| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 24,595.00 | +220.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,800.00 | +20.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | -110.00 368,960.00 | -30.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -2021.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -221.00 518,021.00 | -8.00↓ -35343.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 47,425.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 196,081.00 | +2727.00↑ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 3,197.50 | +13.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 494,000.00 | -1825.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.930 | 0.08% T主力成交量 | 77005 | 22932↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.655 | 0.04% TF主力成交量 | 60586 | 16070↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.334 | 0% TS主力成交量 | 29841 | -1394↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 111.270 | -0.04% TL主力成交量 | 157285 | 67912↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | +0.02↑ T03-TL03价差 | -3.34 | 0.16↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | 0.07 | -0.01↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.28 | -0.05↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.01 | -0.01↓ TS03-T03价差 | -5.60 | -0.08↓ | | | TS260 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old chicken culls. The laying hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment at the breeding end is still lower than the same period last year, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the recent continuous recovery of egg prices has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for culling old chickens. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, the near - month contract may be in a wide - range low - level shock state. The far - month contract is expected to perform better than the near - month contract under the expectation of declining production capacity, and it is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contract with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3007 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 17; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for eggs is - 11868 hands; the egg futures spread between May and September is - 400 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 1; the egg futures open interest of the active contract is 264783 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 7366; the registered warehouse receipt volume for eggs is 0 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.5 yuan/jin, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02; the basis (spot - futures) is 493 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 7 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 112.03, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.21; the national culled laying hen index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 101.18, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.26; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas (weekly, yuan/feather) is 2.9, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1; the national new - hatched chick index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 93.62, with a month - on - month increase of 26.53; the average price of laying hen compound feed (weekly, yuan/kg) is 2.8, with no change; the breeding profit of laying hens (weekly, yuan/head) is - 0.29, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas (weekly, yuan/kg) is 8.16, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26; the culled chicken age in the whole country (monthly, days) is 500, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork (daily, yuan/kg) is 18.06, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables (daily, yuan/kg) is 5.51, with no change; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens (daily, yuan/kg) is 17.78, with a month - on - month increase of 0.07; the weekly inventory in the circulation link (weekly, days) is 1.21, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09; the weekly inventory in the production link (weekly, days) is 1.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs (monthly, tons) is 13394.53, with a month - on - month increase of 178.74 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas (weekly, tons) is 7377, with no change [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 7.09 yuan/kg, up 0.03 from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.55 yuan/kg, up 0.04 from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.04 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of January 14th, China's methanol port inventory decreased significantly due to a small total unloading volume, but the overall volume remains at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. [3] - Although the load of many MTO enterprises in East China was reduced last week, the load of inland enterprises increased, resulting in a slight increase in the weekly average operation of domestic methanol - to - olefins. With the implementation of the later East China MTO maintenance plan, there is an expectation of a load reduction in the short - term MTO industry. [3] - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was 0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. [3] - The open interest of the main methanol contract was 823,784 lots, a decrease of 6,246 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 146,595 lots, an increase of 18,580 lots. [3] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 7,655, with no change. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2255 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 33 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [3] - The CFR price of methanol at China's main port was 268 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, with no change. [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 260 euros/ton, with no change; the price difference between China's main port and Southeast Asia was - 54 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.38 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 US dollars/million British thermal units. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 1.1233 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 76,200 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 413,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,400 tons. [3] - The methanol import profit was - 32.17 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.22 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 195,000 tons. [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises was 450,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 34.07%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.17 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 2.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points. [3] - The acetic acid operating rate was 76.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.31 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 67.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points. [3] - The olefin operating rate was 88.06%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 1074 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 19.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 percentage points. [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 25.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 25.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points. [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 14th, the inventory of China's sampled methanol production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%; the orders to be delivered by sampled enterprises were 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [3] - As of January 14th, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 17,500 tons. [3] - Recently, the production loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the production increase due to recovery, resulting in an overall decrease in production. [3] - As of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall**: The report analyzes the current situation of the rapeseed industry, including futures and spot markets, upstream and downstream conditions, and industry news. It points out that the market is affected by factors such as international trade relations, supply and demand, and USDA reports [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic supply of rapeseed meal is tight in the near - term due to import restrictions and oil - mill shutdowns. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the marginal supply increases. The USDA report is bearish, dragging down the market. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and fluctuates with soybean meal [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Domestic oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, which supports the price and keeps the basis at a high level. But the expected arrival of Australian rapeseed and the possible improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed changed. For example, the closing price of rapeseed oil was 8949 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2289 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The positions and net buying volumes of the top 20 futures contracts for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed, and the number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil decreased [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and related substitutes such as soybean oil, palm oil, and soybean meal changed. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures and the price spreads between different varieties changed [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: Global and domestic rapeseed production and import data are presented. For example, the global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Operation**: The import rapeseed crushing profit increased, and the weekly starting rate of imported rapeseed was 0% [2]. Industry Situation - **Imports and Stocks**: The import volumes of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed changed, and the inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and other regions also changed [2]. - **Operation and Sales**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil decreased, and that of rapeseed meal remained unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The production of feed and edible vegetable oil and the retail sales of catering services changed [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied and historical volatilities of call and put options for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed [2]. Industry News - **Futures Movement**: ICE rapeseed futures rose following the increase in CBOT soybean oil futures, and the market awaited the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [2]. - **USDA Report**: The USDA monthly supply - demand report was bearish, with increased soybean production forecasts in the US and Brazil [2]. Key Points of Concern - The opening rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in different regions, as well as the development of China - Canada trade relations are the key points to watch [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - A-share market still has many positive factors in the current situation. China's trade surplus in 2025 hit a record high, and net exports are expected to support the GDP of that year. Although the Fed's rate - cut expectations have decreased and the US dollar index has strengthened, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel. The strong exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in Q1, and the stock market is gradually converging with the foreign exchange market. Also, due to the relatively late Spring Festival this year, the market has started to trade the policy expectations of the Two Sessions in early March in advance, and the A - share spring market is significantly advanced [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: - IF main contract (2603) closed at 4740.0, down 14.0; IF secondary main contract (2601) closed at 4737.6, down 30.2. - IH main contract (2603) closed at 3114.0, down 19.6; IH secondary main contract (2601) closed at 3109.0, down 24.8. - IC main contract (2603) closed at 8197.8, up 76.6; IC secondary main contract (2601) closed at 8221.0, up 52.6. - IM main contract (2603) closed at 8156.0, up 5.2; IM secondary main contract (2601) closed at 8242.0, up 6.2 [2] - **Futures Price Spreads**: - IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1628.6, down 1.0; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 3483.4, up 76.8. - IM - IC current - month contract spread was 21.0, down 40.0; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 5112.0, up 75.8. - IM - IF current - month contract spread was 3504.4, up 36.8; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 5133.0, up 35.8 [2] - **Futures Seasonal Spreads**: - IF current - season minus current - month was 2.4, up 10.0; IF next - season minus current - month was - 40.8, up 10.4. - IH current - season minus current - month was 5.0, up 4.0; IH next - season minus current - month was 3, up 11.0. - IC current - season minus current - month was - 23.2, up 18.4; IC next - season minus current - month was - 182.2, up 5.4. - IM current - season minus current - month was - 86.0, down 12.6; IM next - season minus current - month was - 277, down 3.6 [2] - **Futures Net Positions of Top 20**: - IF top 20 net positions were - 41,343.00, up 533.0. - IH top 20 net positions were - 16,409.00, up 1004.0. - IC top 20 net positions were - 32,805.00, up 3053.0. - IM top 20 net positions were - 50,614.00, up 526.0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: - CSI 300 closed at 4741.93, down 19.1; IF main contract basis was - 1.9, up 0.5. - SSE 50 closed at 3,112.1, down 20.9; IH main contract basis was 1.9, down 2.7. - CSI 500 closed at 8,227.7, up 84.4; IC main contract basis was - 29.9, down 17.8. - CSI 1000 closed at 8,257.2, up 54.0; IM main contract basis was - 101.2, down 58.4 [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, in billion yuan) was 39,868.62, up 2880.50. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, in billion yuan) was 26,829.92, up 89.30. - North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, in billion yuan) was 4209.36, up 219.55. Reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, in billion yuan) was - 286.0, up 2408.0. - Main funds (yesterday, today, in billion yuan) were - 1805.56 and - 889.40 respectively. - Proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 50.18, up 20.54. Shibor (daily, %) was 1.390, down 0.001. - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2601) was 17.60, down 19.00; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 13.78, up 0.08. - IO at - the - money put option closing price (2601) was 31.00, up 8.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 13.78, up 0.08. - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 13.26, down 0.16. Volume PCR (%) was 55.90, up 19.28. - Position PCR (%) was 75.15, down 2.53 [2] 3.4 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score was 5.70, up 2.30; technical aspect score was 5.00, up 2.10. - Capital aspect score was 6.40, up 2.50 [2] 3.5 Industry News - China's exports in December 2025 (in RMB) increased by 5.2% year - on - year (previous value: 5.7%); imports increased by 4.4% (previous value: 1.7%); trade surplus was 8087.7 billion yuan (previous value: 7925.8 billion yuan). Exports (in US dollars) increased by 6.6% year - on - year (previous value: 5.9%); imports increased by 5.7% (previous value: 1.9%); trade surplus was 1141.4 billion US dollars (previous value: 1116.8 billion US dollars) [2] - US CPI in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month; core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, with the year - on - year growth rates remaining the same as the previous values [2] - As of January 13, over 140 A - share companies had released their 2025 performance forecasts or bulletins, with 63 companies expecting performance growth and 5 companies expecting a turnaround from losses. Based on the mid - values of bulletins or forecasts, 72 companies had a net profit of over 1 billion yuan, and 22 had a net profit of over 10 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Market Performance - Most A - share major indexes closed higher. The three major indexes fluctuated upwards in the morning and dived in the afternoon. Small - and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap blue - chip stocks, with CSI 500 performing the strongest. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.82%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets refreshed the historical record again. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with the computer sector strengthening significantly and the banking and real estate sectors leading the decline [2]

| 环比 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 项目类别 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 13.4↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 1040.620 期货市场 | 22763 | +1759.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) -2954.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 100,679.00 | 1,438.00 | +68.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 +3666.00↑ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 201,087.00 | 1,276,402.00 | +134583.00↑ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) 1869↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 100152 | 628,696 | -1370↓ | | | 上金所黄金现货价 12.98↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 1038.00 现货市场 | 22,423.00 | 1473.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -0.46↓ 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -2.62 | -340. ...

