阿里云：AI驱动下的全栈布 局与全球扩张机遇 白洋 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080520110002 SFC CE Ref：BGN055 yang3.bai@cicc.com.cn 徐卓楠 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080520080008 SFC CE Ref：BPR695 zhuonan.xu@cicc.com.cn 吴维佳, CFA 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080521010011 SFC CE Ref：BHR850 weijia.wu@cicc.com.cn 王秋婷 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080523030001 SFC CE Ref：BTK905 qiuting.wang@cicc.com.cn 刘泓蔚 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080524020012 hongwei.liu@cicc.com.cn 中金公司研究部 2026-01-14 0 概览 AI渗透与国际化扩张双轮驱动增长 我们估算未来3年阿里云收入CAGR有望超过30%。 利润率提升空间大，盈利韧性有望超预期 随着AI收入占比持续提高、海外高毛利业务占比提升，以及成本端规模效应的进一步显现，我们估算其利润率有 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a volatile rise in early trading on January 19, with all three major indices strengthening, particularly in the electric grid equipment and precious metals sectors [1] - The Hang Seng Index opened lower and continued to decline, with the Hang Seng Technology Index also falling, while new consumption concepts rebounded [2][3] A-shares Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 20.40 points, or 0.50%, to 4122.31 - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 87.61 points, or 0.61%, to 14368.69 - The ChiNext Index gained 14.27 points, or 0.42%, to 3375.29 [1] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 229.97 points, or 0.86%, to 26614.99 - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 43.23 points, or 0.74%, to 5778.95 [2][3] Bond Market - The bond market showed mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.23% and the 10-year main contract down by 0.01% [3][4] Commodity Market - Most domestic commodity futures declined, with notable drops in tin (over 6%) and lithium carbonate (nearly 4%) - Silver and gold prices saw increases, with silver up by 2% and gold by 1% [4][5] Electric Grid Equipment Sector - The electric grid equipment sector saw a surge, with stocks like Shuangjie Electric hitting the daily limit up of 20%, and several others rising over 10% [6][7] Tourism and Hospitality Sector - The tourism and hotel sector showed positive movement, with Jiuhua Tourism hitting the daily limit up and several other hotel stocks also rising, driven by increased travel bookings for the upcoming holiday season [8] AI Application Sector - The AI application sector rebounded, with stocks like Baina Qiancheng rising over 10%, following news of OpenAI testing ad placements in its services [9][11] Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector was active, with Sichuan Gold rising over 9% and other gold stocks following suit, influenced by record high international gold and silver prices [10]

Group 1: Internet Company Revenue and Profit - JD.com leads the revenue chart with 956.8 billion, followed by Alibaba at 731.9 billion and Tencent at 557.4 billion [1] - Alibaba's net profit stands at 76.5 billion, significantly higher than JD.com's 22.3 billion, while Tencent shows a strong profit of 166.6 billion [1] - The profit margin for Tencent is notably high at 30.63%, compared to Alibaba's 10.45% and JD.com's 2.33% [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Insights - The data indicates a competitive landscape among major internet companies, with varying revenue and profit margins suggesting different business strategies and operational efficiencies [1] - The significant profit margins of Tencent may indicate a focus on high-margin services, while JD.com and Alibaba are still scaling their operations [1] Group 3: Financial Performance Overview - The overall financial performance of the top internet companies reflects a diverse range of growth strategies, with some companies prioritizing revenue growth while others focus on profitability [1] - The financial results for the third quarter of 2025 highlight the ongoing evolution of the internet sector in China, with implications for future investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba has established a strong position in the AI application sector through various products, including health assistant "Antifufu," general-purpose assistant "Lingguang," and personal life assistant "Qianwen," suggesting continued investment opportunities in AI applications [1] Group 1: Qianwen App Integration - The Qianwen App has fully integrated into Alibaba's ecosystem, functioning as a super agent that allows users to order food, shop, and book flights through various Alibaba services [2] - It features "Alipay AI Payment" for seamless transactions and has incorporated 50 public service functions, enhancing its utility in daily life [2] - The app's capabilities include human-like understanding and multi-step task execution, positioning it as a significant traffic entry point in the AI era [2] Group 2: Antifufu Health Assistant - Antifufu, launched in June 2025, is an AI health manager that offers over a hundred functions, including health education, consultation, report interpretation, and health record management [3] - As of January 2026, the app has over 30 million monthly active users, with daily inquiries exceeding 10 million, 55% of which come from third-tier cities and below [3] Group 3: Lingguang General-Purpose AI Assistant - Lingguang, introduced in November 2025, is a multi-modal AI assistant that can generate small applications in 30 seconds using natural language [4] - It is the first AI assistant capable of generating multi-modal content, including 3D models, audio, icons, animations, and maps, enhancing communication efficiency [4] - The assistant has launched three main features: "Lingguang Dialogue," "Lingguang Flash Applications," and "Lingguang Open Eye," available on both Android and iOS [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary companies in the industry chain include Shiji Information, Jinqiao Information, Boyan Technology, and others [5] - Continued focus on investment opportunities in AI applications is recommended, with specific companies highlighted such as Kingsoft Office, Hehe Information, and others [5] - Additional beneficiary companies include Zhiyun, Minimax, and various software and technology firms, indicating a broad spectrum of investment potential in the AI sector [5]

