1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply - demand pattern of live pigs remains relatively loose and is difficult to reverse. It is expected that live pig prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures [3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 11,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan; the main contract position is 57,257 lots, a decrease of 3,135 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 33,606 lots, a decrease of 517 lots [3] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 11,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin it is 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong it is 11,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan; the main live pig basis is - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 295 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads [3] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is - 0.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the corn spot price is 2,294.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.81 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 868.6, a decrease of 8.83; the monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, an increase of 999,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, a decrease of 3 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 301.04 yuan/head, a decrease of 64.47 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 152.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 78.04 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 14.37 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,3500,000 heads, an increase of 1840,000 heads; the monthly value of catering revenue in total retail sales of social consumer goods is 449.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4 billion yuan [3] Industry News - In September 2025, the number of newborn piglets in the sample was 5,676,000 heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02%, and the sales volume of piglets was 531,400 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% [3] Viewpoint Summary - The supply side has near - term pressure due to data cycles and postponed出栏 plans, and active retail farmer sales. The demand side has decreased after the festival, with reduced terminal procurement and slaughter enterprise operations. The short - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, and live pig prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Reverse arbitrage operations on live pig futures are recommended [3]

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-10-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22255 | -15 10-11月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -50 | 0 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2984.5 | -29.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 212601 | -2771 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 5838 | 1161 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 59614 | -1030 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 106950 | 8940 LME库存(日,吨) | 37950 | -300 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22200 | -100 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22040 | -500 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -55 | -85 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | 100.45 | 33 ...

沪镍产业日报 2025-10-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 121410 | -770 10-11月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -260 | -60 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15215 | -270 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 74700 | -3140 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -28802 | 545 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 242094 | 4716 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 33119 | 3604 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 6198 | -696 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 25272 | 44 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 122450 | -1400 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 122550 | -1300 | | | 上海电 ...

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/10/13 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：RB：螺纹钢；HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,083.00 | -20↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1952748 | +26595↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -66569 | +22278↑ ...

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-10-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 2 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 2808 | -16961 | 16888 | | 克) | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(1-5):(日,元/500千克) 85 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | -162 | 234377 | -9875 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) -60 | 13 | | | | 现货市场 | 鸡蛋现货价格(日,元/斤) -0.12 基差(现货-期货)(日,元/500千克) | 2.81 | 6 | -126 | | 上游情况 | 产蛋鸡存栏指数:全国(月,2015=100) 1.22 淘汰产蛋鸡指数:全国(月,2015=100) | 114.4 | 93.61 | -5.59 | | | 主产区平均价:蛋鸡苗(周,元/ ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the gradual resumption of operations of maintenance enterprises, the production capacity of domestic tire enterprises is expected to increase significantly this week. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,400 in the short term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,400 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,940 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,040 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the 11 - 12 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,900 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 151,771 lots, up 7,754 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 29,855 lots, down 416 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 28,163 lots, down 4,162 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 10,961 lots, up 397 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 142,940 tons, down 1,450 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 41,429 tons, up 100 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,250 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,850 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,200 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 690 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,144 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 1,104 yuan/ton, up 229 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 59.11 Thai baht/kg, up 0.64 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 55.1 Thai baht/kg, down 1.01 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 53.9 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 51.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.8 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 171 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 15.8 US dollars/ton, up 20.8 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 113,100 tons, down 8,800 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 268,400 tons, up 8,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 50.87%, down 14.85 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 55.26%, down 18.32 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.87 days, up 0.36 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.7 days, down 0.23 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 18.91%, down 0.7 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.99%, up 1.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.69%, up 0.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.68%, up 0.08 percentage points [2] Industry News - From October 12 - 18, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in northern and central Vietnam, and rainfall in most other areas was low, with a slightly reduced impact on tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red area was mainly in eastern Malaysia, and rainfall in most other areas was medium - to - low, with an increased impact on tapping. In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon. In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1.05 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 8.21 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20%. As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 17.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 13.83 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.78 percentage points [2] Viewpoint Summary - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the weather is normal and raw material supply is okay, but the purchase price has decreased slightly due to the decline in futures and spot prices. In Hainan, continuous rainfall has restricted tapping operations, and the seasonal increase in raw materials has slowed down. Affected by the decline in domestic and foreign futures and spot markets, local processing plants are cautious about increasing the purchase price of raw materials. The total inventory in Qingdao Port has decreased slightly compared with before the holiday. The bonded warehouse has seen inventory accumulation, while the general trade warehouse has seen inventory reduction. After the holiday, downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and there has been no large - scale replenishment [2]

