Core Insights - The report highlights resilient growth in travel demand during the National Day holiday, with a projected year-on-year increase of 6.2% in cross-regional mobility from October 1 to 8, 2024, surpassing the pre-holiday forecast of 3.2% [4][24] - The consumer services sector underperformed the broader market in September, with the A-share consumer services sector declining by 2.69%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 5.89 percentage points [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support for service consumption, with various measures aimed at enhancing service sector growth and consumer spending [24][25] Subsector Insights Travel Chain Sector - The travel chain sector is expected to benefit from a shift towards experience-driven consumption, with a focus on hotel and retail experiences as the market enters a low season in Q4 [4][24] - Notable performance was observed in specific regions and segments, such as a 22% increase in visitor numbers to Changbai Mountain from October 1 to 3 and significant sales at duty-free stores in Sanya [4][24] - The report suggests monitoring the recovery of the duty-free sector and the hotel industry as supply and demand dynamics stabilize [4][24] Chain Dining Sector - The dining sector shows signs of stabilization, with leading brands in tea and fast food performing well despite concerns over the expansion capabilities of traditional dining models [4][24] - The report recommends focusing on high-quality dining leaders that have adjusted their business models to enhance growth potential [4][24] Education and Human Services Sector - The education sector is poised for growth as external uncertainties diminish, with increased demand for vocational training and educational services [4][24] - The report highlights the potential of AI in education, with ongoing advancements in educational technology expected to drive growth [4][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy, recommending companies such as Trip.com, Atour, Tongcheng Travel, BOSS Zhipin, and others in the consumer services sector [4][24]

Core Insights - Hotel prices are significantly increasing ahead of the National Day holiday, with some hotels raising prices from approximately 90 yuan to around 1000 yuan, representing a more than tenfold increase [2] Price Trends - The overall price trend for hotels in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen shows a notable increase during the National Day period, with a significant differentiation among various hotel brands [2] - Economy and mid-range hotel brands are the most sensitive to the holiday price surge, generally achieving double-digit percentage increases [2] Economy Segment Performance - Among economy brands, Home Inn saw an average price increase of 27.1%, the highest in this category [2] - Hanting followed with a price rise of 20.6%, while Jinjiang Inn experienced a 25.9% increase [2] Mid-Range Segment Performance - In the mid-range category, Vienna Hotels recorded the largest price increase at 32.0% [2] - Other mid-range brands also showed strong performance, with All Seasons increasing by 21.3%, Atour by 18.3%, and Lavande by 15.8% [2] - Orange Crystal exhibited a more moderate increase of 6.2%, indicating its closer positioning to the high-end market [2]

Core Points - Chinese concept stocks in the US market experienced a collective surge, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising nearly 3% [1] - Notable gainers included Century Internet and GDS, both rising over 9%, while Alibaba increased by over 8% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Century Internet (VNET) saw a rise of 9.79% [2] - GDS (万国数据) increased by 9.38% [2] - Alibaba (BABA) rose by 8.47% [2] - Daqin New Energy (DQ) experienced a gain of 7.29% [2] - Elong Power (ELPW) increased by 6.51% [2] - Niu Technologies (NIU) rose by 6.71% [2] - New Oxygen (SY) saw a rise of 6.45% [2] - JD (京东) increased by 5.45% [2] - Kingsoft Cloud (KC) rose by 5.17% [2] - Zhihu (ZH) increased by 5.18% [2] - JinkoSolar (JK) saw a rise of 4.61% [2] - Atour (ATAT) increased by 4.41% [2] - Viomi Technology (VIOT) rose by 4.08% [2] - Weibo (WB) saw an increase of 4.05% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $48.4, representing a potential upside of 21.5% from the current stock price of $39.8 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong growth in retail performance, with a revenue guidance increase for the full year from 50% to 60%, leading to an overall revenue guidance adjustment from 25-30% to 30% [5][6]. - The hotel business is experiencing sequential improvement, and the retail business continues to outperform expectations, contributing to a second growth curve for the company [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25Q2, total revenue reached 2.469 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 29.69%. The breakdown includes rental store revenue of 150 million RMB (down 17.0%), franchise store revenue of 1.299 billion RMB (up 23.5%), and retail business revenue of 965 million RMB (up 79.8%) [3][5]. - The GAAP net profit for Q2 was 425 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, with a net profit margin of 17.2%. The Non-GAAP net profit was 427 million RMB, up 30.2%, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 17.3% [3][5]. - The company reported a GMV of 1.144 billion RMB for Q2 in its retail business, reflecting an 84.6% year-on-year increase, with online channel revenue exceeding 90% and a gross margin growth to 53.3% [5][6]. Store Expansion and Brand Development - As of the end of Q2, the total number of stores was 1,824, with 118 new openings and 20 closures, maintaining a rapid expansion pace. The company has a record high of 816 reserve stores, indicating strong interest from franchisees [4][5]. - The company has successfully launched over 30 Atour 4.0 hotels and opened its flagship hotel in Shenzhen, achieving a RevPAR exceeding 800 RMB in its first month [4]. Membership Growth and Hotel Performance - The overall occupancy rate (OCC) for the hotel business was 76.4%, with an average daily rate (ADR) of 433 RMB and a revenue per available room (RevPAR) of 343 RMB, showing a narrowing decline compared to previous quarters [5]. - The number of registered members reached 10.26 million, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%, with corporate agreement sales accounting for 20.0% of total sales nights [5].

