the first three quarters of 2025. The Q3 revenue decline is particularly sharp at 18.3% [12][24] - High-end liquor companies are experiencing a shift in their financial reports, with revenue declines driven by pressure on major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [30][41] 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector has decreased, with Q3 margins at 81.7%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in profitability is attributed to structural issues and increased costs [2][3] - The report highlights that the majority of liquor companies have seen an increase in sales expenses, while management expenses have also risen slightly due to weaker revenue realization [2][3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies that are likely to recover first, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which have strong governance and dividend yields. Other companies to watch include Zhenjiu Lidu and Shede Liquor [3][12] - The focus should be on companies that can maintain channel stability and show early signs of marginal recovery, as the market is expected to support valuations for these firms [12][13]

Group 1 - As of October 31, 2025, Jiangsu has a total of 715 listed companies, including 220 on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Main Board, 114 on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, 125 on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Main Board (including one pure B-share), 203 on the Growth Enterprise Market, and 53 on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] - In October 2025, Jiangsu added one new listed company (Changjiang Nengke), bringing the total number of new listings in 2025 to 21 [1] - The total market capitalization of the 714 listed companies in Jiangsu is 85,985.35 billion yuan, accounting for 13.12% of the total number of A-share listed companies and 8.01% of their total market capitalization [3] Group 2 - As of October 31, 2025, the companies in Jiangsu with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan (excluding the Beijing Stock Exchange) include Hengrui Medicine, WuXi AppTec, Jiangsu Bank, Guodian Nari, Huatai Securities, Nanjing Bank, Huidian Co., S. Hengli Hydraulic, Dongshan Precision, Xugong Machinery, Tianfu Communication, and Yanghe Brewery [5] - The bottom ten ranked A-share listed companies in Jiangsu (excluding the Beijing Stock Exchange) are Yangzi New Materials, Nanwei Co., Guangge Technology, Xuelang Environment, Zhongshe Co., *ST Hengjiu, Ailong Technology, Jinpu Garden, *ST Tianlong, and *ST Suwu [7] - In October 2025, Jiangsu's A-share listed companies had a total of 3 financing events, raising a total of 1.269 billion yuan, while the total financing events for the year reached 49, raising a total of 61.438 billion yuan [7]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector is actively releasing pressure on financial statements, with the industry gradually bottoming out. The frozen food sector is witnessing a turning point, while the soft drink and snack sectors maintain high levels of prosperity [3][4][30] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor - The liquor sector's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 319.23 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.76%, with net profit down 6.85% to CNY 122.67 billion. In Q3 alone, revenue fell 18.38% to CNY 78.48 billion, and net profit dropped 22.00% to CNY 28.09 billion [14][28] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai showed stable growth, while others like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao faced significant declines. Moutai's revenue grew by 9.28% year-on-year, while Wuliangye's fell by 10.26% [17][19] - The second-tier liquor brands, such as Fenjiu, showed resilience with a revenue increase of 5.00%, while others like Shui Jing Fang and Shede experienced declines [26][22] 2. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector saw significant growth, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage reporting a 34.13% increase in revenue year-on-year. The energy drink segment, particularly, showed robust growth [30][31] - The introduction of new flavors and products, such as Dongpeng's summer limited edition, contributed to the sustained high growth rates in this sector [30] 3. Dairy Products - The dairy sector, led by Yili, maintained stable performance despite high base effects, with significant growth in milk powder and cold drink products. New Dairy's low-temperature products continued to show double-digit growth [4][31] 4. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry is experiencing a turning point, with companies noting that the price war has peaked. The focus is shifting towards rational competition and value [7][30] 5. Snacks - The snack sector is undergoing strategic adjustments, with member stores and instant retail becoming key growth channels. The overall consumption environment remains weak, but the snack sector is adapting with targeted strategies [7][30]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices opened higher on November 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.10%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.60% [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) rose by 0.28%, with a premium trading rate of 0.06% [1] - As of November 5, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF had a latest circulating scale of 5.622 billion yuan, ranking first among food and beverage ETFs in the Shenzhen market [1] Group 2: Fund Flows - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF experienced net inflows for 9 out of the last 10 days, accumulating nearly 120 million yuan [1] - The ETF tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading stocks in high-end and mid-range liquor, as well as segments like beverages, dairy, and condiments [1] Group 3: Agricultural Sector - The Tianhong Agricultural ETF (subscription code: 512623, listing code: 512620) officially launched on November 3, with fundraising set to end on November 7, 2025 [1] - This ETF tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, which selects 50 stocks covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, including leading companies like Muyuan and Haida [1] Group 4: Industry Insights - Guizhou Province's Commerce Department is soliciting opinions on transforming "selling liquor" into "selling lifestyle," encouraging innovation in product offerings and service methods in retail and dining sectors [2] - As of October 30, over 90% of the autumn grain harvest has been completed nationwide, with the Northeast region nearing completion and expected to achieve a good harvest [2] Group 5: White Liquor Market Analysis - Guosen Securities reports that the white liquor market is facing pressure on both volume and price due to tightening regulations on public consumption and business banquets [3] - The report indicates that the worst period for white liquor sales pressure has passed, with expectations for demand recovery in the future [3] - Guosen Securities suggests focusing on stable industry leaders and high-quality stocks with long-term growth potential due to ongoing structural upgrades and channel strategy optimization [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, marked by a battle for inventory reduction and financial pressure, with major companies reporting substantial declines in revenue and profit [1][2]. Industry Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, 20 A-share liquor companies reported a total revenue of 320.