【环球网财经综合报道】据美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）报道，高盛的一项调查发现，36%的受访投资者客户认为黄金将在2026年底达 到5000美元/盎司。 高盛在其Marquee平台上对900多名机构投资者客户进行的一项调查显示，占比最大（36%）的一组受访者预计黄金将保持涨势，并在2026年年底 前突破每盎司5000美元。另有33%的受访者预计，黄金价格将升至每盎司4500美元至5000美元之间。 高盛表示，超过70%的机构投资者认为2026年黄金价格会上涨。相比之下，在受访者中，只有略高于5%的人认为，未来12个月黄金价格将回落至 每盎司3500美元至4000美元之间。 今年以来，黄金价格已上涨58.6%，并于10月8日首次突破每盎司4000美元。近期受美联储降息预期提振，11月28日黄金价格升至两周高位，现货 黄金价格上涨0.45%，至每盎司4175.50美元。黄金期货价格上涨0.53%，至每盎司4187.40美元。 全球各国央行也纷纷涌入黄金市场，它们被黄金的高流动性、无违约风险以及作为储备资产大致中立的地位所吸引。 Blue Line Futures首席市场策略师Phil Streible表示， ...

高盛总结道，超过70%机构投资者预计黄金明年将继续上涨，仅略高于5%的人认为金价未来12个月会 回落至3500–4000美元之间。在高盛的调查中，38%的受访者认为金价上涨的主要动力来自各国中央银 行的持续购金；27%则认为是财政问题所致。 格隆汇11月30日｜高盛的一项调查结果显示，许多机构投资者认为黄金将在2026年结束前创下每盎司 5000美元的历史新高。 在高盛Marquee平台上，11月12日至14日之间对900多位机构投资者客户进行的调查结果显示，36%(占 比最大的群体)的受访者预计黄金将保持动能，并在明年年底前升破5000美元。另有33%的受访者预计 黄金将涨至4500至5000美元区间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that international gold prices may soar to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, representing a nearly 20% increase from current historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Structural Changes - The primary driver for this bullish outlook is the structural shift in central bank gold purchases, which have transitioned from minor adjustments to significant strategic moves since 2022 [5][7]. - Central banks are increasingly buying gold as a safe asset amid geopolitical tensions and concerns over the safety of dollar-denominated assets, with annual net purchases expected to reach 700-800 tons, nearly one-fifth of global mine production [7][9]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to further support gold prices, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [9][11]. - A potential 75 basis point cut in interest rates could lead to a significant inflow of funds back into gold ETFs, amplifying gold's financial attributes and driving prices higher [11][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global gold market is relatively small compared to other asset markets, meaning that even minor shifts in investment allocations can lead to substantial price movements [14][16]. - There is a growing consensus among investors regarding the safety of gold as a hedge against uncertainties in the U.S. fiscal situation and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, making gold a preferred alternative to dollar assets [16][18]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Achieving the $4,900 target will face challenges, including the sustainability of central bank gold purchases and potential profit-taking by investors as prices rise [18][20]. - The evolving role of gold as a decentralized reserve asset reflects a broader shift in the global monetary system, indicating that gold's importance in diversified investment portfolios is increasing [20][24].

