Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [11][36]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 10.99 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 431 million yuan, up 19.27% year-on-year [6][11]. - The company is focusing on its "Fresh Cube" strategy, emphasizing core categories, DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channels, and enhancing management efficiency to drive internal growth and maintain product and brand vitality [11][23]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's gross margin was 26.87%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year, driven by sales scale growth and cost reduction efforts [7]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 3.98% in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.37 percentage points [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.64 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 0.94 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [11][33]. Revenue and Growth Analysis - The liquid milk and dairy products segment generated revenue of 9.83 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 11.16% [21]. - The company plans to focus on low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, with a strategic goal of achieving sustainable revenue growth and improved net profit margins [23]. Cash Flow and Investment - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 1.557 billion yuan, indicating a strong cash generation capability [13]. - The company is expected to continue investing in capital expenditures, with projected capital spending of 776 million yuan in 2023 [13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its strong innovation capabilities to maintain product and brand vitality, with a focus on enhancing its DTC channel and optimizing product structure [11][23]. - The report highlights the company's strategic execution in 2024 as a critical year for driving high-quality growth through its "Fresh Cube" strategy [22][23].

新希望乳业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）近日接到通 知，公司股东新希望投资集团有限公司（以下简称"新投集团"）以公司部分 股票为标的发行的新希望投资集团有限公司2023年面向专业投资者非公开发行 可交换公司债券（第一期）（简称"本期债券"），将于2024年5月14日进入 换股期。有关事项及对公司的影响说明如下： 证券代码：002946 证券简称：新乳业 公告编号：2024-027 债券代码：128142 债券简称：新乳转债 新希望乳业股份有限公司 关于股东非公开发行可交换公司债券进入换股 期的提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 进入换股期后，新投集团所持有的公司股份可能因债券持有人选择换股而 减少。可交换公司债券持有人是否选择换股以及实际换股数量等均存在不确定 性，假设债券持有人持有的可交换公司债券全部用于交换本公司股票（换股数 量占公司目前总股本的4.13%），公司控股股东及实际控制人不会发生变化。 公司将持续关注新投集团所持公司股份可能因债券持有人选择换股而减少 的情况，并督促其及时履行信息披露义务。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.89 CNY, based on a 2024 PE of 20.03 times [13]. Core Insights - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to improved profitability [2]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 10.987 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 431 million CNY, up 19.27% year-on-year [9]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 26.87%, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.38% in Q1 2024, up 2.32 percentage points year-on-year [10]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022: 10,006 - 2023: 10,987 - 2024E: 12,067 - 2025E: 13,097 - 2026E: 14,106 - Revenue Growth Rate (%): - 2022: 11.59% - 2023: 9.80% - 2024E: 9.83% - 2025E: 8.53% - 2026E: 7.71% [3][4]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2022: 361 - 2023: 431 - 2024E: 593 - 2025E: 756 - 2026E: 952 - Net Profit Growth Rate (%): - 2022: 15.68% - 2023: 19.27% - 2024E: 37.74% - 2025E: 27.32% - 2026E: 25.98% [3][4]. Product and Market Performance - The company has seen double-digit growth in low-temperature products, with high-end fresh milk growing nearly 40% year-on-year [12]. - The company’s DTC revenue grew over 15%, with remote e-commerce increasing by over 40% [12]. - New product revenue accounted for 12% of total revenue in 2023, contributing to growth [12].

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 04 月 28 日 证券研究报告•2023年报&2024 年一季报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：9.88 元 新 乳 业（002946）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 五年规划逐步落地，利润弹性延续释放 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2023年报及 2024年一季报，2023年实现营业收入 109.9亿元 （+9.8%），实现归母净利润 4.3 亿元（+19.3%），实现扣非归母净利润 4.6 亿 元（+57.9%）；2024Q1实现营业收入 26.1亿元（+3.7%），实现归母净利润 0.9 亿元（+46.9%）。此外，公司拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 1.50 元（含 税）。 DTC 增速保持领先，24Q1 受并表范围调整增速放缓。1、2023 年液体乳实现 收入 97.6亿元，同比增长 11.2%。公司坚持"鲜酸双强"品类发展策略，产品 迭代快速，2023年新品收入占比达 12%，为后续增长奠定基础。2、分渠道看， 2023 年直营、经销分别实现收入 55.9亿元（+10.2%）、42.5亿元（+12.4%）。 其中 DT ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][19]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its main business, continuing to progress towards its "Five-Year Plan" [2][19]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 10.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 430 million yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year [4][19]. - The company aims to enhance its core business and improve profitability, with a target of doubling net profit over five years [19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other businesses was 9.755 billion, 79 million, and 1.153 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.15%, 11.28%, and -0.53% [6]. - The company reported a gross margin of 26.87% in 2023, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [6][19]. - The net profit margin for 2023 was 3.92%, up 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin excluding non-recurring items was 4.23%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points [6]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 11.647 billion, 12.345 billion, and 13.086 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 540 million, 659 million, and 795 million yuan [19][22]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.62, 0.76, and 0.92 yuan respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 13, and 11 [19][22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [13][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady strategic progress and enhanced profitability, with 2023 revenue reaching 10.987 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.80%, and a net profit of 431 million yuan, adjusted for a year-on-year increase of 19.27% [3][11]. - The company's gross margin improved due to declining raw milk prices and product structure optimization, with gross margins of 26.87% for the full year 2023 and 29.38% for Q1 2024 [3][11]. - The company is actively developing its D2C channels, with revenue from this segment growing over 15% year-on-year [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - 2023 revenue by product: liquid milk 9.755 billion yuan (+11.15%), milk powder 780 million yuan (+11.28%), and other products 1.153 billion yuan (-0.53%) [3]. - Revenue by region in 2023: Southwest 4.095 billion yuan (+9.98%), East China 3.020 billion yuan (+4.80%), Northwest 1.424 billion yuan (-0.97%), North China 1.109 billion yuan (+39.03%), and others 1.339 billion yuan (+14.90%) [3]. - Revenue by channel in 2023: direct sales 5.588 billion yuan (+10.22%) and distribution 4.247 billion yuan (+12.41%), with e-commerce revenue at 880 million yuan (+20.51%) [3]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2024-2025 has been adjusted to 550 million yuan and 663 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 at 742 million yuan [3][12]. - Corresponding EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 0.64, 0.77, and 0.86 yuan, with current P/E ratios of 15, 13, and 11 times [3][12].

