Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the hydropower sector, particularly large hydropower projects, due to improved fundamentals and favorable weather conditions [2][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the autumn floods have positively impacted hydropower generation, with significant increases in water inflow expected in the coming days [2][6]. - The announcement from the National Development and Reform Commission regarding the regulation of price competition is expected to alleviate irrational competition in the electricity market [2][8]. - Global natural gas prices are experiencing fluctuations, with U.S. prices remaining low while European prices are rebounding due to geopolitical tensions and increased heating demand [12][21]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - The report notes that hydropower generation in the Yangtze River basin has reached historical highs due to concentrated rainfall, with a total generation of approximately 235.13 billion kWh in the first three quarters of 2025, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2][6]. - The announcement on regulating price competition aims to create a fair market environment, which is expected to reduce irrational pricing behaviors in the electricity sector [7][8]. - Recommendations include focusing on large hydropower companies such as Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power, as well as green energy firms like Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [11]. Natural Gas Sector - As of October 10, 2025, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices were $2.90/mmBtu, reflecting a weekly decrease of 9.03%, while European gas prices, such as the TTF, saw an increase of 5.26% to €32.63/MWh [12][14]. - The report indicates that the natural gas consumption in August 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with total consumption reaching 364.1 billion m³ [34]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on integrated natural gas companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, as well as gas trading firms [36]. Environmental Sector - The report suggests that companies with stable performance and high dividend yields, such as Zhongshan Public Utilities and Everbright Environment, should be monitored for potential investment opportunities [11]. - The ongoing development of carbon trading markets and environmental regulations is expected to enhance the performance of companies in the environmental sector [46].

Group 1: Dollar Performance and Trends - The dollar index rose to a high of 99.6 on October 9, marking the highest level since early August, following a strong appreciation since October 6[5] - The dollar's rebound can be divided into three phases, with the first phase seeing a rise from 96.6 to 98.6, an increase of 2.1%[14] - The second phase, from September 26 to October 3, saw a slight decline in the dollar index to 97.7 due to government shutdown concerns[17] - The third phase, from October 6 to October 9, was driven by political turmoil in Japan and France, leading to a spike in the dollar index to 99.6[18] Group 2: Factors Influencing Dollar Rebound - The rebound is viewed as a temporary phase within a longer-term depreciation trend, with four main reasons for potential difficulty in sustaining the rise[6] - The expectation of a prolonged government shutdown could lead to renewed downward pressure on the dollar, with a 67% probability of a shutdown lasting more than 15 days[21] - Recent political changes in Japan and France are seen as one-time events that are unlikely to alter the dollar's long-term trajectory significantly[25] - Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China may act as a new resistance to the dollar's rebound, potentially counteracting its recent gains[26] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with GDP growth for Q3 2025 projected at 3.8%, which diminishes the necessity for aggressive rate cuts[28] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower rates 2-4 times by the end of 2026, which is ahead of the Fed's own guidance[29] - The dollar's long-term depreciation hypothesis suggests that a stable dollar index below 95 or 90 requires new "game changers" such as significant fiscal tightening or unexpected monetary policy shifts in non-U.S. economies[34]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [30]. Core Insights - The construction materials industry is increasingly focused on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria, with a particular emphasis on green materials and carbon constraints. This report is part of a series aimed at developing an ESG evaluation system for state-owned enterprises in the construction materials sector [3][8]. - Recent policies have heightened the requirements for low-carbon, green, and environmentally responsible practices within the construction materials industry, leading to the establishment of industry standards and guidelines [3][9]. - The report outlines a comprehensive ESG evaluation framework that includes specific indicators tailored to the construction materials sector, emphasizing the importance of product quality and green materials [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. ESG Policies for Construction Materials State-Owned Enterprises - The construction materials industry is a critical component of the national economy, with increasing policy demands for low-carbon and green practices. Recent initiatives include the establishment of a certification framework for green materials and the promotion of sustainable development practices [9][10]. - Key policies include the introduction of green material product certifications and the promotion of carbon peak strategies, with significant milestones set for 2025 [9][10]. 