Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable performance of Pop Mart, particularly driven by the LABUBU series, which has seen explosive growth in revenue and market interest, reminiscent of past trends in collectible markets like "sneaker flipping" and "bearbrick speculation" [3][4][12]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [3][4]. - The adjusted net profit surged by 362.8% to 4.71 billion RMB during the same period [3]. - The LABUBU series alone generated 4.81 billion RMB in revenue, a staggering growth of 668%, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue [4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Sales - The launch of the mini LABUBU on August 28 sold out within 60 seconds, with a peak resale price reaching 1,388 RMB, a 1,657% markup from the original price of 79 RMB [3][5]. - Over 580,000 consumers added the mini LABUBU to their shopping carts before the sale, indicating high demand [5]. - The secondary market saw prices for complete sets of LABUBU toys reaching an average of 1,920.77 RMB, with some transactions exceeding 2,580 RMB [6]. Group 3: Global Expansion - Pop Mart operates 571 retail stores and 2,597 robot stores across 18 countries and regions as of mid-2025 [9]. - Revenue from the Asia-Pacific region reached 2.85 billion RMB, up 258%, while the Americas saw revenue of 2.27 billion RMB, increasing by 1,142% [9]. - The company’s global strategy includes opening flagship stores in major cities, such as London and Paris, to enhance brand visibility [9]. Group 4: IP Development and Future Outlook - Pop Mart emphasizes a balanced development of its IP matrix, with five IPs generating over 1 billion RMB in sales each during the first half of 2025 [10]. - The LABUBU brand is seen as a "gold mine" with potential for further exploration and innovation in product applications [11]. - The company is building a "LABUBU universe" to expand its product offerings and enhance consumer engagement [11]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The success of LABUBU reflects a shift in consumer behavior, particularly among Generation Z, who prioritize emotional connection and self-rewarding purchases [12]. - The article notes a trend towards more rational consumption, with consumers becoming less impulsive and more focused on the actual value of collectible items [12].

Investment Trends in the Toy Industry - The card game industry has seen significant investment, with Shanhun completing a financing round of several hundred million yuan led by Hillhouse Capital [1] - The toy industry is experiencing a surge in mergers and acquisitions, primarily driven by listed companies acquiring startups [2][6] - Investment institutions are increasingly focusing on niche markets such as card games and blind boxes, with companies like 52TOYS and TOPTOY receiving new funding this year [2][3] Market Dynamics and Company Performance - Shanhun's business model is similar to that of Kayo, focusing on card products and collaborating with gaming IPs from Tencent, NetEase, and Mihayou [3][5] - The toy industry is witnessing a new wave of mergers, with companies like Quantum Song acquiring startups to boost their market presence [6] - Bubble Mart's market capitalization soared to over 300 billion yuan, with a reported revenue of 13.88 billion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [7] Competitive Landscape and Future Prospects - The investment landscape is competitive, with firms looking to identify the next potential billion-dollar toy company [8][11] - The card game sector is seen as having more opportunities for growth compared to blind boxes, due to its diverse gameplay and interaction [11] - Companies with strong IP resources are at an advantage in the toy market, leading to strategic investments in upstream and downstream businesses to enhance their supply chains [12] Challenges and Market Saturation - Despite the excitement in the toy sector, many companies rely heavily on single IPs, which poses risks regarding sustainability and long-term success [9] - Retail channels for toy sales, such as Jiuwu Zawushe and Cool Toy, are facing challenges, with limited financing news and profitability concerns [13][15] - The competitive nature of the market is intensifying, with companies aggressively expanding their market share through various strategies [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Pop Mart's efforts in combating counterfeit products globally, with significant achievements in intercepting fake goods [1] - From January to mid-August this year, domestic customs intercepted a total of 1.83 million counterfeit items related to Pop Mart, involving 237 batches destined for 61 countries and regions [1] - Pop Mart has completed customs registration in 27 countries and regions, gradually initiating overseas customs interception of infringing products [1] Group 2 - Customs in countries such as the UK, Netherlands, France, and Italy have been actively involved in intercepting counterfeit goods, with the Netherlands alone seizing over 260,000 fake items [1] - As of now, the total number of intercepted counterfeit goods has reached 7.91 million, involving over 240 batches [1] - Pop Mart has also provided a multilingual anti-counterfeiting guide covering popular IP products like THE MONSTERS (including LABUBU), CRYBABY, and Star People, assisting frontline law enforcement in quickly identifying