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.83%, and a net profit of 122.77 billion yuan, down 6.76% [2]. - Only Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu managed to maintain growth, while the remaining 18 companies experienced declines [3]. Quarterly Performance - The third quarter of 2025 was particularly harsh, with companies like Shui Jing Fang and Guo Jiao reporting revenue drops of 58.91% and 51.65% respectively [4]. - Luzhou Laojiao and Kweichow Moutai also faced significant profit declines, with Moutai's revenue growth slowing to 0.56% in Q3, a stark contrast to previous quarters [6][7]. Historical Context - This marks the first major performance decline in five years for the liquor industry, with the number of companies experiencing revenue drops increasing from 2 in 2021 to 7 in 2024 [5]. - The trend of declining profits is evident, with 90% of liquor companies reporting a year-on-year decrease in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [6]. Inventory Crisis - The industry is facing a severe inventory crisis, with total inventory for 20 listed liquor companies reaching 176.69 billion yuan by Q3 2025, an increase of 11% year-on-year [14]. - Companies like Kweichow Moutai hold the largest inventory, nearing 56 billion yuan, while others like Yanghe and Wuliangye also report significant inventory levels [14]. Financial Strain - The financial strain is evident as companies reduce their contract liabilities significantly, with Kweichow Moutai's contract liabilities dropping by 19% to 7.75 billion yuan [17]. - Many smaller liquor companies are facing survival challenges, with some unable to cover their interest-bearing debts [20]. Market Dynamics - The price reduction of Moutai has diminished the price advantage of Wuliangye, leading to a rapid decline in its performance [8]. - Shanxi Fenjiu, despite revenue growth, saw its net profit decline for the first time since 2015, indicating market saturation challenges [9]. Sales Strategies - Companies are increasingly resorting to credit sales to manage inventory, with Kweichow Moutai leading this shift by relaxing its cash payment policies [19]. - The overall market is expected to face prolonged challenges as inventory digestion may take several years due to the current oversupply situation [15].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of tea and alcohol is emerging as a significant trend in the beverage industry, driven by the demand for "micro-drunk" experiences among younger consumers, leading to innovative product offerings and cross-industry collaborations [5][6][46]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The Guizhou Provincial Department of Commerce has issued a draft guideline to promote the transition from "selling alcohol" to "selling lifestyle," emphasizing the integration of alcohol and tea products to expand cross-industry consumption markets [2][3]. - The trend of alcohol and tea fusion is not new, with both alcohol and tea companies seeking growth opportunities through innovative product combinations [5][6]. - The younger demographic is increasingly becoming the main consumer group for alcohol, prompting companies to innovate beyond traditional high-alcohol products to attract this audience [8][49]. Group 2: Product Innovations - Major alcohol brands are launching lower-alcohol or non-alcoholic products to cater to younger consumers, with examples including Moutai's introduction of over ten youth-oriented products at a recent trade fair [12][18]. - The collaboration between Luckin Coffee and Moutai to launch the "Sauce Aroma Latte" achieved remarkable sales, with over 5.42 million cups sold on the first day, generating over 100 million yuan in revenue [28][30]. - New tea drinks incorporating alcohol, such as "Drunken Steps" by Tea Baidao and "Lychee Ice Brew" by Grandpa's Tea, have also gained popularity, indicating a growing acceptance of alcohol-infused beverages [32][39]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market for low-alcohol beverages is expanding, with data showing that fruit wine accounts for 38% of instant retail channels, growing at 72% annually, while tea and alcohol combinations account for 25%, growing at 65% [54][55]. - Health consciousness among consumers is influencing the beverage market, with a significant percentage of consumers expressing concerns about the health impacts of traditional tea drinks, leading to a demand for healthier options [60][61]. - The fusion of tea and alcohol is seen as a strategic move to address the challenges faced by both industries, allowing them to meet consumer demands for "micro-drunk" experiences while ensuring health considerations are met [63].

Core Viewpoint - The relaxation of payment collection requirements by Yanghe has led to a recovery in channel confidence, suggesting that the upcoming Spring Festival may serve as a turning point for the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Yanghe reported a revenue of 18.09 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.975 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2023 [3]. - The company's contract liabilities at the end of Q3 reached 6.42 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.5 billion yuan, indicating a warming trend compared to previous quarters [3][4]. - The average price of core products has slightly increased since the beginning of the year, with the gross profit margin for distributors improving compared to regional competitors [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The white liquor industry is experiencing a release of reporting pressure as companies begin to clear their inventory, with a consensus emerging around the recovery of mid-tier products [2][4]. - The industry is expected to see a turning point in demand during the upcoming Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment around inventory replenishment [2][5]. - The overall market has shown signs of improvement since August, with some brands reporting positive sales growth during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day periods [6]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Yanghe has implemented strict quota controls on its products to maintain price stability and has focused on enhancing its product offerings, including the launch of the seventh generation of its Hai Zhi Lan product line [3][7]. - The company has invested nearly 4 billion yuan in base liquor production capacity since 2011, which has strengthened its supply chain capabilities and product quality [7]. - Yanghe's strategy to leverage its base liquor reserves for product upgrades aims to address consumer preferences and improve channel profitability [7][8].

