Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, rapeseed oil futures oscillated and closed lower. The 01 - contract closed at 9,816 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton from the previous week. Although the significant decline in Canadian rapeseed exports exerts pressure, the Canadian bio - fuel production incentive plan, with rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and the agreement between Canada and Pakistan to promote rapeseed exports are positive factors. However, the possible delay of the US bio - fuel import incentive cut plan and the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil drag down the international oil market. Domestically, the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has not reached an agreement on rapeseed tariffs. The supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened in the near term, and oil mills are mostly shut down, so rapeseed oil will continue to destock, supporting its price. But the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil limit rapeseed oil demand to mostly rigid demand. The short - term price fluctuation has increased, and short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: This week, rapeseed meal futures continued to decline. The 01 - contract closed at 2,431 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. The unexpected downward adjustment of US soybean exports by USDA triggered selling, but good domestic consumption and Chinese purchases of US soybeans support the US soybean market. Domestically, the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on rapeseed tariffs, restricting the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near term. With oil mills mostly shut down, the supply pressure is small. However, due to the decline in water temperature, the demand for aquaculture has weakened, and the rigid demand for rapeseed meal has decreased. Also, the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean meal have weakened the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The market has declined recently with increased volatility, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - Canadian trade policy can make a breakthrough [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 01 - contract price decreased by 107 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The market is affected by both international and domestic factors, with short - term price fluctuations increasing. Short - term trading is recommended [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 01 - contract price decreased by 59 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures rose significantly at the low level this week, with a total position of 243,824 lots, a decrease of 4,656 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures continued to decline, with a total position of 356,184 lots, a decrease of 116,496 lots from last week [15]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures were +4,542, a slight decrease from +5,946 last week. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures changed from a net long position of +27,455 last week to a net short position of - 10,587 this week [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 4,033 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [26]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,160 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was +344 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 11 yuan/ton [35][41]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +391 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +64 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [46]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 01 - contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 4.038, and the average spot price ratio was 4.06 [49]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals**: The 01 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,626 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,266 yuan/ton, both with narrow fluctuations this week. The 01 - contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 581 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 600 yuan/ton as of Thursday [59][65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Rapeseed - Supply**: As of November 14, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 0.25 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in November, December, and January 2025 were 1, 60, and 36.5 tons respectively. The import rapeseed spot crushing profit was +1,177 yuan/ton as of November 20. The crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 0 tons in the 46th week of 2025, with an operating rate of 0%. The total import volume of rapeseed in September 2025 was 11.53 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.14 tons [71][75][79][83]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Supply**: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 48.3 tons, a decrease of 3.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.40%. The total import volume of rapeseed oil in September 2025 was 15.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.99% and a month - on - month increase of 1.90 tons [87]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Demand**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 495 tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly retail sales of catering were 519.9 billion yuan. As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 3.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 9.28% [91][95]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Supply**: As of the end of the 46th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 0.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 60.0%. The total import volume of rapeseed meal in September 2025 was 15.77 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.57 tons [99][103]. - **Rapeseed Meal - Demand**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3128.7 tons [107]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 21, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 20.67%, a 0.02% increase from last week, and it was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [110].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The SA2601 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, with a recommended focus range of 1130 - 1210. The FG2601 is expected to oscillate bearishly, with a recommended focus range of 950 - 1050 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: As of November 20, the soda ash futures dropped 4.4%, and the glass futures fell 4.46%. Soda ash futures declined due to insufficient demand, and glass futures continued to fall due to poor real - estate demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, the supply side is in a capacity expansion phase. The 1 - million - ton natural soda project of Yuanning Energy's Alxa Base entered the commissioning stage in mid - November, and other expansion projects are in progress. Although there was a temporary inventory reduction, the inventory pressure remains high. The demand side is weak, with the float glass industry (accounting for about 60% of soda ash demand) being sluggish and the new capacity release of photovoltaic glass slowing down. The cost support is weakening. For glass, the supply side faces capacity release pressure and high inventory. The demand side shows seasonal weakness, with poor real - estate completion demand and low orders from deep - processing enterprises. The cost does not provide substantial support [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: As of November 20, 2025, the closing price of soda ash futures was 1158 yuan/ton, and that of glass futures was 989 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: As of November 20, 2025, the