2. Construction Materials ESG Evaluation System - The ESG evaluation system for state-owned enterprises in the construction materials sector incorporates additional indicators such as "green materials" and "product quality," reflecting the industry's substantial carbon emissions [13][23]. - The evaluation framework consists of five categories of positive indicators and one category of negative indicators, with a total of 18 primary indicators and 51 secondary indicators [13][23]. - Specific areas of focus include importance assessment, environmental impact, climate change response, social responsibility, and corporate governance, each with defined scoring metrics [13][23][24]. 3. Detailed Indicator Breakdown - **Importance Assessment**: This is a core component of the evaluation, emphasizing the assessment process for significant issues, with a total score of 9 points available [14][25]. - **Environmental Indicators**: These are aligned with green development principles, including a new indicator for "green materials," with a total score of 17 points [15][17]. - **Climate Change Response**: This section includes 4 primary indicators and 18 secondary indicators, with a total score of 18 points, focusing on climate governance and management [18][19]. - **Social Responsibility**: This includes a new indicator for "quality responsibility," with a total score of 22 points, reflecting the industry's commitment to product safety and quality [20][21]. - **Governance Indicators**: These emphasize the importance of governance mechanisms, with a total score of 34 points available [23][24]. 4. Conclusion - The report highlights the growing importance of ESG practices in the construction materials industry, driven by regulatory requirements and market expectations. The establishment of a robust ESG evaluation framework is expected to enhance the industry's sustainability and competitiveness [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the banking industry for the third quarter of 2025, anticipating steady performance and a return to value [1]. Core Insights - The report predicts that listed banks will show "slight revenue growth slowdown, with profits maintaining a positive growth trend," with a focus on stability. It estimates a 0.6% year-on-year revenue growth for the first nine months of 2025 and a 0.8% growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [2][3]. - The banking sector's profitability is supported by three core factors: stabilization of net interest income, recovery of non-interest income from low levels, and stable asset quality ensuring sustainable profits. Regulatory support for the health of bank balance sheets is also highlighted [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that while non-interest income may face pressure due to rising bond market rates, the overall impact on cumulative revenue is expected to be limited due to favorable year-on-year comparisons [2][3]. - The report suggests that banks can expect improvements in net interest income, driven by a significant decline in funding costs, which will help offset the downward pressure on asset pricing [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For the first nine months of 2025, state-owned banks are expected to see a revenue growth of 1.3%, while joint-stock banks may experience a revenue decline of 2.4%. In contrast, city commercial banks are projected to achieve a revenue growth of 5.8% and a net profit growth of 8.2% [2][4]. - The report provides detailed forecasts for various banks, indicating a mixed performance across the sector, with some banks like Agricultural Bank and Bank of Communications showing positive trends while others like Ping An Bank are expected to decline [4]. Non-Interest Income and Market Conditions - The report notes that while non-interest income may decline by 10-20% in the third quarter, cumulative figures for the year are expected to show positive growth due to a favorable comparison base [2][3]. - The report highlights that banks are likely to benefit from improved market sentiment and a recovery in fee income, which had previously faced downward pressure [2][3]. Credit Growth and Asset Quality - Credit growth is expected to stabilize, with a focus on corporate lending over retail, as banks prepare for future lending needs. The report indicates that as of August, the year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans was approximately 6.6% [2][3]. - The report anticipates that the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio will remain stable, with a projected NPL ratio of 1.22% for the third quarter of 2025, and a slight decrease in the provision coverage ratio to 238% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector's dividend yield has returned to an attractive range, with stable profit growth being a cornerstone for value recovery. It recommends focusing on leading banks and quality city commercial banks for investment opportunities [3].

