Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international sugar market is under supply pressure, with the increasing production pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and the pressure from the beet harvest. The supply side remains bearish, and the demand shows a slowdown, leading to a weak and downward - trending sugar price [5]. - The domestic sugar market is in a downward trend, fluctuating around the 5500 mark. Trading volume is not significantly enlarged, and the basis is relatively strong. At the end of the season, domestic sugar stocks are gradually being cleared, which supports the futures price. Before the National Day, funds are mainly flowing out, and the decline of futures sugar slows down [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Spot and Spread Data Tracking and Display 1.1 Spot Prices and Basis in Production Areas - Spot prices in production areas such as Guangxi Nanning, Yunnan Kunming, and Yingkou are in a downward - trending and fluctuating state. The basis in these areas is also expected to weaken, with the basis in Nanning, Kunming, and Yingkou showing a decline this week compared to last week [2][4]. 1.2 Inter - month Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou sugar is in a short - term weak and fluctuating state, with a slight rebound this week [11]. 1.3 Domestic - Foreign Spreads - The import cost is relatively low. Although the import profit within the quota has shrunk, it is still relatively large [15]. 2. Overview of Key Market Data 2.1 International Market Key Data - **Brazil**: The sugar production in Brazil has entered the peak season, with a high cane - to - sugar ratio. However, attention should be paid to the sugar content in cane and the cane crushing volume. The sugar export in Brazil has slightly slowed down. The production in Thailand and India has not started yet, but the expected increase in production will bring pressure to the market [20][26][29]. 2.2 Domestic Market Key Data - **Production and Consumption**: China's sugar production is expected to increase, and consumption is expected to slightly increase. The production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar have turned bearish, with the inventory decreasing but the speed slowing down. The import volume of sugar has increased, and the import volume in August increased month - on - month. The import of syrup/pre - mixed powder in August decreased month - on - month [5][33][36][38][40]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream demand is not bad but not outstanding either. Attention should be paid to the seasonal demand in the downstream market, which shows a situation of "peak season not prosperous" during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day [42][45].

矿端扰动超预期，铜价偏强运行 沪铜周度报告·2025年9月28日 姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证书号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证书号：Z0022465 联系人：陈天敏 从业资格号：F03134700 目 录 01 周度综述：宏观/周度数据/多空逻辑/风险提示 02 铜产业链解析：价格/价差/成本/利润/供给/需求/库存 CONTENTS 资金持仓：外盘持仓CFTC/LME 03 Part 01 周度综述 | | 项目 | | | | | 周度数据 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上期 | 当期 | 环比 | 环比率 | 综述 | | | 铜精矿现货TC（美元/ 吨 ） | -40.8 | -40.36 | 0.44 | 1.08% | Grasberg生产事故扰动市场 但因印尼已实施出口禁令 对国内铜矿供应影响有限 ， ， ， 现货TC小幅反弹 后续重点关注对11月长单谈判的影响 ， 。 | | 供给端 | 精废价差（元/吨） | 1917 | 2337 | 420 | ...

中泰期货苹果市场表现与基本面周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 2025-09-28 本周观点 本页数据来源:卓创资讯 中泰期货整理 | 利多因素 | 1、新季苹果个头同比偏小；2、新季苹果价格有高开预期；4、山东产区晚熟富士质量或偏差（果锈偏多）；4、西部部分产区质量偏差 | | --- | --- | | 利空因素 | 1、新季苹果产量同比去年基本持平；2、高开秤价不利于消费；3、市场替代水果价格偏低 | | 市 | 产区方面：山东红将军进入尾声，西部采青逐步上市，价格偏高。晚熟富士方面，9月下旬，东部、西部产区逐步进入大量摘袋阶段。 | | 场 | 据调研，山东产区晚熟富士果锈较前期预期偏多，水裂纹发生率暂时偏低；西部产区果面洁净度稍有偏差，但仍在正常年份水平，局 | | 基 | | | 本 | 部产区水裂纹发生严重（水裂纹现象或是前期干旱，9月份阴雨天气偏多导致）。据天气预报，部分苹果产区有阴雨天气，需重点关 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weekly lithium carbonate fluctuated without an obvious trend. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene is still increasing but approaching its peak, and imports are expected to decrease in September, with overall supply remaining flat. Demand is strong in the peak season, with a 5% increase in September, leading to inventory depletion from September to October, which supports the current price. However, demand is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and with the expected resumption of downstream mines, the balance sheet will gradually turn into surplus, putting pressure on prices. Before the holiday, there is no new clear - direction driver, so lithium carbonate will mainly fluctuate in the short term. [14] - The strategy suggests wide - range fluctuations and light - position operations within the range for single - side trading, with no suggestions for spreads and options. Variables include changes in the macro - environment, increased supply, and demand falling short of expectations. [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 01: Lithium Carbonate Overview - **Supply**: Total weekly production was 20,516 tons, a 0.75% increase. Spodumene production increased by 0.93% due to increased hedging profits, approaching a short - term peak; mica production decreased by 0.70% and remained stable after CATL's shutdown; salt - lake production increased by 0.66% with new capacity in the ramping - up stage; recycling production increased by 1.85%, and imports remained unchanged. Chile's reduced shipments in August will lead to a decrease in imports in September. [13] - **Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.15%, and that of ternary materials increased