Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady growth in performance, with a first-time interim dividend announced, reflecting an increased focus on shareholder returns [2][6]. - Despite industry demand pressures, the company has maintained relatively better sales performance through low-temperature and new product strategies, with significant profit growth expected as it continues to improve profit margins according to its five-year plan [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 474 million yuan, an increase of 24.37% [2][6]. - In Q3 2024, revenue was 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.82% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 177 million yuan, up 22.92% [2][6]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 29.09%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.97%, up 1.19 percentage points [6][7]. Dividend Announcement - The company announced an interim dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.35 yuan per 10 shares (before tax), totaling approximately 30 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 6.36% [6][7]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 11.493 billion yuan, 12.310 billion yuan, and 13.410 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.60%, 7.11%, and 8.94% respectively [7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 558 million yuan, 682 million yuan, and 803 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 29.53%, 22.28%, and 17.65% respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's main business shows steady growth, with product structure optimization leading to an increase in gross margin [4] - The company is focusing on high-end products under the "fresh" strategy, enhancing profitability through regional deepening and increased penetration [3][6] - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit [3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 474 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, but net profit rose by 22.9% to 177 million yuan [3] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 550 million, 650 million, and 770 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.64, 0.75, and 0.89 yuan [3] Business Segment Performance - Q3 revenue decline was primarily due to the sale of "One Yogurt Cow" at the end of 2023, but the main business continues to grow steadily [4] - Low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt categories showed double-digit growth, while ambient products experienced slight declines [4] - The East China region performed well with double-digit growth, while the Western region faced challenges due to the consumption environment and product structure [4] Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin increased by 1.38 percentage points to 6.36% in Q3 2024, mainly due to a 2.40 percentage point increase in gross margin [5] - The improvement in gross margin is attributed to structural optimization and declining raw milk prices [5] - The company expects continued support for gross margin improvement in Q4 due to ongoing declines in raw milk prices and structural enhancements [5] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to cultivate strategic categories centered on low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, focusing on internal growth potential [6] - Emphasis on new product development and promotion, with a target for new product revenue to exceed double digits [6] - The DTC channel is seen as a key growth engine, with plans to expand into emerging channels like snack retail [6]

公司研究 [Table_Title] 主业增长稳健，盈利弹性释放 ——新乳业（002946）2024 年三季报点评 | --- | --- | |--------------|-----------------------------------------| | 2024 | 11 月 03 日 | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 秦一方 S0350523120001 qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | 评级：增持(维持) 最近一年走势 事件: 新乳业发布 2024 年三季报，2024 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 81.94 亿元，同比-0.54%，归母净利润 4.74 亿元，同比+24.4%，扣非归母净 利润 5.07 亿元，同比+29.5%。单 Q3 公司实现营收 27.85 亿元，同比 -3.82%，归母净利润 1.77 亿元，同比+22.9%，扣非归母净利润 1.93 亿 元，同比+19.73%。 投资要点: 主业增长稳健，单 Q3 收入同比下滑主要系剥离一只酸奶牛影响。 公司单 Q3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 470 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company's core categories, particularly low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, continue to grow despite a challenging market environment, driven by its "fresh strategy" [1][2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.4%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in raw milk prices and an improved product mix [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.79 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180 million yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin was 28.8%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a favorable raw milk price environment and a shift towards higher-end products [2]. Strategic Insights - The company is focusing on its "fresh strategy," which emphasizes innovation and brand positioning, leading to growth in its core product categories [1][2]. - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) business is rapidly growing, contributing to market share expansion [1]. Profit Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 560 million yuan, 670 million yuan, and 800 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.0%, 21.4%, and 18.5% [3]. - The projected PE ratios for the same years are 19, 16, and 13 times [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its performance during the off-season, maintaining a high level of profitability. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 470 million yuan, an increase of 24.4% year-on-year [2]. - The low-temperature fresh milk business showed steady growth, reflecting the company's strong operational resilience. The company continued to implement its "Fresh and Sour Dual Strong" strategy, enhancing its market share through improved channel coverage [2][3]. - The decline in raw milk prices and structural optimization contributed to an increase in gross profit margins. The company achieved a gross margin of 29.1% for the first three quarters, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 5.8% [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 550 million yuan, 650 million yuan, and 790 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.4%, 19.0%, and 21.5% [4][7]. - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 16, and 13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][7]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 28.8%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost management and a shift towards higher-end products [3].

