大摩：尽管4月通胀高企，英国央行料仍坚持宽松政策 金十数据5月21日讯，摩根士丹利的分析师Bruna Skarica在一份报告中表示，尽管英国4月份的通胀率高 于预期，但英国央行可能会坚持其宽松政策的路线。她说，3.5%的年度CPI涨幅并不是一个特别大的打 击喜，因为这是由行政和旅游一次性支出推动的。不过，即便5月通胀可能更为温和，且6月就业市场报 告将显示薪资增长出现明显下滑，英国央行6月降息似乎不太可能。Skarica表示："在8月份之前，很多 事情都可能发生。"包括通胀预期下降。她说："我们仍然预计利率会下调，并在年底前连续下调至 3.25%。" ...

智通财经APP获悉，在评级机构穆迪于上周下调美国信用评级后，投资者对美国资产的信心进一步减弱，"卖出美国"交易再次成为焦点。然而，摩根士丹利 预计，美联储未来将进行一系列降息，这将支撑债券市场并提振企业盈利，该行因此上调了对美国股票和国债的投资建议。而对于美元，摩根士丹利则认 为，美元将继续走弱。 在5月20日发布的一份报告中，摩根士丹利全球跨资产策略研究主管Serena Tang等策略师表示，该行已将美国股票和主权债券的评级从"中性"上调至"增 持"。策略师在报告中表示，预计标普500指数将在2026年第二季度升至6,500点。策略师预计，美国国债收益率将在今年最后一个季度之前保持震荡走势， 届时市场将开始计入2026年的更多降息预期，这有望将10年期美债收益率在明年第二季度压低至3.45%。与此同时，策略师还预计，美元将继续走弱，因为 美国相对于其他经济体的增长溢价正在消退，与其他国家的利差也在缩小。 摩根士丹利策略师表示："我们认为，美股短期内不会重回4月份的低点，尤其是考虑到美股年初至今的几次大幅回调主要是对关税的反应。""我们的股票策 略团队预计，美国未来的政策议程将更为宽松，他们预测美联储将在20 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley upgraded both U.S. stocks and sovereign bonds from "neutral" to "overweight," predicting a significant shift in market dynamics due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next two years [1] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 6,500 points by 2026, reflecting a bullish outlook on the U.S. equity market [1][2] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve will implement a total of seven interest rate cuts by 2026, which could lead to a 25% increase in the S&P 500 index and lower the 10-year Treasury yield to 3.45% [2] Group 2 - The report indicates that the favorable conditions for the U.S. dollar may be coming to an end, as the growth advantage of the U.S. economy is being matched globally, leading to a potential decline in the dollar index over the next 12 months [3] - Following a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's, there is a trend of investors moving towards emerging markets and Asian assets, aligning with the forecast of a weakening dollar [3] Group 3 - Despite uncertainties surrounding trade negotiations and budget discussions under the Trump administration, Morgan Stanley sees a "certainty" emerging as the most intense phase of tariff impacts has passed, suggesting that the panic selling in the market may be a thing of the past [4] - The S&P 500 has recovered to 5,940 points, but concerns remain regarding high 10-year Treasury yields at 4.51% and worries about tax cuts and deficit expansion [4] Group 4 - The era of "unhedged bets" on the dollar may be ending, as global investors are likely to reassess their foreign exchange hedging strategies due to declining attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields, which could exacerbate selling pressure on the dollar [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a baseline forecast of global growth slowing from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, with specific growth rates for major economies outlined [7][8][70]. Core Insights - The broad imposition of tariffs by the US is identified as a structural shock to global trade, significantly impacting growth across various economies [5][6]. - The report highlights that the trade shock affects economies simultaneously, pushing them below potential growth levels, with the US experiencing a notable decline in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in both 2025 and 2026 [7][74]. - China is projected to see a slowdown in real growth by approximately 0.5 percentage points in 2025 compared to 2024, with persistent deflation expected [7][17]. - India is noted as the fastest-growing economy in the coverage, with real GDP growth forecasted at 5.9% in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026 [7][68]. Summary by Sections Growth – A Widespread Deceleration - Global growth is forecasted to decelerate significantly, with the US, Euro area, and China all experiencing reduced growth rates due to trade shocks and other economic factors [7][70]. - The report anticipates that the US will face a step down in real GDP growth, while the Euro area will not exceed 1% growth throughout the forecast period [7][8]. Inflation Divergence - The report discusses a divergence in