by 0.68%. The peak - season demand is strong, and downstream procurement is active. Pre - holiday stocking is basically completed. [13] - **Inventory**: The port inventory of lithium concentrate decreased by 4.45%, and the total inventory decreased by 0.51%. Smelter inventory decreased by 2.80%, and downstream inventory increased by 2.35%. Overall inventory decreased due to strong demand. [13] - **Valuation**: Ore prices increased slightly with the market, raising costs and compressing profit margins. There is no obvious hedging profit. The profit from spodumene decreased by 58.69%, and that from mica decreased by 32.39%. [13] - **Balance Sheet**: In 2025, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate showed certain trends. The new August import and export data showed that imports were slightly lower than expected, and Chile's August shipments decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, resulting in a 3,000 - ton reduction in September imports. [15] Part 02: Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Prices - **Lithium Carbonate Market - related**: It includes data on lithium carbonate futures such as the basis, trading - to - holding ratio, trading volume, and open interest, as well as spot prices and cost - profit data. [17] - **Lithium Ore Prices**: It shows the prices of spodumene concentrate (6% - CIF China) and lithium mica over the years. [27][30] - **Lithium Carbonate Prices**: It presents the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, their price differences, and cost - profit data. [35][41] - **Lithium Hydroxide Price Spreads**: It includes the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide and their price differences with lithium carbonate. [63] - **Cathode Material Prices**: It shows the prices of ternary materials of different grades and lithium iron phosphate. [66] - **Power Battery Cell Prices**: It presents the prices of square lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and 523 square ternary cells. [68][70][71] Part 03: Lithium Carbonate Upstream Supply Environment - **Lithium Concentrate**: It shows the import volume of lithium concentrate, especially from Australia, including monthly and cumulative data and their year - on - year and month - on - month changes. [75][76][80] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It includes capacity, monthly and weekly operating rates, production volume (total and by raw material), import and export volume, and total supply, along with their changes over time. [83][88][108] Part 04: Lithium Carbonate Downstream Consumption Environment - **Apparent Demand**: It shows the apparent consumption volume of lithium carbonate. [113] - **Real Demand**: It includes the production volume and monthly operating rates of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate. [113] - **Terminal Demand**: It includes the production volume, shipment volume, inventory - to - sales ratio, and installation volume of lithium batteries, power batteries, and energy - storage and consumer batteries, as well as the production and sales of new - energy vehicles, their penetration rate, and energy - storage bid - winning scale and capacity. [113] Part 05: Lithium Carbonate Inventory Structure - **Weekly Inventory**: It includes warehouse receipts by region, smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, other inventory, and total inventory. [212] - **Monthly Inventory**: It includes smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, and total inventory. [212] - **Upstream and Downstream Inventory**: It includes lithium ore inventory, lithium iron phosphate finished - product inventory, and ternary material finished - product inventory. [212]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil strengthened significantly this week. The EIA inventory showed a large drawdown during the week, indicating the end of the peak season. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts flared up again, causing the market to worry about crude oil supply to some extent. The logic of peak - season demand for crude oil is approaching its end, and geopolitical conflicts are unlikely to have a significant impact. The market is expected to shift back to trading based on weak fundamentals. On the supply side, 1.66 million barrels per day of production is planned to resume, and the OPEC+ meeting in early October may continue to increase production. The magnitude of the increase requires close attention. On the demand side, the economic data released by the US is mediocre, which may suppress demand, and inventories may enter a continuous accumulation phase. Overall, the contradiction of oversupply in the crude oil market may become more prominent, and oil prices are more likely to fall than rise [26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Core Indicators and Views This Week's Key Event Review - **Fundamentals**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 19 decreased by 3.821 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.42 million barrels in the previous week. As of September 22, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.833 million barrels to 14.922 million barrels. The EIA report showed that for the week ending September 19, US crude oil exports decreased by 793,000 barrels per day to 4.484 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels to 13.501 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels, a decrease of 0.15%. The average four - week supply of US crude oil products was 20.466 million barrels per day, a 0.94% increase compared to the same period last year. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. The US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 803,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. A refinery of Rosneft in Russia suspended its oil processing operations after a drone attack on September 20. Iraq reached an agreement to export oil from the Kurdish oil fields through the Iraq - Turkey pipeline. The total number of US oil rigs for the week ending September 26 was 424, compared with 418 in the previous week. The Iraqi oil ministry officials stated that the resumption of the Iraq - Turkey oil pipeline will increase the crude oil export volume to nearly 3.6 million barrels per day in the coming days, and Iraq's production and export levels will remain within the OPEC - set quota of 4.2 million barrels per day [10][11][14] - **Macroeconomics**: The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025 (previously forecasted as 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). It also expects the US economic growth rate to slow down to 1.8% in 2025 (previously forecasted as 1.6%) and be 1.5% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). The one - year loan prime rate in China as of September 22 was 3%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in September was 52, in line with expectations but down from 53 in the previous month; the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in September was 53.9, slightly lower than the expected 54 and down from 54.5 in the previous month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 20 was 218,000, lower than the expected 235,000. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in the US in August was 2.9%, far exceeding the expected - 0.5%. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in the second quarter was 3.8%, higher than the expected 3.3%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the US in the second quarter was 2.6%, slightly higher than the expected 2.5%, and the final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter was 2.5%, higher than the expected 1.7% [16] - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: Trump stated at the United Nations General Assembly on September 23 that if Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs. He also called on Europe to stop all energy purchases from Russia and urged the United Nations to take anti - Russian oil measures with the US. On September 24, Trump said that with the support of the EU, Ukraine is capable of fighting and regaining its entire territory. On September 23, Polish Prime Minister Tusk announced that the border crossing with Belarus would be reopened at 0:00 on the 25th. On September 25, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) stated that US fighter jets urgently took off to identify and intercept four Russian military aircraft flying near Alaska [18][22] - **Institutional Forecasts**: The EIA short - term energy outlook report expects the WTI crude oil price to be $64.16 per barrel in 2025 (previously expected to be $63.58) and $47.77 per barrel in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). It expects the Brent crude oil price to be $67.80 per barrel in 2025 (previously expected to be $67.22) and $51.43 per barrel in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast) [23] Next Week's Core Indicator Calendar - Key indicators to be released next week include China's official manufacturing PMI for September on September 30, the number of US JOLTs job openings in August and the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September on September 3, the EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 26 on October 1, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 27 on October 2, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US for September on October 3, and the total number of US oil rigs for the week ending October 3 on October 4 [24] 02 Price Basic Data Crude Oil Basic Price - The prices of Brent, WTI, SC main contract, and Middle East main contract on September 26, 2025, were $69.22, $65.72, 491.3 yuan, and $70.62 respectively. The weekly changes were $2.54, $3.32, 4.3 yuan, and $1.66 respectively, with weekly change rates of 4%, 5%, 1%, and 2% respectively. The monthly changes were $2.52, $2.47, - 4.8 yuan, and $1.37 respectively, with monthly change rates of 4%, 4%, - 1%, and 2% respectively. The annual changes were - $1.87, - $1.95, - 31.9 yuan, and - $1.32 respectively, with annual change rates of - 3%, - 3%, - 6%, and - 2% respectively [33] Crude Oil Forward Price - The report provides the forward curves of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil from September 22 to September 26, 2025 [54] Crude Oil Monthly Spread - The report presents the daily data of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil monthly spreads, including the spreads between the first - month contract and the second - month contract, the first - month contract and the third - month contract, and the first - month contract and the sixth - month contract [56] Crude Oil Disk Spread - The report shows the daily data of the spreads between Brent and WTI, Brent and Oman, and the quality spread EFS (Brent - Dubai) [64][67] Main Oil Grade Premiums and Discounts - The report provides the monthly data of premiums and discounts for various oil grades, including Iran's OSP to Asia for light and heavy crude oil, Saudi Arabia's OSP to Asia for ultra - light, extra - light, light, medium, and heavy crude oil, Iraq's OSP to Asia