Core Viewpoint - Microsoft (MSFT) is increasingly perceived as a value investment, with the Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 2X Shares ETF (MSFU) experiencing a rapid 50% drawdown since MSFT's peak [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Microsoft is currently viewed as a value play in the market [1] - The Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 2X Shares ETF (MSFU) has seen a significant decline, indicating market volatility surrounding Microsoft [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - Daniel Martins, the founder of DM Martins Research, has extensive experience in investment management and has contributed to over 2,000 articles on platforms like Seeking Alpha [1] - Martins has a background in equity research and macro strategy, having worked with notable firms such as FBR Capital Markets and Bridgewater Associates [1]

每日晨报│2026 年 2 月 11 日 -主要市场指数表现 | | 收市价 | 上个交易日升 | YTD 升跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 27,027 | +1.76% | +5.45% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,417 | +1.34% | -1.78% | | 国企指数 | 9,168 | +1.52% | +2.86% | | 沪深 300 | 4,719 | +1.63% | +1.92% | | 上证综合指数 | 4,123 | +1.41% | +3.89% | | 深证成份指数 | 14,208 | +2.17% | +5.05% | | 中小板指 | 8,594 | +1.74% | +4.01% | | 道琼斯指数 | 50,135 | +0.04% | +4.31% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,964 | +0.47% | +1.74% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23,238 | +0.90% | -0.01% | | 伦敦富时指数 | 10,386 | +0.16% | +4.58% | | CAC40 指数 | 8,323 ...

来源：格隆汇APP Hawtin还指出，人工智能竞赛中一个关键因素可能决定胜负：专有数据。"数据的所有权将绝对决定谁 能最终胜出。"并以谷歌母公司Alphabet去年的强劲表现为例。Hawtin表示，尽管Alphabet去年起初表现 不佳，但最终仍成为"科技七巨头"中表现最好的公司，全年涨幅达65%，而"这主要归功于其庞大的专 有数据集"。 格隆汇2月11日｜"科技七巨头"——苹果、微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta、特斯拉和英伟达——不断 增长的资本支出，预示着投资者面临的风险增加，并可能成为这些主导公司最终跑输大盘的催化剂。这 是英国基金管理公司Liontrust全球股票主管Hawtin的最新观点。他指出，最近财报中宣布的激进支出计 划是那些寻求可靠回报的股东们最关心的问题。 ...

Summary of Key Points Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the technology sector, specifically focusing on companies related to OpenAI and its products, including ChatGPT and Codex [1]. Core Insights and Arguments - A positive report from CNBC highlighted that OpenAI's CEO, Altman, indicated that ChatGPT has returned to a monthly growth rate of 10% [1]. - The report also noted that Codex experienced a week-over-week growth of 60% [1]. - DADavidson upgraded the rating for "OpenAI and its Orbit" in anticipation of model releases and fundraising efforts, which positively impacted stock prices [1]. - Following the upgrade, Softbank's stock rose by 6%, Oracle (ORCL) increased by 9%, AMD saw a rise of 3.6%, and Microsoft (MSFT) gained 3% [1]. - Despite fluctuations in the market prior to the two major catalysts (fundraising and model release), overall sentiment towards OpenAI remains positive [1]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The market's reaction to the news indicates a growing confidence in OpenAI's future prospects and the potential for continued growth in the AI sector [1].

Group 1 - Major tech stocks in the US saw an upward trend on February 10, with Netflix rising over 3% [1] - Disney's stock increased by nearly 3% [1] - Oracle and Salesforce both experienced gains of over 2% [1] - Microsoft and TSMC saw their stocks rise by nearly 2% [1] - Tesla's stock increased by over 1% [1]

Core Insights - The International Solid-State Circuits Conference (ISSCC) will take place from February 15 to 19, 2026, in San Francisco, showcasing significant advancements in semiconductor technology [2] Group 1: AI Chips - AMD's latest AI GPU, Instinct MI350, features a CDNA4 architecture with a theoretical peak performance increase of 1.9 times compared to its predecessor, and improvements in HBM input/output bandwidth and memory capacity by 1.5 times [2] - Rebellions has developed a large-scale AI inference subsystem using UCIe protocol, achieving a performance of 56.8 TPS on the Llama 3.3 model with 700 billion parameters [3] - IBM's AI accelerator, Spyre, is optimized for inference, boasting a throughput 32% higher than the latest GPUs and energy efficiency 2 to 3 times better [3] - MediaTek's MADiC, a generative diffusion accelerator, achieves performance of 7.4 TOPS/mm² and 17.4 TOPS/W, designed for generative image editing on edge devices [4] - NVIDIA's ALPhA-Vision real-time image processor has a face detection latency of 787 microseconds and an accuracy rate of 99.3% [5] Group 2: Memory Technologies - SanDisk and Kioxia have developed a 3D NAND flash memory with a density of 37.6 Gbit/mm², capable of reaching a storage capacity of 2 Tbit and a write speed of 85 MB/s [6] - Samsung is set to release a DRAM module with a capacity of 36GB and a data transfer rate of up to 3.3 TB/s, utilizing 12 chips stacked together [7] - SK Hynix has developed a 16Gbit LPDDR6 SDRAM with a data transfer rate of 14.4 Gbps per I/O pin [7] - Samsung will also introduce a 16Gbit LPDDR6 SDRAM with a data transfer rate of 12.8 Gbps [8] - SK Hynix's 24Gbit GDDR7 DRAM targets mid-range AI inference applications with a data transfer rate of 48 Gbps [8] Group 3: Image Sensors - STMicroelectronics will showcase a lidar receiver with a field of view of 54°×42° and a power consumption of 153 mW [9] - Sony Semiconductor Solutions has developed a Ge-on-Si SPAD sensor array designed for low-power AR/VR applications, with a power consumption of 26 mW at 30 fps [10] - SmartSens Technology's CMOS image sensor features 200 million pixels and supports 8K video recording at 60 fps [11] Group 4: AI Chip Presentations - NVIDIA will present its GB10 processor for desktop AI supercomputers, featuring 20 Armv9.2 cores and a performance of 31 TFLOPS in FP32 mode [12] - STMicroelectronics will discuss the STM32N6 microcontroller series, integrating an Arm Cortex-M55 CPU and a Neural-ART NPU with performance of 600 GOPS and 3 TOPS/W [13] - Microsoft will explain its AI accelerator architecture, MAIA, focusing on packaging technology and power management [13]