Group 1: Important Market News - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration announced that the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans is adjusted to no less than 30% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Domestic commercial aerospace companies are advancing their IPO processes, with China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation's subsidiary, Zhongke Yuhang, changing its listing guidance status to acceptance. The company aims to become the first commercial aerospace stock in China [2] - The satellite communication industry is projected to reach a market size of 200 to 400 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate of 10% to 28%. This sector is transitioning from "concept validation" to "scale application," driven by technological maturity and cost reduction [2] - Major internet companies in China, including Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent, are intensifying competition in AI application products. Alibaba's newly launched Qianwen APP aims to serve as a personal AI assistant, integrating various services within its ecosystem [3][4] - Alibaba's Qianwen APP achieved over 10 million downloads within seven days of its launch, making it the fastest-growing AI application, directly competing with ByteDance's Doubao [4] - The brain-computer interface sector is gaining traction, with significant investments and advancements. A startup, Merge Labs, raised $252 million in seed funding, indicating strong interest in this technology [5][6] - The global market for brain-computer interface medical applications is expected to reach $40 billion by 2030 and $145 billion by 2040, highlighting its potential in treating neurological disorders [6] Group 3: Company Updates - Rongbai Technology is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for misleading statements regarding a major contract [7] - San Da Membrane announced a plan to reduce its shareholding by up to 996,040 shares, representing no more than 3% of its total share capital [7] - He Shi Eye Hospital's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 310,610 shares, accounting for 1.97% of the total share capital [7] - Jinke Environment reported a planned reduction of up to 102,520 shares by a significant shareholder, representing 0.83% of the total share capital [7] - Wei Si Medical announced a plan to reduce its shareholding by up to 287,310 shares, which is 3% of its total share capital [8] - Sifangda's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 483,150 shares, while other executives also plan to sell portions of their shares [8] - Chuhuan Technology reported a planned reduction of up to 239,560 shares by its significant shareholders [8]

Core Insights - HarmonyOS V1.0 has passed the national security reliability assessment, marking its entry into critical industry procurement lists, which is essential for its adoption in sectors like government, finance, and energy [1][5] - HarmonyOS V1.0 is the first operating system to achieve a security reliability level of II, indicating a higher standard in core technology, security assurance, and sustainable development compared to other systems that achieved level I [2][6] - The Chinese "信创" (Xinchuang) industry is experiencing rapid growth, with market size expected to reach 26,559 billion yuan by 2026, driven by key sectors [3] Company Developments - Huawei has previously entered the Xinchuang market with Linux-based operating systems but has now launched the HarmonyOS for its professional computers, which is positioned as a core operating system for government and enterprise markets [4][5] - The competitive landscape in the domestic Xinchuang market is characterized by multiple strong players, but HarmonyOS is expected to leverage its superior application ecosystem and developer appeal to gain an advantage over established systems like Kirin and Tongxin [5][6] Industry Trends - The Xinchuang industry is in a phase of comprehensive promotion, with a predicted market growth rate of 17.84% in 2025 and 26.82% in 2026 [3] - The security reliability assessment results indicate that HarmonyOS is the only operating system with a level II certification, while other server operating systems tested, including those from Huawei and Alibaba, achieved level I [2][6]

A股 Market Updates - On January 15, multiple A-share companies released their performance forecasts for 2025, with many expecting significant profit increases. SAIC Motor Corporation anticipates a net profit growth of up to 558%, while companies like Shengnuo Biological and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials expect increases exceeding 200% [2] - Jiamei Packaging announced that its stock has triggered redemption clauses due to its closing price being above 130% of the conversion price for 15 out of the last 30 trading days [2] - ST Chengchang and Zhizhi New Materials announced their resumption of trading after completing investigations into recent abnormal stock price fluctuations [2] - ST Aowei reported that its stock closed at 0.99 CNY per share, warning that if it remains below 1 CNY for 20 consecutive trading days, it may face delisting from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] Logistics and E-commerce - SF Holding and Jitu Express announced a strategic mutual shareholding agreement, involving an investment transaction amounting to nearly 8.3 billion HKD [3] - Ctrip is under investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation, leading to a significant drop in its stock price, with a 6.49% decline on the day of the announcement and a further 20% drop the following day, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 100 billion CNY [3] Financial Data - In 2025, the total number of new A-share accounts reached 27.44 million, a 10% increase year-on-year, marking a three-year high, with total A-share investors exceeding 250 million [4] - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of 2025, the social financing scale reached 442.12 trillion CNY, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the RMB loan balance was 271.91 trillion CNY, up 6.4% [5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved an adjustment to the margin ratio for financing, increasing the minimum margin requirement from 80% to 100%, effective January 19, 2026 [5] Gold Reserves - As of the end of November 2025, non-U.S. countries' official gold reserves exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately 3.82 trillion USD [6] Infrastructure and Technology - The State Grid Corporation announced that its fixed asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion CNY during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase from the previous plan [7] - Alibaba's Qianwen App has integrated with various Alibaba ecosystem services, launching over 400 AI functionalities to enhance user experience in daily tasks [7] - Shanghai's new action plan aims to implement L4 autonomous driving technology in various scenarios by 2027, targeting over 6 million passenger trips and 800,000 TEU in freight transport [7] Housing Policy - A joint announcement from the Ministry of Finance, State Taxation Administration, and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development extended personal income tax policies supporting housing purchases from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [8] Trade Performance - China's total foreign trade in 2025 reached 45.47 trillion CNY, a 3.8% increase, setting a historical record and maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trading nation [8]