for Basra medium and heavy crude oil, and Kuwait's FOB premiums to Asia [70][72][78] US Dollar Index - The report shows the relationship between the US dollar index and the WTI crude oil price [86] 03 World Crude Oil Supply and Demand World Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - **OPEC Supply - Demand Balance**: The OPEC supply - demand balance table shows the world's crude oil supply and demand situation from 2022 to 2026. The world's total demand is expected to increase from 99.87 million barrels per day in 2022 to 107.1 million barrels per day in 2026, with an average annual increase of about 1.5 million barrels per day. The world's total supply is expected to increase from 100.3 million barrels per day in 2022 to 107.67 million barrels per day in 2026. The supply - demand gap is expected to change from a surplus of 0.43 million barrels per day in 2022 to a slight shortage in some quarters in the future [97][99][100] - **EIA Supply - Demand Forecast**: The EIA's world supply - demand balance table shows that the world's total production is expected to increase from 102.6 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 to 106.99 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The world's total consumption is expected to increase from 101.79 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024 to 105.66 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. The net extraction of global crude oil and other oil product inventories is expected to show a downward trend overall [107][109] OPEC Major Country Production - The OPEC+ quota table shows the production quotas of major OPEC countries from January to October 2025. The total quota of OPEC+ is expected to increase from 30.423 million barrels per day in January to 33.017 million barrels per day in October, with a total increase of 2.594 million barrels per day [94] Crude Oil Supply and Demand Forecast - The report provides the supply and demand forecasts of OPEC and EIA, including the production and consumption of different regions and countries, as well as the changes in inventories [97][107] Refinery Maintenance Capacity - Not provided in the document Refining Profit - Not provided in the document Crude Oil Inventory - The OPEC report shows the changes in OECD commercial inventories, strategic reserve inventories, and total inventories from 2022 to 2026. The EIA report shows the net extraction of crude oil and other oil product inventories in the world, the US, and other OECD countries from the first quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2026, as well as the ending commercial inventories of crude oil and other oil products in OECD countries [100][109]

姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 供应压力仍大，震荡思路对待 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年9月28日 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产量 | 国产量 | 63.10 | 64.26 | 1.17 | 64.26 | 66.54 | 本周产量略微增加，下周装置检修复产 较多，产量可能会略微增加。 | | （万吨） | 检修损失量 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 供需压力仍大，继续偏弱震荡 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年9月28日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 2、聚丙烯估值-成本利润 | | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 原油 | 66.68 | 69.42 | 2.74 | | 动力煤价格震荡反弹。丙烷价格本周 | | | 原料 | 煤炭 | 700 | 709 | 9.00 | | 震荡走弱，原油价 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider buying on dips and adopting a range - trading strategy. The A - share market shows divergence, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short term. The probability of central bank easing is increasing [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Continue to consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the long - term, and maintain the idea of buying bonds on dips, betting on future monetary policy easing [10]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may continue to fluctuate and rise in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the demand of the finished steel market during "Golden September and Silver October" and the inventory replenishment rhythm before the National Day [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, the mid - to long - term strategy is to go short on rallies, and the same for silicon iron. The price fluctuations are mainly affected by the sentiment of coking coal in the black sector [13]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, observe the sentiment of the industrial chain in the short term and then turn bearish; for glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: For aluminum, it is advisable to wait and see at high levels; for alumina, consider shorting on rallies; for zinc, the price is expected to decline after the macro impact fades; for lithium carbonate, it will fluctuate widely; for industrial silicon, consider buying on dips for far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it will maintain a wide - range shock [20]. - **Agricultural Products**: For cotton, be cautious when shorting on rallies; for sugar, maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term; for eggs, adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds; for apples, consider buying on dips with a light position; for corn, sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract; for dates, wait and see; for hogs, the short - term price will be weak and short on rallies for near - month contracts [23][25][26]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For crude oil, consider shorting on rallies; for fuel oil, its price will follow the oil price; for