「2025.10.10」 瑞达期货研究院 焦炭市场周报 会议预期钢材去库，焦企亏损二轮提涨 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 1. 宏观方面，特朗普重启对华贸易战，对中国输美产品加征100%关税，周初商品普遍回落；《求是》杂志评论员文章称，根据 形势变化及时实施精准有力的宏观政策，增强政策可预期性，是引导市场形成积极预期的关键；国家发改委印发《节能降碳中 央预算内投资专项管理办法》，支持钢铁等重点行业节能降碳改造；中钢协召开钢铁工业提质升级座谈会。会议指出，"十五五" 期间国内钢铁需求总体呈波动下降趋势，企业要注意产量调控是向碳排放调控的过渡期和关键期。 2. 海外方面，受特朗普威胁中国加收100%关税影响，短期资金转向美债和黄金；国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布最新一期《世界 经济展望报告》，预计2025年世界经济将增长3.2%，较7月预测上调0.2个百分点。 3. 供需方面，需求端，本期铁 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic factors include Trump restarting the trade war with China, potential for precise macro - policies, support for energy - saving and carbon - reduction in the steel industry, and a predicted decline in domestic steel demand during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. Overseas, short - term funds have shifted to US bonds and gold due to Trump's tariff threats, and the IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025 [6]. - In terms of supply and demand, pre - holiday inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has slightly declined from a high level, and inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 2.1 tons, and iron water production is oscillating at a high level. Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are in the negative, and the mainstream steel procurement pricing is still under negotiation [6]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend. It is expected that after October, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia will increase, and the supply pressure will rise. With the national policy of reducing crude steel production, the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5650 - 5850 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Macro**: Trump restarts the trade war with China, adding 100% tariffs on Chinese products exported to the US, causing a general decline in commodities at the beginning of the week. The state may implement precise macro - policies, and the steel industry is supported in energy - saving and carbon - reduction. The domestic steel demand is expected to decline during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [6]. - **Overseas**: Due to Trump's tariff threats, short - term funds shift to US bonds and gold. The IMF expects the world economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pre - holiday inventory rebounds rapidly, production slightly declines from a high level, and inventory increases for three consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreases by 2.1 tons, and iron water production is at a high level. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 145 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 270 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement pricing is still under negotiation [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: After October, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will rise. With the national policy of reducing crude steel production, the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5650 - 5850 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of October 17, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest is 598,000 lots, an increase of 33,000 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread is 42, an increase of 8 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts are 48,976, a decrease of 5,359. The spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon January contracts is 288, a decrease of 76 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 17, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price is 5530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis is - 168 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 points [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The production of silicon - manganese is at a high level, with the national capacity utilization rate at 43.28%, an increase of 0.09%. The daily average production is 29,830 tons, an increase of 655 tons. The weekly demand of five major steel types for silicon - manganese is 121,113 tons, a decrease of 0.79%, and the weekly supply of national silicon - manganese is 208,810 tons, an increase of 2.25% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, the national silicon - manganese inventory is 262,500 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [32]. - **Upstream**: As of October 17, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port is 34.0 yuan/ton - degree, a slight increase. As of October 13, the electricity price in Ningxia has decreased by 0.01 yuan/kWh, and that in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore is 445.7 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons. The arrival of manganese ore from different countries shows different trends. The silicon - manganese spot profit remains in a loss state [36][41][46]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills is 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons from last week but an increase of 6.59 tons compared to last year. The final pricing of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in September is 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market was suppressed by a bearish sentiment, with rubber prices showing weak performance. The offer price of imported rubber first rose and then fell, and the trading atmosphere in the market was average. The futures market was generally weak, and the trading atmosphere in the domestic natural rubber market was rather dull. Downstream enterprises only maintained a small amount of rigid demand inquiries, and the follow - up of actual orders was insufficient [6]. - Globally, natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, rainfall still affects the supply of rubber sap, but the purchase price remains stable due to the pressure on processing costs. In Hainan, the weather is good, and raw material output is increasing seasonally. The orders and profits of local processing plants have improved, and they continue to increase the purchase price of raw materials. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly decreased compared to before the holiday, with the bonded warehouse showing inventory accumulation and the general trade warehouse showing inventory reduction. In terms of demand, enterprises that had maintenance during the holiday have resumed production as planned, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has significantly increased. However, the overall market has not shown significant improvement, and some enterprises are still flexibly controlling production to manage inventory. It is expected that the operation of enterprise equipment will remain stable in the short term [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,450 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market was bearish this week, with rubber prices weak. Imported rubber offers rose first and then fell, market trading was average, and downstream enterprises had limited demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has less rubber sap supply due to rainfall, while Hainan has normal tapping and increasing raw material output. Qingdao Port's total inventory decreased slightly, with bonded warehouses accumulating and general trade warehouses reducing inventory. Demand has recovered, but the overall market has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are controlling production [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,500 - 15,200, and the nr2512 contract between 12,000 - 12,450 [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 4.05% this week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber fell by 1.09% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided in the summary about position changes. