Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic demand for sugar is recovering, and the price of sugar futures in China is stronger than that in the international market. With multiple factors at play, the overall sugar price is expected to move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 334,160 lots, down 2,993 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 21,359, down 78; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -2,538 lots [2]. - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,583 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,644 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons; the monthly sugar export volume from Brazil is 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for sugar is 8.38%, an increase of 2.22 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 5.26%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.02%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Brazil exported 2.34472471 million tons of sugar in the first half of July, with an average daily export volume of 167,480.34 tons, a 2% increase compared to the average daily export volume in July last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The polysilicon futures market saw a daily limit today, mainly due to the rising coal and energy prices, which led to an increase in costs. Meanwhile, the photovoltaic industry has been a major focus in the anti - involution conference, resulting in a significant increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and inventory levels, if enterprises resume production and the downstream cannot absorb the high - priced products, a negative feedback loop may form. It is advised to wait and see or consider buying put options instead of chasing the high prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 49,105 yuan/ton, with a change of 3,445 yuan. The price difference between August and September was 225 yuan, a decrease of 175 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 192,179 lots, an increase of 20,122 lots. The price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 39,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,050 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,810 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding type polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,655 yuan/ton, an increase of 395 yuan. The spot price was 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly production was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons. The monthly export volume was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons. The monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, an increase of 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.98 US dollars. The monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of solar cells was 6.7386 million kilowatts, a decrease of 318,300 kilowatts. The average daily price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, a decrease of 14,424,120 units. The monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, a decrease of 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, an increase of 4.34 [2]. Industry News - The deputy director of the National Data Bureau stated that the bureau will promote the market - oriented reform of data elements and the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative. In the polysilicon industry, the overall production of polysilicon enterprises increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some undergoing maintenance. The self - disciplined production reduction measures did not cause significant fluctuations in production capacity. The demand side was affected by the anti - involution conference, with a significant decline in production capacity but a gradual recovery in price. The production schedule of downstream photovoltaic modules has been adjusted down, and the demand has weakened marginally [2]. - The National Energy Administration issued a notice on verifying coal production to ensure stable coal supply [2]. 观点总结 - The overall demand for polysilicon still faces significant pressure. The futures market of polysilicon rose to the daily limit today, mainly due to the increase in coal and energy prices, which led to an increase in costs. The photovoltaic industry remains a major focus in the anti - involution conference, resulting in a significant increase in polysilicon prices. However, with high profits and inventory levels, if enterprises resume production and the downstream cannot absorb the high - priced products, a negative feedback loop may form. The spot price did not rise today. It is recommended to wait and see or consider buying put options instead of chasing the high prices [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term PVC market is bullish due to policy incentives, but the industry faces long - term supply pressure. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the Indian market demand is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. Cost - wise, the restart of some calcium carbide plants may put pressure on calcium carbide prices, and the ethylene market price may remain weakly stable [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5260 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 142 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1,850,727 lots, up 27,185 lots. The open interest is 865,261 lots, down 49,630 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,942 lots, down 6,035 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,075 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,031.15 yuan/ton, up 177.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,011.25 yuan/ton, up 158.75 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 180 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,623.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 503 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 211 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.59%, with the ethylene - based PVC operating rate at 71.95% (up 0.62%) and the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate at 0.93%. The total social inventory of PVC is 79.71 million tons, up 1.83 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The total social inventory of PVC in the East China region is 36.41 million tons, up 1.43 million tons, and in the South China region is 4.69 million tons, up 0.4 million tons. The national real - estate climate index is 93.6, down 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 30,364.32 million square meters, up 7,180.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 633,321.43 million square meters, up 8,301.89 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 244.755 billion yuan, up 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 21.06%, up 1.28%, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.04%, up 1.23%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options for PVC is 23.15%, up 3.73% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 22, the spot cash price of Changzhou PVC SG5 increased by 40 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, ranging from 5,060 to 5,130 yuan/ton. From July 12 to 18, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a 0.62% increase from the previous period. As of July 17, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.42% to 65.73 million tons compared to the previous period, a 31.15% decrease year - on - year. Affected by the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity in ten key industries, the main industrial products rose, with V2509 rising 3.69% to close at 5,260 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Currently, the supply is tight and the new crop faces high - temperature weather, which provides positive support. The short - term trend is upward. