Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company's main brand revenue performance in Q3 is stable, with children's and online sales showing growth. The overall channel revenue for the main brand increased by a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, consistent with Q2's performance. Online sales outperformed offline, maintaining double-digit growth, while children's products outperformed adult products. Running and outdoor categories achieved double-digit growth, and functional products accounted for over 60% of the brand's offerings, stabilizing the core business [5][8] - The company is actively optimizing its channel structure and accelerating its layout in outlet stores. The new store formats have already exceeded 70% of the total store count, with a focus on high-end outlet malls. The company plans to expand its outlet store count to 70-100 by 2026, aligning with positive market trends in outlet channels [8][8] - The company is progressing steadily in its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) transformation, planning to reclaim approximately 100 stores in Q4, with a total of 400 stores by the end of 2025. This move is expected to enhance long-term channel competitiveness [8] - The company is optimizing its multi-brand matrix by divesting from fashion sports brands and focusing on core running business, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position in the running segment [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company's revenue for FY2023 is projected at 143 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10.3 billion RMB, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.41 RMB [6][18] - For FY2024, revenue is expected to decline by 5% to 136 billion RMB, while net profit is projected to increase by 20% to 12.4 billion RMB. The EPS is anticipated to remain at 0.49 RMB [6][18] - The company forecasts a gradual increase in revenue and net profit from FY2025 to FY2027, with net profits expected to reach 16.0 billion RMB by FY2027, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9 [6][18]

业 及 产 业 建筑装饰 2025 年 10 月 19 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 (8621)23297818× tangmeng@swsresearch.com 推进新基建打造韧性城市，强调智能化布局 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20251013-20251017） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 - ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.67%，沪深 300 指 数-2.22%，相对收益为+0.55pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为装饰 幕墙（+3.44%）、钢结构（+2.32%）、设计咨询（+0.47%），对应行 业内三个公司：东易日盛（+26.23%）、精工钢构（+10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with significant month-on-month increases in new home sales across major cities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of favorable policies, including low mortgage rates and city-specific initiatives aimed at urban renewal, which are expected to stimulate market activity [3][32]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, particularly in commercial real estate and property management [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 2.604 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 166%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 170% increase [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 24%, with first and second-tier cities down 22% and third and fourth-tier cities down 43% [3][7][8]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current available area of 90.1 million square meters [3][23]. 2. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reported that the average mortgage rate for new loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down 25 basis points year-on-year [3][32]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources released 13 industry standards to guide urban renewal and the revitalization of underutilized spaces [3][32]. - Various cities have implemented tax incentives for rental housing enterprises and optimized public housing fund policies to support homebuyers [3][32]. 3. Company Performance - China Jinmao reported a 6% increase in sales volume to 3.675 million square meters and a 27.3% increase in sales revenue to 80.69 billion yuan for the first nine months [3][36]. - Other major developers like Poly Developments and China Vanke reported declines in sales volume and revenue, with Poly Developments seeing a 25.1% drop in sales volume [3][36]. - The report notes that several companies are actively engaging in financing activities, including issuing convertible bonds and providing loan guarantees [3][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping and aviation sectors, recommending specific companies such as China Shipbuilding and China Eastern Airlines, indicating a favorable investment environment [4][3]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a historical opportunity as three negative factors (policy, exchange rates, and ship prices) are reversing to positive influences. The Clarksons second-hand ship price index is steadily rising, and the current market value of Chinese shipbuilding is at a historical low, suggesting potential for recovery [4]. - The aviation sector is poised for significant improvement due to unprecedented constraints in aircraft supply and an aging global fleet. The report anticipates a golden era for airlines as passenger demand increases and operational efficiencies improve [4]. - The oil transportation market is showing signs of recovery, with VLCC rates increasing by 10% week-on-week, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - The report highlights a reversal of negative influences in the shipping sector, with the Clarksons second-hand ship price index breaking through previous highs. The current market value of Chinese shipbuilding is at a historical low, with potential for recovery to historical averages [4]. - Recommended stocks include China Shipbuilding, Sumec, and China Shipbuilding Defense, with a focus on bulk oil tanker stocks such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [4]. Aviation Sector - The report notes that the aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with supply constraints expected to persist for the next 5-10 years. Airlines