证 券 研 究 报 告 弱美元下流动性修复，权益商品普涨 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251128-20251205) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.08 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周(20251128-20251205)本周美国ADP就业和PMI数据双双不及预期，其中美国11月PMI录得48.2，预期49，前值48.7，ADP新增就业减少3.2万人， 预期增加1万人。景气度数据的不及预期巩固了美联储年内降息预期，本周全球流动性有所修复，全球权益和商品均多数上涨。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.14%，本周上 升12BPs，美元指数下行0.46%，当前点位为99.0，弱美元交易持续；2）权益方面，本周A股指数除科创50指数外其余指数均收涨，创业板指领涨市场；全球市场中韩国综合股价 200领涨全球，巴西股市跌幅明显，总体上新兴市场好于发达市场；3）商品方面， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the innovative drug sector and recommends focusing on companies with strong performance in medical devices, CXO, and upstream sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a 0.7% decline in the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Bio Index, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4% during the same period [3][4]. - The new National Medical Insurance Drug List added 114 drugs, including 50 innovative drugs, with an overall success rate of 88%, significantly up from 76% in 2024 [3][13]. - The launch of the Chinese Drug Price Registration System allows companies to self-declare innovative drug prices, enhancing the global pricing strategy for these drugs [19][21]. - Recent clinical trial successes and milestone payments indicate a robust pipeline for several companies, including a $250 million milestone payment received by BaiLi Tianheng [26][29]. Market Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical Bio Index ranked 21st among 31 Shenwan first-level sub-industries, with a current overall valuation of 29.3 times earnings, placing it 10th among all first-level industries [3][4][6]. - Various sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with medical circulation and offline pharmacies seeing increases of 6.5% and 1.8%, respectively, while raw materials and chemical preparations declined by 2.5% and 0.9% [3][6]. Recent Key Events - The report notes the release of the first Commercial Health Insurance Innovative Drug Directory, which includes 19 drugs aimed at enhancing coverage for critical diseases and rare conditions [13][18]. - The FDA's drug review center director's resignation adds uncertainty to the regulatory environment, which may impact drug approvals and market dynamics [19][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring flu vaccine stocks and related pharmaceutical companies as flu activity rises [22]. Company Dynamics - BaiLi Tianheng received a significant milestone payment, indicating strong progress in its global drug development efforts [26]. - Junsheng Pharmaceutical announced positive results from a head-to-head clinical trial, showcasing the advantages of its new drug HTD1801 over existing treatments [29]. - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical appointed a new senior vice president from Eli Lilly, enhancing its research and development capabilities [30]. - Kelong Botai entered a strategic partnership to develop and commercialize new cancer therapies, indicating a focus on innovative treatment options [31]. IPO Dynamics - Lingke Pharmaceutical has initiated its IPO process in Hong Kong, focusing on innovative small molecule drugs for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases [34]. - Hansi Aitai's IPO application has passed the hearing process, indicating strong market interest in its dual-function antibody therapies [36].

今日重点推荐 | 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 3903 | 0.7 | -1.67 | 0.37 | | 深证综指 | 2469 | 1.24 | -1.16 | 0.61 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.81 | -0.84 | 18.64 | | 中盘指数 | 1.21 | -1.63 | 24.97 | | 小盘指数 | 1.23 | -1.45 | 20.17 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险Ⅱ | 5.78 | 5.97 | 13.66 | | 金属新材料 | 4.8 | -2.31 | 32.97 | | 航天装备Ⅱ | 3.62 | 13.13 | 43.78 | | 工业金属 | 3.42 | 9.72 | 71. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly highlighting the resilience of polyester filament in the off-season [3]. Core Insights - The demand for polyester filament has remained strong, with downstream textile operating rates reaching a high of 69.45% in early November and maintaining around 90% for polyester filament production [4][5]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament and downstream fabrics are relatively low, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [7][8]. - Profitability for polyester filament has improved significantly since September, with expectations for further profit increases in Q4 [9][10]. Summary by Sections Polyester Filament Sector - Polyester filament has entered a demand peak since September, with downstream textile operating rates consistently high, peaking at 69.45% [4][5]. - As of December 5, the operating rate for polyester filament was 90.15%, indicating strong production levels [4][5]. - Inventory levels for polyester filament (POY/FDY/DTY) are at 16.3/21.2/24.3 days, remaining low compared to the annual average [7][8]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $63.75 per barrel, reflecting a 0.87% rise from the previous week [18]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. increased to 549, indicating a slight uptick in drilling activity [29]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore decreased to $19.06 per barrel, down by $0.57 from the previous week [54]. - Domestic refining margins are expected to improve as oil prices stabilize [51]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester filament sector, such as Tongkun Co., and bottle-grade PET producers like Wankai New Materials [12]. - It also suggests monitoring large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in cost structures [12]. - For upstream exploration and production, companies like CNOOC and offshore oil service firms are highlighted for their potential performance improvements [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the cosmetics and medical beauty industry, despite recent underperformance compared to the market [4][5]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector has shown weaker performance, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index declining by 2.0% from November 28 to December 5, 2025, underperforming the market [4][5]. - Douyin's performance in November met expectations, with domestic brands preparing actively for the upcoming Double 12 sales event, indicating a strong competitive landscape for domestic products [4][10]. - The report highlights the leading market share of Minoxidil products, particularly from Mandi International, which has established itself as a top brand in the hair growth sector [11][12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index fell by 2.2%, while the Shenwan Personal Care Index also dropped by 2.0%, both underperforming against the Shenwan A Index [4][5]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Juzhibio (+5.9%) and Hongmian Co. (+3.5%), while the worst performers were Kelao Co. (-7.6%) and Baiya Co. (-4.8%) [6]. Key Market Developments - Mandi International has dominated the Minoxidil market, achieving a revenue growth from 982 million yuan in 2022 to approximately 1.455 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 21.7% [12][13]. - The company has maintained a leading position in the market for ten consecutive years, with a market share of about 57% in the hair loss treatment sector and 71% in the Minoxidil product market as of 2024 [12][14]. E-commerce Insights - In November 2025, Douyin's domestic brand GMV showed significant growth, with brands like Han Shu and New Page experiencing double-digit increases [15][18]. - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in October 2025 grew by 9.6%, driven by the Double 11 shopping festival, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [18][20]. Company Announcements - Lin Qingxuan updated its IPO prospectus for the Hong Kong market, reporting a revenue of 1.052 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.3% [22][19]. - The company plans to expand its research and development team and explore international markets in Southeast Asia [22][19]. Market Trends - The Chinese consumer healthcare market is projected to grow from 9.313 billion yuan in 2018 to 16.420 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.9% [13]. - The report emphasizes the increasing market share of domestic brands in the skincare sector, with a notable rise in the competitive landscape against international brands [24].