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of October 17, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 10, and the spread between 20 - rubber 11 - 12 was 50 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 16, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 136,630 tons, a decrease of 7,760 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 40,119 tons, a decrease of 1,210 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of October 16, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of October 16, the 20 - rubber basis was 886 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - **Upstream**: In Thailand, as of October 17, the price of field latex was 54.1 (+0.2) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 50.2 (-0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of October 14, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 14.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.9 US dollars/ton from last week. In China, as of October 16, the price of Yunnan rubber sap was 13,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 13,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [40][43]. - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 520,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.1214 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.47% [46]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 500 tons, a decrease of 0.11%. The bonded area inventory was 70,800 tons, an increase of 2.02%; the general trade inventory was 385,200 tons, a decrease of 0.49%. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses increased by 3.74 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.40 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 4.11 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.91 percentage points [50]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Export Volume**: In August 2025, China's tire export volume was 769,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year increase of 2.49%. From January to August, China's cumulative tire export volume was 5.703 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.98% [57]. - **Domestic Demand**: In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [60].

Market Overview - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 2.68% on October 17, with Hainan Huate leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12688.94, down 3.04% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included *ST Rindong, which rose by 4.38% to a closing price of 6.91, and Bohai Leasing, which increased by 1.78% to 3.44 [1] - Hainan Huate saw the largest decline, dropping 6.96% to a closing price of 7.09, with a trading volume of 3.57 million shares and a transaction value of 2.50 billion [2] - Other significant decliners included Sichuan Shuangma (-5.82%), State Grid Yingda (-4.77%), and Sinopec Capital (-4.72%) [2] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 666 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 602 million [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that Bohai Leasing had a net inflow of 85.51 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 21.25 million from speculative funds [3] - The overall trend shows a mixed capital flow, with institutional investors withdrawing while retail investors remained active in the market [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall situation of the rapeseed industry is affected by multiple factors including trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and international market trends. For rapeseed meal, it is expected to remain weakly volatile, and for rapeseed oil, it will continue the de - stocking mode, but short - term observation is needed [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9935 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2364 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed was 633 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.4 Canadian dollars, and that of the active contract of rapeseed was 5255 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 441 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 58 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 287,961 lots, down 8681 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 354,755 lots, down 7176 lots. The net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions of rapeseed oil was 15,423 lots, up 445 lots; that of rapeseed meal was - 84,324 lots, up 2250 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil was 7590 sheets, unchanged; that for rapeseed meal was 8699 sheets, down 390 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,263.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 7541.12 yuan/ton, up 42.32 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 235 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 86 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8540 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 5 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 3.73%, down 1.6% [2]. 4. Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 6 million tons, down 1.67 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, down 1.53 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 50.9 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 27.9 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 2.8 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 22.5 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.22 million tons, down 2.96 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.09 million tons, down 1.32 million tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2927.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 450.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly value of social consumer goods retail sales in the catering industry was 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 6. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.57%, up 0.32%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.56%, up 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.23%, up 0.01%; that of at - the - money put options was 14.23%, up 0.01% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 23.6%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 25.05%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.39%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.91%, up 0.02% [2]. 7. Industry News - On October 15th, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by technical buying and the strong trend of the US soybean oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures rose 4.80 Canadian dollars to settle at 620.40 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January futures rose 4.20 Canadian dollars to settle at 634.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - In the US, the harvest in the Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts the market price. The US government shutdown leads to a lack of data and market caution [2]. 8. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Internationally, the US soybean export pressure remains due to the lack of progress in Sino - US trade relations. The high - yield of Canadian rapeseed is basically realized, which puts pressure on its price. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal is expected to remain weakly volatile [2]. 9. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Internationally, Indonesia's plan to increase biodiesel to B50 next year is positive for the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory has increased for seven consecutive months. Domestically, the initial ruling on anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is out, and the import of rapeseed is expected to be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, but the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil. The short - term trend needs to be observed [2]. 10. Key Points of Attention - Monitor the rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory data from myagricultural.com on Mondays, as well as the Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2].

