炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 21世纪经济报道 实习生 张长荣 记者 崔文静 2025年，中国股市延续修复行情。高盛数据显示，A股和H 股年内分别实现约16%和29%的回报，自2022年底各自周期低点以来，累计反弹幅度已扩大至30%和 75%。 高盛在最新报告中预测，到2027年底中国股市仍有38%的上涨空间。这一判断主要基于三方面因素：一 是企业盈利逐步修复，预计2026年和2027年盈利增速分别为14%和12%；二是估值存在约10%的温和修 复潜力；三是市场回报的驱动正从此前的估值修复转向盈利兑现与温和的市盈率扩张。 资金层面，此前股票资产配置偏低的国内资金正在加速入场。据高盛数据，今年以来南向资金持续流 入，年化规模已达1800亿美元，远超2024年的1040亿美元，创下历史纪录。同时，在超额储蓄与温和杠 杆的支撑下，个人投资者也在增加股票配置。 外资情绪亦出现回暖迹象。全球对冲基金已逐步提高对中国市场的风险敞口，其净敞口从年初的6.8% 上升至11月底的7.8%。与此同时，新兴市场及亚洲区域共同基金对中国市场的低配幅度也在小幅收 窄。 高盛表示，中国市场具备 ...

北向资金持仓市值连续三个季度增长正在印证这份信心。业内普遍认为，2026年中国"慢牛"行情将持 续。在今年强劲表现之后，中国股市的估值仍低于全球同类市场，也远低于历史高点，估值具有上调潜 力。其中，中国科技股被视为全球股市中具有高确信度的板块。 看好中国经济，2027年底中国股市将上涨38% 日前，高盛发布的一则研报《2025年中国股市十大经验总结》引起市场关注。 报告指出，中国股市已实现连续两年上涨，牛市行情有望持续，只是步伐会放缓。"我们预测，到2027 年底中国股市将上涨38%，受到2026年和2027年分别为14%和12%的盈利增长以及约10%的估值修复潜 力的推动。" 2025年即将收官，2026年的中国机遇可期。 新京报贝壳财经记者梳理多家外资机构研报时发现，"把握中国机遇""将继续增持中国资产""超额回 报"等频繁出现。这些机构整体对中国2026年的市场前景保持乐观，并预测到2027年底中国股市有望上 涨38%。 在众多投资方向中，中国科技股成为外资机构一致看好的核心赛道。 瑞银明确呼吁投资者"把握中国机遇"，并指出，人工智能（AI）创新和相关支出，预计将推动中国科技 行业2026年盈利大幅增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team indicates that global equity markets are in a typical "optimism phase," with the bull market expected to broaden by 2026, despite lower expected returns compared to 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The weighted price return for global equity markets is projected to be 13% in 2026, with a total return of 15% including dividends, building on a strong performance in 2025 [1]. - The market has shown significant recovery since April, with major U.S. indices rebounding nearly 45% from their lows [1][6]. - The current bull market is shifting from valuation-driven to earnings-driven, with geographic diversification becoming evident as most major stock markets are expected to outperform U.S. equities in 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risks - The market is currently characterized by record concentration at national, industry, and individual stock levels, making diversification particularly urgent for 2026 [4][8]. - Historical patterns suggest that the final year of a market cycle often sees significant price surges, raising the risk of a bubble, especially if speculative behavior is driven by AI narratives [5]. - The report highlights that the recovery path has been tumultuous, with significant downturns earlier in the year due to tariff concerns and the "DeepSeek" effect on the tech sector [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the necessity of diversification across regions, styles, and sectors to optimize risk-adjusted returns [8][11]. - Suggested strategies include focusing on emerging markets, combining growth and value stocks, and leveraging capital expenditures in traditional sectors benefiting from AI developments [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. GDP data for Q3 shows a surprising growth of 4.3%, significantly exceeding expectations, with consumer spending increasing by 3.5%, leading to a consensus on Wall Street regarding an "overheating economy" [2] Economic Growth and Inflation - Analysts are shifting focus from recession risks to expectations of strong growth and high inflation in the U.S. for the coming year [2] - Glenmede's Michael Reynolds highlights factors such as tariff policies, fiscal stimulus, labor market changes, AI-related productivity, and potential deregulation as contributors to above-trend growth prospects through 2026 [2] - Bank of America anticipates strong growth next year, with inflation remaining above target, supported by factors like Fed rate cuts and AI investments [3] Investment Strategies - Bank of America identifies commodities, particularly oil and energy, as preferred investments for the "overheating economy" scenario, suggesting that commodities will perform well in 2026 [5] - Goldman Sachs notes that cyclical assets typically perform well during economic expansions and could benefit from the macro environment next year [4] Sector-Specific Insights - Goldman Sachs points to housing and consumer-facing markets, including non-essential consumer goods and retail stocks, as areas of optimism, indicating that cyclical assets are rebounding [6] - Morgan Stanley views non-essential consumer goods as fitting the "overheating" investment narrative, with the sector's revenue growth exceeding expectations [6] - Small-cap stocks are seen as attractive, with expectations of accelerated earnings and pricing power as the market moves toward 2026 [7]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have contrasting views on the U.S. economic outlook for 2026, with Goldman being more optimistic, predicting a growth rate of 2.6%, while Citigroup forecasts a lower rate of 2.1% [1][2] - Goldman Sachs expects strong GDP growth in the first half of next year, attributing this to the diminishing effects of tariffs and an additional $100 billion in tax refunds from fiscal plans, alongside a loose monetary environment from the Federal Reserve [1] - Citigroup is skeptical about the scale of additional tax refunds, estimating it to be between $30 billion and $50 billion, and believes that the supportive effects of a loose monetary environment are limited [2] Group 2 - Both banks anticipate further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, with Goldman predicting a 50 basis point cut and Citigroup expecting a 75 basis point cut, highlighting a general dovish outlook [3] - Citigroup emphasizes that the biggest risk to their economic outlook is a rise in unemployment rates, noting that historically, prolonged increases in unemployment have led to significant economic downturns [3] - Goldman Sachs identifies the labor market's weaknesses as a major vulnerability, warning that persistent job market issues could trigger serious recession concerns [3]