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips, and continuous attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 35,399 lots, down 4,976 lots; main contract open interest for cotton is 554,167 lots, down 5,311 lots; cotton warehouse receipts are 9,436 lots, down 65 lots; China Cotton Price Index CCIndex 3128B is 15,549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 265 lots, down 151 lots; main contract open interest for cotton yarn is 15,117 lots, down 2,106 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 96 lots, unchanged; China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index FCIndexM with 1% tariff is 13,693 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan; with sliding - scale duty is 14,414 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan. The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 22,103 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 23,979 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,191 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons [2] 产业情况 - Cotton import volume is 30,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. Imported cotton profit is 1,111 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.8298 million tons, down 628,900 tons [2] 下游情况 - Yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days;坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. Cloth output is 2.779 billion meters, up 109 million meters; yarn output is 2.065 million tons, up 114,000 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.5266714 billion US dollars, up 168.8977 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2048207 billion US dollars, down 58.3566 million US dollars [2] Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility is 12.54%, up 0.16%; at - the - money put option implied volatility is 12.54%, up 0.17%. Cotton 20 - day historical volatility is 8.57%, up 0.4%; 60 - day historical volatility is 9.03%, down 0.13% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton is 57%, up from 54% the previous week and 53% the same period last year. Internationally, due to falling grain prices and rainfall forecasts in production areas, US cotton futures prices have declined [2] 新作方面 - In some parts of Xinjiang, there is high - temperature weather, and cotton is at a high risk of high - temperature heat damage [2][3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From July 11 - 17, China's PE production increased by 0.52% to 609,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 0.89 percentage points to 78.68%. The average operating rate of PE downstream products increased by 0.64%. As of July 16, the sample inventory of PE producers increased by 7.34% to 529,300 tons, and as of July 18, the social sample warehouse inventory increased by 4.07% to 558,400 tons. The total inventory pressure is not significant. [2] - In July, the PE maintenance plan was basically fulfilled. With the restart of shutdown devices, production and capacity utilization are expected to increase in the second half of the month. New devices of ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into operation, which may increase industry supply pressure in the medium - long term. [2] - The downstream operating rate increased recently driven by packaging film demand, but the seasonal inflection point cannot be confirmed due to the poor data of agricultural film orders and operating rate. [2] - The market expects limited actual effects of EU sanctions on Russia, and US tariffs on the EU are about to be implemented, causing international oil prices to fluctuate weakly. Under positive macro - expectations, L2509 fluctuates more, with a short - term strong upward trend in the market. [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the PE futures main contract was 7,368 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,416 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,420 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,368 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan. [2] - The trading volume was 384,173 lots, up 36,170 lots; the open interest was 394,148 lots, down 13,406 lots. The 1 - 5 month contract spread was - 4 yuan, down 22 yuan. [2] - The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 353,248 lots, down 6,923 lots; the short position was 379,362 lots, down 10,012 lots; the net long position was - 26,114 lots, up 3,089 lots. [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,224.35 yuan/ton, up 21.74 yuan; in East China, it was 7,312.68 yuan/ton, up 9.51 yuan. The basis was - 65.65 yuan, down 52.26 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.13 US dollars/barrel, down 0.5 US dollars; the CFR mid - price in Japan was 572.88 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars. [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia, it was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE petrochemicals was 78.21%, up 0.43 percentage points. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of PE packaging film was 48.59%, up 0.52 percentage points; for PE pipes, it was 28.83%, up 0.83 percentage points; for PE agricultural film, it was 12.46%, down 0.17 percentage points. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PE was 8.06%, down 3.83 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.52%, up 0.24 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options for PE was 13.84%, up 2 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From July 11 - 17, China's PE production was 609,100 tons, up 0.52% from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate was 78.68%, up 0.89 percentage points. [2] - From July 11 - 17, the average operating rate of China's PE downstream products increased by 0.64% from the previous period. [2] - As of July 16, the sample inventory of China's PE producers was 529,300 tons, up 7.34% from the previous period; as of July 18, the social sample warehouse inventory of PE was 558,400 tons, up 4.07% from the previous period. [2] - Affected by the policy of eliminating backward production capacity in ten key industries, the main industrial products rose during the day, with L2509 rising 1.26% to close at 7,368 yuan/ton. [2]