spot price of soda ash in the Shahe market was 1130 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 28 yuan/ton. The spot price of glass in the Shahe market was 989 yuan/ton, and the basis was 11 yuan/ton. The soda ash - glass spread was 169 yuan/ton. All spreads are expected to weaken next week [17][23][27]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: As of November 20, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 82.68%, a 2.12% decline from the previous period, and the weekly output was 72.09 tons, a 2.48% decline. The output is expected to decrease next week [34]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was 164.44 tons, a 0.44% decline, and the inventory of glass enterprises was 63.303 million weight boxes, a 0.09% increase [40]. - **Profit**: As of November 20, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - ton joint - alkali method was - 235 yuan/ton, and the cost was 1876 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 120 yuan/ton, and the cost was 1395 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 206.84 yuan/ton, a 10.19% decline; using coal - made gas was 25.79 yuan/ton, a 49.68% decline; using petroleum coke was 8.52 yuan/ton, a decline [45]. - **Glass Production**: As of November 20, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), with 221 in production and 75 cold - repaired. The national float glass output was 111.02 tons, a 0.33% decline from the previous period, and the output is expected to remain low next week [49]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of November 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 68.35%, unchanged from the previous period, and the daily melting volume was 89380 tons/day, unchanged from the previous period. Both are expected to weaken next week [53]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of November 17, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.9 days, indicating low demand [57].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Natural Rubber Market Weekly Report [3] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - In the near future, the weather in Yunnan has improved, reducing the impact on rubber tapping. Driven by winter storage demand, concentrated latex factories have raised prices to purchase raw materials. In Hainan, the weather is fair, but the temperature has dropped, leading to a decline in the dry content of latex. Local processing plants have entered the winter storage phase and continue to offer higher prices for raw materials [9]. - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to increase. The bonded warehouse is experiencing destocking, while the general trade inventory continues to rise. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level. Factories replenished their stocks earlier, and most of the out - bound goods from the general trade warehouse are for previous orders. The downstream's willingness to stock up is low, and there are few new orders [9]. - In terms of demand, tire companies' orders are insufficient. Some companies have scheduled maintenance, and others are operating at reduced capacity, dragging down the tire production capacity utilization rate. As the production of maintenance companies gradually resumes, the production capacity utilization rate of tire companies may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement is limited, and companies will continue to control production [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market showed a divergence in the trends of light and dark rubber, with rubber prices rising and falling. The buying sentiment in the imported rubber market was weak, while the spot price of domestic natural rubber increased. The futures market fluctuated upwards, improving the trading sentiment [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The weather in Yunnan has improved, and winter storage demand has led to price increases for raw materials. In Hainan, the temperature has dropped, and local processing plants are in the winter storage phase. Qingdao Port's total inventory continues to increase, with the bonded warehouse destocking and general trade inventory rising. Tire companies' orders are insufficient, but production capacity utilization may recover slightly next week [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,700 [9]. 4.2 Futures and Spot Markets 4.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16%, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber also closed up with a weekly increase of 0.16% [12]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific position analysis results are provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of November 21, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 80, and the spread between 20 - rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 39,600 tons, a decrease of 68,870 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 49,795 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [27]. 4.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 20, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week [31]. - **20 - rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of November 20, the 20 - rubber basis was 773 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 4.3 Industry Situation 4.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 21, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57 (+0.7) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump price was 52.95 (+0.85) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 32.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.6 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of November 20, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [43]. 4.3.2 Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [47]. 4.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons, an increase of 0.70%. The bonded area inventory was 66,600 tons, a decrease of 1.76%; the general trade inventory was 386,000 tons, an increase of 1.13%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 0.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.53 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.71 percentage points [50]. 4.4 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [53]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%; the exports of truck and bus tires were 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [56]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Duty Truck Sales)**: In October 2025, China's heavy - duty truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September this year and a significant year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - duty truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market continued to decline. The core contradiction of oversupply at the port remained unchanged, and the market lacked driving forces for improvement due to multiple negative factors such as abundant supply and weak downstream demand. In the near term, the overall methanol production increased as the output from restored production capacity exceeded the loss from maintenance and production cuts. The inventory of inland enterprises continued to decline, and the port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the port methanol market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the port methanol market declined. The price in Jiangsu and Guangdong fluctuated between 1970 - 2090 yuan/ton. Inland supply shortages briefly improved local transactions, but the core contradiction of port oversupply remained [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland enterprise inventory declined, and port inventory decreased. The short - term port - to - inland arbitrage space may remain open, and the high inventory may continue to suppress the market. The olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly this week and is expected to remain stable next week [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 2.48% [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of November 21, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 134 [15]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 20, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 6,581, a decrease of 4,998 from last week [24]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 20, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2,007.