Summary of the 2026 Consumer Outlook Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **U.S. consumer spending** outlook for 2026, highlighting the expected growth trends and underlying economic factors. Key Points and Arguments Consumer Spending Growth - Consumer spending grew at a strong **3.5%** pace in Q3 2025 but is projected to moderate to **2.2%** in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis, down from **3.4%** in 2024 [2][5][30] - The slowdown is attributed to slower real income growth, with job gains slowing and tariff-related price increases keeping inflation elevated [2][5] - The new tax bill is expected to provide a **+0.2 percentage point (pp)** boost to household consumption growth in 2026, particularly in the first half of the year [10][18][21] Job Growth and Labor Income - Job growth is anticipated to rebound from **32,000** per month to **70,000** in 2026, driven by reduced tariff impacts and fiscal stimulus [11][14] - Real labor income growth is expected to rise to **2.3%** in 2026, up from **1.9%** in 2025, providing a solid foundation for consumption growth [11][22] Inflation and Wage Growth - Inflation is projected to decline more than wage growth, leading to slightly higher real wage growth of just over **1%** [15][16] - The report estimates that tariff effects have boosted inflation by **0.5pp** so far, with an additional **0.3pp** expected over the next six months [15] K-Shaped Recovery - The consumer economy is expected to exhibit a **K-shaped** recovery, with lower-income households facing the most significant challenges due to government spending cuts and reduced immigration impacting job growth [33][35] - Higher-income households are likely to experience stronger spending growth, benefiting from wealth effects driven by rising equity prices [38] Risks to Consumer Spending - Two major risks to the spending outlook include: 1. A potential weak job market that could restrain income and spending growth, particularly affecting lower-income workers [47][48] 2. A significant decline in equity or asset prices, which could turn the wealth effect into a drag on spending, with estimates suggesting a **20%** decline in equity prices could subtract **0.7pp** from consumption growth [51][52] Overall Consumption Forecast - The forecast for consumption growth in 2026 is solid at **2.2%**, exceeding the consensus forecast of **1.9%**, with stronger growth expected in the first half of the year due to fiscal and wealth effects [30][32] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the new fiscal legislation and its impact on disposable income and consumption growth [18][21] - It highlights the stabilization of delinquency rates in consumer loans, suggesting that rising delinquency rates may not pose a significant risk to spending [41][42] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the U.S. consumer spending outlook for 2026, focusing on growth expectations, underlying economic factors, and potential risks.

