纺织服饰 行 业 研 究 2025 年 12 月 14 日 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 寒潮催化下看好波司登，Nike 修复看好运动制造 中性 ——纺织服装行业周报 20251214 相关研究 《Nike 调整架构以贴近市场，看好运动产 业链机会——纺织服装行业周报 20251207》 2025/12/07 《 本周重磅发布策略报告，挖掘新消费、 看好全球制造——纺织服装行业周报 20251123》 2025/11/23 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 本期投资提示： 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 / 行 业 ⚫ 本周纺织 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly on the mid-to-high-end market and the used car market, indicating a favorable investment environment [2]. Core Views - The industry is experiencing substantial progress in countering "involution," with the State Administration for Market Regulation's pricing management measures reflecting a strong commitment to control [2]. - A three-year price increase cycle is anticipated, with effective demand release in the mid-to-high-end market and companies with overseas expansion strategies mitigating domestic pressures [2]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as BAIC, JAC, Xiaopeng, and NIO, as well as used car enterprises like Uxin, which are expected to benefit from the price increase cycle [2]. Industry Situation Update - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of December were 42,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 32% and a month-on-month decrease of 8% [2]. - Recent weeks have seen a decline in traditional and new energy raw material price indices, with traditional car raw material prices down by 1.8% week-on-week and 0.6% month-on-month, while new energy raw material prices decreased by 1.2% week-on-week but increased by 0.9% month-on-month [2]. - The total transaction value in the automotive industry for the week was 469.021 billion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 11.32% [2]. Market Situation Update - The automotive industry index closed at 7662.00 points, with a weekly increase of 0.16%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 0.08% [2]. - A total of 90 stocks in the industry rose, while 180 fell, with the largest gainers being Chaojie Co., Huamao Technology, and Yueling Co., which increased by 39.0%, 28.5%, and 21.9% respectively [2]. Important Events - The continuation of national subsidy policies is expected to provide stable support for consumption and industrial upgrades [3]. - The focus on countering "involution" has been elevated to a key reform task, indicating a shift towards regulating market competition and improving profitability structures [5]. - The smart driving sector is transitioning into a phase of large-scale commercialization, with ecosystem collaboration becoming crucial for development [14]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic leading manufacturers such as NIO, Xiaomi, Xiaopeng, and Li Auto, as well as companies involved in smart technology like Jianghuai Automobile and Seres [2]. - It highlights the importance of state-owned enterprise reforms and recommends attention to SAIC Motor and Dongfeng Motor [2]. - Companies with strong performance growth and overseas expansion capabilities in the parts sector, such as Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, and Newquay, are also recommended [2].

Economic Characteristics - Since mid-2025, the U.S. economy has exhibited "jobless growth" with an average monthly non-farm employment increase dropping to 18,000, significantly below the historical average of 109,000 during non-recession periods[1][12] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a "K-shaped economy," characterized by diverging consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households see consumption growth significantly outpacing that of low-income households[1][2] Causes of K-shaped Economy - The "jobless growth" phenomenon is attributed to structural imbalances in the economy, including economic slowdown, monetary easing, and the impacts of Trump's policies on immigration and tariffs, alongside a structural bull market in U.S. stocks[2][42] - The labor market has become increasingly relaxed, with low-wage groups feeling the economic downturn first and recovering last, leading to a widening gap in income and wealth distribution[2][43] Long-term Trends - The K-shaped characteristics of income and wealth distribution in the U.S. have been developing since the 1980s, with real labor income growth lagging behind productivity growth, reflecting the rise of capital and technology over labor[2][62] - The wealth distribution is heavily skewed, with the top 20% of households holding 71% of net assets and 87% of corporate equity and mutual fund assets, while the bottom 20% hold only about 3%[2][31] Future Outlook - The U.S. economy may transition from "jobless growth" to "low employment growth" in 2026, but the K-shaped characteristics are unlikely to change significantly due to a persistently relaxed labor market and continued expansion of AI capital expenditures[3][68] - Historical cases of "jobless recovery" indicate that total demand