Report Summary of Precious Metals Industry Daily (July 22, 2025) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The core driver of this round of gold price rebound is the simultaneous decline of the US dollar and US Treasury yields due to uncertainties in US fiscal and politics, and the persistent trade uncertainties brought by the approaching deadline of US - EU tariff negotiations on August 1st. The "tariff countdown" may become the main trading theme for gold in the near term. The expected high - level tariffs and the non - extension stance of the White House suppress corporate profits and risk assets, heighten concerns about potential inflation and growth impairment in the US, weaken the demand for the US dollar, and boost the safe - haven demand for gold. [3] - Market interpretations of the Fed's policy path are divided. After the release of the latest data, investors are reducing dovish bets, resulting in a "downward interest - rate trend with a slower pace" environment, which maintains the relative return of holding gold. [3] - The recent strong performance of silver has significantly repaired the gold - silver ratio compared to the beginning of the year. The tight supply situation of silver for semiconductor industry use and inventory may continue to support its potential for further repair. [3] - The US - EU tariff situation remains highly uncertain. The continuous impact of tariff risks and tax - cut bills enhances the safe - haven property of gold, and the gold price center may continue to rise. The market's bets on a Fed rate cut in September are relatively stable. The expectation of rate cuts and accelerating inflation may push down the real yield of US Treasuries, potentially benefiting the gold price. For investment, a strategy of buying gold on dips is recommended, while short - term callback risks for silver should be noted. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 784.84 yuan/gram, up 3.14 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9393 yuan/kg, up 122 yuan. [3] - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 216,722 lots, an increase of 5,483 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 476,010 lots, an increase of 8,476 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 152,454 lots, an increase of 4,916 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract was 137,092 lots, an increase of 2,059 lots. [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 28,857 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,199,046 kg, a decrease of 5,420 kg. [3] 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 781.5 yuan/gram, up 5.8 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9314 yuan/kg, up 114 yuan. [3] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 3.34 yuan/gram, up 2.66 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 79 yuan/kg, down 8 yuan. [3] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holding was 947.06 tons, an increase of 3.44 tons; the silver ETF holding was 15,005.79 tons, an increase of 347.58 tons. [3] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 213,115 contracts, an increase of 10,147 contracts; the weekly non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC was 59,448 contracts, an increase of 927 contracts. [3] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces. [3] 3.4 Option Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.25%, up 0.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.21%, down 0.29%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for gold was 18.95%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for gold was 18.95%, down 0.29%. [3] 3.5 Industry News - International rating agency Fitch downgraded the outlook for 25% of the US industry in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates. [3] - The latest estimate by a US congressional analysis agency shows that the "OBBBA" bill passed by the Trump administration will increase the US government's fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. [3] - US Treasury Secretary Besent criticized the Fed's "panic propaganda" about tariffs, stating that tariffs have had little inflationary effect so far, and emphasized the need to review the Fed's performance, while indicating that the Trump administration focuses more on the quality of trade agreements than time nodes. [3] - EU may hold a meeting this week to formulate contingency plans for the scenario of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool" for the first time. As the August 1st deadline for US - EU tariff negotiations approaches, Trump has taken a tougher stance. [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 41.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 57.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.5%. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2510 contract increased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, steel enterprises in central and western regions strengthen self - discipline in production control, meeting the requirements of breaking the "involution" put forward by the central government and enhancing industry self - discipline. There are positive expectations for supply, and combined with the strong upward movement of furnace materials, the cost side supports the relatively strong operation of rebar futures prices. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continues to decline, and the capacity utilization rate drops to 45.83%; the apparent demand for rebar declines, and the total inventory ends its continuous decline. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at a high level. The operation suggestion is to conduct bullish trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,307.00 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan; the position volume of the RB main contract is 2,024,507 lots, down 71,405 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 24,665 lots, down 19,656 lots; the spread between the RB10 - 1 contract is - 60 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,534 tons, unchanged. The spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract is 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,420.00 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight, yuan/ton) is 3,508 yuan, up 51 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,450.00 yuan, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight, yuan/ton) is 3,330.00 yuan, up 50 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 113.00 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 30.00 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 783.00 yuan/wet ton, down 6.