are expected to benefit from increased passenger volumes and improved operational efficiencies, leading to significant profit growth [4]. - Recommended stocks in the aviation sector include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [4]. Oil Transportation - The report indicates that the oil tanker market is experiencing a resurgence, with VLCC rates increasing significantly. The demand for oil transportation is expected to strengthen, supported by seasonal demand and supply constraints [4]. - The report also notes that the market for smaller oil tankers is catching up, with rates for Suezmax and Aframax tankers rising sharply [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with expectations for price stabilization and profit recovery. The report outlines three potential scenarios for the industry, emphasizing the importance of monitoring quarterly performance [4]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express and YTO Express, with a focus on companies benefiting from e-commerce growth in Southeast Asia [4]. Rail and Road Transport - The report highlights the resilience of rail freight and highway truck traffic, with steady growth expected. The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts are worth attention [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, suggesting that the liquor sector is in a bottoming process while food companies should seek structural opportunities from the bottom up [6][8]. Core Views - The liquor industry is expected to experience a prolonged period of inventory digestion, with pressure on third-quarter reports anticipated to continue into the first quarter of 2026. The report emphasizes that stock price recovery may precede fundamental improvements [6][7]. - For consumer goods, the report highlights the potential for structural growth driven by new consumption trends, recommending companies with strong long-term competitive advantages [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 0.86%, while the liquor segment rose by 1.78%. The sector ranked third among 31 sub-industries [5][29]. - Key stocks that performed well included Kweichow Moutai and Qingdao Beer, while stocks like Jinzi Ham faced significant declines [5]. 2. Market Performance by Sector - The report indicates that the liquor sector is facing significant adjustment pressures, with high channel inventories and weak demand expected to persist into the next year. The report anticipates that the sales performance during the 2026 Spring Festival will be under pressure due to high base effects from 2025 [7][29]. - The consumer goods sector is viewed positively, particularly in dairy and beer, with recommendations for stocks like Yili and Yanjing Beer, while also noting potential competition in the snack and beverage segments [8][29]. 3. Key Company Updates - Moutai's bottle price is reported at 1750 RMB, down 15 RMB week-on-week, while Wuliangye's price remains stable at approximately 830 RMB. The report notes that the autumn sugar and wine fair had a subdued atmosphere, reflecting ongoing market challenges [7][19]. - The report highlights significant profit growth for companies like Chenguang Biotech, with a projected net profit increase of 344.05% to 401.55% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [9][10]. 4. Valuation Metrics - As of October 17, 2025, the food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is reported at 19.74x, with a premium rate of 24%. The liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 18.33x, with a premium rate of 15% [19][28]. 5. Sectoral Excess Returns - The food and beverage industry outperformed the Shenwan A index by 4.44 percentage points during the period from October 13 to October 17, 2025, with various sub-sectors showing different levels of performance [29][30].

Group 1 - The "high-cut low" style switch is currently unfolding, but there are differences in offense and defense. The market has shown that cyclical and value trends cannot lead the overall index higher, and the market continues its adjustment phase since early September. The key catalyst for cyclical trends has not yet arrived, and the trend of technology growth industries remains concentrated. A-shares will ultimately need to wait for technology to lead for effective breakthroughs [1][3][4] - Discussions about style switching in the fourth quarter have increased significantly. The current "high-cut low" market is defensive in nature, with intensified competition among offensive assets (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) within cyclical and value sectors, while defensive assets show absolute returns. The overall profit effect is declining, and technology rebounds show better profit effects [4][5][11] Group 2 - The overseas environment has become more stable. Recent credit risks in U.S. regional banks have created short-term disturbances in risk appetite. However, these risks are still considered isolated events, and the VIX index has peaked and started to decline. A potential turning point in overseas pressures may have passed [8] - The mid-term market judgment remains unchanged: before spring 2026, the catalytic effect of technology industries will significantly exceed that of cyclical industries. Although the long-term cost-effectiveness of technology is currently low, short-term cost-effectiveness issues have been sufficiently digested, allowing for the emergence of a new round of technology trends [8][9] Group 3 - Spring 2026 may represent a structural high point for the A-share market, but it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year or the current bull market. The conditions for a comprehensive bull market will become increasingly sufficient over time [11] - In the short term, cyclical products (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) are not performing well, with a preference for defensive and hedging assets (such as banks and food and beverage). The outlook for 2026 is better than for 2025, with opportunities still available in Q4 2025, particularly in areas like overseas computing power, advanced manufacturing represented by new energy, and national defense and military industries [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the EDA industry, emphasizing its essential role in the semiconductor supply chain and the ongoing trend of mergers and acquisitions [3][11]. Core Insights - The EDA industry is experiencing significant activity in mergers and acquisitions, driven by product innovation and the need for comprehensive tool integration across the semiconductor design and manufacturing processes [3][11]. - Key companies such as Huada Jiutian and Daotong Technology are highlighted for their advancements and market leadership in their respective fields [12][4]. - The report identifies several investment targets within the EDA sector, including Huada Jiutian, Gai Lun Electronics, and Guangli Micro, which are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth and consolidation trends [3][11]. Summary by Sections EDA Industry Highlights - Recent developments in the EDA sector include the launch of two new board-level EDA tools by Xinkailai, which significantly enhance design efficiency and have already achieved commercial validation [5][6]. - Huada Jiutian is set to unveil new products at an upcoming conference, reinforcing its competitive edge in providing a full-process EDA platform [6][7]. - The acquisition of a 16% stake in Sierxin by a private equity fund under China Electronics indicates ongoing consolidation efforts within the EDA industry [9][11]. Company Updates - Daotong Technology has surpassed Tesla in the U.S. L2 charging market for multi-family residences, capturing over 30% market share [12][13]. - Hehe Information's TextIn DocFlow is facilitating the automation of shipping documents for major logistics companies, enhancing operational efficiency [15][16]. - Tax Friend Co. has begun reporting tax-related information on e-commerce platforms, expanding its business opportunities in compliance services [20][22]. Investment Targets - The report lists several key investment targets across various sectors, including AIGC applications, digital economy leaders, and data-related companies, highlighting their potential for growth and innovation [23]. - Specific companies mentioned include Kingsoft Office, Hikvision, and Huada Jiutian, which are positioned as leaders in their respective fields [23].

Group 1 - The report indicates a style switch towards "high cut low," but with different offensive and defensive characteristics. The current market has shown that cyclical and value stocks cannot lead the overall index higher, and the market has continued its adjustment phase since early September. A breakthrough in A-shares is expected to ultimately rely on technology leadership [3][6][7] - Discussions about style switching in the fourth quarter have increased. The current "high cut low" market is defensive in nature, with a decline in overall profitability. The report emphasizes that the key catalytic moment for cyclical stocks has not yet arrived, while the trend in technology growth industries remains promising [6][7][11] - The report highlights three mid-term positive factors for technology growth: 1. Continued upward trend in overseas AI capital expenditure beta 2. Ongoing progress in domestic AI industry trends 3. 2025 is expected to be an upward turning point for the linkage between primary and secondary markets, with emerging industry highlights increasing over time [7][11][12] Group 2 - The overseas environment has become more stable, with recent credit risks in U.S. regional banks being categorized as individual events. The VIX index has peaked and started to decline, indicating that the most intense phase of overseas pressure may have passed [11][12] - The mid-term market judgment remains unchanged, with technology industry catalysts expected to significantly outpace cyclical catalysts before spring 2026. Although the long-term value of technology is currently low, short-term value issues have been sufficiently digested, allowing for a new round of technology market performance [11][12] - The report anticipates that spring 2026 may be a structural high point for the A-share market, facing challenges such as demand-side verification and potential delays in the supply-demand turning point. The report suggests that the improvement in supply-demand dynamics will not be "disproven" but may be "delayed" [12][15] Group 3 - The report suggests that after a short-term adjustment, there will still be technology-led market performance in Q4 2025. While spring 2026 may represent a phase high point, it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year or the current bull market [15][16] - The report emphasizes that cyclical products with offensive logic (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) are currently underperforming, while defensive and hedging assets (like banks and food and beverage) are favored. The outlook for 2026 is more promising than for 2025, with opportunities in sectors like advanced manufacturing represented by new energy and national defense [15][16][23] - The report highlights the importance of the anti-involution trend as a key structural factor in transitioning from a mid-term bull market to a full bull market, focusing on industries with high global market share such as photovoltaics and chemicals [16][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Under the disturbance of Sino - US tariffs, risk appetite declined, and the convertible bond market was significantly suppressed. The high - priced technology sector, which performed strongly in the early stage, had a large decline, while low - priced convertible bonds showed strong resilience. The net outflow trend of two convertible bond ETFs has eased. The median convertible bond price is still around 130 yuan, lacking cost - effectiveness. Short - duration may suppress convertible bond valuations, and external risks make the convertible bond structure fragile, with potential short - term correction risks. However, from a "slow - bull" perspective, corrections present opportunities, and attention should be paid to the opportunities of equity - biased convertible bonds with large pullbacks [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Outlook - Sino - US tariff disturbances led to a decline in risk