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 47.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 20, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 233 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 84 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week [32]. - **Basis**: As of November 20, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 8.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.5 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of November 19, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of November 20, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.1 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [40]. 3.3.2 Industry - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of November 20, China's methanol production was 2,014,185 tons, an increase of 41,210 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 88.77%, a month - on - month increase of 2.09% [43]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 246,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%. The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1,479,300 tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous data. Both the East and South China regions saw inventory decreases [49]. - **Import Volume and Profit**: In October 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.6126 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 11.2793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of November 20, the methanol import profit was - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.96 yuan/ton from last week [52]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Operating Rate**: As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12%. The load of East China olefin enterprises was slightly adjusted, and the overall weekly average operating rate increased slightly [55]. - **Profit**: As of November 20, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 448 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton from last week [58].

Market Overview - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 3.29% on November 21, with Ruida Futures leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the diversified financial sector showed varied performance, with Jiangsu Jinzu remaining unchanged at 6.45, while Ruida Futures fell by 6.28% to 21.05 [2] - Other notable declines included Yalian Development down 6.18% and Jiuding Investment down 5.99% [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The total net outflow of main funds in the diversified financial sector was 870 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 756 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for Jiangsu Jinzu was 335,600 shares, with a transaction amount of 216 million yuan, while Ruida Futures had a trading volume of 149,100 shares and a transaction amount of 320 million yuan [2][3] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Bohai Leasing had a net inflow of 11.66 million yuan from main funds, while Jiangsu Jinzu saw a net inflow of 3.58 million yuan [3] - Conversely, stocks like Yalian Development and Jiuding Investment experienced significant net outflows from main funds, amounting to 6.68 million yuan and 7.94 million yuan respectively [3]

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-11-20 施压，但下方国内需求边际好转，盘面上，近期棉价存在止跌迹象，短期暂且观望。 研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13465 | -20 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19745 | -50 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -83369 | -3799 棉纱期货前20名净持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 2025/26 season due to favorable weather in major Asian producing countries, causing ICE raw sugar futures to decline on Wednesday. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures fell 0.04 cents, or 0.30%, to settle at 14.66 cents per pound [2]. - The China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that China's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will reach 11.7 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons from last month's forecast. This is mainly due to a slight increase in the national sugar - cane planting area, good growth of southern sugar - cane, and a slight increase in the sugar content of northern sugar - beets. Currently, 26 sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an estimated total output of 1.4 million tons. Five sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, and nine in Guangxi have started production, 17 fewer than the same period last year. Recent continuous rainfall in the production areas has delayed the start of production. However, sugar imports increased significantly in October, and sugar prices are expected to remain low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest was 402,945 lots, an increase of 14,936 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 7,982, a decrease of 446. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 57,812 lots. The total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 183, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 5,107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan; that of Brazilian sugar was 4,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan; in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,740 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1.48 million hectares, an increase of 60,000 hectares. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 835,090 hectares, a decrease of 12,860 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 5.49%. The cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi were 6.0229 million tons, an increase of 26.66%. The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan was 2.4188 million tons, unchanged. Brazil's total sugar exports were 4.205 million tons, an increase of 959,200 tons. The monthly sugar import volume was 750,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume was 3.16 million tons, an increase of 550,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 539,100 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. The monthly output of soft drinks was 15.917 million tons, a decrease of 1.841 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 7.48%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 7.48%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility was 7.35%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 7.02%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In October 2025, China imported 35,900 tons of aqueous solutions of cane or beet sugar (HS code 17029011), 1,700 tons of other solid sugars, syrups, artificial honey, and caramel without added flavors or colorants (HS code 17029090), and 29,700 tons of flavored or colored aqueous solutions of cane or beet sugar (HS code 21069061), with a total of 67,300 tons for the three types of syrups. The import of simple solid mixtures of cane sugar, beet sugar, and other sugars with a sucrose content of over 50% (HS code 17029012) was 3,200 tons, and that of mixtures with other food raw materials (HS code 21069062) was 45,000 tons, with a total of 48,200 tons for the two types of premixes. The total import of the above - mentioned various types was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [2].