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price; yuan/ton) is 1,265.00 yuan, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (ex - tax, yuan/ton) is 2,240.00 yuan, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 3,120.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 137.8521 million tons, up 193,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 554,200 tons, down 43,500 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3909 million tons, up 11,200 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.0362 million tons, up 60,900 tons. The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills is 83.48%, up 0.35 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.92%, up 1.05 percentage points [2] 3.4产业情况 - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 2.0906 million tons, down 76,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 45.83%, down 1.66 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.731 million tons, down 77,800 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.7016 million tons, up 106,700 tons. The operation rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 63.54%, up 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel is 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 1.688 million tons, up 30,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The national real estate climate index is 93.60, down 0.11. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment completion is 2.80%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion is - 11.20%, down 0.50 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 4.60%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.33321 billion square meters, down 83.02 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 303.64 million square meters, down 71.81 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing is 408.21 million square meters, up 4.43 million square meters [2] 3.6行业消息 - In June, the total export volume of domestic steel billets was 1.1757 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.33% and a year - on - year increase of 280.19%. From January to June, the total export volume of domestic steel billets was 5.8922 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 300.31%. On the morning of July 19, the groundbreaking ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held in Nyingchi City, Tibet Autonomous Region. The project will build 5 cascade hydropower stations with a total investment of about 12 trillion yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - For soybeans (domestic): The current oversupply situation persists, limiting the upside potential. The downstream market is expected to start the back - to - school season stocking after mid - August, which may drive a new round of market trends [2]. - For soybeans (imported): There is a lack of new speculative themes. The decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans is offset by the expected rainfall, which eases the impact of high temperatures on crops, leading to a price correction [2]. - For soybean meal: Internationally, the US soybean is expected to be strong due to weather and bio - fuel policies. Domestically, the increase in import costs and the high - cost performance of low - price soybean meal in July may lead to increased purchases by feed enterprises. However, the abundant supply will limit the price increase [2][3]. - For soybean oil: Internationally, the US bio - fuel policy boosts demand, and the market focuses on weather during the key growing season. Domestically, there is inventory accumulation, a continuous decline in basis, and weak market supply and demand due to the seasonal off - season and poor terminal demand [2][3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing prices of domestic futures contracts for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil showed different trends, with soybean meal up 17 yuan/ton and soybean oil down 16 yuan/ton. CBOT soybean and soybean meal prices decreased, while CBOT soybean oil prices increased [2]. - Position volume: The position volume of domestic futures contracts for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil also had various changes, with the position volume of soybean meal decreasing by 34,462 hands and that of soybean oil decreasing by 14,497 hands [2]. - Net long positions: The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil had different changes, with the net long position of soybean meal increasing by 17,212 hands [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil all decreased, with soybean meal decreasing by 463 hands and soybean oil decreasing by 423 hands [2]. Spot Price - Domestic soybean price remained unchanged at 3,960 yuan/ton, and soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang increased by 20 yuan/ton to 2,920 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil in different regions decreased, with the price in Rizhao down 60 yuan/ton to 8,150 yuan/ton [2]. - Import costs: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans increased by 79 yuan/ton to 3,896 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans increased by 23 yuan/ton to 3,477 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and inventory: US soybean production decreased by 0.14 million tons to 117.98 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 0.41 million tons to 8.44 million tons. Brazilian production remained unchanged at 175 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 39.96 million tons [2]. - Export and inspection: The weekly inspection volume of US soybeans decreased by 8,942 thousand bushels to 5,426 thousand bushels, and the weekly export volume decreased by 119,457 tons to 276,415 tons. Brazilian monthly exports increased by 470,000 tons to 14.99 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory and开工率: The port inventory of imported soybeans decreased by 16,500 tons to 6,659,650 tons, the weekly inventory of soybean meal increased by 63,800 tons to 886,200 tons, and the national port inventory of soybean oil increased by 24,000 tons to 932,000 tons. The weekly oil - mill开工率 decreased by 1.04 percentage points to 64.52%, and the weekly oil - mill crushing volume decreased by 36,800 tons to 2,295,400 tons [2]. - Price difference: The soybean - palm oil price difference decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 780 yuan/ton, the rapeseed - soybean oil price difference decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 1,300 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference increased by 1.05 yuan/ton to 193.16 yuan/ton [2]. - Trading volume: The weekly trading