周五（10月10日）夜盘，苯乙烯期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至6693.00元。截止收盘，苯乙烯主 力合约报6726.00元，跌幅0.83%。 银河期货：乙烯后市或仍面临累库压力，价格或仍将承压 苯乙烯期货主力跌近1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 山东京博思达睿计划外检修带动苯乙烯山东对华东价差走强，区域间套利窗口关闭。节后港口库存和工 厂库存上升，四季度国恩化学（原中信国安）20万吨PO/SM联产装置、吉林石化60万吨乙苯脱氢苯乙 烯、广西石化60万吨PO/SM装置有投产计划，苯乙烯供应预期增加。下游3S订单不足，市场现货供应 充足，企业库存整体偏高，苯乙烯后市或仍面临累库压力，价格或仍将承压。 机构 核心观点 五矿期货 港口库存高位去化，苯乙烯价格或将止跌 瑞达期货（002961） 节后EB2511预计偏弱震荡 五矿期货：港口库存高位去化，苯乙烯价格或将止跌 现货价格下跌，期货价格下跌，基差走弱。分析如下：目前BZN价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间较 大。成本端纯苯开工中性震荡，供应量依然偏宽。供应端乙苯脱氢利润无变动，苯乙烯开工持续上行。 苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅累库；季节性旺季将至，需求端 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that plastic futures experienced a rapid decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 6998.00 yuan and closing at 7004.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.68% [1] - Guantong Futures predicts that plastic prices will experience a downward trend in the near term, citing a decrease in operating rates due to maintenance of new HDPE facilities and a current operating rate around 89% [2] - The downstream operating rate for PE has increased by 1.21 percentage points to 44.13%, with agricultural film entering peak season, leading to a rise in orders and inventory [2] Group 2 - Ruida Futures anticipates a weak fluctuation for L2601 post-holiday, with expectations of a price range between 7100-7220 yuan, influenced by OPEC's decision to slightly increase production and concerns over U.S. government shutdown affecting economic growth [3] - The supply side is expected to see a significant increase in domestic polyethylene production due to the restart of multiple facilities, while downstream demand for agricultural films is projected to reach its peak for the year [3] - The overall inventory is expected to rise due to increased supply, leading to a clear expectation of inventory accumulation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The futures industry in China has faced intensified regulatory scrutiny since 2025, with over 110 regulatory measures and disciplinary actions issued this year alone, particularly in the area of internet marketing, highlighting a shift from "penalty-driven" to "function-driven" regulation [1][2][8]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape has seen a significant increase in penalties, with 114 regulatory measures reported by the China Securities Regulatory Commission and local agencies since 2025, covering a wide range of violations including internet marketing, asset management, and internal controls [2][3]. - Internet marketing has emerged as a high-risk area, with at least 14 futures companies penalized for violations related to this sector [2][3]. - The regulatory approach has evolved to include a three-dimensional penalty system focusing on qualification, behavioral norms, and reputational constraints [4]. Compliance Challenges - Many firms exhibit a short-sighted mentality, prioritizing business growth over compliance, which has led to frequent penalties and highlighted the need for a proactive governance system [1][5]. - The industry has been criticized for a persistent "heavy business, light compliance" mindset, particularly in asset management and intermediary cooperation, which has not adapted to new regulatory requirements [6][7]. Future Directions - Futures companies are encouraged to establish a "proactive governance" system, focusing on risk management and compliance training to align with regulatory expectations [9]. - The industry is expected to undergo a transformation, shifting from being mere service providers to becoming risk management partners embedded within the supply chain [9][10]. - Technological advancements are seen as a key direction for compliance management, enabling firms to integrate compliance requirements into business processes and enhance risk identification and management [10][11]. Long-term Trends - The future of compliance governance in the futures industry is anticipated to follow a path of standardization, differentiation, intelligence in risk prevention, and ecological development, aiming for high-quality growth [11][12]. - The core competitiveness of futures companies will increasingly depend on their ability to create value through compliance rather than merely meeting regulatory minimums [12].

「2025.10.10」 焦炭市场周报 钢材累库需求偏弱，焦炭一轮提涨落地 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 瑞达期货研究院 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，二十届四中全会将于10月20日至23日在北京召开；国家发展改革委、市场监管总局发布《关于治理价格无序竞争维 护良好市场价格秩序的公告》。《公告》指出，对价格无序竞争问题突出的重点行业，指导行业协会等有关机构调研评估行业 平均成本，为经营者合理定价提供参考；9月30日起，《人民日报》连续推出8篇"习近平经济思想指引下的中国经济专论"系列 "钟才文"文章，围绕"经济形势怎么看、经济工作怎么干"，传递出稳预期、强信心、促发展的强烈信号。 2. 海外方面，以色列政府10日凌晨批准加沙停火协议。 3. 供需方面，假期焦炭生产供应正常，多数焦化厂内库存未有明显累计，大部分即产即销。需求端，本期铁水产量241.81万吨，- 0.55万吨，铁 ...