Group 1: Company Research - China Resources Land (1109) achieved a revenue of HKD 949 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%[5] - The overall gross margin improved to 24.0%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, with the development business gross margin rising 3.2 percentage points to 15.6%[5] - The company maintained a buy rating with a target price of HKD 39.20, representing a potential upside of 21.7%[9] Group 2: Financial Performance - China Power (2380) reported a total revenue of RMB 238.6 billion in H1 2025, a decrease of 9.9% year-on-year, while EBITDA increased by 5.6% to RMB 155 billion[12] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 25.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[12] - The company maintained a buy rating with a target price of HKD 4.73, indicating a potential upside of 37%[16] Group 3: Retail and Hotel Sector - Atour Hotel (ATAT) reported a total revenue of RMB 2.469 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.69%[19] - The retail business revenue reached RMB 9.65 billion, up 79.8% year-on-year, leading to an upward revision of the annual revenue guidance from 50% to 60%[24] - The company maintained a buy rating with a target price of USD 48.40, representing a potential upside of 21.5%[25]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The service consumption in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, currently at approximately 30% compared to 70% in the US, indicating substantial growth potential [1][2] - The new policies aim to enhance service consumption, particularly in the cultural and tourism sectors, with local governments actively improving service quality [1][2] Key Policy Insights - Five major increments in the new policy include: 1. Optimizing student holiday arrangements to explore spring and autumn breaks, benefiting tourism [1][4] 2. Encouraging IP collaborations to promote cross-industry partnerships [1][4] 3. Linking sports events with cultural tourism to boost consumer engagement [1][4] 4. Promoting AI applications in various sectors such as e-commerce and education [1][4] 5. Regulating non-academic training institutions to encourage market-oriented vocational training [1][4] Impact on Specific Sectors - **Tourism and Hospitality**: - The expansion of the visa-free entry policy is expected to significantly boost inbound tourism, particularly benefiting major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, as well as OTA platforms and hotels [3][9][12] - **Cultural and Sports Events**: - The policy encourages the introduction of international sports events and supports local sports activities, which will benefit event organizers and related industries, enhancing investor expectations [1][6] - **Education and Training**: - The new regulations for non-academic training institutions will favor companies like New Oriental and others in the vocational training sector [7][8] Financial and Economic Support - The government plans to utilize central budget investments and local special bonds to support cultural tourism and elderly care facilities, which will attract social capital investment [13] - Financial tools will be employed to increase credit availability, directly benefiting companies involved in consumer lending, such as Chongqing Department Store [13] Additional Considerations - The adjustment of student holiday schedules is anticipated to increase tourism frequency while alleviating congestion during peak seasons [11][12] - The integration of AI in service sectors is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, indicating a significant trend in future consumption development [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the service consumption sector, including Gu Ming, Mi Xue, Cha Bai Dao, Xiao Cai Yuan, Da Shi, and others [7][8]. Core Insights - The recent policy measures aimed at expanding service consumption are expected to boost the service sector, particularly in areas such as cultural tourism, IP consumption, and elderly care [1][2]. - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in China's service consumption, with the current contribution of service industry value added to GDP at 57%, compared to around 70% in developed countries, indicating room for expansion [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality service supply and the integration of new technologies and business models to enhance the service sector [1][4]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The report outlines five key areas with 19 specific measures to promote service consumption, including the cultivation of service consumption platforms and the enhancement of high-quality service supply [3][4]. - Specific initiatives include optimizing cultural product offerings, extending operating hours for tourist attractions, and promoting long-term care insurance [3]. Market Performance - As of August 2025, retail and catering revenue reached 449.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [4]. - Domestic travel during the first half of 2025 saw 3.285 billion trips, a 20.6% increase year-on-year, with spending reaching 3.15 trillion yuan, up 15.2% [4]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with growth potential and strong market positions, such as Gu Ming, Mi Xue, and others, which are expected to benefit from policy support and industry consolidation [5][8]. - Specific companies highlighted for their growth potential include Gu Ming (1364 HK), Mi Xue Group (2097 HK), and others, with target prices set for each [8][12]. Financial Performance - Gu Ming reported a 34.4% year-on-year increase in GMV to 14.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 1.625 billion yuan, reflecting a 121.5% increase [13]. - Mi Xue Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 14.87 billion yuan, a 39.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.69 billion yuan, up 42.9% [15]. Growth Outlook - The report anticipates that as the new measures are implemented, the service sector will experience a surge in high-quality supply and innovative business models, driving domestic demand growth [4][5].

