Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a 6-month target price of 15.5 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 was 7.716 billion CNY, a decrease of 35% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 257 million CNY, an increase of 539% year-on-year [1]. - The company's ammonium nitrate and other raw material prices have decreased, contributing to the profitability of the civil explosives business, which saw a net profit of 691 million CNY in 2024, up 24.4% year-on-year [2]. - The lithium business faced challenges due to falling lithium prices, resulting in a combined net loss of approximately 500 million CNY for its subsidiaries in 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.537 billion CNY, a decrease of 14% quarter-on-quarter and 17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 82 million CNY, down 20% quarter-on-quarter but up 452% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit for 2024 was 1.289 billion CNY, with the civil explosives sector contributing 1.233 billion CNY, a 14% increase year-on-year, while the lithium business reported a slight loss [1]. - The company expects revenues of 8.926 billion CNY, 10.800 billion CNY, and 11.181 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 738 million CNY, 950 million CNY, and 1.197 billion CNY [7]. Business Segment Insights - The civil explosives business is expanding its market presence and reducing costs, with a focus on overseas mining services, particularly in Zimbabwe and Australia [2]. - The lithium segment is seeing significant increases in production and sales volumes, with lithium salt production and sales reaching 48,300 tons and 48,000 tons respectively in 2024, up 55% and 63% year-on-year [3]. - The company is enhancing its self-sufficiency in lithium production with the Kamativi Phase II project, which is expected to further reduce reliance on external mineral purchases [3].

Core Insights - The electric vehicle sector showed a recovery in Q1 2025 after a decline in Q4 2024, with significant improvements in revenue and net profit [1][2][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue reached 790.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year but a 26% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 40.9 billion yuan, marking a 38% increase year-on-year and a 41% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The gross margin in Q1 2025 was 17%, a slight decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year but an increase of 4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4] Group 2: Profit Contribution by Segment - In Q1 2025, the profit contribution from batteries was 38%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, while the contribution from complete vehicles was 37%, down 7 percentage points [1][2] - The profit share from midstream materials remained stable at 8%, while lithium carbonate saw a 10% increase in profit contribution to 4% [1][2] Group 3: Market Trends and Outlook - The overall market for electric vehicles remained robust, with global sales reaching 5.82 million units in Q4 2024, a 33% increase year-on-year [2] - The industry is expected to grow by 25% in 2025, driven by a 25% increase in domestic electric vehicle sales and more than double growth in emerging markets and Europe for energy storage [4][5] - The report highlights a positive outlook for leading battery manufacturers and material suppliers, with specific recommendations for companies like CATL, BYD, and others [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical industry, suggesting a new cycle may begin due to improved domestic supply and demand, increased global market share, and declining crude oil prices [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle driven by domestic supply-demand improvements and global market share growth, despite potential short-term impacts from overseas demand [3][5]. - The report highlights that the supply side is gradually improving due to reduced fixed asset investment growth and government policies aimed at curbing excessive competition [5][10]. - On the demand side, domestic consumption is anticipated to recover steadily, supported by government initiatives to boost consumption and stabilize the economy [26][33]. - Cost factors are favorable, with significant declines in international crude oil and domestic coal prices, which will support the profitability of chemical products [42][49]. - The report recommends specific companies within various segments of the chemical industry, including refrigerants, amino acids, military and new materials, and fertilizers, indicating potential investment opportunities [5][57]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The report notes that the chemical industry has faced profitability pressures since 2022, but the current production cycle is nearing its end, which may lead to gradual improvement in profitability as capacity is digested [11][12]. - China's global market share in chemical products has been steadily increasing, with 2023 figures showing a 43.1% share of global sales [25][20]. Demand Side - The report emphasizes that domestic demand is expected to recover, aided by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [26][33]. - The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, which could further support demand for chemical products [33]. Cost Side - The report highlights a significant decline in crude oil prices, with Brent crude falling by 14.71% since the beginning of 2025, which is expected to positively impact the cost structure of the chemical industry [42][38]. - Domestic coal and natural gas prices have also shown a downward trend, enhancing the cost competitiveness of chemical products [49][47]. Valuation - The report indicates that the valuation of the basic chemical and petrochemical sectors is at historical lows, suggesting substantial room for recovery as market conditions improve [54][50].