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs has updated its 10-year forecast for global equities, projecting the S&P 500 to return 6.5% annually, which is below the global average of 7.7% annually [1][2] - Asian and emerging-market stocks are expected to outperform, with projected annual returns of 10.3% and 10.9% respectively in local currency, and 12.6% and 12.8% when measured in U.S. dollars [2] Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF tracks 2,300 companies in Asia, primarily in Japan, Australia, and Korea, with significant exposure to financial, industrial, and consumer discretionary sectors [4] - Over the past decade, the S&P 500 returned 288%, while the Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF returned only 105% [4][5] - The ETF has a low expense ratio of 0.07%, making it a cost-effective option for gaining exposure to Asian equities [5] Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF - The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF measures around 6,000 companies in emerging markets, focusing on China, Taiwan, and India, with heavy investments in technology, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors [8] - Similar to the Pacific ETF, the S&P 500 outperformed the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF over the last decade, achieving a total return of 288% compared to the ETF's 106% [8][9] - This ETF also has a modest expense ratio of 0.07%, providing an affordable way to invest in emerging markets [9] Investment Strategy Considerations - Despite the potential for Asian and emerging-market stocks to outperform, there is a strong recommendation to maintain a larger portion of investment in U.S. stocks, particularly the S&P 500 index fund, due to its historical performance [10][12] - Past forecasts by Goldman Sachs have been overly conservative, as seen in their 2015 prediction for the S&P 500, which underestimated actual returns [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - A Goldman Sachs survey indicates strong optimism among institutional investors for gold, with 36% predicting prices could exceed $5,000 per troy ounce by the end of 2026 [1] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Over 70% of institutional investors expect gold prices to rise in the upcoming year [1] - 27% of survey participants cite fiscal concerns as the main driver for gold purchases, while 38% point to central bank purchases [2] Group 2: Market Drivers - The global economic outlook, characterized by slowing growth and increasing inflationary pressures, continues to support gold prices [3] - Analysts project that geopolitical uncertainty and issues in China's housing market will contribute to rising gold prices [4] Group 3: Analyst Forecasts - Ed Yardeni forecasts gold could reach $5,000 by 2026 and $10,000 by 2030, while Jeffrey Gundlach also supports the $5,000 target, recommending a 15% portfolio allocation to gold [4] - Jamie Dimon from JPMorgan and analysts from Bank of America also predict gold prices will hit $5,000 by 2026 [4] Group 4: Current Market Performance - Gold prices have increased by 1.4% over the past year, reaching $4,217.8 per troy ounce, but saw a slight dip of 0.08% in the past month [5] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest physically backed gold ETF, traded at $387.88, reflecting a 1.24% increase [5]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper futures surged over 4%, surpassing $11,200, reaching a historical high due to supply shortages and expectations of a weaker dollar from potential Fed rate cuts [2][3] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rise in futures prices reflects expectations of copper shortages, driven by supply disruptions from mining accidents in Indonesia and Chile, alongside accelerating demand growth in the coming years [3] - The current copper supply chain is experiencing a historic tightness, with miners regaining pricing power after years of expanded smelting capacity [3] - Negotiations during a recent industry conference in Shanghai were intense, with miners pressuring smelters to accept record-low processing fees [3] Group 2: Pricing and Market Impact - Codelco's pricing for the U.S. market has reached a premium of over $500 per ton, a historical high, reflecting supply-demand fundamentals and additional costs [4] - Codelco's premiums for Chinese buyers have surged to $350 per ton, significantly higher than previously agreed prices, indicating market concerns over potential copper shortages [4] - Predictions suggest that U.S. copper imports may approach record levels, with U.S. inventories potentially accounting for 90% of global copper stocks, exacerbating shortages elsewhere [5] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - UBS has raised its copper price forecasts for 2026, anticipating prices to reach $11,500 per ton by March and $13,000 by December, driven by ongoing supply risks and declining inventories [6] - The copper market is expected to face significant deficits, with projected shortfalls of 230,000 tons in 2025 and nearly 407,000 tons in 2026, much higher than previous estimates [7] - Long-term forecasts from Goldman Sachs suggest copper prices could reach $15,000 per ton by 2035 due to resource constraints and increasing demand in key sectors [7]

Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index ended November nearly flat, but signs of recovery are emerging as volatility decreases and market breadth improves [1] - Market breadth, measured by the five-day average of advancing and declining stocks in the S&P 500, rebounded from a low of -150 to around +150 before Thanksgiving, indicating a significant shift in market participation [1] - The "volatility panic index" is currently around 5, slightly above its three-year average and significantly lower than its peak earlier in November [1] Group 2: Systematic Strategies and Positioning - Approximately $16 billion in S&P 500-related sell-offs occurred over the past month, exacerbating previous market declines [3] - Following the market's digestion of this risk-off phase, the expectation for the upcoming month has shifted to a slight net buying scenario of about $4.7 billion [3] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced significant gains after a period of volatility, with the Dow Jones up 3.18%, S&P 500 up 3.73%, and Nasdaq up 4.91% [3] Group 3: Wall Street Outlook for 2026 - Multiple top investment banks have released forecasts for the S&P 500 index for the end of 2026, with a consensus that the index will continue to rise due to AI investment trends, a shift to accommodative monetary policy, and broadening profit growth [4] - JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank set ambitious targets for the S&P 500, with JPMorgan forecasting a target of 7,500 points, potentially exceeding 8,000 points if the Fed continues to lower interest rates [4][5] - Deutsche Bank predicts a 14% increase in earnings per share for the S&P 500 next year, driven by AI's growth potential extending beyond major tech stocks to other sectors [5][6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Analysts from Morgan Stanley express optimism about sectors such as consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, industrials, and small-cap stocks, anticipating that the recent market sell-off is nearing its end [6] - UBS forecasts that the AI-driven market rally will persist until 2026, with a target of 7,500 points for the S&P 500, supported by strong corporate earnings growth [6] - Barclays raised its 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,400 points, citing strong performance from large tech stocks despite a sluggish macroeconomic growth environment [7]