inflation trends, with the US experiencing a temporary boost in inflation due to tariffs, while other regions like the Euro area and Japan see inflation moderating [16][17]. - Core PCE inflation in the US is expected to peak at 4.5% before declining, remaining above the Federal Reserve's target throughout 2026 [16][17]. Monetary Policy – The Fed in a Bind - Central banks are expected to react to slower growth and softer inflation, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain its policy stance until inflation peaks [18][19]. - The report forecasts that the Fed will restart its easing cycle in March 2026, while the ECB is expected to continue its easing cycle, bringing the policy rate below neutral [18][19]. Global Trade – A New Paradigm - The report emphasizes that the trade shock is a significant factor affecting global economic performance, with uncertainty in trade policy leading to reduced capital expenditure decisions globally [6][74]. - The impact of tariffs is expected to create a level shift in prices, affecting consumption patterns and overall economic growth [61][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on US equities and core fixed income, while being Neutral on global stocks and Underweight (UW) on commodities [6][40]. Core Insights - The global economy is expanding but at a slower pace, with the US expected to achieve approximately 1% growth year-over-year. Despite policy uncertainties, US assets are projected to outperform those in the rest of the world (RoW) [40][42]. - A weaker US dollar is anticipated due to converging US rates and growth with peers, alongside increased currency hedging flows benefiting safe-haven currencies like EUR, JPY, and CHF [9][42][91]. - The report emphasizes a preference for US equities over RoW, with a constructive outlook on core fixed income [40][42][91]. Cross-Asset Strategy - The report suggests a strong regional preference for US assets across various classes, recommending an Overweight in US equities and core fixed income while being Neutral on global equities [6][40]. - US Treasury yields are expected to remain range-bound until late 2025, with a forecasted 10-year yield of 3.45% by 2Q26 [8][40]. Global Equities - US stocks are projected to benefit from earnings revisions and a weaker dollar, with the S&P 500 target set at 6,500 by 2Q26 [7][38]. - The report anticipates that trade tensions will de-escalate, reducing recession risks and supporting equity valuations [50][91]. G10 Rates - The report forecasts a steeper yield curve in the US, UK, and euro area, while Japan's curve is expected to flatten. The anticipated 10-year UST yield is 3.45% by 2Q26 [8][40]. FX Outlook - The USD is expected to weaken by approximately 10% by the end of 2026, with EUR/USD projected at 1.25 and USD/JPY at 130 by 2Q26 [9][52][91]. EM Fixed Income - Emerging Market (EM) fixed income is expected to yield benign and positive returns, driven by mild inflation and lower UST yields. Specific countries like Brazil, Turkey, and India are highlighted for local rates, while Colombia and Morocco are noted for credit [10][40]. Corporate Credit - High-quality credit is viewed as attractive, particularly in the US, with spreads for US Investment Grade (IG) expected at 90 basis points and High Yield (HY) at 335 basis points by 2Q26 [11][40]. Commodities - The report indicates risks in the commodities market, particularly for Brent prices, while gold is expected to remain elevated. Brent is forecasted at $55 per barrel and gold at $3,250 per ounce by 2Q26 [13][40].

这是穆迪下调美国主权信用评级引发连锁反应的最新例证。穆迪上周五取消了美国的最高信用评级，将 其下调一级至Aa1，并指责美国历届政府和国会导致预算赤字不断膨胀，且毫无缓解迹象。 此次降级将波及那些实际上通过提供存款、进行衍生品交易或从银行子公司购买无担保债券向银行放贷 的公司、投资者和消费者。穆迪表示，美国政府至少对这些"大到不能倒"实体的债务提供了一定程度的 支持。 穆迪评级下调了包括美国银行(BAC.US)、摩根大通(JPM.US)在内的一些大型银行的存款评级，理由是 上周五美国信用评级被下调，且美国政府对这些银行的支持能力减弱。 美国银行、摩根大通和富国银行(WFC.US)旗下子公司的长期存款评级被下调一级至Aa2，为穆迪的第 三高评级。穆迪还下调了美国银行和纽约梅隆银行(BK.US)部分子公司的高级无抵押债务评级，从Aa1 下调至Aa2。 此外，穆迪还将美国银行、纽约梅隆银行、摩根大通、道富银行(STT.US)和富国银行部分子公司的长期 交易对手风险评级下调一级，至Aa2。 穆迪分析师表示："美国政府评级的下调表明，其支持这些高评级债务的能力有所下降。" 因此，穆迪移除了银行原评级中因政府支持而设置的" ...