plastics, it will be weak and fluctuate; for rubber, be cautious in holding positions; for methanol, it will be in a relatively strong shock; for caustic soda, it will fluctuate; for asphalt, it will follow the oil price; for liquefied petroleum gas, maintain a bearish view in the long - term; for paper pulp, it will fluctuate; for urea, it will fluctuate; for synthetic rubber, be cautious in holding positions [31][35][36]. Summary by Relevant Categories Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market shows divergence, with the ChiNext Index hitting new stage highs. The CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 index futures are in different trends. The overall market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips and trade in a range. The A - share trading volume is 2.39 trillion yuan, and the market capitalization of the technology sector accounts for over 1/4. Long - term funds' holding of A - share market value has increased by 32% compared to the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan" [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The end - of - quarter capital market is balanced, with capital interest rates rising slightly. It is recommended to steepen the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the long - term and buy bonds on dips. The scale of public funds in China has exceeded 36 trillion yuan, and the scale of stock - type funds has increased significantly in August [10]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Supply is gradually recovering, but "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions are expected to ferment again. The price is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory replenishment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The new production capacity of manganese silicon is the main factor affecting the long - term market. For silicon iron, it is in an oversupply situation. The prices of both are affected by the sentiment of coking coal in the black sector [13]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to observe in the short term and then turn bearish. Glass prices are rising, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum has low - level inventory replenishment before the festival, but the overall demand is insufficient. Alumina has a surplus pressure, with high production and high supply, and the price is expected to decline [15]. - **Zinc**: The domestic social inventory is fluctuating, and the smelter's production resumption rhythm is accelerating. The zinc price is expected to decline after the macro impact fades [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term de - stocking supports the price, and it will fluctuate widely without obvious driving factors [19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be strong in a range, and it is advisable to buy on dips for far - month contracts. Polysilicon is mainly affected by policy progress and will maintain a wide - range shock [20]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting on rallies, and pay attention to the impact of the crude oil market and international trade tariffs [23]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international sugar supply is in a surplus situation. It is recommended to short - sell in the medium - term and pay attention to the change of the sugar - to - ethanol ratio in Brazil and the domestic sugar price policy in India [25]. - **Eggs**: The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds. Pay attention to the capacity reduction situation [26]. - **Apples**: The new - season opening price is expected to be high. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [27]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract and pay attention to the purchasing enthusiasm of traders and downstream enterprises [28]. - **Dates**: The market price is stable, and it is recommended to wait and see [29]. - **Hogs**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts [29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to weaken after the peak season. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations and OPEC+ quota adjustments [31]. - **Fuel Oil**: Its price will follow the oil price [32]. - **Plastics**: The supply pressure is large, and it will be weak and fluctuate. It may have a short - term rebound and then return to the fundamental logic [35]. - **Rubber**: Affected by extreme weather, the raw material price in China has strengthened. It is recommended to be cautious in holding positions [36]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory pressure is large, but the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. It is recommended to trade in a relatively strong shock range [36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, and it will fluctuate [38]. - **Asphalt**: It will follow the oil price, and the current demand is in the peak season [38]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply is abundant, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view in the long - term [42]. - **Paper Pulp**: The spot fundamentals are weak, but the external market is strong. It is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to port de - stocking and spot transactions [43]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to trade in a shock range and pay attention to export and procurement news [44]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The main contract price has declined, and it is recommended to be cautious in holding positions before the festival [45].