公 司 研 究 [数据日期 Table_cominfo] 2024/04/26 收盘价 9.88 总股本(万股) 86,581 流通A股/B股(万股) 84,927/0 资产负债率(%) 70.38% 市净率(倍) 3.21 净资产收益率(加权) 3.50 12个月内最高/最低价 17.49/8.10 公 司 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 姚星辰 S0630523010001 yxc@longone.com.cn 新乳业 沪深300 [新乳业（ Table_NewTitle] 002946）：深化"鲜立方"战 略，盈利水平持续提升 ——公司简评报告 ➢ 事件：4月25日，公司发布2023年年报及2024年一季报，公司2023年营业总收入为109.87 亿元，同比+9.80%，归母净利润为4.31亿元，同比+19.27%，扣非归母净利润4.65亿元， 同比+57.86%。其中，2023年Q4公司营业收入为27.93亿元，同比+10.56%，归母净利润 为0.50亿元，同比-2.09%，扣非归母净利润为0.74亿元，同比+55.64%。2024年Q1公司营 业收入为26.14亿元，同比+3. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company focuses on low-temperature fresh milk, with a 54% year-on-year increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items in Q3 [9]. - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected to be 10.99 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.80% [9]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.61 billion yuan, 7.09 billion yuan, and 8.56 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 30.24%, 26.36%, and 20.78% [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is 10,987.29 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.80% [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is 430.83 million yuan, reflecting a 19.27% increase year-on-year [5]. - The company's gross profit margin for 2023 is 26.87%, up 2.84 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2023 is 16.85% [5]. Business Performance - The liquid milk and milk powder segments showed steady growth, with revenues of 9,755 million yuan and 790 million yuan respectively, both increasing by over 11% year-on-year [9]. - The company’s distribution channels have expanded, with a 42.74% year-on-year increase in distributor revenue in the second half of 2023 [9]. - The company has launched new products, with new product revenue accounting for 12% of total revenue in 2023 [9]. Market Position - The company has maintained a strong market share in the fresh milk segment, with a nearly 40% year-on-year growth in its high-end product line [9]. - The company’s online direct sales revenue increased by 20.51% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in e-commerce channels [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 12.22 billion yuan, 13.48 billion yuan, and 14.73 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 15 in 2024 to 10 in 2026, indicating potential for value appreciation [9].

公 司 研 究 | --- | --- | |-----------------------|---------------------------| | | | | 张宇光（分析师） | 叶松霖（分析师） | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | yesonglin@kysec.cn | | S0790520030003 | 证书编号： S0790521060001 | 2023 年公司净利率同比增 0.3pct 至 3.9%，净利率如期提升。2024Q1 公司净利率 同比增 1.0pct 至 3.43%，净利率提升主因结构升级下毛利率同比增 2.3pct 至 29.4%。2024Q1 销售费用率同比增 1.6pct、管理费用率同比降 0.5pct。展望 2024 年，预计原奶价格仍会平稳略降，公司结构持续优化、原奶成本下行下预计毛利 率可提升；非经常损益预计会有所改善，净利率仍可持续提升。 股价走势图 相关研究报告 公司信息更新报告 特别声明 幅证券 主业稳步增长，净利率持续提升 投资评级：增持（维持） 坚持鲜战略，维持"增持"评级 2024Q1 净利率提升主因毛利率提升 风险提示：宏观经济 ...

研 公 研 究 告 券 ▌ 盈利预测 ▌ 风险提示 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|--------|-------------------------|--------|--------| | 预测指标 | | 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | 主营收入（百万元） | 10,987 | 12,378 | 13,712 | 15,052 | | 增长率（ %） 9.8% | | 12.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 431 | 663 | 822 | 1,008 | | 增长率（ %） 19.2% | | 53.9% | 24.0% | 22.6% | | 摊薄每股收益（元） | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.95 | 1.16 | | ROE（% ） | 16.3% | 22.2% | 24.1% | 25.7% | 证券研究报告 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 3 孙山山：经济学硕士，6 年食品饮料卖方研究经验，全面覆盖食品饮料行业， 聚焦饮料子板块，深度研究白 ...