尿素产业日报 2025-07-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1817 | 5 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 8 | -24 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 191764 | -4185 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -35180 | -6933 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2523 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1800 | 30 河南(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 30 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 30 山东(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 30 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 23 | 5 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 437.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 435 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, with no significant change in demand. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and the annual line pressure still exists. It is recommended to go long at low levels [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 2,015 US dollars/ton, up 3.5 US dollars [3] - The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 35 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 101,465 lots, up 2,568 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 2,632 lots, down 1,396 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,059 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,925 tons, down 3,475 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,910 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3] - The basis of the lead main contract was - 175 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 25.97 US dollars/ton, down 1.77 US dollars [3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.32 million tons, down 0.29 million tons [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 50 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly import volume of lead ore was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [3] Industrial Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries was 10,135.71 yuan/ton, down 26.79 yuan [3] - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,050 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 1,764.64 points, up 13.09 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles [3] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [3] Industry News - US Republican Congressman Luna sent a letter to the Department of Justice accusing Powell of perjury twice and filing criminal charges [3] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be lowered, and the Fed should be comprehensively reviewed [3] - Trump administration officials are considering visiting the Fed during the review of its renovation project, and Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott is also discussing whether to attend [3] - The White House said Trump has no plan to fire Powell [3] - The US Congressional Budget Office said the "Big and Beautiful" bill may increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in ten years [3] - Fitch downgraded the industry outlook rating of 25% of US industries to "deteriorating" [3] View Summary - The supply of primary lead has decreased due to falling prices; the supply of recycled lead is tight due to the shortage of waste battery raw materials, and the resumption of production is slow [3] - The price of 1 lead has fallen; the price of waste batteries has stabilized, and the procurement price of some enterprises has returned to 10,000 yuan/ton [3] - The demand for lead - acid batteries has not shown the seasonal peak effect, and the downstream is still waiting and watching, with limited impact on lead prices [3] - Overseas inventory has increased; domestic inventory has increased slightly, and overall demand has slowed down [3] 提示关注 - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain unchanged, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [3]

| | 7月21日 22:00 美国6月谘商会领先指标月率 | | --- | --- | | 重点关注 | 7月23日 17:15 英国央行行长贝利、央行金融政策委员会外部委员克罗兹纳和威尔金斯在英国议会下院财政 | | | 委员会就英国央行半年度金融稳定报告发表讲话。 | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：T为10年期国债期货，TF为5年期国债期货，TS为2年期国债期货 国债期货日报 2025/7/21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.760 | -0.05% T主力成交量 | 88280 | 3602↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.955 | -0.05% TF主力成交量 | 72060 | 700↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.420 | -0.01% TS主力成交量 | 31667 | 91↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 119.970 | -0.46% TL主力成交量 | 118 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, tight supply and high - temperature risks for new crops support a strong - biased price fluctuation, but the downstream off - season restricts the price increase space, resulting in an overall oscillatory and strong - biased fluctuation. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips and pay continuous attention to weather and macro factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 30,423 hands, down 7,742 hands; main contract cotton positions are 559,478 hands, down 21,295 hands; cotton warehouse receipts are 9,501 sheets, down 31 sheets. The closing price of the main contract of cotton yarn is 20,390 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the top 20 net positions of cotton yarn futures are - 114 hands, down 244 hands; the main contract cotton yarn positions are 17,223 hands, down 1,835 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 96 sheets, down 1 sheet [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,589 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,792 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty) is 14,478 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 20,740 yuan/ton; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 22,115 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn is 23,993 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,232 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the daily import cotton profit is 817 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days; the monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 50 million meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.3577737 billion US dollars, an increase of 197.1179 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1.2631773 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.2109 million US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.38%, down 0.8%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.37%, down 0.81%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 8.17%, down 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.16%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of July 18, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton continued to decline, with a total of 2.4575 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons (a decrease of 5.71%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 1.6731 million tons, a decrease of 124,700 tons (a decrease of 6.94%) from the previous week; the commercial cotton in the inland area was 419,100 tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons (a decrease of 2.13%) from the previous week. Internationally, the good - growth rate of US cotton has been adjusted upwards, the weather forecast shows high temperatures, the export data is average, and there are mixed long and short factors such as trade - relation expectations, resulting in an oscillatory operation of US cotton [2]. 3.8 Core View - Currently, tight supply and new crops facing high - temperature weather support a strong - biased price fluctuation, but the downstream is in the off - season, restricting the price increase space, resulting in an overall oscillatory and strong - biased fluctuation. The mainstream spinning mills' operating load as of July 17 was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.28% from the previous period. In Xinjiang, some areas have high - temperature weather, and cotton is at a high risk of high - temperature heat damage. Technically, the moving averages of the main contract system show a bullish arrangement. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips [2][3].

多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 45660 | 1810 8-9月多晶硅价差 | 400 | 165 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 172057 | 16518 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 36400 | 1245 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 46000 | -750 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 2150 | 1100 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 9260 | 565 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12197.89 ...