| 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 14895 0 | 50 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -15 20号胶11-12价差(日,元/吨) | 12195 40 | 205 20 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2660 | -195 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 149446 | -384 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 22169 | -5323 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -25886 | 899 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -12440 | -1940 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 139560 | -860 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 39917 14250 | -1512 0 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 14950 | 0 | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 1820 ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1600 | 3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -69 | 5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 322686 | 694 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -45781 | -1085 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6493 | -77 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1590 | 20 河南(日,元/吨) | 1540 | 20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1560 | 30 山东(日,元/吨) | 1550 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1560 | 10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -50 | -3 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 370 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 385 | ...

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12560 | -5 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -180 | 20 3239 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) 193490 | -10018 | -1458 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 84007 | -490 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) 9250 | 13550 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | | -50 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 610 | 5 | | | | 上游情况 | 电解镍产量(月,吨) | 29430 | 1120 镍铁产量合计(月,万金属吨) | 2.2 | -0.02 | | | 进口数量:精炼镍及合金(月,吨) 87.41 | | 24426.84 -13807.17 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market's commercial inventory has dropped to a low level compared to the same period. Xinjiang's seed cotton purchase price has slightly increased, with machine - picked cotton around 3.0 yuan per catty and hand - picked cotton around 3.50 yuan per catty. New cotton is gradually coming to the market, and the new year's harvest is obvious, leading to increasing supply - side pressure. On the demand side, textile mill orders have not improved significantly, the operating rate is still lower than last year, and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season in the downstream has not emerged. It is recommended to keep a wait - and - see attitude for now and pay attention to the new cotton purchase price [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,270 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 74,836 hands, down 8,212 hands; the main contract's cotton position is 580,856 hands, up 12,867 hands; cotton's warehouse receipt quantity is 2,773 sheets, down 50 sheets. The main contract closing price of cotton yarn is 19,325 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 506 hands, up 54 hands; the main contract's cotton yarn position is 18,204 hands, up 1,792 hands; cotton yarn's warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 12,808 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 14,674 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,856 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 21,224 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 22,491 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,766 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the daily import cotton profit is 889 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, down 708,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days; the monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.4145904 billion US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns and fabrics is 1.2393202 billion US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 9.06%, down 0.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 9.06%, down 0.65%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.98%, down 0.31%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.77%, up 0.01% [2]. Industry News - As of October 9, the yarn inventory of major textile enterprises decreased, mainly due to accelerated pre - holiday shipments and a reduction in the operating rate of textile enterprises. The inventory of large factories in Xinjiang is about 35 days, and that of inland enterprises is 10 - 15 days. ICE cotton futures declined slightly on Tuesday due to weakening global cotton demand expectations [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall tone of recent statements from Fed officials remains dovish, with the performance of the employment market still being the focus of subsequent attention. The repeated tariff expectations and the continued shutdown of the US government continue to boost the safe - haven property of precious metals. The Fed's dovish interest - rate stance may also provide strong support for gold prices. However, due to the significant short - term increases in gold and silver futures prices, there is a need to guard against the risk of a pullback. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The focus range for the Shanghai Gold main 2512 contract is 930 - 980 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main 2512 contract, it is 11200 - 12200 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 960.34 yuan/gram, up 21.36 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11966 yuan/kilogram, up 433 yuan. The main contract positions are 230686 hands for Shanghai Gold, up 2227 hands, and 477807 hands for Shanghai Silver, up 10117 hands. The net positions of the top 20 for the Shanghai Gold main contract are 137507 hands, down 176 hands; for Shanghai Silver, they are 98167 hands, up 1937 hands. The warehouse receipt quantities are 75099 kilograms for gold, up 2916 kilograms, and 1030429 kilograms for silver, down 32643 kilograms. The spot prices from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network are 954.2 yuan/gram for gold, up 2.2 yuan, and 11849 yuan/kilogram for silver, up 590 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.14 yuan/gram, down 19.16 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 117 yuan/kilogram, up 157 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 1021.45 tons, up 2.57 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15733.09 tons, down 21.17 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC (weekly) are 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; for silver, they are 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 22.87%, up 0.56%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.54%, up 0.41%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 27.49%, up 3.58%; for at - the - money put options, it is 27.5%, up 3.59% [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US has implemented final measures for a 301 investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, and Hanwha Ocean's US subsidiaries provided assistance. China has counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean, banning domestic organizations and individuals from trading and cooperating with them. The US has announced tariff increases on China, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has urged the US to correct its wrong actions. Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the next few months, admitting to signs of tightening in the money market. The London gold price has risen above the $4200 mark, and silver prices have also risen following the strength of gold. Trump's statement about stopping edible oil trade with China has made Sino - US relations tense again [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures main contract is fluctuating weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. It is recommended to trade with a light - position range - bound strategy, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract opened lower and rebounded slightly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum main contract opened lower and rebounded slightly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,910 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,797 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 80 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; that of alumina is - 6 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 148,539 lots, down 10,640 lots; that of the alumina main contract is 361,466 lots, up 5,093 lots [2]. - **LME Data**: The LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 98,250 tons, unchanged; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,739.5 dollars/ton, down 17.5 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 503,950 tons, down 2,050 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot Price**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,865 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - **Other Spot Data**: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium is 40 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME aluminum premium is 10.22 dollars/ton, down 11.03 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina Production and Supply**: The alumina production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 86.74%, up 1.99 percentage points; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap Trade**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export volume is 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in operation has increased slightly; the electrolytic aluminum open - rate is 98.27%, up 0.16 percentage points; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 60.40 million tons, up 1.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The aluminum products production is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 52.10 million tons, down 0.90 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.91 million tons, up 0.42 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Production**: The automobile production is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Alumina Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the reduced shipments in Guinea due to climate reasons, the domestic bauxite supply will continue to decline, and the bauxite price is firm. The alumina spot price is weakening, but smelters still have profit margins, so the supply remains stable. The increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has a limited impact on alumina consumption [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding [2]. 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: The supply of alumina is excessive, and its price is weakening. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased slightly. With good profit margins for smelters, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing slightly. The demand for downstream aluminum products is expected to improve after the holidays and due to policies [2]. - **Options**: The put - call ratio is 1.24, up 0.0405, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars have just appeared [2]. 3.8 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: The cost of cast aluminum is rising due to the strong aluminum price and tight scrap aluminum supply, but the supply may decrease. The market consumption is gradually recovering after the holidays, but the spot purchase by downstream enterprises is cautious, and the inventory is accumulating [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The HC2601 contract decreased with increasing positions on Wednesday. Overall, iron ore prices are under pressure and the support from steel - making costs is weakening. Meanwhile, tariff disturbances will continue to affect market sentiment in the short term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish with oscillations, and attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,212 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the position volume is 1469405 lots, up 17676 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 53,264 lots, down 12323 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 11 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 99691 tons, up 39913 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 178 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou it is 3,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it is 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin it is 3,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 98 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 781 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 14,028.67 million tons, up 31.32 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 42.55 million tons, up 3.49 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 650.57 million tons, down 12.54 million tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei is 127.6 million tons, up 7.94 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.25%, down 0.02 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.53%, down 0.10 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 323.29 million tons, down 1.40 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 82.58%, down 0.37 percentage points. The weekly inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 83.60 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 329.30 million tons, up 29.92 million tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 991.70 million tons, up 90.70 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 327.60 million vehicles, up 46.06 million vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 322.60 million vehicles, up 36.94 million vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 1,681.88 million units, down 377.77 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 945.32 million units, up 72.25 million units. The monthly output of household washing machines is 1,013.18 million units, up 135.75 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In September 2025, the national ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month, and rising 0.1% month - on - month. From January to September, the average ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on the industrial economic operation of some provinces, emphasizing the need to intensify the implementation of a new round of ten key industry stable - growth work plans [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, in - plant inventory and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]

股指期货全景日报 2025/10/15 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2512） | 最新 4576.4 | 环比 数据指标 +77.2↑ IF次主力合约（2510） | 最新 4601.6 | 环比 +70.6↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2512） | 2997.4 | +44.4↑ IH次主力合约（2510） | 2999.4 | | | | IC主力合 ...

| | | 象，但是预计反弹高度有限，操作上建议，从铅价建议逢低布局多单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 11-12月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | 17110 -10 | 60 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) 5 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 1977.5 84493 | -16 886 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -3855 | 528 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 30705 | 11 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 生猪产业日报 2025-10-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11400 | -50 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 44805 | -3846 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 111 | 21 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -30361 | 1006 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 11200 | 100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 11400 | 400 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 11300 | 200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -200 | 150 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4038 | -4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.3 | 0.1 现货价: ...