Core Insights - As of July 16, 2025, the main contract for coking coal (2509) experienced a decline of 1.48%, with a trading volume of 975,300 contracts and a net short position of 45,396 contracts among the top 20 positions [1][3]. Trading Volume and Positions - The total trading volume for all coking coal contracts was 1,246,300 contracts, a decrease of 78,600 contracts from the previous day [1][4]. - Among the top 20 positions, long positions totaled 439,200 contracts, an increase of 10,600 contracts, while short positions totaled 516,700 contracts, an increase of 25,000 contracts [1][4]. Major Players - The top three long positions were held by: - CITIC Futures with a total position of 47,665 contracts - Guotai Junan with a total position of 42,426 contracts - Huatai Futures with a total position of 42,160 contracts [1][3]. - The top three short positions were held by: - Guotai Junan with a total position of 81,591 contracts - CITIC Futures with a total position of 66,697 contracts - Galaxy Futures with a total position of 45,111 contracts [1][3]. Changes in Positions - Among the top 20 positions, the largest increases in long positions were from: - Xingzheng Futures with an increase of 3,808 contracts - Founder Futures with an increase of 2,585 contracts - CITIC Jiantou with an increase of 2,137 contracts [1][3]. - The largest increases in short positions were from: - Guotai Junan with an increase of 7,377 contracts - Donghai Futures with an increase of 2,709 contracts - CITIC Futures with an increase of 2,682 contracts [1][3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the consumption off - season, demand is stable but trending weaker. The key factors affecting the short - term market are the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end and the entry of secondary fattening. The short - term supply shortage has slightly improved, the price boost is weakened, the upward pace slows down, and the demand off - season and medium - term supply pressure will still restrict the price upside. The market will mainly show an oscillatory trend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 14,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the main contract position is 67,876 lots, a decrease of 1,508 lots; the number of warehouses is 444 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 17,959 lots, a decrease of 1,301 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin is 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis is 315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 41,7310,000 heads, a decrease of 1,0120,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, an increase of 40,000 heads. The CPI year - on - year is - 0.1%, the corn spot price is 2,413.63 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 935.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.82 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 2,830, an increase of 0.21 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of feed is 27,621,000 tons, an increase of 981,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,640 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is 31.6 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.2 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,2160,000 heads, an increase of 1390,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 457.82 billion yuan, an increase of 41.12 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of the second quarter, the live pig inventory was 424,470,000 heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; in the first half of the year, the live pig slaughter was 366,190,000 heads, an increase of 0.6%. On the supply side, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has slightly improved recently. On the demand side, high temperatures suppress people's willingness to buy pork, schools are on holiday, the terminal sales speed is slow, and the slaughterhouse operating rate continues to decline, but it is higher than the same period last year [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall production of methanol has slightly decreased recently as the capacity loss from domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from capacity recovery. The inventory of some enterprises has increased slightly due to fewer transport vehicles and low enthusiasm of traders for提货. The port inventory in East China has increased, while that in South China has decreased. The overall downstream demand remains weak, and the port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. The olefin industry's overall operating rate may increase slightly this week, but some MTO units are expected to shut down, and attention should be paid to the implementation of low - profit maintenance of MTO units. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2430 in the short term [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2386 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 69 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 650,875 lots, down 4,644 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 112,021 lots, down 8,122 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 9,251, up 723 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2385 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 410 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 1 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 277 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 333 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 241 euros/ton, down 4 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 56 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.45 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.09 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 57.05 million tons, up 6.1 million tons; the inventory in South China ports is 14.84 million tons, down 1.58 million tons. The import profit of methanol is - 26.11 yuan/ton, down 29.09 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 129.23 million tons, up 50.46 million tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 356,900 tons, up 4,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.75%, down 3.43 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 45.24%, down 0.83 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.19%, unchanged. The operating rate of acetic acid is 93.91%, up 0.49 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 66.86%, up 1.8 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins is 85.15%, up 0.55 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 943 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 23.88%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 22.75%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 16.94%, up 0.