2025 年 12 月 07 日 市场情绪得分继续回落，多项指标 维持震荡 ——量化择时周报 20251207 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 量 化 策 略 ⚫ 市场情绪得分周内继续回落：截至 12 月 5 日，市场情绪指标数值为 2.4，较上周五的 3.15 大幅降低，情绪得分保持快速下降，从情绪角度来看观点偏空。从所有分项指标分数之和 的变化来看，本周情绪指数综合得分周内波动下降。 ⚫ 情绪指标维持震荡分化：本周价量一致性再度回落，市场价量匹配程度下降，资金关注度 与标的涨幅相关性同步走弱，情绪端出现一定降温；科创 50 相对全 A 成交占比继 ...

A 股估值及行业中观景气跟 2025 年 12 月 07 日 行业比较周跟踪（20251129-20251205） 本期投资提示: 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 一、Ａ 股本周估值（截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日) ● 1) 指数及板块估值比较: 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 21.1 倍，PB 为 1.8 倍，处于历史 77%和 39%分位; √ √ 上证 50 PE 为 11.9 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 63%和 42%分位; ...

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 index increased by 1.49%, indicating a market that is oscillating above the annual line, with trading volume increasing by 4.23% [7][17]. - The North Exchange market has shown increased activity in sectors such as satellite internet, edge AI, and humanoid robots, with notable stocks including Star Map Control, Haoshen Electronics, and Sanxie Electric [7][8]. - Eight North Exchange thematic public funds are entering their second open period, with a total estimated scale of 4.58 billion yuan, and there is speculation about a potential market rebound after December 20 [8][10]. Group 2 - This week, one new stock, Jingchuang Electric, was listed on the North Exchange, with a first-day price increase of 330.74% and a turnover rate of 93.84% [28][29]. - The North Exchange had 109 stocks rise and 173 stocks fall, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.63, with Haoshen Electronics and Youji Co. leading the gains [35][39]. - The average PE ratio for the North Exchange is 81.73 times, with a median of 39.47 times, while the trading volume reached 3.069 billion shares, reflecting a 1.09% increase [21][22]. Group 3 - The new third board saw six new listings and ten delistings this week, with planned financing of 49 million yuan and completed financing of 38 million yuan [46][48]. - The North Exchange's financing balance increased to 7.510 billion yuan, up by 0.38 billion yuan from the previous week [24][22]. - The thematic public funds have reported a weak performance in their heavy-weight stocks, with an average decline of 8.29% since the National Day [9][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.07) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.14) are similar to the current period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 11.22 years, shorter than the previous period's 15.41 years [2]. - The issuance of new special-purpose bonds has started using the 50 billion yuan remaining quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota by 7.02 billion yuan and 12.02 billion yuan respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 92.8% and 101.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 95.5% and 102.7% considering the next period's expected issuance [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in December 2025 is 157.2 billion yuan, including 49.5 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds. As of December 5, 2025, 16 regions have disclosed their planned issuance, with the same regions issuing 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan in the same period last year, and the whole country issuing 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, 740 million yuan of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, 110 million yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and 5.02 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued. The 2 trillion yuan quota for special-purpose bonds to replace hidden debts this year has been fully issued [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened comprehensively in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate increased compared to the previous period. As of December 5, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively, widening by 1.32BP and 1.80BP compared to November 28, 2025 [2]. - Currently, the spreads of 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds, especially the 15-year ones, have certain cost-effectiveness [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.07) was 108.717 billion yuan (102.54 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance in the next period (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.14) is 106.954 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 11.22 years, shorter than the previous period's 15.41 years [2][9]. - As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 92.8% and 101.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 95.5% and 102.7% considering the next period's expected issuance. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 91.2%/99.5% and 92.0%/99.5% respectively, and in 2023 was 95.0%/96.7% and 96.1%/97.9% respectively [2][18]. - In the current period, 740 million yuan of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, 110 million yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and 5.02 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds was 135.83 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 200 billion yuan, reaching 100% of the issuance progress, and the quota for this year has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 50 billion yuan remaining quota mentioned in the Ministry of Finance's press conference on October 17) was 27.06 billion yuan [2][20]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened comprehensively in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate increased compared to the previous period - As of December 5, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively, widening by 1.32BP and 1.80BP compared to November 28, 2025, and were at the 49.80% and 94.30% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][33]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.87%, up from the previous period's 0.69%. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Tianjin were better than the national average [2].

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...