苹果产业日报 2026-01-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) 155 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9934 | | 144627 | 4897 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 8093 | 2689 | | | | | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | 5.25 | 0 | 2.4 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | | | | | | | 元/斤) 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | 4.2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) 水果批发价:苹果(周,元/公斤) -0.1 平均批发价:富士苹果(周,元/公斤) | 5128.51 9.33 | 168.34 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production of urea production enterprises increased, with the production reaching 137.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 million tons or 0.92%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, a week - on - week increase of 2.93%, and the upward trend continued. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of production increase was relatively high [2]. - The current agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, with overall trading atmosphere being tepid. Downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods and mostly adopt a just - in - time purchasing strategy. Industrial demand maintains rigid procurement, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions [2]. - As the downstream compound fertilizer industrial demand continues to advance, local agricultural demand shows an increasing trend. Some urea enterprises achieve a balance between production and sales, and the shipment speed of some enterprises accelerates. However, as the urea price rises, the downstream's trend of chasing price increases may slow down, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited [2]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1770 - 1830 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1814 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea was 30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 253,756 lots, a week - on - week increase of 23,507 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea was - 21,087 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 4,047 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 13,355 lots, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong were 1740 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the prices in Jiangsu and Anhui were 1750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 74 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the main Chinese ports were 367.5 dollars/ton and 402.5 dollars/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 140,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 tons; the enterprise inventory was 1.0222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises was 83.22%, a week - on - week increase of 2.93%; the daily urea output was 195,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 tons [2]. - The urea export volume was 600,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600,000 tons; the monthly urea output was 6,000,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 37.17%, a week - on - week increase of 3.28%; the operating rate of melamine was 54.35%, a week - on - week increase of 6.7% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 244 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 152 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 28,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,100 tons or 3.53% [2]. - As of January 8, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 140,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 tons or 18.60%. The quantity of goods leaving the ports increased this week, and some ports were loading and departing. In addition, the pace of manufacturers' goods collection at ports was slow, and most ports remained at a low level under the constraints of quotas and other conditions [2]. - As of January 8, the resumption of some previously overhauled devices drove the increase in domestic urea production. There were no plans for enterprise device shutdowns this week, and the devices of two shut - down enterprises might resume production [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current national cotton inspection in the domestic market is accelerating, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. With the quota issuance, port pick - up has increased, and Brazilian cotton has started to arrive in a concentrated manner, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. As of the week of January 8th, the inventory at major ports of imported cotton increased by 0.55% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 39.95 tons. The downstream textile mills have limited orders, lower than the previous year's level, and some weaving factories may have early holidays. However, due to the general expectation of a decline in cotton planting area in the new year, it provides some support for the cotton market. The market is waiting for the 2026 cotton target subsidy policy. Additionally, the January USDA supply - demand report is bullish, and the center of short - term cotton prices is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and policy factors [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,835 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: -177,257 lots, up 5,200 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: -1,722 lots, up 217 lots - Cotton main contract open interest: 842,369 lots, up 5,210 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest: 15,756 lots, down 276 lots - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 8,836 lots, up 426 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 70 lots, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex: 3128B): 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s): 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff): 12,616 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty): 13,735 yuan/ton, unchanged - Imported cotton yarn (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) arrival price: 21,026 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; imported cotton yarn (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s) arrival price: 22,353 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,330 yuan/ton, down 187 yuan - National industrial inventory of cotton: 85 tons, up 6.5 tons; national commercial inventory of cotton: 468.36 tons, up 175.3 tons - Cotton import volume (monthly): 12 tons, up 3 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons - Imported cotton profit: 2,235 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days - Monthly cloth output: 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 203.9 tons, up 3.8 tons - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export amount: 11,593,686 million US dollars, up 5,902,055,700 US dollars; monthly textile yarns, fabrics and products export amount: 12,275,733,101,731.408 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options: 13.12%, down 0.23%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options: 13.12%, down 0.22% - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 13.49%, up 0.15%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 8.98%, up 0.14% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of 24:00 on January 12, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2025/26 season was 30,208,714 bales, totaling 6,819,192 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.20%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6,592,380 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.45% - ICE cotton futures were generally stable on Tuesday, supported by the USDA supply - demand report. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.03 cents, or 0.05%, at 64.88 cents per pound [2]