counterfeit products [1]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size in China expected to reach 877 billion RMB by 2025 [3] - The潮玩 IP industry has seen significant revenue increases, with companies like泡泡玛特 reporting a 204.4% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025 [6][7] - Despite the impressive growth, the industry faces challenges such as maintaining high profit margins and managing IP dependency risks [3][12] Group 2:泡泡玛特 Performance - In the first half of 2025,泡泡玛特 achieved a revenue of 138.76 billion RMB, a staggering increase of 204.4% compared to the previous year [6][7] - The company's gross profit margin remained high at 70.3%, supported by a diversified IP portfolio and global expansion [7][15] - The LABUBU series contributed significantly to revenue, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue with a year-on-year growth of 668% [11][12] Group 3: TOPTOY Performance - TOPTOY, a brand under名创优品, reported a total GMV of 10.48 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with a 52.6% increase in revenue from physical stores [20][21] - The brand's rapid store expansion led to a total of 293 stores globally, marking a 50.3% increase from the previous year [22] - TOPTOY's gross profit margin improved due to a shift towards higher-margin products, with a recent strategic financing round valuing the brand at 10 billion HKD [26][27] Group 4:卡游 Performance -卡游's supplier京华激光 reported a 61.98% revenue increase in the first half of 2025, driven by the popularity of related card products following the release of the film《哪吒之魔童闹海》 [32] - The company aims to go public in Hong Kong, with a reported revenue of 100.57 billion RMB for 2024, a significant increase from 26.62 billion RMB in 2023 [32] -卡游's core product, collectible cards, generated 82 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, maintaining a high gross margin of 71.3% [34]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively combating counterfeit products globally, with significant efforts in customs interception and legal actions against infringers [1][3][4] Group 1: Customs Interception and Global Actions - From January to mid-August, customs in China intercepted a total of 1.83 million counterfeit products related to the company, involving 237 batches destined for 61 countries and regions [1] - The company has completed customs registration in 27 countries and regions to enhance global enforcement efficiency, with a total of 7.91 million counterfeit items intercepted globally [1] - In the Netherlands alone, over 260,000 counterfeit items were seized, highlighting the active role of European customs in enforcement [1] Group 2: Collaborative Efforts and Legal Actions - The company has conducted 36 joint anti-counterfeiting operations with the UK's Fair Trading Office and Trade Standards Office, covering 21 areas including Liverpool and Birmingham [3] - In the U.S., the company has engaged former FBI investigators to conduct street inspections, leading to criminal charges against five store operators [3] - The company is pursuing civil litigation against known infringers, including a lawsuit filed in California against a 7-Eleven store for selling counterfeit products [3][4] Group 3: Online Counterfeit Measures - The company has identified over 300 infringement links across various cross-border e-commerce platforms and is utilizing the "Schedule A" procedure to collectively sue multiple anonymous sellers [4] - The company emphasizes the importance of consumer support in the fight against counterfeiting, urging consumers to purchase products through official channels [4]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of counterfeit products, particularly in the online marketplace, poses a significant challenge to the global expansion of Pop Mart's brand, leading to increased efforts in combating infringement and protecting intellectual property rights [1][3]. Group 1: Counterfeit Product Issues - From January to mid-August this year, customs in China intercepted a total of 1.83 million counterfeit Pop Mart-related products across 237 batches, intended for 61 countries and regions [1]. - The total number of intercepted counterfeit products has reached 7.91 million, involving over 240 batches, with more than 260,000 counterfeit items seized in the Netherlands alone [1][3]. - Various counterfeit products, including "LAFUFU," have emerged in the market, characterized by distorted images, poor craftsmanship, and low quality [1]. Group 2: Legal Actions and Strategies - In July, Pop Mart applied for a "temporary injunction" from the Hague court in the Netherlands, which was quickly approved, allowing for immediate action against the retail giant Jumbo [3]. - Pop Mart has collected over 300 links to infringing products across multiple cross-border e-commerce platforms and can utilize the "Schedule A" procedure to collectively sue multiple anonymous sellers [3]. Group 3: Consumer Awareness and Anti-Counterfeiting Measures - Consumers can identify genuine products through three main indicators: the verification count of the anti-counterfeit label, the presence of Pop Mart's exclusive anti-counterfeit sticker on the packaging, and the logo stamp on the product's bottom [4]. - The company has also registered the "Lafufu" trademark in July, classified under fitness equipment, as a proactive measure to combat infringement [3].