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.95%, up 0.9 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of July 9, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 35.69 million tons, up 0.46 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 22.12 million tons, down 2.00 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29%. The total inventory at Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 million tons, up 4.52 million tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased, while the inventory in South China decreased [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The PVC price has limited upside space under the background of weak supply and demand after the digestion of previous macro - positive factors. V2509 is expected to focus on the support around 4950 and the pressure around 5050 on the daily K - line [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4975 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the trading volume is 982125 lots, down 51490 lots; the open interest is 959779 lots, up 2988 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 780350 lots, down 2969 lots; the short position is 788539 lots, up 13916 lots; the net long position is - 8189 lots, down 16885 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4868.46 yuan/ton, down 20.38 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5005 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4917.5 yuan/ton, down 31.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 105 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2621.67 yuan/ton, down 8.33 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, down 200.5 yuan. The weekly average price of VCM CFR Far East is 503 dollars/ton, down 21 dollars; the weekly average price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 548 dollars/ton, down 16 dollars. The weekly average price of EDC CFR Far East is 211 dollars/ton, up 27 dollars; the weekly average price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 219 dollars/ton, up 31 dollars [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.97%, down 0.47 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.21%, down 1.59 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 71.02%, up 2.48 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 39.27 tons, up 1.96 tons. The total social inventory in East China is 34.98 tons, up 1.95 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 4.29 tons, up 0.01 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.72, down 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, up 5347.77 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, up 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, up 4281.68 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 15.44%, up 0.1 percentage point; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.74%, up 0.1 percentage point. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.61%, up 1.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.61%, up 1.16 percentage points [3] Industry News - On July 14, the spot exchange price of Changzhou PVCSG5 was stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4820 to 4910 yuan/ton. From July 5th to 11th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. As of July 10th, the large - sample statistics of PVC social inventory increased by 5.37% month - on - month to 62.36 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.15% [3] Outlook - In July, domestic PVC plants are under centralized maintenance. This week, a 300,000 - ton plant of Yidongdongxing is planned to stop for maintenance, and some previously shut - down plants will restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise month - on - month. In the long - term, the planned commissioning of plants by Wanhua, Bohua, and Tianjin Dagu in July will increase the industry's supply pressure. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented this month. There is still uncertainty about the calcium carbide production restrictions in Inner Mongolia. Due to the lifting of the ban on US ethane exports to China, the domestic ethylene supply tends to be loose, and the cost of the ethylene - based process may continue to decline in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The steel mills are facing increasing cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board, forcing them to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further. Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure, the downstream shows a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction effect brought by subsequent production cuts. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and differences between long and short positions. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,715 yuan/ton, with a change of +5; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 15 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,072 lots, with a change of - 540; the main contract position is 66,494 lots, with a change of - 11,562. The warehouse receipt quantity is 110,991 tons, with a change of - 60 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change. The SS main contract basis is 205 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 900 yuan/nickel point, with no change. The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 624,400 tons, an increase of 18,500 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231,836,100 square meters, an increase of 53,477,700 square meters. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 246,000 units, with a change of - 10,400 units; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, with a change of - 200 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, with a change of - 10,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan. In June, the M2 - M1 gap was 3.7 percentage points, 1.9 percentage points smaller than in May. The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately easy monetary policy. China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through exchange - rate depreciation, and service consumption is the key to boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand. The EU's Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security said that if the US - EU trade negotiations fail, the EU is prepared to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imported goods worth about 84 billion US dollars. On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, but the release of Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity has accelerated, and the price of nickel - iron has dropped significantly recently, weakening the raw material cost support [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily as the short - term integer mark will be an important resistance level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 396,653 lots (down 6,237 lots), the net position of the top 20 is - 67,783 lots, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,258 lots, and the price difference between industrial silicon in August - September is 5 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), the Si main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, and the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, the weekly social inventory is 552,000 tons (up 10,000 tons), the monthly import volume is 71.51 tons, and the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, the daily average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, the daily market price of overseas photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 7,624.27 tons, the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41% (up 1.17%), the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons (down 337,930 tons), and the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There is a rumor that Xinjiang will cancel all electricity price subsidies, which will increase the cost of industrial silicon by 300 - 700 yuan/ton. Large manufacturers have temporarily cancelled their restart plans [3]. - The domestic industrial silicon spot market is stable, with the mainstream price of 421 in the domestic market ranging from 8,450 to 9,900 yuan/ton [3].

