A股大消费板块持续爆发，曼卡龙大涨17%，香飘飘、乐惠国际此前涨停，西麦食品涨超8%，盐津铺子 涨超7%，三只松鼠、有友食品涨超5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The konjac snack industry is gaining popularity among consumers due to its crispy texture and low-calorie, healthy characteristics, indicating a broad future potential for the konjac category [1]. Group 1: Konjac Industry Chain - The demand side shows that konjac is widely used in food, healthcare, industrial, and agricultural fields, with the primary application in food, including snacks, meal replacements, and fresh ingredients. The konjac snack market is projected to reach approximately 172-192 billion yuan by 2024 [3][11]. - On the supply side, the planting area for konjac has been limited and has faced challenges, leading to a decline in planting area for four consecutive years since 2020. The planting area is expected to decrease to 178 million mu in 2024, with a projected 20% reduction in fresh konjac yield due to drought conditions [3][14][19]. Group 2: Industry Barriers and Outlook - The konjac industry faces barriers such as limited planting technology and low barriers in the processing sector. The downstream application space remains large, with significant growth potential in the konjac snack market [4][25]. - The konjac snack segment is considered a promising market due to its health attributes and strong flavor absorption capabilities. The market for konjac snacks is expected to surpass traditional spicy strips, with leading brands like WeLong and YanJinPuZi establishing a strong market presence [4][34]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Trends - The konjac snack market is projected to grow significantly, with WeLong's konjac products expected to generate over 30 billion yuan in sales by 2024, indicating a strong market position [11][34]. - The konjac jelly market is also anticipated to expand, with a projected market size of approximately 47 billion yuan in 2024, driven by consumer demand for innovative and healthy products [12][39]. - The konjac industry is still in its early development stage in China, with significant room for growth compared to Japan, where per capita consumption has declined. The potential for increased per capita consumption in China is expected to rise as the industry matures [27][28].

Investment Strategy - The report suggests gradually increasing risk appetite for thematic trading as June approaches, noting that thematic trading often performs well in June, with high market attention on sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and IP economy [2][8] - The trading strategy is shifting from focusing on individual stocks with unexpected performance to high-growth industries, recommending attention to sectors such as feed, motorcycles, plastics, animal health, and batteries [2][8] June Stock Recommendations 1. **Yinlong Co., Ltd. (603969.SH)**: Expected to achieve over 30% compound annual growth in profits over the next 2-3 years due to the high-end trend in prestressed materials and strong order visibility [9][10] 2. **Cambricon Technologies (688256.SH)**: Anticipated to enter a profit explosion phase, with significant increases in inventory and cash flow indicating strong demand for main chips [11][12] 3. **Yanjing Beer (000729.SH)**: The main product U8 is expected to maintain over 30% growth, supported by seasonal demand and improved market conditions [17][18] 4. **Xintian Green Energy (600956.SH)**: Projected revenue growth driven by stable wind power generation and ongoing expansion in natural gas operations [19][20] 5. **Huaneng International (600011.SH)**: Expected profit growth due to reduced fuel costs and ongoing expansion in renewable energy capacity [23][24] 6. **Salted Fish (002847.SZ)**: Anticipated revenue growth from successful product launches in the konjac category and effective channel expansion strategies [14][15]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rising popularity of konjac products, particularly among young consumers, with significant growth in online engagement and sales expected in 2024 compared to 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2024, the total engagement for "konjac" on platforms like Weibo, Xiaohongshu, Douyin, and Kuaishou increased by 191% compared to 2023, with Q1 2025 engagement reaching about 60% of the total for 2023 [1]. - The konjac snack "Konjac Shuang" has become a major revenue driver for companies like Weilong, contributing to a 59.1% year-on-year revenue growth, reaching 3.37 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 53.79% of total revenue [4]. - Salted Snack Company reported a revenue of 838 million yuan from konjac products in 2024, a 76.09% increase, with konjac jelly pudding contributing 301 million yuan, up 39.1% [5]. Group 2: Product Innovation - Brands like Akwan Foods and Wild Man Diary are innovating by transforming konjac into noodles, dumplings, and rice noodles, thus redefining consumer perceptions of traditional staples [6][8]. - Akwan Foods launched convenient konjac cold noodles and established a sub-brand "Mo Xiaobao" in 2024, while Wild Man Diary's konjac products accounted for about 85% of its 300 million yuan sales in 2024 [8]. Group 3: Consumer Demand - The low-calorie, low-fat, and high-fiber characteristics of konjac align with young consumers' dietary preferences for weight loss, reducing market education costs [7]. - The popularity of "Konjac Shuang" is attributed to its taste and convenience, with consumers appreciating its low-calorie profile compared to traditional snacks [24][28]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The konjac market is becoming increasingly competitive, with brands like Weilong and Salted Snack Company leading the way, holding market shares of 42% and 13% respectively in 2024 [19]. - The introduction of new flavors and product variations by brands is enhancing consumer choice and driving growth in the konjac snack segment [27]. Group 5: Pricing Trends - The price of konjac has doubled in 2024, reaching over 7 yuan per kilogram, driven by reduced supply from major production areas and increased demand from snack and meal replacement sectors [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the konjac industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The konjac industry is recognized as a healthy superfood