Core Insights - In 2025, certain brands like "Weilong Delicious," "Dongpeng Beverage," and "Pop Mart" are thriving in a rational consumer market, reflecting a shift in consumer psychology towards instant gratification and health-conscious choices [1][3][4] Group 1: Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage achieved a record revenue of 10.737 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a 36.37% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 2.375 billion yuan, up 37.22% [3] - Pop Mart's LABUBU series generated 4.81 billion yuan in revenue, experiencing an astonishing growth of 668% [3] - Weilong Delicious has successfully transformed its image from "junk food" to a healthy snack through packaging upgrades and flavor innovations [3][4] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The success of these brands is attributed to their understanding of consumer psychology, focusing on products that provide instant satisfaction and emotional fulfillment [3][4][6] - Young consumers are increasingly willing to pay for products that offer pleasure and satisfaction, influencing market dynamics and brand positioning [4][6] Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Dongpeng Beverage has differentiated itself from competitors like Red Bull by offering higher value products [3][4] - Pop Mart leverages unique IP culture and innovative marketing to cater to the desires of younger consumers for surprise and personalization [3][4] - Brands are adapting to changing consumer demands by introducing healthier options and innovative products, such as Weilong's new healthy snacks and Dongpeng's sugar-free variants [4]

Core Insights - AliExpress is preparing a high-profile brand expansion project, with invitations sent to Fortune 500 and leading brands, expected to launch before Double 11 [1] - The shift from low-price competition to brand collaboration is seen as a potential solution to the profit decline faced by nearly half of cross-border e-commerce sellers in 2024 [2] - The brand expansion initiative aims to enhance the platform's brand positioning and has already shown success with previous brand plans, where 95% of participating brands achieved annual sales of over $1 million [2] Company Developments - AliExpress has previously launched a "Brand Going Global Plan," with a goal to support 1,000 new brands to achieve annual sales exceeding $1 million by 2025 [2] - The platform has seen significant sales growth from brands like Pop Mart, with a 300% year-on-year increase in the collectible toy category driven by the Labubu IP [3] - The introduction of "hourly delivery" services in the UK and the expansion of "overseas hosting" in multiple markets are part of AliExpress's strategy to enhance its supply chain and logistics capabilities [4] Financial Performance - Alibaba Group reported a 19% year-on-year revenue growth for its International Digital Commerce Group, reaching approximately 34.741 billion yuan (about $4.850 billion), with cross-border business being a key growth driver [5] - The CFO indicated that the core business revenue growth supports strategic investments, with a focus on optimizing resource allocation and increasing investments in instant retail and AI technology [6] - The competitive landscape in cross-border e-commerce is intensifying, with major players like Amazon and Shein enhancing their brand support initiatives, which poses challenges for AliExpress's new project [6]

2、持续理解市场需求，产能储备、柔性化能力提升。据业绩会，公司现有毛绒产能相较年初已增加10 倍左右，达每月3000 万件，持续对市场需求进行理解与追赶——8 月28 日发售的mini LABUBU"心底密 码"系列毛绒挂件再度引起粉丝热情，虽仍在短时间内售罄，但消费者整体购买体验有明显优化；展望 后续，伴随对更多区域市场需求的理解更加深入，叠加产能及供应链安排优化带来的供应链柔性，我们 认为公司对需求与供给的匹配能力与精准度将进一步提升。 3、海外市场快速成长，运营仍有待细化之处，长期空间仍广。目前泡泡海外市场热度持续向好，泰国 ICONSIAM旗舰店在8 月初开业后店效出色，对其他门店亦并无虹吸效应，美国快速开店但需求增长更 快，带来线上占比持续提升。而相比国内，海外门店模型、线上官网、会员体系等运营细节均有待细化 之处，我们认为公司的零售基因与能力有望支撑近两年快速扩张后的同店向好，持续看好公司全球化战 略的长期空间。 盈利预测与估值 研究员：徐卓楠/张雪晴/王杰睿 公司近况 近期我们邀请了泡泡玛特管理层进行业绩后NDR交流，与投资者就供应链、IP运营、品类扩张等话题进 行了深入沟通。 评论 1、品类扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Pop Mart (09992) by 5%, from HKD 365 to HKD 382, due to a 15% increase in the 2025 net profit forecast, while maintaining a 32x implied P/E ratio for 2026, with an "Overweight" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The estimated sales for Pop Mart this year are RMB 34.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 167%, with a projected net profit of RMB 11.1 billion, indicating a 257% year-on-year growth [1] - For next year, sales are expected to reach RMB 45 billion, which corresponds to a 30% year-on-year increase, and net profit is forecasted at RMB 14.6 billion, reflecting a 31% year-on-year growth [1] - Morgan Stanley has adjusted the net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 upwards by 15%, 5%, and 4% respectively, driven by increased revenue expectations from Greater China and overseas markets, as well as a reduction in operating expense ratios [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Sales in Greater China are projected to be RMB 17.3 billion this year, indicating a 96% year-on-year increase, with monthly store productivity reaching RMB 1.7 million, doubling year-on-year [1] - Online sales are expected to increase from 35% in the first half of the year to 40% in the second half [1] - Sales in the Asia-Pacific and Americas markets are estimated at approximately RMB 8 billion, with monthly store productivity rising from RMB 3.8 million in the first half to between RMB 5 million and RMB 5.5 million in the second half [2] - The European region is projected to have sales of RMB 1.4 billion [2] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The estimated gross margin for 2025 is 71.6%, with Greater China at 68% and overseas markets at 75% [2] - The core operating profit margin for the second half of the year is expected to be 43%, compared to 41.6% in the first half [2] - The net profit margin for the second half of the year is anticipated to be lower than that of the first half [2]