Core Viewpoint - A significant shift in foreign investment attitudes towards Chinese technology stocks is observed, with major investment banks expressing bullish outlooks for the sector and foreign limited partners accelerating their return to China's primary market, focusing on technology investments [1][2][6]. Group 1: Positive Outlook from Foreign Institutions - UBS sets a target for the Hang Seng Tech Index at 7100 points for the end of 2026, indicating a nearly 27% upside from the closing price of 5599 points on November 28 [2]. - Morgan Stanley raises its target for the CSI 300 Index to 4840 points by December 2026, suggesting moderate growth potential amid stable valuations [3]. - JPMorgan upgrades its rating on Chinese stocks to "overweight," anticipating a higher likelihood of significant gains in the coming year due to AI proliferation and consumption stimulus [3]. Group 2: Increased Foreign Capital Inflow - Foreign capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $50.6 billion in the first ten months of 2025, significantly surpassing the total of $11.4 billion for 2024, marking over a threefold increase [4]. - The technology sector is highlighted as a key focus for foreign investment, with foreign holdings in the electronics sector increasing, reaching a market value of 391.5 billion yuan by September 30, 2025 [4]. Group 3: Strategic Investment Focus - Foreign institutions are primarily focusing on structural investments in sectors such as semiconductors, AI applications, and communication equipment [4][6]. - AI emerges as a central theme for foreign investment strategies, with firms like Lisi Capital and Source Code Capital establishing funds specifically targeting early-stage AI projects [7]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Logic - The shift in foreign investment sentiment towards Chinese technology stocks is viewed as a long-term strategic reassessment rather than a short-term tactical play, driven by significant advancements in technology innovation [6][8]. - Experts believe that as China's economy continues to recover and innovation accelerates, the trend of increasing foreign allocation to Chinese technology stocks is likely to persist, positioning the tech sector as a crucial market focus [8].

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 315.72 points or 0.6657% to 47742.84 during a shortened Black Friday trading session, driven by optimism for a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December and stronger-than-expected economic data [1] - Despite a temporary technical outage at CME Group that halted futures trading, the overall market sentiment remained positive [1] Sector Performance - Financial institutions and technology firms led the gains in the Dow, with notable performances from JPMorgan Chase (up 1.91% to $313.58), Salesforce (up 1.79% to $232.12), and Goldman Sachs (up 1.66% to $829.545) [2] - Other significant gainers included Amazon (up 1.55% to $232.77) and IBM (up 1.42% to $307.623) [2] Decliners - Nvidia was among the biggest losers, down 1.81% to $176.9551, followed by Johnson & Johnson (down 1.36% to $204.7473) and Amgen (down 0.62% to $342.53) [3] - Additional stocks in negative territory included Apple (down 0.39% to $276.53) and Merck (down 0.27% to $104.47) [3]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's top investment banks predict challenging years for the oil industry in 2026 and 2027 following a nearly 20% decline in oil prices in 2023 [1] Price Forecasts - JPMorgan's commodities team forecasts Brent crude oil to fall to $58 per barrel in 2026, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading $4 below this level; prices are expected to decline by another $1 per barrel in 2027 [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts Brent and WTI prices at $56 and $52 per barrel respectively for the next year, with expectations of recovery to $80 and $76 per barrel by 2028, assuming oversupply does not persist [3][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is characterized by oversupply, with global supply continuing to rise despite robust demand; this trend is expected to persist into the next year [5] - OPEC+ has increased output by more than 2 million barrels per day since April, while US shale production is projected to reach record highs in December [6] - Heavy stockpiling by China absorbed much of the excess supply in the first half of 2025, supporting prices [6] Market Conditions - Demand from the Middle East remains stable, and Indian refiners are increasing purchases of Urals crude from Russia; however, over 1 billion barrels are currently stored in tankers globally, marking the highest level since 2023 [7] - The International Energy Agency anticipates a supply glut in 2026, predicting an overhang of 4 million barrels per day [7]