这些数字不仅高于市场预期，而且是成倍级别的偏离。7400亿美元意味着什么？ 7400亿美元较2025年同比增长约70%； 它是2025年底市场一致预期（约35%的资本支出增长）的两倍； 7400亿美元接近整个超大规模云厂商体系全年经营现金流总量。 更值得警惕的是：高盛分析师Shreeti Kapa指出，如果达到这一水平，这种支出的强度将接近上世纪90年代互联网泡沫巅峰时期占GDP 1.4%的水平。虽然仍低于工业革命时期的强度，但在现代科技史上已属罕见。 | Company | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2-Year | 100% | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Actual | Actual | Guidance | Growth | | | | Consensus capex growth | | | Amazon/AWS | $83.0B | $131.8B | ~$200B | +141% | 90% | | | estimates for Al hyperscaler ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank conducted a 3,114 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 2,059 billion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - The central bank is expected to accelerate interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions due to ongoing economic challenges, with January's manufacturing PMI falling into contraction territory [3] Logistics and Economic Activity - The total social logistics in China reached 368.2 trillion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, with logistics costs as a percentage of GDP decreasing to 13.9% [4] - Industrial logistics contributed significantly to growth, with high-tech manufacturing logistics demand increasing over 9%, particularly in industrial robots and new energy vehicles [4][5] Cross-Border E-Commerce Policies - The Ministry of Finance extended tax incentives for cross-border e-commerce export return goods until the end of 2027, with the 2025 export-import scale reaching 2.75 trillion yuan, a 69.7% increase since 2020 [6] - The policy aims to alleviate financial burdens on businesses facing challenges due to international market conditions [6] Ride-Hailing Industry Regulation - The Ministry of Transport held discussions with Gaode Dache regarding management issues and pricing practices, emphasizing the need for improved operational safety and compliance [8][9] - The regulatory focus aims to foster a transparent and fair competitive environment in the ride-hailing market [9] Corporate Financing and Investment Trends - Alphabet plans to issue a rare 100-year bond, marking a significant move in corporate financing amidst substantial capital expenditures aimed at AI development [10][11] - Microsoft faced a downgrade in ratings due to concerns over capital expenditures and the performance of its AI products, despite a majority of analysts still recommending the stock [12][13] Gold Market Dynamics - Chow Tai Fook plans to raise gold product prices by 15%-30% due to rising international and domestic market factors, marking its fourth price adjustment in a year [14][15] - The shift in consumer demand from gold jewelry to investment products reflects changing market dynamics, with leading brands innovating to add value beyond weight [15]

2026年，科技公司的财报发布日总是伴随着投资者两种反应：先为AI相关业务的持续增长松一口气， 再为资本支出（CAPEX）的巨大规模倒吸一口凉气。 近日，云巨头微软、谷歌、亚马逊相继发出最新季度财报。AI带来的需求是真实且汹涌的，最直接的 落点在云业务上，微软Azure的增长加速至39%、谷歌云狂奔48%、AWS创下十三个季度以来最快的 24%增速。 但资本市场更关注的是它们为未来投下的巨额赌注。微软单季资本支出已达创纪录的375亿美元，同比 增长66%；谷歌公布2026年资本支出计划为1750亿至1850亿美元，几乎是2025年的两倍；亚马逊宣布将 在2026年投入高达2000亿美元，在几个科技巨头里排在首位。 当资本开支被同步大幅抬高，利润率与自由现金流的短期成色将更频繁地影响股价弹性。财报发布后， 微软股价盘后一度下跌超8%，谷歌跌幅超7%，亚马逊下跌超过11%。 过去一年，这三家公司每家在基础设施上的投入都超过了大多数国家的国防预算，未来一年还将继续加 码。在经历了一年多的AI叙事狂热后，投资者们已经没有那么多的耐心，开始计算这些投资何时能转 化为可见的利润。 狂飙的云业务 本季财报最毋庸置疑的亮点， ...

The sell-off was already in full swing in mid-January, but it has intensified in recent weeks. So, assuming that just because a stock was down a lot to kick off the year would have been a big mistake. Or assuming that just because Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is highly diversified doesn't mean it can't sell off in a major way.It's a common mistake to look at a beaten-down stock, especially one that is down big in a short period, and assume that it can't keep falling. Just look at a chart of the 10 largest holdi ...