黑色供应周报-铁合金 2025年9月26日 全国硅铁周度产量:万吨 14 20 18 13 16 12 14 11 IS 10 10 8 9 6 4 2 下载 8 下午餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐店加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐 累计同比(右轴) 2023 -2021 2022 2024 ·2025 累计同比(右轴) 2022 2024 -2021 - 2023 2025 内蒙古-硅锰日均产量:万吨 内蒙古-硅铁日均产量:万吨 1.60 0.65 1.50 0.60 1.40 0.55 1.30 0.50 1.20 0.45 1.10 0.40 1.00 0.35 0.90 0.80 0.30 一个目标。 2017年 12月 12月 12月 12日 12時 12時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 10時 1000 下されるなど、そこではなくなるとなると、そのことではない。 ここではなかったときになるとことできる。 このことではない。 2022 2023 2024 2025 2021 2022 2023 ·2024 ·2025 宁夏-硅锰日均产量:万 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean oil, PTA, Bean No. 2, Plastic, White sugar, Zhengzhou cotton, Palm oil [6] - **Bearish**: Manganese silicon, Rebar, Glass, PVC, Polypropylene, Silver, Rapeseed oil [6] - **Sideways**: Asphalt, Corn, Rubber, Corn starch, Rapeseed meal, Tin, Iron ore, Bean No. 1, Shanghai gold, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai copper, Eggs, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai lead, Coke, Coking coal, Hot - rolled coil [6] Core Views - A - shares are expected to be volatile, with the probability of central bank loosening increasing. For stocks, a short - term sideways approach is recommended, and for bonds, a long - term bullish strategy is considered. In the commodity market, different commodities have different outlooks based on their supply - demand fundamentals, policy impacts, and geopolitical factors [14][15] Summaries by Categories Macro Information - China sets new climate goals by 2035, including a 7% - 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, a 30% share of non - fossil energy, and 6 - fold growth in wind and solar power [8] - China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations [8] - Alibaba partners with NVIDIA on Physical AI and plans 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure investment [8] - The central bank conducts 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations in September, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan [9] - A new policy - based financial instrument of about 500 billion yuan is being established [9] - The US imposes a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts since August 1, and some EU products are tariff - exempt since September [10] - The US mining giant's Indonesian copper mine has a mudslide, suspending production until 2027 and reducing 2026 output by 35% [11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Consider buying on dips and trading sideways. A - shares are volatile, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 hitting new highs. The central bank's future easing probability is increasing [13][14] Treasury Bond Futures - Consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the long - term and buying bonds on dips, betting on more monetary easing [15] Black Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to rise in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the demand of finished products in "Golden September and Silver October" and downstream restocking before the National Day [17] Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon, expect a bearish trend in the medium - to - long - term; for silicon iron, also recommend a bearish approach in the medium - term [18] Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, observe the market sentiment in the short - term and turn bearish later; for glass, stay on the sidelines for now [19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, recommend waiting on the sidelines at high levels; for alumina, suggest shorting on rallies [20] Lithium Carbonate - Prices are supported by short - term inventory reduction and are expected to fluctuate widely [21] Industrial Silicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, and consider buying on dips for far - month contracts [22] Polysilicon - The market is mainly driven by policy progress, with a wide - range volatile trend expected in the short - term [22][23] Agricultural Products Cotton - Adopt a cautious short - selling strategy, and pay attention to the impact of the crude oil market and tariffs [25][26] Sugar - Keep a short - selling strategy in the medium - term, and focus on the impact of typhoons and holiday capital flows [27] Eggs - Recommend short - selling on rallies, with a weakening trend expected after the peak season [27][28] Apples - Suggest buying on dips with a light position, and pay attention to the weather in production areas [29][30] Corn - Recommend selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract, and the price may decline further but has some support [31] Red Dates - Recommend short - selling on rallies [32] Pigs - Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts, and the spot price is expected to oscillate at a low level [32][33] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Consider short - selling on rallies as the market may turn to oversupply [35][36] Fuel Oil - Prices will follow crude oil, affected by geopolitical risks and oversupply expectations [37] Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to be weak and volatile, with a short - term rebound possible [38] Rubber - The price may turn strong in the short - term, and pay attention to the impact of weather [39] Methanol - Adopt a sideways - bullish strategy, and focus on port inventory reduction [40] Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to oscillate, affected by the price of liquid chlorine and the macro - market [41] Asphalt - Follow crude oil prices, and the demand is in the peak season [42] Polyester Industry Chain - The products are expected to continue to rebound, with different fundamentals for each product [43] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Adopt a long - term bearish strategy, with short - term cost - driven strength possible [43] Others Offset - Printing Paper - The market is expected to oscillate, and consider buying on dips or selling put options [45] Pulp - The market is expected to oscillate, and observe port inventory reduction and spot transactions [46] Logs - The market is expected to oscillate, and consider buying on dips if the price support is effective [47] Urea - Adopt an oscillating strategy, and pay attention to export news and downstream demand [47] Synthetic Rubber - Consider short - term long - positions with a stop - loss, and pay attention to macro - policies and downstream procurement [48]