with broad applications, indicating significant growth potential [15][16] - The konjac snack segment is rapidly growing and has a high degree of market concentration, with leading companies like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi experiencing substantial growth [39][49] Summary by Sections 1. Konjac Industry Overview - Konjac is rich in soluble dietary fiber, beneficial for health, and is recognized as a superfood by the World Health Organization [16] - The internal composition of konjac includes up to 50% glucomannan, which can lower the risk of various diseases [16] - China is the leading producer of konjac and konjac powder, with a significant economic benefit compared to other mountainous crops [26] 2. Konjac Industry Chain Analysis - The konjac industry chain consists of upstream (planting and initial processing), midstream (deep processing), and downstream (various applications) [20] - Upstream konjac has a high yield value, but requires land rotation every three years due to soil depletion [23][24] - Midstream processing focuses on producing different grades of konjac powder, with a strong market for konjac gum [31] 3. Konjac Snacks - The konjac snack market is small but has high growth potential, with a market size exceeding 12 billion yuan in 2024 [42] - Compared to traditional spicy snacks, konjac snacks are healthier and have lower calories, making them appealing to consumers [42] - The competitive landscape is concentrated, with Wei Long holding a 70% market share in the konjac snack segment [49] 4. Key Companies in the Konjac Industry - **YI ZHI Konjac**: Focuses on konjac powder as its core product, with strong market demand and plans for capacity expansion [2] - **Wei Long**: Implements a multi-category strategy, with konjac products expected to become a major revenue driver [3][4] - **Yan Jin Pu Zi**: Known for its rapid growth in the konjac snack segment, leveraging a multi-channel distribution strategy [3][4]

Core Insights - The konjac industry is experiencing significant growth, reshaping the snack food sector as consumer health awareness increases [1][2] - Major snack companies are investing heavily in konjac products, diversifying their offerings beyond traditional spicy snacks to include meal replacements and beverages [1][3] - Despite its growing popularity, the supply of konjac remains unstable, with production concentrated in specific regions of China [1][5] Industry Overview - The konjac market has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% over the past decade, with the market size expected to expand significantly [7][13] - The total market size for konjac products is estimated at 26.9 billion yuan, with the snack segment alone accounting for 18.3 billion yuan [11] - The demand for konjac products is projected to continue rising, driven by health trends and consumer preferences for low-calorie, high-fiber foods [13] Company Developments - Weitong reported a revenue of 6.266 billion yuan in 2024, with a 28.6% year-on-year increase, largely driven by its konjac product line [2] - Salted Fish initiated a "new Chinese snack" strategy, launching the "Big Demon King" brand to capitalize on the konjac trend, with sales growing from 117 million yuan in 2021 to 838 million yuan in 2024 [3] - Companies like Weitong and Salted Fish are expanding their production capabilities and supply chains to meet the increasing demand for konjac products [10][12] Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply of konjac is currently insufficient to meet demand, leading to price volatility; prices for konjac have doubled from 2 yuan per jin in 2023 to 4 yuan per jin in 2024 [8][9] - The domestic konjac production is unable to satisfy the current market needs, prompting companies to source from international suppliers [9][10] - The industry is witnessing a trend towards vertical integration, with companies establishing processing facilities in key production areas to secure raw materials [10][12] Future Trends - The konjac product category is expected to diversify further, with increased industry concentration as more companies enter the market [11][13] - Government support through subsidies and research initiatives is anticipated to bolster the konjac industry, enhancing its status as a key agricultural product [13] - The growing consumer acceptance of konjac products is reflected in rising repurchase rates and average spending on these items [13]

Summary of Salted Fish's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Salted Fish (盐津铺子) - **Industry**: Snack Food Industry Key Points and Arguments 1. **Revenue and Profit Growth**: Salted Fish achieved a revenue growth rate of 32% and a net profit growth rate close to 40%, driven by strong performance in high-potential categories like quail eggs and konjac [2][3][5] 2. **Channel Strategy**: The company has effectively leveraged channel opportunities, with a balanced channel structure: 25% from wholesale, 22% from e-commerce, and coverage in membership stores. This diversified approach has enhanced operational efficiency [2][9][20] 3. **Product Performance**: The "Big Demon King" product has achieved monthly sales exceeding 100 million, setting a record for snack products in China. The explosive growth of quail eggs and konjac is closely linked to upstream supply chain management [2][5][12] 4. **Management and Incentives**: The introduction of experienced executives and a professional management model has provided long-term incentives, driving overall high growth in performance [6] 5. **Market Trends**: The Chinese retail channel has undergone significant changes, creating new opportunities. The rise of discount formats and the need for traditional supermarkets to adapt are notable trends [7][8] 6. **Cost Leadership**: Salted Fish has achieved a unit factory cost significantly below the industry average, supporting its price-performance strategy. The company controls channel markup rates and factory prices to maintain competitive pricing [4][16][17] 7. **Product Development Strategy**: The company focuses on developing products with high growth potential, aligning with health trends and maintaining competitive pricing. Key products include konjac jelly, konjac, and quail eggs [14] 8. **Overseas Market Expansion**: Salted Fish has made significant strides in