Core Insights - Alibaba's Qianwen App has undergone a significant upgrade, integrating core services such as Taobao, Alipay, and Fliggy into a single interface, allowing users to perform complex tasks with simple commands [3][11] - The app has achieved over 100 million monthly active users within two months of launch, leading to increased ratings from investment banks like JPMorgan and Barclays, which recognize Alibaba as a "full-stack AI leader" in China [4][12] - The integration raises concerns about user privacy and data security, as the app requires extensive data access to function effectively, potentially creating a "privacy black hole" [7][17] Qianwen Evolution - The upgrade represents a "disruptive innovation" in the existing app ecosystem, aiming to eliminate the fragmentation of services that previously required users to switch between multiple applications [5][13] - Qianwen's ability to execute complex tasks is attributed to Alibaba's long-term investment in foundational technologies, enabling the app to understand and process user intentions accurately [6][14] - The new management under CEO Wu Yongming has prioritized AI as a strategic direction, elevating Qianwen to a central role within Alibaba's operations [15][16] Privacy and Security Concerns - The "All in One" model necessitates users to grant extensive data permissions, raising significant privacy concerns as the app collects detailed user profiles [8][18] - Users express fears about potential data breaches, questioning the implications of a centralized system where a single failure could disrupt their digital lives [17][18] - The model may also lead to a monopolistic environment, where third-party developers and smaller businesses could be marginalized, contradicting the open and diverse spirit of the internet [18]

Core Insights - Alibaba's latest Qianwen APP integrates AI functionalities for food delivery, flight booking, and hotel reservations, marking the beginning of the competition for AI entry points in 2026 [1][2] - The competition among major players like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent is intensifying, focusing on the integration of AI into consumer-facing applications [2][5] - The shift from traditional internet entry points to AI-driven interfaces signifies a fundamental change in the logic of traffic distribution and business ecosystems [5][6] Group 1: AI Application Developments - Alibaba's Qianwen APP has achieved over 10 million downloads within seven days of its launch, surpassing records set by ChatGPT and DeepSeek, making it the fastest-growing AI application [2] - ByteDance's Doubao has reached over 100 million daily active users, becoming a leading AI application in China, and has integrated shopping functionalities within Douyin [3] - Tencent's Yuanbao, launched in May 2024, has seen significant user growth due to its integration with DeepSeek and substantial marketing investments [3] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The competition for AI entry points is characterized by a focus on "traffic control rights" and "data and ecosystem construction rights," with the ultimate goal of establishing a sustainable business model [5][6] - The AI entry point battle is not just about user acquisition but also about creating a habitual reliance on AI for consumer needs [6][7] - The positioning of AI applications varies among companies: Alibaba aims for an "AI shopping assistant," ByteDance focuses on "video entertainment," and Tencent explores "social AI" [7] Group 3: Emerging Trends - The emergence of Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) indicates a shift from traditional search engine optimization to AI-driven content adaptation, emphasizing the importance of AI in user interaction [8][9] - The AI application sector has seen a significant increase in stock prices, with some companies experiencing over 100% growth, driven by the GEO concept [9] - Despite the competitive landscape, the commercialization of AI applications remains uncertain, with companies primarily focused on user experience rather than immediate monetization [9]

Core Insights - The emergence of AI Agents marks a significant shift from AI as an auxiliary tool to a core productivity driver, reshaping industry logic and unlocking trillion-dollar market potential [1][5] Group 1: AI Agent Development - Major tech companies are actively developing AI Agents, which are defined as systems that utilize large language models (LLMs) to autonomously manage workflows and tools, moving beyond traditional AI capabilities [2][3] - AI Agents can perform complex tasks such as online ordering and investment decision-making, demonstrating their ability to replace certain human functions rather than merely assist [2][4] Group 2: Market Potential and Commercialization - The global AI programming market is currently valued at approximately $3 billion, with projections to reach $23 billion by 2030 and a long-term potential nearing $700 billion [5] - AI Agents are penetrating various industries, with finance, programming, and government sectors leading the way as benchmark scenarios for technology empowerment [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The Chinese AI Agent market is expected to reach ¥147.3 billion by 2024, with a projected growth to over ¥3.3 trillion by 2028, indicating significant enterprise adoption potential [6] - Despite the optimistic outlook, challenges such as high entry barriers, safety concerns, and reliability issues remain, as the industry is still in its early stages [6]