Group 1: Key Insights on AMR Industry and Company - The report highlights that Jizhi Jia, established in 2015, has become the largest provider of warehousing fulfillment solutions in the AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) sector, with expectations for significant revenue growth driven by rising labor costs and increased supply chain efficiency demands in e-commerce and retail by 2025 [10][8]. - The AMR industry is anticipated to enter a supernormal profit window as the penetration rate approaches 10%, with projections indicating a global market size exceeding $162 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 31.3% from 2025 to 2029 [10][8]. - The report discusses three expected discrepancies: the revolution in warehousing automation, the integration of software and hardware solutions with a focus on AI algorithms, and the case studies of repeat purchases from major clients like UPS and S&S Activewear, indicating strong market demand and customer retention [10][8]. Group 2: Insights on Alibaba (BABA) - Alibaba's FY2Q26 forecast indicates continued acceleration in cloud revenue, driven by a strong market share of 35.8% and increased investments in AI, with expectations for cloud revenue growth to further accelerate [17][12]. - The report notes that Alibaba's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) is experiencing healthy growth, with a take rate increase contributing to high-quality revenue growth, supported by a 13.54% year-on-year increase in online retail sales in July and August 2025 [12][17]. - The "integrated e-commerce" strategy is showing rapid growth in instant retail orders, with daily order volumes surpassing 90 million, indicating a clear path to narrowing short-term losses in this segment [12][14].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential of the AMR (Autonomous Mobile Robot) industry, particularly for the company "极智嘉" (Geek+) as it is positioned to capitalize on rising labor costs and increasing supply chain efficiency demands in e-commerce and retail sectors by 2025 [10] - The report discusses three expected discrepancies in the AMR market, emphasizing the revolutionary impact of AMR on warehouse automation and the potential for excess returns as market penetration approaches critical thresholds [10] - The report also outlines the strategic focus of "阿里巴巴" (Alibaba) on enhancing its cloud services and AI investments, indicating a robust growth trajectory for its cloud revenue and a commitment to integrating AI across its platforms [12][17] Summary by Sections AMR Industry Analysis - "极智嘉" has established itself as the largest provider of warehouse fulfillment solutions globally since its inception in 2015, with a comprehensive and standardized solution set that includes various automation strategies [10] - The AMR market is projected to exceed USD 162 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 31.3% from 2025 to 2029, indicating a critical growth phase approaching in 2025 [10] - The report identifies three expected discrepancies: the revolutionary shift in logistics from "man to goods" to "goods to man," the potential for leading companies to dominate the market, and the emergence of excess return opportunities as market penetration increases [10] Alibaba's Growth Prospects - Alibaba's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) is experiencing healthy growth, driven by an increase in take rates, with online retail sales in China showing a year-on-year growth of 13.54% in July and 12.53% in August 2025 [12] - The company's "integrated e-commerce" strategy is yielding rapid growth in instant retail orders, with daily orders surpassing 90 million on weekends, indicating a clear path to reducing short-term losses [12][14] - Alibaba Cloud maintains a leading market share of 35.8% in the industry, with expectations for continued revenue acceleration driven by increased AI investments and infrastructure development [17] Shipping and Port Fees Impact - The Chinese government's announcement to impose special port fees on U.S. vessels starting October 14, 2025, is expected to create short-term disruptions in shipping costs, potentially leading to non-linear price increases [9][13] - The fee structure will escalate over the years, starting at RMB 400 per net ton in 2025 and increasing to RMB 1120 by 2028, which could significantly impact shipping operations and costs for U.S. vessels [13] - The report suggests that the limited number of U.S. flagged vessels and the potential for increased operational costs may create opportunities for Chinese shipbuilding and shipping companies [13]

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 12 日 美国关税冲击再起，关注黄金、稀 土等板块 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20251006-20251010 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37%，深证成指下跌 1.26%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，有色金属（申万） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies like Yanjiang Co., New Australia Co., and Shenzhou International, highlighting their advantages in global capacity layout and supply chain [4][15]. Core Views - The textile and apparel sector has shown stronger performance than the market, with the SW textile and apparel index increasing by 1.6% from October 9 to October 10, outperforming the SW All A index by 2.0 percentage points [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the significance of companies with established global production capabilities, which can mitigate tariff impacts and capitalize on favorable market conditions [10][11]. - The recent surge in Australian wool prices is expected to enhance the growth potential of New Australia Co., which is positioned to benefit from this trend [13][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market, with