must expand to elevate labor demand and tighten the labor market, a path that may be challenging to achieve in the current economic climate[3][68]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competition for C-end AI entry points in the internet sector, with significant developments from ByteDance and Alibaba. ByteDance's upcoming conference will focus on the performance and pricing of its Doubao model, while Alibaba has restructured its C-end business group to enhance its AI capabilities [2]. - The gaming sector shows promising growth, with companies like Giant Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment being recommended due to their strong product pipelines and market potential. The report anticipates a net profit of 3.21 billion for 37 Interactive Entertainment in 2025, with a PE ratio of 15x [2]. - The advertising sector, particularly Focus Media, is noted for its ongoing mergers and high dividend support, with expectations of continued investment in internet advertising [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Internet Sector - ByteDance is focusing on the performance of its Doubao AI model and cloud business strategy, while Alibaba aims to create a super app through its newly formed C-end business group [2]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth has accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 34% for FY26Q2, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth [2]. Gaming Sector - Giant Network is expected to see significant user growth and revenue increase, while 37 Interactive Entertainment is entering a profit recovery phase with a projected net profit of 3.21 billion in 2025 [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the young female gaming market and the company's ability to adapt and innovate [2]. Advertising Sector - Focus Media's merger with New Wave is progressing, which is expected to enhance its bargaining power within the industry. The company has shown strong alpha performance despite macroeconomic challenges [2]. - The report anticipates sustained investment in internet advertising, particularly in local life services and AI applications [2]. Valuation Table - The valuation table provides insights into key companies, showing Tencent Holdings with a market cap of 51.14 billion and a projected revenue growth of 14% for 2025. Other companies like Giant Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment are also highlighted for their growth potential and profitability metrics [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a weak performance in the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 1.6% from December 5 to December 12, 2025, underperforming the market [3][4]. Core Insights - The cosmetics sector faced pressure in November, with overall GMV in the Taobao system showing weakness due to the pre-promotion of the Double 11 sales event and the rise of Douyin as a sales channel. Brands like Han Shu and Lin Qingxuan maintained stable GMV, while others like Feicui continued to grow significantly [3][9]. - The collagen medical beauty segment is expanding, with two new animal-derived collagen products approved for market entry, expected to drive growth in this area [3][9]. - The report highlights the leading market share of Minoxidil products from Mandi International in the hair loss treatment market, with a steady revenue growth from 982 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 1.455 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 21.7% from 2022 to 2024 [10][11]. - L'Oréal's acquisition of an additional 10% stake in Galderma, raising its total ownership to 20%, signifies a strategic shift towards the medical beauty and skin health sectors, aiming to adapt to the slowing growth in the Chinese beauty market [3][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Beauty Care Index and its sub-indices for cosmetics and personal care products have shown declines of 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, indicating underperformance compared to the Shenwan A Index [4][6]. Key Market Developments - The overall GMV for cosmetics in November was weak, influenced by earlier sales spikes in October and competition from Douyin [9]. - The approval of new collagen products is expected to enhance the supply side of the medical beauty market, with projections for continued expansion in 2026 [9][22]. Company Highlights - Mandi International has maintained a dominant position in the Minoxidil market, with its products accounting for approximately 57% and 71% of the market share in the hair loss treatment and Minoxidil categories, respectively, as of 2024 [11][13]. - The report notes that the Chinese consumer healthcare market is projected to grow from 931.3 billion yuan in 2018 to 16.42 trillion yuan by 2024, with significant growth in hair health and skin health segments [12][13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the significant market recovery in