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the US AAA credit rating, leading to a decline in US stock index futures and the dollar, while pushing up US Treasury yields [1][2] - The 30-year Treasury yield reached a critical level of 5%, and the dollar index fell below 101, dropping over 0.5% [1] - Despite concerns, some analysts suggest that the recent sell-off in US Treasuries and the dollar is a rare market reaction to perceived fiscal recklessness [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Williams noted that there is no significant evidence of large-scale capital outflows from US assets, despite market uncertainties [3] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and HSBC view the downgrade as a potential buying opportunity, with expectations of a rebound in the S&P 500 index [4][5] - The correlation between stock returns and bond yields has decreased significantly, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - Major tech stocks opened lower, with Tesla dropping nearly 4%, Nvidia and TSMC falling over 2%, although losses narrowed by the time of reporting [2] - U.S. bank stocks also opened lower, including Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, following a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's [2] - The Nasdaq China Index initially fell nearly 1.5%, with several popular Chinese stocks experiencing significant declines, such as NIO and XPeng [3] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Tesla's stock was down 2.40% at $341.565, with concerns over the delayed launch of its Robotaxi service, which was expected to start in Austin, Texas [3][5] - Nvidia's stock fell over 2%, as CEO Jensen Huang indicated a reevaluation of the company's strategy in China due to U.S. government restrictions on chip exports [7] - NIO's stock dropped nearly 3%, while XPeng fell over 4%, reflecting broader market concerns affecting Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers [4][3] Group 3: Economic Context - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing increasing government debt and rising interest payment ratios, which has raised concerns among global investors [9] - The U.S. federal government debt has reached $36.2 trillion, approximately 124% of GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to 134% by 2035 [9] - Federal Reserve officials noted that the downgrade could impact the economy and financial markets, with expectations of only one interest rate cut this year [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Following Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson suggests that investors should buy U.S. stocks on dips, as the U.S.-China trade truce has reduced the likelihood of an economic recession [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The downgrade by Moody's has led to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, surpassing 4.5%, which may increase the likelihood of a stock market pullback [1] - After the credit rating downgrade, S&P 500 futures fell by 1.2% on Monday [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Moody's cited the persistent expansion of the U.S. budget deficit without signs of narrowing as the reason for the downgrade [1] - The downgrade has reignited concerns about the attractiveness of U.S. assets amid ongoing global trade uncertainties [1]

专题：深交所2025全球投资者大会：新质生产力 投资中国新机遇——开放创新的深圳市场 5月19日，深交所2025全球投资者大会在深圳举行，大会以"新质生产力：投资中国新机遇——开放创新 的深圳市场"为主题，会议吸引了富达、安本、瑞士百达、施罗德、摩根士丹利、AIA、瑞银、未来资 产、美银等多家外资机构参加。参会机构表示，中国正处国际格局转变与产业涅槃机遇期，中国AI创 新引领全球，中国在ESG领域的进步令国际投资者刮目相看，建议投资者借ETF在美元走弱中捕捉亚洲 与中国机遇。 中国正处国际格局转变与产业涅槃机遇期 摩根士丹利首席中国经济学家邢自强表示，中国正处国际格局转变与产业涅槃机遇期，AI全链闭环、 智能驾驶领跑，政策 "三部曲" 破局低物价循环。深交所以资本力量赋能新质生产力，未来有望依托内 需升级与统一大市场，构建 "中国市场 2030" 双循环新图景。 富达国际亚洲（除日本）股票投资总监Gary Monaghan指出，新质生产力产业发展需要巨额电量，全球 能源分布不均，能源的输送和存储存在瓶颈，像电网、输电、变电站等，不像AI这样举世瞩目，但是 它们可能也是非常好的投资。全世界范围内有很多这样的公司 ...