证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 化学原料 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | 卫星化学 (002648) | 报告日期： 2024 年 10 月 27 日 | | 24Q3 业绩环比改善显著，看好公司中长期成长 | | | ——卫星化学 2024 年三季报点评 | | 事件 ❑ 10 月 22 日，公司发布 2024 年三季报：2024 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 322.75 亿元，同比+0.71%；实现归母净利润 36.93 亿元，同比+7.64%；加权平均 净资产收益率为 13.90%，同比减少 0.43 个百分点。销售毛利率 22.10%，同比增 加 3.36 个百分点；销售净利率 11.43%，同比增加 0.45 个百分点。 ❑ 其中，2024 年 Q3 实现营收 128.75 亿元，同比+9.89%，环比+21.51%；实现归母 净利润 16.37 亿元，同比+2.08%，环比+58.36%；平均净资产收益率为 6.05 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 32.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.693 billion yuan, up 7.64% year-on-year [1]. - The company benefits from a significant cost advantage in its ethylene production process due to low raw material prices and energy consumption, with the cost of ethane at 19.9 cents per gallon, which is historically low [1]. - The company has initiated the construction of additional ethane ships, with six ships ordered in July 2023 and eight more planned for 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 32.275 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.693 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 4.088 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported a revenue of 12.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.51% [1]. - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 5.395 billion yuan, 6.490 billion yuan, and 7.684 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 8 times [2][3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 41.487 billion yuan in 2023 to 50.614 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 22% [3]. - The net profit is projected to increase from 4.789 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.395 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.6% [3]. - The company’s P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 13.2 in 2023 to 11.7 in 2024, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 results that exceeded expectations, with a total revenue of 32.275 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 0.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.693 billion yuan, up 7.64% year-on-year [2] - Q3 single-quarter profit saw a significant increase due to the resumption of production after maintenance and improved product price differentials, with Q3 revenue reaching 12.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.51% [2] - Capital expenditures continue to grow, with 2.121 billion yuan spent in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.66%, and ongoing projects ensuring the company's growth potential [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.677 billion yuan, 6.839 billion yuan, and 8.548 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.69 yuan, 2.03 yuan, and 2.54 yuan, indicating strong growth potential [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a net profit of 1.637 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.08% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 58.36% [2] - The average price of raw materials such as U.S. MB ethane decreased by 46.46% year-on-year in Q3 2024, while the price differential for ethylene production increased by 33.26% year-on-year [2] Capital Expenditure and Projects - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company's ongoing projects amounted to 3.498 billion yuan, a 9.79% increase from the end of 2023 [2] - The successful launch of the first phase of the 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project is expected to enhance the utilization of propylene resources and lower production costs [2] Future Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 12.0% for 2024, with net profit growth rates of 18.5%, 20.5%, and 25.0% for the following years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 32.28 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.69 billion yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year [2] - The C2 segment's profitability has improved due to a decrease in ethane prices, with the average price in Q3 2024 at 124 USD/ton, down 20 USD/ton from the previous quarter [2] - New projects are progressing steadily, including the first phase of the Lianyungang α-olefin high-end new materials industrial park, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [2] - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 5.41 billion yuan in 2024, 6.4 billion yuan in 2025, and 9 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 7 times [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 23.6%, a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points, and a net profit margin of 12.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 percentage points [2] - The total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 47.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.65% [1][8] Project Development - The first phase of the C2 project in Lianyungang has commenced, with a total investment of 26.6 billion yuan, expected to be operational in early 2026 [2] - The company has also initiated the first phase of the 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project, enhancing the resilience of the C3 industrial chain [2] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 18.74 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 63.13 billion yuan [4] - The company has a P/E ratio of 13.28 based on the latest diluted earnings per share of 1.42 yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][21] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in Q3 profits, with the α-olefin project opening up new growth opportunities [3][6][21] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from 445 billion to 669 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits increasing from 54 billion to 95 billion yuan during the same period [7][21] Summary by Sections Market Data - The 52-week price range for the company's stock is between 12.74 and 20.54 yuan [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 32.