overseas markets, with 2024 overseas revenue reaching approximately $63 million, and the first quarter of 2025 already matching last year's total [15] 9. **Future Growth Expectations**: The company anticipates over 30% revenue growth driven by the development of wholesale channels and the expansion of the konjac category [20] 10. **Net Profit Margin Outlook**: The net profit margin is expected to steadily improve due to enhanced operational efficiency from product structure optimization [21] 11. **Valuation Level**: Salted Fish's current valuation is around 30 times earnings, reflecting market recognition of its high growth potential in the snack food sector [22] Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Stability**: The company has strategically positioned itself in high-demand categories with unstable supply, ensuring stability in key areas like konjac powder and quail farming [18] - **Fixed Asset Management**: Salted Fish has focused on improving turnover efficiency rather than expanding fixed assets, leading to faster turnover rates compared to peers [19]

Group 1 - The SIAL International Food Exhibition recently held in Shanghai attracted over 5,000 exhibitors from 75 countries and regions, showcasing the latest trends and products in the food and beverage industry [1] - Salted Fish, a leading domestic snack food company, presented several new sweet products at the exhibition, including collaborations with various brands [1] - The Chinese baking market is expected to see a trend towards combining health and taste by 2025, with a shift from "delicious" to "healthy eating" [1] Group 2 - The new products showcased by Salted Fish incorporate multiple technological innovations, such as a new generation of toast production lines and upgraded equipment to enhance flavor and texture [2] - In 2023, Salted Fish initiated a category brand strategy, establishing three business units focused on spicy, sweet, and healthy products, resulting in significant revenue growth [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.89%, and reported a revenue of 1.537 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a 25.69% increase compared to the same period last year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for key players in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing gradual pressure, with a focus on rational targets for 2025. The report emphasizes three main investment lines: leading brands with competitive advantages, high-certainty regional brands, and flexible stocks benefiting from recovery and increased risk appetite [1][2]. - The beer sector shows a slight decline in production, with a 0.6% year-on-year decrease in the first four months of 2025. However, there is potential for recovery in the upcoming peak season, suggesting a favorable investment window [3]. - The report highlights the broad recovery potential in the catering supply space, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved performance and market expansion strategies [4][7]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The industry consensus is shifting towards stable, high-quality growth with a focus on market share rather than aggressive growth targets. Key strategies include product innovation, market penetration, and international expansion [2]. - Major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are focusing on maintaining market stability and enhancing their brand presence among younger consumers [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer production for January to April 2025 was 11.44 million kiloliters, reflecting a slight decline. However, April showed a 4.8% increase in production, indicating potential for recovery [3]. - The beverage sector is characterized by intense competition, but new product launches and recovery in consumer demand are expected to sustain high growth [3]. Catering Supply - The report notes significant opportunities for leading companies in the catering supply sector, particularly with the introduction of new products and expansion into new categories [4][7]. - Companies like Three Squirrels are diversifying their product lines and enhancing their distribution channels to capture more market share [7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has successfully expanded its product categories and channels over the past 20 years, focusing on core products and brand development to drive growth [1][3]. - The retail landscape in China is undergoing rapid transformation, with the company effectively leveraging new channel opportunities to enhance its competitive position [2][3]. - The company has established a strong cost leadership through efficient supply chain management, supporting its high-quality and cost-effective product offerings [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Development - The company has evolved through three key phases: initial establishment focusing on product diversification, a phase of channel expansion through innovative store formats, and a recent shift towards a multi-channel strategy emphasizing core product branding [13][15]. - Revenue has grown significantly from 750 million in 2017 to an expected 5.3 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 32.1% [1][15]. Channel Expansion - The company has adapted to the changing retail environment by embracing new channels such as discount stores and e-commerce platforms, achieving notable operational success in these areas [2][3]. - The introduction of the "Egg Emperor" product in Sam's Club has positioned the company favorably within the competitive landscape [2][3]. Product System - The company is focusing on building category brands to enhance market recognition and drive profitability, with successful launches of products like "Big Demon King" and "Egg Emperor" [3][4]. - The company has achieved a leading position in cost management through raw material control and efficient supply chain practices, which supports its competitive pricing strategy [3][4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.96 billion, 8.63 billion, and 10.24 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 846 million, 1.07 billion, and 1.30 billion [4][5]. - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027 are 31.2%, 24.0%, and 18.7% for revenue, and 32.2%, 26.8%, and 21.5% for net profit [4][5].