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/11/20 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,050.00 | -20↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1573323 | -57810↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -105874 | -5566↓ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -49 | -3↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed policymakers were seriously divided on whether to cut interest rates in December at the end - of - last - month monetary policy meeting. The number of those who thought no more rate cuts were needed this year exceeded those in favor of rate cuts, and some centrists would depend on data. Almost all agreed to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet (shrinking the balance sheet) [2] - The BLS will not release the October non - farm payroll report but include relevant employment data in the November report, which will be released on December 16, more than a week later than originally planned and after the Fed's last meeting this year [2] - In the raw material segment, the rainy season is approaching in the Philippines and the nickel ore grade is declining, leading to tight raw material inventories of domestic ferronickel plants. However, the ferronickel production in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the ferronickel price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of steel mills has been restored. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and the expected demand from infrastructure and real estate, the production schedule of stainless - steel plants is expected to increase, leading to increased supply pressure [2] - On the demand side, the demand peak season shows weak characteristics, with low market purchasing willingness, and general overall inquiry and transaction performance. Therefore, the national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase trend [2] - Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong, and it is at the lower edge of the downward channel. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,285 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,970 lots, an increase of 2,685 lots; the main - contract position volume is 192,398 lots, an increase of 8,566 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 65,340 tons, a decrease of 2,970 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 560 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 895 yuan/nickel point, down 5 yuan [2] - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 591,200 tons, an increase of 20,400 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 4,000 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, a decrease of 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - For the corn market, the USDA report is slightly bearish, but the recent strength of US soybeans and wheat has boosted the price of US corn. In the domestic market, the purchase price in the Northeast region has increased, but the upward momentum is insufficient. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the price increase has slowed down. The corn futures price has slightly declined recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For the starch market, the supply pressure has increased with the increase in new - season corn supply and industry operating rate. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, and the downstream demand is acceptable. The starch inventory has decreased. The starch price has declined in tandem with the corn market recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2168 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2473 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holdings of corn starch is - 116,653 hands, and that of corn is - 43,793 hands. The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 69,337 hands, and those of corn starch are 12,453 hands. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 343 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - The futures closing price of CBOT corn (active contract) is 429.75 cents per bushel, down 5.75 cents per bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1,550,059 contracts, an increase of 6,994 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 81,307 contracts, a decrease of 30,121 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2,278.82 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory quotes of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,560 yuan/ton, 2,800 yuan/ton, and 2,730 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The import CIF price of corn is 2,034.86 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.17 yuan/ton. The basis of the corn starch main contract is 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton; the basis of the corn main contract is 110.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 427.11 million hectares, 131 million hectares, 53 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively. The predicted yields are 36.44 million tons, 22.6 million tons, 7.5 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and no data respectively. The corn inventories in southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 86.6 million tons, 124 million tons, and 273.5 million tons respectively, with the deep - processing inventory decreasing by 6 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12,780 tons, a decrease of 2,020 tons. The monthly output of feed is 2,015 million tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days are 25.61 days [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.65 million tons. The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 27 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 28 yuan/ton respectively. The operating rates of alcohol enterprises and starch enterprises are 67.29% and 60.89% respectively, with the starch enterprise operating rate decreasing by 2.59 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 8.2% and 7.69% respectively, with the 60 - day historical volatility decreasing by 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options of corn are both 7.99%, with an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazil's corn export volume in November 2025 is expected to reach 6.36 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and last year's level. The estimated sown area of US corn in 2026 is 95 million acres, a decrease of 3.7 million acres or 3.8% compared to 2025. The US corn harvest is almost over, and the short - term supply pressure is high [2].