Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the internet sector, particularly in AI applications and consumer engagement [3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the competition for consumer-facing AI interfaces, with significant developments from ByteDance and Alibaba. ByteDance's upcoming conference will focus on the performance and pricing of its Doubao model, while Alibaba has restructured its C-end business group to enhance its AI capabilities [3]. - The report recommends investing in Giant Network and 37 Interactive Entertainment due to their strong growth potential in the gaming sector, particularly targeting young female consumers [3]. - The advertising sector, particularly Focus Media, is noted for its ongoing mergers and high dividend support, with expectations of continued investment from internet companies [3]. Summary by Sections AI Competition - ByteDance is focusing on the Doubao model's performance and pricing, with its AI mobile phone already integrated into various services. However, challenges remain regarding privacy and competition with super apps [3]. - Alibaba's new C-end business group aims to develop its Qianwen app into a super app and expand its AI assistant capabilities across multiple platforms [3]. Gaming Sector - Giant Network is expected to see significant growth with its upcoming game "Supernatural Action," while 37 Interactive Entertainment is entering a profit recovery phase with a projected net profit of 3.21 billion yuan for 2025 [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential of the young female gaming market and the undervaluation of companies with strong daily active user products [3]. Advertising Sector - Focus Media's merger with New Wave is progressing, expected to enhance its bargaining power within the industry. The company is also benefiting from increased investment in local life services and AI applications [3]. - The report notes that despite macroeconomic challenges, Focus Media has shown strong operational efficiency and profitability [3]. Valuation Overview - A detailed valuation table is provided, showcasing key companies in the gaming and entertainment sectors, including Tencent, Giant Network, and 37 Interactive Entertainment, with projected revenue and profit growth rates [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable investment rating [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has led to a strong performance in metal prices, particularly in precious metals [5]. - It notes that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index has outperformed the broader market significantly in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 79.60% [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued price increases in precious metals due to low central bank gold reserves in China and a shift in monetary policy [5]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.84% during the week [4]. - The non-ferrous metals index fell by 0.47%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.39 percentage points [6]. - Precious metals saw a weekly increase of 1.50%, while aluminum prices dropped by 4.72% [12]. Price Changes and Industry Analysis - Industrial metals prices showed mixed results, with copper prices down by 0.83% and aluminum prices down by 4.72% [5]. - The report indicates that the demand for copper remains strong, with a current social inventory of 163,000 tons, reflecting a slight increase [34]. - The report suggests that the supply-demand dynamics for aluminum are tightening, with a forecast for long-term price increases [5]. Key Company Valuations - The report provides valuations for key companies in the industry, such as Zijin Mining, which has a projected PE ratio of 16 for 2025 [22]. - Other notable companies include Shandong Gold and Huayou Cobalt, with respective PE ratios of 24 and 20 for 2025 [22]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in state-owned enterprises within the steel sector, such as Hesteel and Shandong Steel [23].

Economic Overview - Since mid-2025, the U.S. economy has exhibited characteristics of "jobless growth" and a "K-shaped economy," with non-farm employment numbers declining to an average of 18,000 per month from June to August, significantly below the historical average of 109,000 during non-recession periods[1][15] - The GDP growth rate remains robust, supported by AI capital expenditures, despite the lack of job growth[1][21] K-shaped Economy Characteristics - The K-shaped economy is marked by a divergence in consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households experience significantly higher consumption growth compared to low-income households[1][26] - For instance, the spending growth difference in air travel and furniture between high and low-income families reached 10.5 and 10.2 percentage points, respectively, as of November 1[1][27] Causes of K-shaped Economy - The "jobless growth" phenomenon is attributed to structural imbalances in the economy, including the late-cycle economic phase, monetary easing, and the impacts of Trump's policies on immigration and tariffs[2][45] - Since the 1980s, the growth of real labor income has lagged behind productivity growth, indicating a long-term trend of increasing income and wealth inequality[2][66] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has transitioned from a tight supply to a surplus, with the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) dropping from a peak of 1.46 in January 2022 to 0.25 by August 2025, indicating a loosening labor market[2][51] - The unemployment rate for marginalized groups, such as low-education and minority populations, has risen significantly, while the unemployment rate for white individuals remains low[2][46] Future Economic Outlook - In 2026, the U.S. economy is expected to shift from "jobless growth" to "low employment growth," but the K-shaped characteristics may persist due to a weak labor market balance[3][81] - The equilibrium employment number has decreased to 30,000-80,000 jobs per month, suggesting that maintaining a low unemployment rate will not necessarily lead to a return to high employment growth[3][83]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-banking financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it is expected to outperform the overall market in the coming months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the central government's economic meetings have emphasized the need for structural reforms in the financial sector, aiming for a more efficient capital market and improved financial supply-side reforms [2][21]. - The insurance sector is expected to undergo a systematic revaluation, driven by the asset side's influence on company valuations, with a focus on sustainable business models and risk management [2][10]. - The brokerage sector is currently experiencing a mismatch between fundamentals and valuations, with potential catalysts including mergers and acquisitions and upcoming performance reports [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,580.95 with a slight decline of -0.08%, while the non-banking index rose by 0.81% to 1,991.97. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported respective changes of +0.31%, +2.36%, and -1.62% [5][6]. Non-Banking Industry Data - As of December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,247.40 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 14.23% from the previous month [15][44]. - The financing balance in the margin trading market reached 25,079.82 billion yuan, an increase of 34.5% compared to the end of 2024 [15][48]. Non-Banking Industry News - The central bank reported that in the first eleven months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale reached 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total [16]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is set to introduce new regulations on public fund sales to address long-standing issues in the industry [17]. Individual Stock Highlights - China Life Insurance reported total premiums exceeding 700 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025 [29]. - The brokerage sector saw significant stock performance, with Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities leading in gains [7][12].

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 头部非银机构监管红利有望释放 2025 年 12 月 14 日 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/12/8-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收涨 0.31%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.39pct。1）中央政治局会议： 2025/12/8，中央政治局会议召开，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。会议指出明年经济工作要坚持 "稳中求进、提质增效"（2025 年表述为"稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破，系统集 成、协同配合"）。就证 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to stabilize, with core cities likely to see a recovery sooner. Two major opportunities are identified: the rise of "good housing" policies and the strong performance of quality commercial enterprises during a monetary easing cycle [1][26]. - The report highlights a significant decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new home sales in 34 key cities dropping by 12.3% week-on-week and 32% year-on-year in December [2][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures from the Central Economic Work Conference aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including city-specific strategies for inventory reduction and supply optimization [26][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities totaled 242.3 million square meters, down 12.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 12.9% decline [2][5]. - Year-on-year, December sales in 34 cities decreased by 32%, with first and second-tier cities also down by 32% [5][6]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities increased by 0.2% week-on-week, with a current available area of 90.05 million square meters [19][20]. Policy and News Tracking - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 focused on stabilizing the real estate market through various measures, including encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [26][27]. - Qingdao introduced the first national "Good Housing" construction standard system, aiming to add at least 12,000 quality housing units by 2026 [29][30]. - New policies in Changsha regarding housing provident funds aim to ease home purchasing for families with two or more children and streamline processes for workers from other regions [29][30]. Company Dynamics - Major real estate companies reported significant declines in sales for November, with Poly Developments down 24.9% to 18.02 billion yuan and China Jinmao down 0.02% to 8 billion yuan [33][34]. - New City Holdings issued bonds worth 1.75 billion yuan with a 4% interest rate, while Yuexiu Property secured a 2 billion yuan loan [33][34]. - The report notes that the average price-to-earnings ratio for mainstream A/H listed real estate companies is projected at 21.2 for 2025 and 18.5 for 2026 [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on stabilizing investment and addressing government debt risks, with an emphasis on increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage [4][12]. - The construction sector has shown varied performance, with the SW Construction Decoration Index declining by 1.59%, underperforming against major indices [4][5]. - Key sectors such as infrastructure private enterprises and ecological landscaping have seen significant annual gains, with increases of 51.98% and 50.53% respectively [4][6]. Industry Performance Summary - The construction industry experienced a weekly decline of 1.59%, with the best-performing sub-industry being professional engineering, which increased by 0.73% [5][6]. - The top three companies in terms of weekly gains were 亚翔集成 (+25.20%), 汇绿生态 (+24.55%), and 海南发展 (+20.37%) [10][11]. - Year-to-date, the best-performing sub-industries included 基建民企 (+51.98%), 生态园林 (+50.53%), and 专业工程 (+46.64%) [6][10]. Key Company Developments - 重庆建工 won a joint bid for a project worth 1.714 billion yuan, representing 6.29% of its 2024 revenue [14]. - 文科股份 secured a contract for an environmental improvement project valued at 91 million yuan, accounting for 13.08% of its 2024 revenue [14]. - The report notes significant changes in company leadership and shareholder structures, impacting various firms within the industry [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and