Market Performance - On September 11, US stock indices reached historical highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.85%, Nasdaq up 0.72%, and Dow Jones up 1.36% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Micron Technology rising 7.55%, Tesla up 6.04%, and Apple up 1.43%, while Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon saw slight declines [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 2.89%, with notable gains from companies like Global Data and Century Internet, which rose over 14%, and Alibaba, which rose 8% [1] AI Chip Development - Alibaba and Baidu have reportedly begun using self-designed chips for training their AI models, partially replacing Nvidia's chips, although neither company has confirmed this information [1] Unemployment Claims - The number of first-time unemployment claims in the US reached 263,000, marking the highest level since October 2021, with an increase of 27,000 from the previous week [3] Inflation Data - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while the core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [5] Federal Reserve Expectations - Following the CPI data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is estimated at 89.1%, with a 10.9% chance for a 50 basis point cut [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by Atour, a hotel brand, in maintaining its pricing strategy amidst increasing competition and changing market dynamics, particularly in the context of corporate travel budgets being tightened [3][20][22]. Group 1: Pricing and Market Position - Atour's average room price exceeds 400 yuan, making it unaffordable for many corporate travelers whose accommodation standards are often below this threshold [4][20]. - Comparatively, Atour's pricing is higher than that of its competitor, Hanting, with a RevPAR of 343 yuan and an ADR of 433 yuan, indicating a premium positioning in the market [9][20]. - The hotel brand's pricing strategy is under pressure as the industry faces a decline in key performance indicators, with RevPAR down by 4.3% and ADR decreasing by approximately 8 yuan [20][22]. Group 2: Operational Strategy and Challenges - Atour is shifting towards a lighter asset model, focusing on franchise operations to reduce costs while aiming for expansion, with a target of 2000 stores by year-end [15][20]. - The brand's emphasis on personalized service and unique experiences is becoming a standard expectation in the industry, leading to increased competition [17][22]. - Recent controversies, such as price gouging incidents, have raised concerns about Atour's management efficiency and public perception [16][20]. Group 3: Retail Business Development - Atour's retail segment, particularly its "Atour Planet" brand, has shown promising growth, with sales of its flagship product, the "Deep Sleep Pillow PRO," exceeding 11 billion yuan in revenue [23][24]. - The retail business is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a compound annual growth rate of 32% from 2024 to 2030 [24]. - However, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of this growth, as the retail sector is not Atour's primary focus and may face challenges in establishing long-term brand value [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic service consumption market is undergoing structural changes by 2025, with offline retail, AI applications, and experiential consumption becoming the focal points for investment. The overall growth rate of commodity consumption is slowing, while the service consumption sector shows greater resilience and vitality [1]. Group 1: Offline Retail Restructuring - Instant retail and local life platforms are rapidly developing, leading to accelerated industry consolidation. Major platforms like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com are heavily investing in offline retail and delivery channels, creating a new ecosystem of online and offline integration. By 2024, Meituan's instant retail orders are expected to exceed 150 million, with both rider volume and revenue experiencing growth [2]. - The restaurant industry's chain rate continues to rise, with leading companies expanding their market share. By 2024, China's restaurant chain rate is projected to reach 23%, with the mass convenience restaurant market size around 4 trillion yuan. The segment with a customer price of 50-100 yuan is expected to surpass 3.4 trillion yuan by 2028 [2]. - The hotel sector is also undergoing a brand reshuffle, with Huazhu Group operating 12,137 stores and Atour Hotels exceeding 1,800 stores. Mid-to-high-end brands are increasing their market share through continuous upgrades and expansion into lower-tier markets [3]. Group 2: Acceleration of AI Applications - The application of artificial intelligence in the social service industry is advancing. For instance, Keri International's "He Wa" platform operated over 37,000 job postings in the first half of the year, with more than 200,000 recommendations, continuously upgrading its AI recruitment functions [4]. - In the education sector, policies are becoming clearer, with Tianli International Education developing AI companion products deployed in 107 schools nationwide, serving over 250,000 teachers and students, thus promoting digital transformation in K12 and vocational education [4]. - The exhibition industry is also benefiting from AI, with companies like Miao Exhibition leading the way with comprehensive AI exhibition solutions, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in terms of the number of countries, exhibitions, and booth sizes [4]. Group 3: High Prosperity of Experiential Consumption - The cultural tourism and sports industries are core beneficiaries of experiential consumption. In the first half of 2025, domestic travel reached 3.285 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with total tourism expenditure at 3.15 trillion yuan. Scenic spots like Changbai Mountain and Jiuhua Mountain have seen revenues recover and exceed 2019 levels [5]. - The sports industry is experiencing significant spending increases, with high demand for events, training, and fitness services. Companies like Keep, Inpai, and Lisheng Sports are performing exceptionally well. Emerging demands from lower-tier markets and the elderly population are creating new growth points for service-oriented consumption in cultural tourism and sports [5]. - The report highlights three investment lines in the service consumption sector: offline retail restructuring, AI applications enhancing service efficiency, and the high prosperity of experiential consumption, with companies like Meituan, Alibaba, JD.com, Huazhu Group, and Keep being key focuses [5].