率同比有所下降。近期锌价宽幅调整，下游逢低采购为主，对高价锌接受度仍较低，国内社库持续增加， 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 现货升水降至低位；海外LME库存回升，对锌价压力增加。技术面，持仓下行多空谨慎，区间震荡运行， 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关注22000支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 | | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-07-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22250 | -130 08-09月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 15 | -10 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2738 | -39 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 238274 | -13815 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 15052 | -8302 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 9171 | 298 | | | 上期所库存(周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The demand side of polysilicon still faces significant pressure. Although the polysilicon price increased last week, giving most manufacturers a chance to turn losses into profits, this is not the norm. Most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging, and the polysilicon inventory is at a high level. The short - term speculative market is expected to end, and it is advisable to buy put options appropriately [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 42,470 yuan/ton, up 705 yuan; the position of the main contract is 69,821 lots, down 8,507 lots; the price difference between August and September polysilicon is 350 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 33,685 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 45,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of polysilicon is 3,030 yuan/ton, down 705 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, up 0.72 US dollars; the average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feed type polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, down 161 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.04 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, down 1,359,000 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, up 19,610,660 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 12,098,490 pieces, down 8,021,950 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.33 US dollars/piece, up 0.04 US dollars/piece; the weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, up 0.62 [2] Industry News - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia and also impose secondary sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil. The Brazilian vice - president denied the news that Brazil asked the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days, and Brazil will announce a reciprocal counter - measure decree on US tariffs. The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on 72 billion US dollars of US goods. The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering zero - tariff on more US imports. The US Department of Commerce has launched a 232 investigation into the import of drones and polysilicon [2] Macro - aspect - Currently, the CPI has turned positive, and the PPI continues to weaken. The market's expectations for the end - of - month meeting have increased. On the supply side of polysilicon, the overall output of polysilicon enterprises has increased, with some enterprises increasing production while others are under maintenance, and the self - disciplined production reduction measures have not significantly expanded the capacity fluctuation [2]

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,259 | -17↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1566776 | -13515↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -20,861 | +2773↑ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -18 | -6↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 64587 | 0.00 HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 145 | +7↑ | | | 杭州 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar has great uncertainty, and Thailand prohibits the transit of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level [3] - In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and cost pressure, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure and the operating rate remains at a low level [3] - In the demand sector, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment ended, the operating rate of some producers decreased; the electronics industry entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [3] - Recently, tin prices have been widely adjusted. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas inventory continues to decline with an increase in LME cancelled warrants [3] - Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low position, and the price is adjusted widely within the range. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 266,720 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan; the closing price of the 3 - month LME tin is 33,565 US dollars/ton, up 115 US dollars [3] - The closing price of the August - September contract of Shanghai Tin is 20 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is 25,204 lots, up 1,054 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in futures of Shanghai Tin is 435 lots, down 467 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 1,970 tons, down 45 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,097 tons (weekly), down 101 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 570 tons, down 25 tons [3] - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,605 tons (daily), down 26 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 266,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 266,180 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 220 yuan/ton, down 2,980 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 251.8 US dollars/ton, down 274.01 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan [3] - The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 173,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons [3] - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14,070 tons, down 3,390 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - In June in China, the social financing increment was 420 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 224 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [3] - The EU is prepared to impose counter - tariffs on US imports worth about 84 billion US dollars if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [3] - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is uncertain, and Thailand prohibits the transit of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level [3]