the SW textile manufacturing index rising by 3.0%, exceeding the SW All A index by 3.5 percentage points [4][5]. - Retail sales in the apparel and textile categories reached 940 billion yuan from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [26]. Trade and Tariff Impacts - The U.S. announced a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, increasing uncertainty in the trade environment [10]. - Companies with global production layouts are expected to gain a competitive edge by avoiding tariff costs and seizing market share in more favorable overseas markets [10][11]. Company-Specific Insights - Yanjiang Co. has established overseas production in Egypt, the U.S., and India, allowing it to effectively respond to global trade changes [11]. - New Australia Co. has successfully launched production capacity in Vietnam, which is expected to meet U.S. demand, benefiting from rising wool prices [13][14]. - Nike's FY26Q1 performance showed a revenue of $11.7 billion, a 1% year-on-year increase, indicating a gradual recovery despite challenges in the Greater China region [12][16]. Market Trends - The report notes that the domestic demand is recovering, with innovative retail formats emerging in the sportswear sector, which is expected to drive growth [12]. - The Australian wool auction prices have reached record highs, with a significant increase of 41.8% year-on-year, indicating a strong upward trend in the wool market [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [4]. Core Insights - The 2025 "Double 11" e-commerce promotion has entered a period of intensive launch, with the industry adopting a strategy of "extended duration + pre-event initiation" [7][10]. - Major platforms are simplifying promotional rules, moving towards "direct discounts and clear reductions" instead of complex rules, enhancing consumer experience and trust [10][11]. - Instant retail is becoming a focal point in the e-commerce competition for "Double 11," with platforms like Alibaba, JD, Meituan, and Pinduoduo expected to drive new growth [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views of the Week - The "Double 11" e-commerce promotion is characterized by extended periods and simplified gameplay, with platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin leading the way [7][10]. - Major platforms are implementing direct discount strategies, such as Taobao's "official discount" and JD's cancellation of pre-sale phases, to enhance shopping convenience [11][15]. 2. Market Performance Review - From October 6 to October 10, 2025, the retail index fell by 0.40%, ranking 20th among the primary industries, while the social service index dropped by 1.01%, ranking 24th [19][21]. 3. Company Announcements - Alibaba completed an exchange offer for approximately $2.65 billion of its outstanding senior notes, with a high acceptance rate [34]. - Baiguoyuan raised approximately HKD 327 million through a new H-share placement to pay trade payables and repay bank loans [34]. 4. Industry Events Review - Taobao and Tmall introduced new service standards for flash sales to improve delivery efficiency and user experience [38]. - JD has been recognized on Forbes' "Global Best Employers" list for nine consecutive years, emphasizing its commitment to employee welfare [38]. 5. Valuation of Key Companies - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the industry, but specific figures are not detailed in the provided content [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [6][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in titanium dioxide prices, with domestic prices rising by 300 CNY/ton and international prices by 40 USD/ton, marking the second price hike since August [6][12]. - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical sector indicates stable demand for crude oil, with global GDP growth projected at 2.8%, while geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, keeping oil prices low [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the potential recovery in profitability for titanium dioxide due to improved overseas real estate conditions and seasonal demand [6][12]. Industry Dynamics - Crude Oil: Non-OPEC production is expected to rise, with OPEC+ anticipated to increase output, leading to significant supply growth. Global crude oil demand is stabilizing despite some slowdown due to tariffs [6][7]. - Coal: Prices are expected to stabilize at a low level, with easing pressure on downstream sectors [6]. - Natural Gas: The U.S. is likely to accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [6]. Price Trends - The report notes that as of October 10, Brent crude oil prices decreased by 3.5% to 62.09 USD/barrel, while WTI prices fell by 4.2% to 58.17 USD/barrel [11]. - The PPI for all industrial products in August showed a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, with a narrowing decline compared to July, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [9]. Sector Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four key areas for investment: 1. Textile and Apparel Chain: Demand remains high, with supply-side production peaks passed, indicating a favorable supply-demand balance [6]. 2. Agricultural Chain: Continuous growth in planting areas supports stable fertilizer demand [6]. 3. Export Chain: Overseas inventory levels are at historical lows, with a strengthening expectation for demand in real estate [6]. 4. "Anti-Internal Competition" Policies: These policies are expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity [6]. Key Companies to Watch - The report recommends monitoring companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Yonghe Co., Dongyangguang, Dongyue Group, and Haohua Technology in the titanium dioxide sector [6].