Core Insights - The announcement of salary cuts at Xuanjiu, a prominent regional liquor company, has raised eyebrows in the industry, especially given its recent strong performance in sales and profits [2][3] - The liquor industry is currently undergoing a significant adjustment period, with many companies emphasizing cost reduction and efficiency improvements [5][6] Company Summary - Xuanjiu, based in Anhui Province, reported a sales revenue of 1.8 billion yuan in 2023, a 23% increase year-on-year, and a profit of 314 million yuan, up 16% [2] - The company plans to reduce employee salaries by 10% starting October 1, 2025, which has led to mixed reactions among staff [1][3] - The chairman of Xuanjiu indicated that high-end product sales are expected to grow over 40% in 2024, with tax contributions reaching a historical high of 512 million yuan [2] Industry Summary - The liquor industry is experiencing a downturn, with a reported 18.09% decline in revenue and a 22.10% drop in net profit among 19 listed liquor companies in Q3 2025 [5][6] - Major players like Wuliangye have seen significant revenue declines, with a 52.66% drop in Q3 revenue [6] - The overall market is characterized by an oversupply, leading to reduced consumption in drinking and gifting scenarios, prompting many companies to adopt cost-cutting measures [5][7] - The industry is expected to remain in a bottoming phase, with cautious forecasts for recovery in 2026 [7][8]

Core Points - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (470064) closed at 2257.45 points, down 0.32%, with a trading volume of 24.053 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.97% [1] - Among the index constituents, 27 stocks rose while 22 stocks fell, with Beixin Building Materials leading the gainers at 2.45% and Yun Aluminum leading the decliners at 3.0% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index include: - BOE Technology Group (9.31% weight, latest price 4.00 yuan, market cap 149.656 billion yuan) in the electronics sector - Hikvision (7.97% weight, latest price 31.50 yuan, market cap 288.693 billion yuan) in the computer sector - Wuliangye Yibin (7.71% weight, latest price 116.18 yuan, market cap 450.965 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - Luzhou Laojiao (6.59% weight, latest price 132.17 yuan, market cap 194.548 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - Xugong Machinery (5.75% weight, latest price 10.79 yuan, market cap 126.815 billion yuan) in the machinery equipment sector - Changan Automobile (3.88% weight, latest price 12.28 yuan, market cap 121.745 billion yuan) in the automotive sector - Shenwan Hongyuan (3.84% weight, latest price 5.45 yuan, market cap 136.468 billion yuan) in the non-banking financial sector - Yun Aluminum (3.81% weight, latest price 22.96 yuan, market cap 79.624 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector - Yanghe Brewery (3.37% weight, latest price 69.81 yuan, market cap 105.165 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (3.18% weight, latest price 5.11 yuan, market cap 68.522 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Capital Flow Summary - The net outflow of main funds from the index constituents totaled 1.125 billion yuan, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 243 million yuan and retail investors saw a net inflow of 882 million yuan [3] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - Tongling Nonferrous Metals: main net inflow of 88.024 million yuan, speculative net outflow of 53.924 million yuan, retail net outflow of 34.100 million yuan - Luzhou Laojiao: main net inflow of 57.790 million yuan, speculative net outflow of 22.566 million yuan, retail net outflow of 35.224 million yuan - Beixin Building Materials: main net inflow of 56.578 million yuan, speculative net outflow of 24.593 million yuan, retail net outflow of 31.985 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that Yanghe Brewery's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 2025 is 3.975 billion (down 53.66% year-on-year), with Q3 showing a net loss of 369 million (compared to a profit of 631 million in Q3 2024) [1] Financial Performance - The company is experiencing a significant decline in net profit, with a 53.66% year-on-year decrease for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a net loss of 369 million, contrasting with a profit of 631 million in the same quarter of the previous year [1] Strategic Initiatives - Yanghe Brewery plans to leverage its over 600,000 tons of aged liquor inventory to launch a true vintage strategy in 2024 [1] - The company has introduced new products, including the seventh generation of "Hai Zhi Lan" and the three-year aged "Yanghe Daqu" [1] Management Changes - The appointment of the new chairman, Gu Yu, is expected to bring about improvements in governance and operational performance [1] Market Outlook - The company is awaiting industry recovery and the effects of its reforms, with a focus on high dividends and a strong dividend yield [1] - Despite current sales pressures on core products, there is potential for demand recovery in the liquor market due to policy catalysts [1] - The company is considered to have high elasticity in its performance, which could benefit from improvements in governance and market conditions [1]