1 证券代码：002946 证券简称：新乳业 新希望乳业股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-005 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15 CNY, while the current price is 11.69 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company's main business shows strong growth despite a challenging market environment, with revenue and profit exceeding expectations [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from cost reductions and operational improvements, leading to sustained high growth in earnings [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 8.1 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.54% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 474 million CNY, an increase of 24.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 2.785 billion CNY, down 3.82% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 22.9% to 177 million CNY [1]. - The gross margin improved to 28.8%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost reductions and structural optimization [1]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.63 CNY for 2024, 0.76 CNY for 2025, and 0.89 CNY for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18, 15, and 13 [2][3]. - The company aims for a doubling of net profit margin over the five years from 2023 to 2027 [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically expanding its low-temperature business and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, which are expected to drive revenue growth [2]. - The company has successfully entered strategic partnerships and is adapting to market changes, enhancing its operational capabilities [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.54% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.4% to 474 million yuan [5][6]. - The decline in revenue for Q3 2024 was attributed to weak terminal demand and intense market competition, alongside changes in the consolidation scope due to the sale of a yogurt cow earlier in the year [6][7]. - The company's gross margin improved to 28.83%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to falling raw milk prices [7]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 11.69 yuan - Market capitalization: 9,955 million yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 3.9 - Dividend yield: 1.28% [2][3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.82% year-on-year, with a net profit of 177 million yuan, up 22.9% [5][6]. - The company forecasts net profits of 515 million, 648 million, and 806 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19.6%, 25.9%, and 24.2% [6][8]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 6.36%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights a strategic focus on developing fresh milk business and enhancing profitability through a "1+N" brand matrix and national fresh milk layout [6][7].

证券代码：002946 证券简称：新乳业 公告编号：2024-068 债券代码：128142 债券简称：新乳转债 新希望乳业股份有限公司 关于聘任证券事务代表的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 新希望乳业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）于 2024 年 10 月 29 日召开了第三届董事会第十二次会议，会议审议通过了《关于聘任公司证 券事务代表的议案》，同意聘任王皑女士为公司证券事务代表，协助董事会秘书 履行职责，任期自本次董事会审议通过之日起至本届董事会任期届满之日止。 1 传 真：028-80741011 电子邮箱：002946@newhope.cn 联系地址：成都市锦江区金石路 366 号新希望中鼎国际 邮政编码：610023 附件： 王皑女士：1988 年出生，中国国籍，无境外居留权，香港城市大学应用经 济学硕士研究生，新加坡国立大学概率统计学学士，2020 年加入公司，历任资 金副总监、资金总监，自 2024 年 2 月开始在公司董事会办公室任职。 截至本公告披露日，王皑女士持有公司股份600股，与持有公司5%以上股份 ...

证券代码：002946 证券简称：新乳业 公告编号：2024-063 债券代码：128142 债券简称：新乳转债 会议审议了以下议案，并形成如下决议： 1. 审议通过《关于公司 2024 年第三季度报告的议案》 表决结果为：同意票 9 票，反对票 0 票，弃权票 0 票。 2024年第三季度报告详见公司同日刊登于《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证 券日报》《证券时报》《经济参考报》并披露于巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.c n） 的《2024年第三季度报告》。 新希望乳业股份有限公司 第三届董事会第十二次会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 新希望乳业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）第三届董事会 第十二次会议于 2024 年 10 月 29 日以现场与通讯结合的方式召开，现场会议地 点为成都市锦江区金石路 366 号公司四楼会议室。会议通知于 2024 年 10 月 18 日以邮件方式向公司全体董事、监事、高级管理人员发出，于 2024 年 10 月 25 日以邮件方式向公司全体董事、监事、高 ...