the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE), with the BSE 50 index rising by 2.79% and trading volume increasing by 40.57% week-on-week [11][8][3] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of stocks related to commercial aerospace and satellite internet, with notable mentions of Tianli Composite and Fujida, indicating a thematic focus on these sectors [8][9][10] - The anticipated "market capitalization allocation" reform is discussed as a means to alleviate "frozen capital" pressure, which is becoming increasingly necessary due to the rapid growth of frozen funds approaching one trillion [10][8][9] Group 2 - The report notes that the BSE 50 index closed at 1447.69 points, reflecting a 2.79% increase, with a median PE ratio of 40.73 times [12][11] - A total of 204 stocks in the BSE rose, while 79 declined, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 2.58, with Tianli Composite and Dapeng Industrial leading the gains [32][11] - The report outlines the upcoming IPOs and approvals, including Jiangtian Technology for subscription and Chuangda New Materials and Saiying Electronics for review [24][29] Group 3 - The report indicates that the trading volume for the week was 4.28 billion shares, with a total trading value of 97.529 billion yuan, marking a 39.47% increase in volume and a 40.57% increase in value compared to the previous week [22][11] - The report also highlights the performance of the new third board, with six new listings and eight delistings, and a total of 5991 companies listed as of December 12, 2025 [41][43] - The report provides insights into the top-performing stocks and their turnover rates, with Dapeng Industrial showing a turnover rate of 266.60% and a weekly increase of 51.12% [38][32]

FFFF 2025 年 12 月 14 日 本期投资提示: 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1) 上证指数下跌 0.34%，深证成指上涨 0.84%，沪深 300 下跌 ● 0.08%，有色金属（申万）指数下跌 0.47%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.39 个百分点。2) 分子板块看，环比 上周，贵金属上涨 1.50%，铝下跌 4.72%，能源金属上涨 0.48%，小金属上涨 1.76%，铜下跌 0.83%, 铅锌下跌 1.45%，金属新材料上涨 2.71%。 相关研究 若研究院 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 降息如期落地,金属价格强势 波段人 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is to actively participate in the new stock issuance [29][31]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading consumer goods label printing manufacturer with strong brand influence and industry position, focusing on high-end consumer brand labels and maintaining long-term relationships with numerous well-known clients [3][8][29]. - The company has demonstrated steady revenue and profit growth, with a projected revenue of 538 million yuan and a net profit of approximately 101.81 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 18.36% and 16.94% over the past three years, respectively [9][14]. - The global self-adhesive label printing market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3% from 2023 to 2026, with Asia accounting for 44% of the market share, highlighting the significant role of China in this sector [18][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Leadership and Capacity Expansion - The company, established in 1992, specializes in film and paper self-adhesive labels used in various consumer sectors, including beverages, daily chemicals, and food [7]. - The company has a strong market presence, ranking second in the domestic daily chemical label market and fourth in the beverage label market as of 2022 [8]. 2. Issuance Plan - The new stock issuance will adopt a direct pricing method, with an issuance price of 21.21 yuan per share and an expected fundraising of 280 million yuan [12][14]. - The initial issuance scale is 13.21 million shares, accounting for 20% of the total shares post-issuance, with a low expected circulation ratio of 18% [12][14]. 3. Industry Situation - The self-adhesive label market in China is growing, with production increasing from 7.1 billion square meters in 2019 to 9.7 billion square meters in 2023, and projected to reach 15.5 billion square meters by 2031 [18][20]. - The industry is characterized by a large scale but low concentration, with around 6,000 label printing companies in China [20][21]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong client base, including global brands like Unilever and Procter & Gamble, due to its high-quality products and efficient service [22]. - The company possesses advanced printing technologies and a comprehensive solution capability, allowing it to meet diverse customer needs effectively [22][23]. 5. Comparable Companies - The company has a projected revenue of 538.15 million yuan for 2024, with a gross margin of 29.97%, which is competitive compared to its peers [28]. 