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.71%, and a net profit of 3.693 billion yuan, up 7.64% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.51% [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 23.62%, up 2.61 percentage points year-on-year [3] Price Trends and Material Costs - The average price of ethane in Q3 2024 was 115 USD/ton, down 45.62% year-on-year and 18.93% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The price spread for polyethylene was 7216 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.20% year-on-year [3] Project Developments - The company successfully launched the first phase of its 800,000-ton multi-carbon alcohol project in July 2024, which enhances its C3 integrated industrial chain [6] - The α-olefin comprehensive utilization project is under construction with a total planned investment of approximately 266 billion yuan [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 12, 9, and 7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating strong future earnings potential [7][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported significant improvement in Q3 performance, with a total revenue of 32.275 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.71%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.693 billion yuan, up 7.64% year-on-year, and the net cash flow from operating activities was 5.694 billion yuan, an increase of 24.72% year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.875 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.637 billion yuan, up 2.08% year-on-year and 58.36% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. - The company is advancing its new projects, including the successful launch of the α-olefin comprehensive utilization high-end material park project, which is expected to open a second growth curve for the company [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported: - Revenue: 32.275 billion yuan - Net profit: 3.693 billion yuan - Operating cash flow: 5.694 billion yuan - Non-recurring net profit: 4.088 billion yuan [4][5]. - In Q3 2024: - Revenue: 12.875 billion yuan - Net profit: 1.637 billion yuan - Non-recurring net profit: 1.854 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 5.43 billion yuan, 7.69 billion yuan, and 11.54 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11.7X, 8.3X, and 5.5X [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 32.275 billion yuan for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.71%, and a net profit of 3.693 billion yuan, up 7.64% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 12.875 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.51% [4]. - The company benefits from declining raw material prices and the release of new production capacity, positioning it well for future growth as downstream demand recovers [4][5]. - The company is a leader in the light hydrocarbon cracking sector, with significant potential for growth as it expands its product offerings in the C2 and C3 industrial chains [6][7]. Company Overview - The company operates in the chemical industry, focusing on functional chemicals (47.7%), high polymer new materials (28.3%), and other businesses including new energy materials (22.2%) [2]. - As of October 23, 2024, the company's A-share price was 18.74 yuan, with a target price set at 23 yuan [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 23.62% in Q3 2024, an increase of 3.36 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower ethane prices and the resumption of production after maintenance [5]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.2 billion yuan, 6.5 billion yuan, and 8 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 24%, and 23% [7][8]. Production Capacity and Projects - The company has a robust production capacity in the C2 and C3 industrial chains, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its product offerings and operational efficiency [6][7]. - The company is currently in a phase of rapid capacity release, with multiple projects under construction, including a high polymer emulsion project and a propylene acid project [6][7]. Market Position - The company has established a strong supply chain with its own dock and fleet for raw material transportation, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in downstream demand for products such as polyethylene, epoxy ethane, and styrene [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's profitability improved in Q3 2024, with new materials opening growth opportunities [2] - The company achieved a total revenue of 32.275 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.693 billion yuan, up 7.64% year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 12.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 1.637 billion yuan, up 2.08% year-on-year and 58.36% quarter-on-quarter [2][3] Price Trends and Profitability - The decline in ethane prices led to an expansion in the price spread of ethylene and other products. The average price of natural gas in the U.S. for Q3 was $2.24 per million British thermal units, down 3.39% quarter-on-quarter, while the average price of ethane was $115.96 per ton, down nearly $26. The profit from ethylene production via ethane cracking was 3,905 yuan per ton, an increase of 213 yuan quarter-on-quarter [3] Financial Costs and Cash Flow - Financial expenses increased by 92.48% year-on-year, primarily due to foreign exchange losses. However, the company's operating cash flow net amount increased by 1.15 billion yuan year-on-year, highlighting its financial stability [4] Strategic Developments - The company is extending its industrial chain towards new materials, having commenced construction of the first high-end new materials industrial park for α-olefin comprehensive utilization in China. The new process for producing 1-butene has been evaluated positively, indicating potential for raw material import substitution [5] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.8 billion yuan, 7 billion yuan, and 8.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11, 9, and 7 times [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][2] Core Views - The company reported a significant quarter-on-quarter increase in performance, with the successful launch of the butanol project contributing positively [1] - The third quarter revenue reached 12.875 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.89% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.51% [1] - The company is benefiting from the recovery of production and sales after maintenance, along with improved price differentials for C2 raw materials [1] - The butanol project has successfully produced qualified products, which will help reduce costs and stabilize supply for the acrylic ester unit [1] - The company is advancing its high-end new materials industrial park project, which is expected to double its ethylene equivalent production capacity by 2026-2027 [1] Financial Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 54.94 billion yuan, 66.81 billion yuan, and 94.19 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.21, 9.22, and 6.54 [2] - Revenue is expected to grow from 41.487 billion yuan in 2023 to 69.695 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.8% [4] - The net profit margin is projected to improve from 11.5% in 2023 to 13.5% in 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [5] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 18.8% in 2023 to 21.7% in 2026, reflecting better capital efficiency [5]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/化工/石油化工 证券研究报告 卫星化学（002648）公司季报点评 2024 年 10 月 23 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------|-----------------|-------| | 股票数据 | | | | 10 [ Table_StockInfo 月 22 日收盘价（元） ] | | 18.93 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 12.74-20.54 | | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 3369/3366 | | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 63768/63726 | | | 相关研究 | | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《多碳醇项目顺利投产，实现 | C3 产业链耦合 | | | 闭环》 2024.07.19 | | | | 《业绩同比大幅增长，研发投入持续增加》 | | | | 2024.04.25 | | | | 《业绩同比增长 ...