基础化工/化学制品 雅化集团（002497.SZ） Q1 利润同比大幅增长，锂精矿自给率提升在即 2025 年 05 月 07 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 2024 年，公司民爆业务实现营收 32.63 亿元，同比下降 3.95%，毛利率为 37.80%， 同比提升 5.95pcts；工业炸药销量为 21.10 万吨，同比增长 0.85%。未来，公司 将继续加大在非洲和澳洲区域民爆业务的拓展力度，海外矿服业务有望实现迅速 发展，为公司民爆业务带来新的增长点。 锂盐：锂价下行拖累公司业绩，未来锂精矿自给率提升有望抬升盈利中枢 公司现有锂盐产能 9.9 万吨，预计 2025H2 将再建成一条 3 万吨氢氧化锂产线。 2024 年，公司锂盐销量为 4.80 万吨，同比增长 63.40%，但由于锂盐价格整体下 行，公司 2024 年锂盐板块实现营收 41.16 亿元，同比下降 50.40%，毛利率为 -0.07%，同比下降 5.69pcts，拖累公司利润。2024 年 11 月，公司津巴布韦卡玛 蒂维锂矿二期正式投产，目前该矿山已达到年处理锂矿石 230 万吨采选规模，折 合锂精矿约 35 万吨，预计 2025Q2 ...

基础化工/化学制品 雅化集团（002497.SZ） Q1 利润同比大幅增长，锂精矿自给率提升在即 2025 年 05 月 07 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/5/6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 11.35 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 13.93/7.98 | | 总市值(亿元) | 130.82 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 120.15 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.53 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 10.59 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 100.19 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 雅化集团 沪深300 相关研究报告 《锂业+民爆"双主业"并行，未来业 绩增长可期—公司首次覆盖报告》 -2025.2.25 | 金益腾（分析师） | 蒋跨跃（分析师） | 李思佳（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | jiangkuayue@kysec.cn | lisijia@kysec. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in May is expected to be loose, and the inventory of ternary material factories has decreased compared to last week. The price of lithium carbonate futures and related lithium products has generally declined. The production and inventory of various lithium - related products in China are expected to change in May, and the price of lithium products is prone to decline. It is recommended to short on price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 30,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 73,000 - 75,000 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On April 30, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared to the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of the active contract decreased, and the inventory remained unchanged. The price differences between different contracts and the basis also changed [1] - The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide decreased compared to the previous day. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1] Company Announcements - On the evening of April 25, Bayi Space announced the termination of the "Annual Production of 3,000 Tons of Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Project", with approximately 450,100 yuan already invested [1] - Menglan Xinda stated on the interactive platform on August 30 that the first - phase project of the Malaysian non - ship project has been put into production, with a capacity ramp - up period of several months. The main production capacity in Malaysia will be for the overseas market, and the annual production capacity of suitable cylindrical lithium batteries is expected to exceed 47 million after completion [2] - Zhenhua New Materials announced the postponement of the formal material production line construction project (Yilong Phase III, originally planned to have a total investment of 6.245 billion yuan) [2] Industry News - The Zhangjiakou Nanshan Automobile Industrial Base in Hebei signed a contract with Sanwei (Shaanxi) Battery Technology Co., Ltd. for the Sanwei Solid - State Special Battery Production Base Project. The project will be implemented in two phases with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, and is expected to add an annual output value of 1 billion yuan after completion [3] - An Australian mining company is working on the Global Lithium project, optimizing project economics through mine planning and lithium recycling process improvement. The EU approved a 50 - million - euro subsidy for the Caorvec lithium project [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes 30,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, which may lead to a decline in the price of imported lithium concentrate. China's lithium carbonate production in May is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose [4] - The production of lithium hydroxide in China in May is expected to increase, and the inventory may change. The production of lithium iron phosphate in China in May is expected to increase, and the inventory of lithium iron phosphate factories has decreased compared to last week [4] - The production and import of cobalt sulfate in China may change, and the production of various battery materials such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate in China in May is expected to have different trends [5] Transaction Strategy - Due to the uncertainty in tariff negotiations between the Trump administration and China and the weak domestic lithium demand outlook, lithium product prices are prone to decline. It is recommended to short on price rebounds, paying attention to the support level around 30,000 - 60,000 and the resistance level around 73,000 - 75,000 [5]

证券研究报告 基础化工 | 化学制品 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 05 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | | | | 基本数据 | | | | | 2025 | 年 | 04 | 月 | 30 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | | 11.20 | | | | 一 年 内 | 最 | 高 | / | 最 | 低 | | | 13.93/7.98 | ...