volume of oil - mill soybean meal decreased by 5,909 tons to 668,700 tons, and the weekly trading volume of oil - mill soybean oil increased by 24,600 tons to 108,300 tons [2]. - Profit: The daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang increased by 12.5 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton, and the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu increased by 11.9 yuan/ton to 78.05 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: China's total domestic soybean consumption increased by 5.1 million tons to 126.8 million tons, and China's food consumption of soybean oil increased by 900 thousand tons to 18,800 thousand tons [2]. - Livestock: The price of live pigs in Beijing decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 14.52 yuan/kg, and the weekly expected profit of pig farming increased by 3.48 yuan/head to 62.02 yuan/head. The monthly production of feed increased by 981,000 tons to 27,621,000 tons, the monthly pig inventory decreased by 1,012,000 heads to 41,731,000 heads, and the monthly inventory of breeding sows increased by 40,000 heads to 4,042,000 heads [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal increased by 2.28 percentage points to 16.7%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for soybean meal increased by 2.26 percentage points to 16.69%. The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal decreased by 0.43 percentage points to 12.78%, and the 60 - day historical volatility increased by 0.02 percentage points to 11.74% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 17, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 364,990 tons, higher than the market expectation of 200,000 - 400,000 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons [2]. - In the soybean planting area, the temperature in most parts of Northeast China is slightly higher, and the soil moisture is suitable, with overall good growth conditions. The market quotes in the inland areas are stable with a slight downward trend [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall trend of domestic meal products is stronger than the external market, and rapeseed meal maintains a relatively strong operation. The short - term supply of rapeseed oil is loose, and the inventory pressure of oil mills is high, but the output pressure is weakening, and the long - term pressure may decline. The short - term volatility of rapeseed oil has increased recently [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9477 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The main contract positions of rapeseed oil decreased by 16433 hands to 225053 hands, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions decreased by 6123 hands to 8538 hands. The main contract positions of rapeseed meal were 551501 hands, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions increased by 5316 hands to 40412 hands. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 691 Canadian dollars/ton, down 7.9 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5133 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9700 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 4948.85 yuan/ton, down 48.56 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio was 3.6, up 0.01 [2] Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume was 18.45 tons, a decrease of 15.1 tons. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 15 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed was 15.72%, an increase of 5.86 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 tons, an increase of 10 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 tons, an increase of 4.13 tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.25 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.2 tons, a decrease of 0.31 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 58.45 tons, a decrease of 0.82 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 35.13 tons, a decrease of 2.91 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 5.6 tons, a decrease of 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 27 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons. The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil was 2.91 tons, a decrease of 0.38 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal was 2.32 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2762.1 tons, an increase of 98.1 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 tons, a decrease of 87 tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4578.2 billion yuan, an increase of 411.2 billion yuan [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.06%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 22.06%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 16.6%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.18%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.24%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.24%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.14%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 12.75%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points [2] Industry News - On July 21st, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to good weather in the Canadian prairies, but commercial pricing supported the market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract closed down 6.20 Canadian dollars at 694.10 Canadian dollars per ton. As of the week ending July 20th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71%, 70% in the previous week, and 68% in the same period last year [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The hot weather in the Canadian plains has decreased this week, and there has been favorable rainfall, which has brought some pressure to the market. The arrival of the peak season for aquaculture has increased the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal has weakened the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure from the supply of soybean meal, but the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support for the forward market [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The MPOB report shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased by 2.41% to 2.03 million tons at the end of June, and high - frequency data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia increased from July 1st - 15th, while exports declined, which restricts the palm oil price. The supply of domestic vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills remains high, which continues to restrict the market price. However, the reduction in the oil mill startup rate has significantly weakened the output pressure of rapeseed oil. The resumption of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade may increase supply, and recently, rapeseed oil has been weaker than soybean and palm oil, with increased short - term fluctuations [2] Key Points to Watch - The startup rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The styrene market shows a situation of weak reality versus strong expectations. The EB2509 daily K - line should pay attention to the pressure around 7560 yuan/ton. The domestic styrene is still in a high - production state. With the impact of restarting devices expanding this week, production and capacity utilization are expected to rise slightly. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The profits of downstream "three S" products have been repaired due to the decline in styrene prices, but the high inventory of "three S" finished products is difficult to reduce. The total styrene inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the difficulty of inventory reduction increases. In terms of cost, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to remain loose, providing limited support [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures is 7481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 401499 lots, an increase of 64988 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders are 356805 lots, a decrease of 17918 lots. The net long positions are - 21917 lots, an increase of 479 lots. The short positions of the top 20 holders are 378722 lots, a decrease of 18397 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 0 lots, a decrease of 7245 lots. The closing price of the October contract is 7426 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7856 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea middle price is 911.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 14.5 dollars/ton. The CFR China middle price is 921.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 14.5 dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China are 7750 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), 7670 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton), 7525 yuan/ton, and 7560 yuan/ton (up 120 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The middle prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf are 821 dollars/ton (unchanged), 831 dollars/ton (unchanged), 815 dollars/ton (up 2.5 dollars/ton), and 457 dollars/ton (down 6 dollars/ton) respectively. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), US Gulf (FOB), and Rotterdam (FOB) are 737.5 dollars/ton, 284 cents/gallon (down 2 cents/gallon), and 768 dollars/ton respectively. The market prices of pure benzene in South, East, and North China are 5950 yuan/ton (unchanged), 6010 yuan/ton (up 65 yuan/ton), and 5860 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene production rate is 78.3%, a decrease of 0.91%. The national styrene inventory is 208319 tons, a decrease of 1376 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port is 15.07 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons. The trade inventory in the East China main port is 5.62 tons, an increase of 1.12 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 53.18% (up 2.12%), 65.9% (up 0.9%), 50.6% (down 0.5%), 28% (down 1%), and 73.08% (unchanged) respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, China's styrene factory production was 35.87 tons, a decrease of 0.41 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%. The factory capacity utilization rate was 78.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.91%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 23.75 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons compared with the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.45%. As of July 17th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 20.83 tons, a decrease of 0.14 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% [2].

铁矿石产业链日报 2025/7/22 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 823.00 | +14.00↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 619,902 | -43544↓ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 29.5 | -3.00↓ I 合约前20名净持仓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, with significant pressure from the newly - opened production of hens supplemented earlier, resulting in sufficient egg supply. In the high - temperature and high - humidity climate, the egg storage cost increases, and downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing, keeping egg prices at a relatively low level compared to the same period. However, after the price reaches a relatively low level, the process of old hen culling accelerates, reducing the inventory expectation. Also, due to the continuous high temperature in many parts of the country, the egg - laying rate of hens in some areas has declined, alleviating the short - term market supply pressure. With the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the farmers' expectation of price increase is released, which promotes the low - level rebound of egg prices. From the perspective of the futures market, boosted by the stabilization and rebound of the spot market, the decline of the futures market has slowed down, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 3621 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 15 yuan compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26705 hands, a decrease of 9586 hands. The egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is 4 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 15 yuan. The futures trading volume of the active contract is 252239 hands, an increase of 7374 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 hands, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.27 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan. The basis (spot - futures) is - 350 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 44 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 111.91 (with 2015 = 100), an increase of 1.02. The national culled laying hen index is 104.09 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 4.59. The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 3.88 yuan/chick, a decrease of 0.02 yuan. The national new - hatched chick index is 76.07 (with 2015 = 100), a decrease of 30.71. The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, unchanged. The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.47 yuan/hen, an increase of 0.22 yuan. The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 9.6 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan. The national average age of culled hens is 501 days, a decrease of 5 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.06 yuan. The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan. The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.26 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.31 yuan. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.13 days. The weekly inventory in the production link is 0.95 days, a decrease of 0.1 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, a decrease of 110.81 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7886 tons, an increase of 289 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.49 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.15 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan compared to the previous day; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.60 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.26 yuan compared to the previous day [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. The electrolytic aluminum market may face stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with the influence of the consumption off - season intensifying. The casting aluminum alloy market is likely to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory gradually accumulating [2]. - For all three markets (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and casting aluminum alloy), the technical analysis shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis with converging red columns. The recommended trading strategy is to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,513 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,641 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars. The spreads of some contracts changed, such as the spread of the Shanghai Aluminum current - next month contract increasing by 10 yuan to 65 yuan, while the alumina current - next month contract spread decreased by 24 yuan to 0 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 13,990 hands to 330,897 hands, while the alumina main contract position decreased by 9,904 hands to 211,644 hands. LME aluminum inventories increased by 3,725 tons to 434,425 tons, and Shanghai Aluminum's SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons to 108,822 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price was 20,940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of casting aluminum alloy decreased by 740 yuan to - 30 yuan, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 280 yuan to 100 yuan. The basis of alumina decreased by 203 yuan to - 176 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production was 774.93 million tons per month, with a national alumina start - up rate of 79.61% and a capacity utilization rate of 80.93% (down 1.17 percentage points) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 23.83 million tons to 696.19 million tons per month, and the alumina supply - demand balance increased by 52.40 million tons to 27.14 million tons per month [2]. - **Trade**: China's imports of aluminum scrap and waste decreased by 4,084.65 tons to 155,616.27 tons per month, and exports decreased by 8.11 tons to 64.33 tons per month. Alumina exports decreased by 4 million tons to 17 million tons per month, and imports increased by 3.38 million tons to 10.13 million tons per month [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.50 million tons to 4,520.70 million tons per month, the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons to 587.37 million tons per month, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons per month [2]. - **Trade**: The import of primary aluminum decreased by 30,781 tons to 192,314.50 tons per month, and the export decreased by 12,523.35 tons to 19,570.72 tons per month. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons per month, and the export of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons per month [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy increased by 2.40 million tons to 166.90 million tons per month, and the production of automobiles increased by 16.66 million vehicles to 280.86 million vehicles per month. The national housing climate index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 0.08 percentage points to 10.04%, the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01 percentage points to 10.10%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money increased by 0.0233 percentage points to 11.38%, and the put - call ratio increased by 0.0486 to 1.13 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fiscal policy in the second half of 2025 is expected to continue to support consumption and investment, and market institutions expect a further decline in LPR [2]. - Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorated" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [2]. 3.8 Market Views and Suggestions - **Alumina**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is stable. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is stable, and the demand is temporarily weak. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly stronger volatile manner [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly stronger volatile manner [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market is affected by various factors. The supply side shows an increasing trend in capacity utilization, with previous production - cut and shutdown devices gradually resuming. The demand side has different performances in different downstream industries, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The caustic soda market trend is strong due to policy - expected benefits [3]. - The capacity utilization rate is expected to maintain an upward trend, but the limited downstream receiving capacity of liquid chlorine may affect the profit of chlor - alkali and restrict the increase in the operating rate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2658 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 89; the futures holding volume is 208,451 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 18,042; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 12,439 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 272; the futures trading volume is 1,029,619 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 157,211 [3]. - The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2699 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 143; the closing price of the May contract is 2763 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 140 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10; in Jiangsu, it is 910 