managing risks effectively, with policies tailored to local conditions [30][31]. - The report identifies two major opportunities: the rise of "good housing" policies and the potential for value reassessment in quality commercial real estate during a monetary easing cycle [3][30]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of December 6-12, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.423 million square meters, a decrease of 12.3% week-on-week [4][7]. - Year-on-year, December transactions in these cities are down 32%, with first and second-tier cities also experiencing a 32% decline [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.114 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week, and a year-on-year decline of 36.4% for December [12][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of December 6-12, 2025, 15 cities launched 980,000 square meters of new housing, with a transaction-to-launch ratio of 0.84 [22][23]. - The total available residential area in these cities reached 90.05 million square meters, reflecting a 0.2% increase week-on-week [22]. Policy and News Tracking - The central economic work conference outlined strategies for stabilizing the real estate market, including controlling inventory and encouraging the acquisition of existing housing for affordable housing projects [30][31]. - New policies in various cities, such as Qingdao's "good housing" standards and Beijing's expedited property registration processes, aim to enhance housing supply and streamline administrative procedures [30][33]. Company Dynamics - Sales data for November showed significant declines for many real estate companies, with Poly Developments reporting a 24.9% decrease in sales [36][38]. - Financing activities included new bond issuances and loans, with companies like Yuexiu Property securing a 2 billion RMB loan and New City Holdings issuing bonds worth 1.75 billion RMB [36][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction and decoration industry, indicating an "Overweight" investment rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights the need to stabilize investment and manage local government debt risks, as emphasized by the central government's recent economic work conference [4][12]. - It notes that the construction industry experienced a weekly decline of 1.59%, underperforming compared to major indices, with the best-performing sub-industry being professional engineering, which saw a slight increase of 0.73% [5][6]. - The report identifies key companies that are expected to benefit from new investment opportunities, particularly in emerging sectors aligned with national strategies [4][12]. Industry Performance Summary - The construction sector's weekly performance showed a decline of 1.59%, with the SW Construction Decoration Index underperforming against the Shanghai Composite Index [5][6]. - The best-performing sub-industries for the week included professional engineering (+0.73%), while the largest annual gainers were private infrastructure companies (+51.98%) and ecological landscaping (+50.53%) [4][6]. - Notable individual stock performances included Yaxiang Integration (+25.20%) and Hainan Development (+20.37%), while stocks like Jiaojian Co. (-30.30%) and Zhengping Co. (-22.61%) faced significant declines [10][11]. Key Company Developments - Chongqing Construction won a joint bid for a major engineering project valued at 1.714 billion yuan, representing 6.29% of its projected 2024 revenue [14]. - Wenkai Co. secured a contract for an environmental improvement project worth 91 million yuan, accounting for 13.08% of its expected 2024 revenue [14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued companies, suggesting that firms like China Railway and Shanghai Construction may see valuation recovery [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, specifically recommending China Power, China Shipbuilding, and China Ship Defense, while also highlighting Yangtze River and Songfa shares as potential investments [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates an improvement in new ship orders during November and December, reinforcing the logic of the replacement cycle. The strong second-hand ship prices are positively influencing the new ship market [4]. - The report notes that VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have exceeded expectations, with a current average of $114,420 per day, despite a slight week-on-week decline of 1%. The report anticipates significant upward potential for both charter rates and second-hand ship prices [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the railway freight volume and highway truck traffic, suggesting steady growth in these sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - VLCC freight rates have shown a 110% increase in Q4 compared to Q3, with one-year charter rates rising by 23%. The report highlights that the second-hand ship prices have yet to reflect these changes [4]. - The Suezmax crude oil tanker rates have decreased by 4% to $71,888 per day, while Aframax rates increased by 3% to $62,987 per day [4]. Air Transportation - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing chain and the ongoing trend of aging aircraft globally. It predicts a significant improvement in airline profitability as the industry approaches a turning point [4]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others, due to their strong demand and supply dynamics [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price stabilization leading to profit recovery, continued competitive pressure, and potential mergers and acquisitions [4]. - Companies to watch include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and ZTO Express, with a focus on their performance in the upcoming annual reports [4]. Road and Rail - The report cites data from the Ministry of Transport indicating that from December 1 to December 7, national railway freight volume was 80.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.35% week-on-week [4]. - The report suggests that the highway sector will benefit from two main investment themes throughout 2025: high dividend yields and potential value management catalysts [4].