1）雅化集团 （幻方量化参与公司电话会议） 调研纪要：雅化集团坚持双主业发展战略，报告期内锂盐长协客户订单需求稳定，产线逐步建设投产， 民爆业务产能有效释放并积极拓展爆破业务。2024年全年实现营业收入77.16亿元，同比下降35.14%， 净利润2.57亿元，同比上升539.36%；2025年一季度实现营业收入15.37亿元，同比下降17.03%，净利润 8,246.44万元，同比上升452.32%。公司拥有津巴布韦卡玛蒂维锂矿68%控制权，年处理锂矿石230万 吨，现有氢氧化锂产能6.3万吨，碳酸锂产能3.6万吨，预计2025年将新增3万吨氢氧化锂产能。客户包括 特斯拉、松下、LGES等知名企业，海外客户订单占比较大。民爆业务覆盖四川、西藏、新疆等20余个 省市区，客户包括中铁建、中电建等大型央企。公司自2013年收购新西兰红牛公司后，加大在非洲和澳 洲区域民爆业务的拓展力度。 根据市场公开信息及4月30日披露的机构调研信息，知名私募幻方量化近期对1家上市公司进行了调研， 相关名单如下： 机构简介： 幻方量化(九章资产)是一家依靠数学与计算机科学进行量化投资的对冲基金公司。创始团队于2008年开 始致力于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 7.72 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 0.26 billion, showing a significant increase of 539.6% [1][5]. - The stable contribution from the civil explosives business is noted, while the lithium salt business is impacted by falling lithium prices [2][3]. - The company has significant potential with its own lithium mining capacity expected to ramp up, alongside ongoing expansion in lithium salt production [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 77.2 billion, down 35.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.6 billion, up 539.6% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 17.9 billion, a decrease of 26.1% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.0 billion, showing a turnaround from losses [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 15.4 billion, down 17.0% year-on-year, but net profit increased to 0.8 billion, up 446.7% year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - The civil explosives business generated revenue of 32.6 billion in 2024, a decline of 4.0% year-on-year, but net profit for Q1 2025 increased by 23.5% [2]. - Lithium salt sales volume in 2024 reached 48,000 tons, up 63.4% year-on-year, but revenue fell to 41.2 billion, down 50.4% due to price declines [2]. Growth Potential - The company has established its own lithium mining operations in Zimbabwe and Namibia, with significant production capacity expected to come online [3]. - The lithium salt production capacity is projected to expand to nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025, with key customers including Tesla and CATL [3]. - The overseas mining service business is anticipated to grow, leveraging cost advantages in civil explosives [3]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 5.5 billion for 2025, 8.5 billion for 2026, and 10.6 billion for 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 15, and 12 [5][9].

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of CNY 7.716 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.14% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 257 million, an increase of 539.36% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, operating revenue was CNY 1.537 billion, down 17.03% year-on-year [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was CNY 82.464 million, up 452.32% year-on-year [2] - Total assets at the end of Q1 2025 were CNY 14.070 billion, with net assets attributable to shareholders at CNY 10.589 billion [2] Business Overview Lithium Industry - The company entered the lithium industry in 2013 and currently operates two lithium mines: Sichuan Lijiagou and Zimbabwe's Kamativi [3] - It has three production bases for lithium salt products, with a total lithium hydroxide capacity of 63,000 tons and lithium carbonate capacity of 36,000 tons [5] - A new lithium hydroxide production line of 30,000 tons is expected to be completed in 2025, increasing total lithium salt capacity to nearly 130,000 tons [5] Explosives Industry - The company has an industrial explosives production capacity of over 260,000 tons and nearly 90 million detonators [4] - It actively participates in industry consolidation and has expanded its business across various regions, including Sichuan, Xinjiang, Tibet, and others [4] - The company provides approximately 70% of the explosive products for the Sichuan section of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway [10] Resource Management Lithium Resource Control - The company holds a 68% controlling interest in the Kamativi lithium mine, with an annual processing capacity of 2.3 million tons of lithium ore [7] - The self-sufficiency rate for lithium concentrate is expected to improve in Q2 2025 as production ramps up [9] Customer Base - The company has established strong relationships with major clients in the lithium sector, including Tesla, Panasonic, and CATL [8] - A significant portion of the company's orders comes from overseas clients, indicating a robust international market presence [8] Overseas Expansion - Since acquiring New Zealand's Red Bull Company in 2013, the company has developed a strong capability for overseas expansion [11] - It aims to leverage its cost and efficiency advantages in the explosives sector to enhance its business in Africa and Australia [12]