6. Subscription Analysis Opinion - The company is positioned as a leading player in the high-end consumer goods label printing market, with a strong brand influence and a focus on capacity expansion to solidify its market position [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, despite recent underperformance compared to the market [3][4]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weaker performance, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 1.6% from December 5 to December 12, 2025, underperforming the market [4][5]. - The report highlights that the November sales in the cosmetics sector were impacted by pre-Double 11 promotions and the rise of Douyin as a sales channel, leading to a weaker overall GMV [4][10]. - The collagen medical beauty segment is expanding, with two new animal-sourced collagen products approved for market, indicating growth potential in this area [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the strong market position of Mandi International in the minoxidil hair growth market, with a revenue increase from 982 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 1.455 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 21.7% [4][11][12]. - L'Oréal's recent acquisition of an additional 10% stake in Galderma signifies a strategic shift towards medical aesthetics and skin health, aiming to adapt to the slowing growth in the Chinese beauty market [4][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Beauty Care Index decreased by 1.6%, with the Shenwan Cosmetics Index down by 1.2% and the Shenwan Personal Care Index down by 1.7% during the specified period [4][5]. - Notable stock performances included Water Sheep Co. (+5.9%) and Jinsong New Materials (+4.3%), while Hongmian Co. (-10.6%) and Juzhi Biological (-8.4%) faced significant declines [7]. Market Trends - The overall GMV for cosmetics in November was weak, influenced by the earlier sales surge in October and the emergence of Douyin as a competitive sales platform [4][10]. - The report notes that brands like Han Shu and Lin Qingxuan maintained stable GMV, while brands like Feicui continued to experience high growth [4][10]. Company Highlights - Mandi International has established a leading position in the minoxidil market, with a market share of approximately 57% in the hair loss treatment sector and 71% in the minoxidil product market as of 2024 [4][15]. - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a net profit increase from 2022 to the first half of 2025, indicating a robust business model [4][12][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product lines and high profitability in the medical beauty sector, such as Ai Meike, while also suggesting attention to companies like Langzi Co. and Ru Yi Chen [4][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the significant increase in market sentiment, with the North Exchange 50 index rising by 2.79% and trading volume increasing by 40.57% week-on-week. The proportion of strong stocks has rebounded from below 10% to 15.1% [10][13][24] - The report emphasizes the anticipated "market value allocation" policy, which is expected to alleviate the pressure of "frozen funds" and potentially boost low-volatility, low-valuation stocks. The necessity for this policy is increasing as the amount of frozen funds approaches one trillion [12][10] - The report suggests that the introduction of the North Exchange 50 ETF and the resumption of offline inquiries will have a more significant impact than the market value allocation itself. This is crucial for attracting technology companies and enhancing institutional investors' pricing power [12][10] Group 2 - The North Exchange saw 204 stocks rise and 79 fall, resulting in a rise-to-fall ratio of 2.58. The top gainers included Tianli Composite and Dapeng Industrial, while the biggest losers were Guangdao Tui and Hongxi Technology [34][36] - The average PE (TTM) for the North Exchange is reported at 84.41 times, with a median of 40.73 times, indicating a competitive valuation landscape compared to other exchanges [24][13] - The trading volume for the North Exchange reached 4.28 billion shares, with a total trading value of 97.53 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in market activity [24][13] Group 3 - This week, three new stocks, including Yuelong Technology, Yuanli Digital, and Meiya Technology, passed the review process, while no new stocks were listed on the North Exchange [26][30] - The report notes that the North Exchange currently has 286 companies listed for trading, indicating a stable growth in the number of listed entities [26][30] - The upcoming week is expected to see one stock available for subscription and two stocks scheduled for review, maintaining a steady flow of new investment opportunities [31][30] Group 4 - The report indicates that the new three-board market saw six new listings and eight delistings, with a total of 5,991 companies currently listed. The week’s financing activities included a planned fundraising of 0.84 billion yuan and completed financing of 1.31 billion yuan [44][46] - The report highlights that there were no companies planning to raise over 1 billion yuan this week, reflecting a cautious approach in the new three-board market [46][49]