报道还提到，高盛今年准确预测了中国股市的上涨，预计主要股票指数至少会增长13%，因为经济和资本市场的政策 支持下，盈利增长和估值扩张；在美国投行的最新报告中，也重申了这一观点，并预计到2027年底，中国股市将增长 38%，其中10%的再评级潜力和2026年14%和次年12%的利润增长率将推动这一增长。 【环球网财经综合报道】Wind数据显示，今年以来A股总成交额已超过400万亿元，为历史首次，多达19只个股今年成 交额超过万亿元。年内平均换手率接近1.74%，有望创出2016年以来新高。 与此同时，股票型基金新发规模首次突破4000亿份。Wind数据显示，今年以来新成立股票型基金808只，发行份额 4086.66亿份，数量和规模超越2021年的512只和3762.22亿份，同样创下历史新高。 《南华早报》近日发文称，高盛的Kinger Lau等分析师表示："我们预计中国股市上涨将继续，但增速会放缓。这类似 于从希望过渡到增长的股市周期，此时，盈利实现和适度的估值扩张通常会超过强劲但波动的再评级收益，推动回 报。" 多家国内公募基金经理则表示，2026年市场上涨动力或将从单一的估值驱动逐渐转向"盈利+估值"双重 ...

Market Overview - The Santa Claus Rally is a topic of interest as traders enter the final trading week of the year, with historical data suggesting favorable odds for market gains during this period [1] - The S&P 500 has historically averaged a gain of 0.95% during the last trading week of the year, with a 71% win rate over 95 years [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has shown an average gain of 1.06% in the same period, with a 77% win rate based on 128 years of data [3] - The Nasdaq 100 has underperformed, averaging only a 0.4% gain with a 55% win rate over 40 years [3] Notable Stocks - Newmont Corp. (NYSE:NEM) has the highest average gain of 2.24% during the Santa Claus Rally, with a 75% win rate, although it experienced a 2.46% decline last year [9] - Assurant Inc. (NYSE:AIZ) has an average gain of 1.52% and a 70% win rate, with its best year being 2008 at 14.11% [8] - The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE:GS) has averaged a 1.36% gain with an 80% win rate, peaking at 12.2% in 2008 [7] - J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) has delivered an average gain of 1.34% and an 85% win rate, with its strongest performance in 2008 at 8.31% [6] - Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE:RL) has averaged a 1.29% gain with a 65% win rate, achieving its best performance in 2018 at 8.21% [5]

Core Insights - The global merger and acquisition (M&A) cycle is experiencing a significant upswing, with 2025 marking a structural inflection point as companies and financial sponsors seek to offset slowing organic growth and secure competitive advantages, particularly in technology and AI [1][2] M&A Activity Overview - Global M&A activity surged 41% year over year to $4.81 trillion in 2025, the second-highest total on record, with 70 megadeals exceeding $10 billion [2] - Regulatory shifts under the Trump administration have created a more favorable environment for consolidation, easing approval processes [3] Outlook for 2026 - Large-scale M&As in 2026 are expected to focus on de-conglomeration and "buy-and-build" strategies, benefiting mid-market activity [5] - A 3% increase in deal volume is forecasted for 2026, with private equity-backed deals projected to rise due to undeployed capital and improved exit opportunities [7][6] Investment Banking Performance - Morgan Stanley's investment banking revenues rose 15% to $5.2 billion in the first nine months of 2025, supported by a healthy M&A pipeline [10][12] - Goldman Sachs advised on over $1 trillion in announced M&A volumes in 2025, maintaining a leadership position in global M&As [18] - Raymond James' investment banking fees increased by 26% in fiscal 2025, driven by a robust pipeline and active M&A market [24] Earnings Estimates - Morgan Stanley's earnings per share estimates for 2025 and 2026 are $9.88 and $10.41, reflecting year-over-year increases of 24.3% and 5.4% respectively [14] - Goldman Sachs' earnings per share estimates for 2025 and 2026 are $48.96 and $55.15, indicating growth of 20.8% and 12.6% respectively [20] - Raymond James' earnings per share estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 are $11.95 and $13.66, suggesting growth of 12.1% and 14.2% respectively [25]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has seen a significant stock performance increase of 56% for the year, outperforming many tech stocks and the "Magnificent Seven" [1] - The company is experiencing growth that may surpass most technology stocks, with lower associated risks [1] - Financial and consumer spending companies, including Goldman Sachs, are consistently delivering better-than-expected results amid low expectations [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs is involved in various financial services, including investment banking and asset management [2] - Concerns were raised regarding Goldman Sachs' acquisition of a majority stake in Excel Sports Management, with skepticism about its strategic fit [2] - Despite the potential of Goldman Sachs as an investment, some analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [2]