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2593.75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.25; the basis of caustic soda is - 64 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 89 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, with no change; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. - The price of steam coal is 637 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 100; in Jiangsu, it is - 225 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 50 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,940 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price of alumina is 3160 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% [3]. - As of July 17th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 383,900 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.78% [3]. - Affected by the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity in ten key industries, the main industrial products rose during the day, with SH2509 rising 3.95% to close at 2658 yuan/ton [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise, with some devices in the Northwest and Central China planning to shut down this week, and the impact of previously restarted devices expanding [3]. - On the demand side, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.33% to 83.61%, with an average profit of 360.7 yuan/ton; the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 6.75% to 84.55%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 remained stable at 58.9% [3]. - In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.56% to 383,900 tons last week, with no significant inventory pressure [3]. - Some devices in Shandong are still in the process of recovery, but the limited receiving capacity of liquid chlorine downstream may affect chlor - alkali profits and restrict the increase in the operating rate [3]. - The operating capacity of domestic alumina remains at a high level, with an increase in the amount sent to the main downstream by caustic soda plants; the off - season demand of non - aluminum downstream is weak, mainly with rigid demand, and some enterprises resist high prices [3]. - Affected by the positive policy expectation, the caustic soda futures trend is strong [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core View - The current raw material procurement in the production areas is basically over, with cold storage goods being the main trading items and general inquiry and purchasing. Short - term drought in Henan has raised concerns about a new - season yield reduction, the amount of imported rice remains low, and the willingness of holders to support the price of high - quality cold - storage peanuts has increased, but the demand side is cautious in purchasing. Later, continue to pay attention to the rainfall forecast in the production areas. New peanuts in Jiangxi and Hubei are expected to be launched around early August, and focus on the opening price of new peanuts. As time passes and a small amount of new peanuts are launched, pay attention to the shipment of old peanuts and the change in the mentality of holders [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Peanut main contract closing price is 8140 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; trading volume is 69,637 lots, up 22,366 lots; open interest is 94,845 lots, up 836 lots; exchange warehouse receipts are 0 lots. The net position of the top 20 in peanut futures is - 15,713 lots, up 483 lots [2] Spot Market - The main circulation price of oil - using peanuts is 7566.7 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national average price of peanuts is 8700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of imported Sudan refined rice is 8350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan common peanuts is 8900 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong common peanuts is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - China's peanut production estimate is 19 million tons, down 217,000 tons; global peanut production forecast is 51.78 million tons, up 1.08 million tons. China's peanut harvest area estimate is 4.85 million hectares, down 130,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of sample oil mills is 4.63%, up 0.42 percentage points; the import volume of peanut kernels is 27,770 tons, up 13,110 tons; the peanut inventory of sample oil mills is 111,410 tons, down 5160 tons; the export volume of peanut kernels is 14,550 tons, down 2960 tons. The peanut oil processing profit in Henan is 110 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 121 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan. The global peanut ending inventory forecast is 4.22 million tons, up 280,000 tons; the global peanut crushing volume forecast is 19.28 million tons, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The ex - factory price of first - grade peanut oil is 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade fragrant peanut oil is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import volume of peanut oil is 38,616.85 tons, up 9747.48 tons; the export volume of peanut oil is 876.02 tons, up 211.25 tons. The price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil in Shandong is 6360 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong is 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The peanut oil - meal ratio is 4.36, unchanged. The annual forecast of peanut oil production is 3,491,600 tons, unchanged; the global peanut oil production forecast is 6.29 million tons, unchanged; the global domestic consumption forecast of peanut oil is 6.25 million tons, unchanged [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 8.5%, up 0.48 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 10.72%, up 0.06 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 11.45%, up 0.95 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.45%, up 0.95 percentage points [2] Industry News - Peanut prices in different regions are reported, including Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, and Jilin. The raw material procurement in the production areas is basically over, with cold - storage transactions dominating. Short - term drought in Henan causes concerns about new - season yield reduction, and the import volume of rice is still low. Holders of cold - storage high - quality peanuts are more willing to support prices, but the demand side is cautious in purchasing [2] Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the rainfall forecast in the production areas, the opening price of new peanuts in Jiangxi and Hubei in early August, the shipment of old peanuts, and the change in the mentality of holders [2]