appetite, suppressing the convertible bond market. The high - priced technology sector fell significantly, and low - priced convertible bonds were more resistant. The net outflow of two convertible bond ETFs slowed down. The median convertible bond price around 130 yuan lacks cost - effectiveness. Short - duration suppression on valuations is yet to be seen, and external risks make the structure fragile, with short - term correction risks. But corrections are opportunities for equity - biased convertible bonds [2][5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - Due to tariff disturbances, the convertible bond market retreated, and the 100 - yuan valuation dropped to around 35%. High - rated convertible bonds saw a larger decline in valuations. The overall market's 100 - yuan premium rate was 35.1%, down 0.6% week - on - week, at the 92.8% percentile since 2017. High - rated convertible bonds had weaker valuation performance and a larger decline than low - rated ones [6]. - Compared with last week, the conversion premium rate and bottom - support premium rate in each parity range decreased overall. The 60 - 70 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, and 120 - 130 yuan parity ranges had larger valuation declines, and the historical quantiles of the conversion premium rate in the 120 - 130 yuan and 130 - 140 yuan parity ranges were significantly low [4][10]. - The median convertible bond price was 129.73 yuan, down 2.64 yuan from last week, and the yield to maturity was - 5.81%, up 0.01%. They are at the 97.50 and 1.70 percentiles since 2017 respectively [4][12]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - Five convertible bonds, including New Tai Convertible Bond, Chenfeng Convertible Bond, etc., issued early redemption announcements this week. There are 22 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 14.7 billion yuan. Five convertible bonds announced non - redemption, and the forced redemption ratio this week was 50%. There are currently 34 convertible bonds in the redemption process, and 6 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week [4][15][18]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - One convertible bond announced a downward revision result, reaching the bottom. As of now, 112 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision range, 23 cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the trigger price without an announcement, and 33 are accumulating downward - revision days. No convertible bond has issued a downward - revision board plan but not held a general meeting of shareholders [21]. 3.3.3 Put Option - Taiping Convertible Bond issued a conditional put option announcement this week. As of now, 5 convertible bonds are accumulating put - option trigger days, including 1 that has triggered the downward - revision condition, 2 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 are in the non - downward - revision range [24]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 was issued this week. Jin 25 Convertible Bond, Yingliu Convertible Bond, Funeng Convertible Bond, and Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 have been issued but not listed. Yingliu Convertible Bond will be listed on October 22, 2025. As of now, there are 5 convertible bonds at the approval - registration stage with a to - be - issued scale of 5 billion yuan, and 6 at the listing - committee - approved stage with a to - be - issued scale of 4 billion yuan [4][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [37]. Core Insights - The report highlights recent trends in the domestic EDA (Electronic Design Automation) sector, focusing on mergers and acquisitions alongside product innovations. Key developments include the launch of new EDA tools by Xinkailai, upcoming product releases from Huada Jiutian, and significant equity transactions involving Sierxin and Hongxin Weina [4][5][12]. - The EDA industry is emphasized as essential within the semiconductor supply chain, with ongoing consolidation and optimization of competitive dynamics. The report suggests that full-process EDA platforms will hold significant competitive advantages [12]. - Notable company updates include Daotong Technology surpassing Tesla in the U.S. L2 charging market, Hehe Information automating shipping document processes, and Tax Friend expanding its business scope in tax information reporting [4][5][14]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Domestic EDA Trends - Recent highlights include the launch of two board-level EDA tools by Xinkailai, which significantly enhance design efficiency and have achieved commercial validation. These tools support collaborative work among multiple engineers, improving performance by 30% and reducing development cycles by 40% [6][7]. - Huada Jiutian is set to unveil new EDA products at an upcoming conference, reinforcing its comprehensive design capabilities across various electronic circuit types [8]. - The report notes the acquisition of a 16% stake in Sierxin by a private equity fund under China Electronics, indicating a trend towards resource integration within the EDA sector [10]. - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund is transferring a 38.74% stake in Hongxin Weina, with a valuation of approximately 34 billion yuan, highlighting the importance of layout and routing tools in digital IC design [11]. Section 2: Company Updates - Daotong Technology has achieved over 30% market share in the U.S. L2 charging market, leveraging AI capabilities in its products to enhance operational efficiency and user experience [14][15]. - Hehe Information's TextIn DocFlow is facilitating the automation of shipping documents for major logistics companies, addressing challenges in international logistics documentation [18][19]. - Tax Friend is adapting to new tax reporting regulations for e-commerce platforms, expanding its service offerings to assist businesses in compliance [23][25]. Section 3: Investment Targets - The report identifies several key investment targets across various sectors, including AIGC applications, digital economy leaders, and data-related companies, suggesting a diversified approach to investment opportunities [27].