Report Summary - Industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: SH2601 showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend, closing at 2438 yuan/ton. During the holiday, the operating loads of plants in North and Northwest China decreased, leading to a narrow decline in caustic soda capacity utilization. Alumina profit continued to shrink, but the device operation was relatively stable with little change in capacity utilization. Last week, the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing changed slightly. During the holiday, some downstream industries took holidays and stopped work, resulting in a significant accumulation of liquid caustic soda factory inventories and high inventory pressure. This week, there are maintenance expectations for plants in North and East China, which may partially relieve the industry's supply pressure. Downstream alumina enterprises have no large - scale production reduction plans, and the short - term caustic soda consumption demand is not expected to shrink significantly. Non - aluminum downstream lacks signals of demand improvement and is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. After the holiday, as some non - aluminum industries resume work, the inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda factories may be relieved. New alumina plants will be put into operation from the fourth quarter of this year to early next year, giving an improvement expectation for the far - end supply and demand. However, the high number of warehouse receipts still suppresses the futures price. The market digested the impact of the Sino - US trade dispute, and industrial products opened lower and moved higher with mixed gains and losses on the day. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate. Technically, pay attention to the low - level support around 2404 and the pressure of the 10 - day moving average around 2491 [3] Data Summary Futures market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main contract position was 111822 lots, up 812 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 1846 lots, up 2686 lots; the main contract trading volume was 256622 lots, down 72390 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2438 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2539 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] Spot market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2593.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 156 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3] Upstream situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest China was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Downstream situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2865 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] Industry News Summary - From October 3rd to 9th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7% [3] - From October 4th to 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina increased by 0.14% week - on - week to 86.32%; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.19% to 89.63%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 0.47% to 66.63% [3] - As of October 9th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda sample factories with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56% [3] - From October 9th to 11th, the average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 341 yuan/ton [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | | 沪锌产业日报 | | 2025-10-15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 22015 | -205 10-11月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -70 | -50 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) 2953.5 | -58.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 210731 | 675 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) 3063 | -4649 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 65666 | 7172 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) 106950 | 8940 LME库存(日,吨) | 38600 | 1125 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) 22010 | -200 长江有色 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 塑料产业日报 2025-10-15 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 及往年水平。市场消化中美贸易争端影响，近期国际油价低位震荡整理，日内工业品低开高走、涨跌互现 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 。短期L2601预计震荡走势，区间预计在6860-6960附近。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6910 | -8 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6910 | -8 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The President of Indonesia ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, which may exacerbate the shortage of tin ore supply; the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and short - term supply shows signs of improvement, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows [3] - In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level [3] - On the demand side, the sharp rise in tin prices has suppressed spot transactions. Most downstream enterprises are in a wait - and - see state and only make purchases based on strict rigid demand. Traders tend to sell at high prices, resulting in restricted overall transactions [3] - Social inventories have decreased, and the spot premium has rebounded to 400 yuan/ton; LME inventories are decreasing, and the spot premium is stable. Technically, with a decrease in positions and a fall in prices, attention should be paid to the 28 support level. It is recommended to wait and see for now, or try to go long with a light position on pullbacks, focusing on the 28 - 29 range [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 281,710 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai tin is 180 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 35,290 US dollars/ton, down 460 US dollars; the position volume of the main Shanghai tin contract is 28,565 lots, down 761 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 1,533 lots, down 829 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 2,385 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 5,879 tons, down 550 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 190 tons, down 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 5,677 tons, up 50 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 281,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 282,070 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [3] - The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 10 yuan/ton, down 1,580 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 113 US dollars/ton, down 7.01 US dollars [3] - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 10,300 tons, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 182,630 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, unchanged; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,109,300 tons, up 144,800 tons [3] Industry News - Li Qiang chaired a symposium of economic experts and entrepreneurs, emphasizing counter - cyclical regulation, expanding domestic demand, and building an industrial ecosystem [3] - Powell left the door open for Fed rate cuts, saying the outlook has not changed much since the September meeting, employment downside risks are significant, and the Fed may be close to stopping balance - sheet reduction [3] - Fed Governor Bowman expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, and the current more significant risk lies in employment. The Fed is promoting a phased reform proposal for the stress - testing process [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, forecasting that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the July forecast, and maintain the 2026 growth forecast at 3.1%. The IMF also slightly raised the economic growth forecasts of the United States for this year and next by 0.1 percentage points and kept China's economic growth forecast for this year at 4.8% [3]

| | | 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 沪镍产业日报 2025-10-15 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 格震荡，多空交投分歧，关注12万关口支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或区间轻仓操作。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121180 | 350 10-11月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -170 | 170 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15104 | -76 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 68681 | -4426 | | | 期货前20名持 ...