1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage where supply is slightly convergent and demand is generally stable. The current oversupply situation may improve with production control. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of temporary supply - demand stability with a slight accumulation of social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of convergent supply and slightly reduced demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton, and that of alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 59 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 21,530 yuan/ton, and that of the alumina futures main contract decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 2,732 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 9,251 lots to 338,582 lots, and that of alumina decreased by 14,819 lots to 411,305 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum canceled warrants remained unchanged at 55,300 tons, and the total alumina inventory remained unchanged at 253,654 tons [2]. - The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation increased by 25 dollars/ton to 2,814.5 dollars/ton, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 546,075 tons [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum decreased by 12,952 lots to 4,291 lots, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.08 to 7.65 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum increased by 20 yuan/ton to 21,570 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,770 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country remained unchanged at 21,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum increased by 30 yuan/ton to 21,560 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 670 yuan/ton, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 60 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum premium increased by 2.93 dollars/ton to - 32.88 dollars/ton [2]. - The basis of alumina increased by 3 yuan/ton to 38 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region remained unchanged at 5,780 yuan/ton, and the alumina production decreased by 13.40% to 786.50 million tons [2]. - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 21.49 million tons to 704.31 million tons, and the supply - demand balance of alumina increased by 18.12 million tons to 46.85 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap increased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, and the import quantity of aluminum scrap and scraps in China increased by 2,945.61 tons to 158,360.01 tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap remained unchanged at 16,550 yuan/ton, and the export quantity of aluminum scrap and scraps in China decreased by 36.08 tons to 32.46 tons [2]. - The export quantity of alumina decreased by 7.00 million tons to 18.00 million tons, and the WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance increased by 1.45 million tons to - 10.54 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of alumina increased by 12.93 million tons to 18.93 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.10 million tons to 59.70 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import quantity of primary aluminum increased by 4,462 tons to 248,261.37 tons, and the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained unchanged at 4,523.20 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of primary aluminum decreased by 4,396.36 tons to 24,573.56 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum operating rate decreased by 0.12% to 98.24% [2]. - The production of aluminum products decreased by 20.60 million tons to 569.40 million tons, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.82 million tons to 60.83 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 2.00 million tons to 50.00 million tons, and the export quantity of aluminum alloy increased by 0.74 million tons to 3.09 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots remained unchanged at 126.00 million tons, and the National Housing Prosperity Index decreased by 0.34 to 92.43 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 168.20 million tons [2]. - The automobile production increased by 5.25 million vehicles to 327.90 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.07% to 11.80%, and the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.03% to 10.24% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0044% to 10.51%, and the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options increased by 0.0408 to 1.41 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed that there was a serious divergence among policymakers when cutting interest rates last month. Many officials thought it might be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged in the remaining time of 2025, while some believed another rate cut in December was likely appropriate. Almost all agreed to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [2]. - As of the end of October, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (guns) in China reached 18.645 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.0%. Among them, the number of public charging facilities (guns) was 4.533 million, a year - on - year increase of 39.5% [2]. - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing investigated the digital and intelligent transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and the innovation and development of state - owned enterprises in Guizhou and Chongqing, emphasizing accelerating the transformation and upgrading, promoting innovation, and developing new quality productivity [2]. - The 8th China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference issued the "Chengdu Declaration", advocating promoting the optimization of production capacity structure and building a collaborative development ecosystem [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply - side pressure is small due to the limited import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal and the shutdown of coastal oil mills. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening as aquaculture demand decreases with the drop in temperature, and soybean supply is relatively abundant with good substitution advantages. The market has large fluctuations recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Later, attention should be paid to whether there are breakthroughs in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The international oil market is weak, but the domestic rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. However, the demand for rapeseed oil is mainly for rigid needs because of the abundant supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil. After a continuous rise, the rapeseed oil futures price has slightly declined recently, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9779 yuan/ton, down 34; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2412 yuan/ton, down 7; the closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 650.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 5.7; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 5551 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 380 yuan/ton, up 17; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 35 yuan/ton, up 3 [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 233465 lots, down 9832; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 377665 lots, down 9671. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are - 3446 lots, down 2701; for rapeseed meal are - 22471 lots, down 5559 [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 4131, down 30; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2000, unchanged [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10070 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of rapeseed oil is 10163.75 yuan/ton, down 100; the import cost of rapeseed is 7986.7 yuan/ton, down 89.01 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 66; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is - 12 yuan/ton, up 7 [2]. **Substitute Spot Prices** - The spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8560 yuan/ton, down 100; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8670 yuan/ton, down 70; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3000 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. - The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1510 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 30; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 600 yuan/ton, down 50 [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports and Profits**: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit is 659 yuan/ton, up 29 [2]. - **Inventory and开机率**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.25 tons, down 0.25 tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Imports**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 tons, up 2 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 tons, down 5.57 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 2.08 tons, down 0.52 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 tons, down 0.3 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 40.05 tons, down 2.37 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 22.96 tons, down 2.49 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 1.48 tons, down 0.32 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 22.3 tons, up 1.5 tons [2]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil is 1.01 tons, down 0.3 tons; the weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed meal is 0.3 tons, up 0.1 tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - The monthly output of feed is 3128.7 tons, up 201.5 tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 495 tons, up 44.4 tons; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 5199 billion yuan, up 690.4 billion yuan [2]. **Options Market** - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.4%, down 0.33; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.96%, down 0.05; the 20 - day historical volatility is 21.43%, down 0.03; the 60 - day historical volatility is 20.4%, down 0.32 [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 13.7%, up 0.24; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 13.69%, up 0.23; the 20 - day historical volatility is 15.04%, up 0.13; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.75%, up 0.05 [2]. **Industry News** - ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on Wednesday, dragged down by the decline of other vegetable oil and crude oil futures. The January rapeseed futures contract fell 6 Canadian dollars and settled at 650.40 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - USDA unexpectedly lowered the US soybean export forecast for 2025/26. Although the domestic soybean crushing consumption in the US is good and Chinese buyers started to purchase US soybeans this week, the soybean market was sold off after the report was released [2]. - The China - Canada trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue. The export of Canadian rapeseed has declined significantly this year, but the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan takes rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan have reached an agreement to promote the export of Canadian rapeseed to Pakistan [2]. - The US government is considering postponing the plan to cut biofuel import incentives by 1 - 2 years, and the palm oil production in Malaysia increased while exports declined in November, with inventory pressure still existing, dragging down the international oil market [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/11/20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,267 | -10↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1152598 | -44323↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -64,809 | +15264↑ HC1 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1158 169 | -24 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -4 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 989 1330158 | -20 -15566 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1943651 | -46850 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -255769 | 7405 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -333971 | -8730 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 207 | -2 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -27 | 12 | | | 玻璃基差 | 11 | 20 1月-5月玻璃合约 | -130 | 0 | | | 1月-5月纯碱合约 | -74 | 1 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1130 | -25 华中重碱(日,元/吨) | 1300 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 华 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences among policymakers on whether to cut interest rates in December, with more people thinking it's not appropriate, and the probability of an interest rate cut this year is expected to decline [3] - Indonesia's RKAB quota this year is relatively loose, but the approval period will be shortened to 1 year next year, increasing raw material supply uncertainty; Philippine nickel ore supply is entering the rainy season with lower ore grades, and domestic nickel ore inventories are at a low level compared to the same period last year [3] - Newly invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. Due to low nickel prices and cost - side pressures, some smelters are reducing production at a loss, so the growth of refined nickel production is expected to be limited [3] - In the demand side, stainless steel mills are not in a strong peak season, but with the decline of nickel - iron costs, steel mill profits are improving, and production volume is expected to increase; new energy vehicle production and sales continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [3] - Domestic nickel inventories continue to grow, the market mainly purchases on demand, and spot premiums are rising; overseas LME inventories are also increasing. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Technically, positions are increasing while prices are adjusting, and the short - selling atmosphere is relatively strong. Short - term Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the MA5 pressure [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 115,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is $14,640/ton, a decrease of $5; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 152,848 lots, an increase of 67,836 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 29,606 lots, an increase of 2,483 lots; LME nickel inventory is 255,846 tons, a decrease of 1,986 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 40,573 tons, an increase of 3,386 tons; the total cancelled warrants of LME nickel is 11,394 tons, a decrease of 2,238 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 34,079 tons, a decrease of 552 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 118,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 118,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is $85/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is $85/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 2,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 870 yuan [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - $197.66/ton, an increase of $2.2 [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 6.1145 million tons, a decrease of 0.2322 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 15.0949 million tons, an increase of 0.2783 million tons [3] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is $56.72/ton, a decrease of $4.61; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is $41.71/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [3] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 0.2112 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 0.0248 million tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 0.5912 million tons, an increase of 0.0204 million tons [3] Industry News - The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences among policymakers on whether to cut interest rates in December, and most agreed to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet [3] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October non - farm payrolls report, and the 11 - month report will be released on December 16, later than the original plan and after the Fed's last meeting this year [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1665 | 2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -70 | 2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 245423 | -3667 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -31813 | 1338 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7183 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1640 | 10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1630 | 20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1640 | 10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1620 | 20 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -25 | 8 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 367.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 400 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 8.2 | 0.3 企业库存(周,万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term port reverse - flow to the mainland arbitrage space may remain continuously open, the import apparent demand may continue to be high, and the port methanol inventory is expected to change little. The high - inventory state may continue to suppress the port methanol market, and the unloading speed of foreign vessels needs to be focused on. The olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly this week, and it is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1970 - 2050 in the short term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2016 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 137 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 192.03. The main contract's open interest is 1,427,833 lots, a decrease of 22,788; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 191,775 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,581, a decrease of 584 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 1,985 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1,960 yuan/ton, an increase of 5. The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 232 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, a decrease of 6. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 85 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.56 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.19 [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0178 million tons, a decrease of 38,600 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 461,500 tons, a decrease of 25,700 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 15.94 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.91. The monthly import volume is 1.4269 million tons, a decrease of 332,900 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons. The methanol enterprise start - up rate is 87.08%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde start - up rate is 41.42%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points; the dimethyl ether start - up rate is 5.33%, a decrease of 0.46 percentage points; the acetic acid start - up rate is 67.13%, a decrease of 2.48 percentage points; the MTBE start - up rate is 70.25%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points; the olefin start - up rate is 89.26%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 448 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.63%, a decrease of 1.35; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.35%, an increase of 0.02. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.66%, an increase of 0.31; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.66%, an increase of 0.31 [2] Industry News - As of November 19, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.86%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 246,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. As of November 19, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4793 million tons, a decrease of 64,300 tons from the previous data. Both East and South China regions saw inventory reduction. Recently, the production capacity loss due to domestic methanol maintenance and production reduction is less than the production capacity output of recovery, and the overall output has increased [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 90.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12%. The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted, and the overall weekly average start - up rate increased slightly. The positive demand from downstream olefin enterprises has a certain positive driving effect on the de - stocking of upstream enterprises, and the inventory of inland enterprises continues to decline. The methanol port inventory decreased this week. Due to the lack of domestic supply and the support of imported goods flowing back, the提货 at East China social warehouses was good, and the overall downstream rigid demand was stable [2] Things to Pay Attention to - Pay attention to the inventory of Longzhong enterprises and port inventory on Wednesday [2]

| | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-11-20 扩大导致的进口增加，并且再生铅开工积极，预计铅库存仍有累积空间。综合来看，沪铅市场整体供应增 长幅度受限，需求增长也面临一定阻力；且库存端预计将继续累积的情况下，继续维持震荡概率加大。今 日沪铅价格维持震荡，盘面未有太大波动，继续关注16980支撑位 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17220 | -30 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2014.5 | -12.5 | | | 12-01月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -20 | 0 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 82766 | -4281 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -3236 | 573 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 42790 | 4208 LME铅库存(日,吨) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report anticipates that Shanghai tin will undergo high - level adjustments, and investors should pay attention to the support at the 290,000 - yuan level. The macro - situation shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates within the year has decreased. Fundamentally, the supply of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily but with limited increments, while imports from Africa and Australia have declined unexpectedly. The supply growth concern has been alleviated due to a significant drop in Indonesia's refined tin exports in October. On the smelting side, raw material shortages are severe, and refined tin production is restricted. On the demand side, high tin prices have dampened the purchasing sentiment of downstream and end - user enterprises. Technically, there is an increase in the divergence between bulls and bears as positions decline and prices fluctuate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 292,030 yuan/ton, down 1,340 yuan; the 12 - January contract closing price is - 500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 36,945 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars. The main contract position volume of Shanghai tin is 24,513 lots, down 3,132 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,357 lots, up 158 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,115 tons, up 60 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,258 tons, up 266 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant is 5,960 tons, down 102 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 291,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 291,610 yuan/ton, down 570 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is - 1,870 yuan/ton, down 2,380 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 100 dollars/ton, up 105.01 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 277,400 yuan/ton, down 2,700 yuan; the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 281,400 yuan/ton, down 2,700 yuan; the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 188,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 19.76 million tons, up 3.1 million tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - The Fed meeting minutes show a serious divergence among policymakers on whether to cut interest rates in December. The number of those who think there is no need for further rate cuts this year is more than those who support rate cuts, and some centrists depend on data. There is almost unanimous agreement to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance - sheet reduction. The US BLS will not release the October non - farm payrolls report but will incorporate relevant data into the November report, which will be released on December 16 [3].

Core Insights - The 19th Shenzhen International Financial Expo and the 2025 China Financial Institutions Annual Conference took place in Shenzhen on November 19-20, highlighting the importance of the financial sector in China [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The "China Futures Industry Annual Conference" forum featured a presentation by the General Manager of Ruida Futures, Ge Chang, emphasizing the significance of developing proactive asset management in the futures sector [1] - Ge Chang stated that the core of futures asset management should focus on risk management, indicating a strategic approach to handling market volatility [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Ruida Futures has demonstrated a high "inclusion of futures" in its managed assets over the years, showcasing strong performance metrics [1] - The company’s historical management scale reflects its commitment to excellence in asset management within the futures industry [1]