1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Simplify issued a China Commodity ETF, which mainly invests in futures listed on Chinese commodity exchanges, using a quantitative long - short model for variety selection [1][4]. - In the past week, US equity products had an inflow of over $30 billion, while silver ETFs had an outflow of over $2 billion, and gold ETFs had a relatively stable inflow [1][8]. - Since the beginning of this year, in addition to the precious metals sector, US industrial ETFs have seen significant gains, especially aerospace and defense ETFs, with some products rising nearly 18% [1][10]. - In December 2025, the total non - money mutual funds in the US decreased by $0.09 trillion compared to November. From January 14th to 21st, the outflow of domestic equity funds narrowed, international equity products had an outflow, and bond products had an increased inflow [1][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 US ETF Innovation Products: Simplify Issues China Commodity ETF - Last week, there were 15 new ETFs issued in the US, including Simplify's China Commodity ETF, which invests in Chinese commodity exchange futures and uses a quantitative model for variety selection [1][4]. - First Eagle issued two active US equity ETFs, T. Rowe Price issued an innovation ETF, Harrison Street issued an infrastructure active ETF, and TrueShares issued a stock hedge ETF [5]. 3.2 US ETF Dynamics 3.2.1 US ETF Funds: Silver ETFs Lead Outflows - In the past week, US equity products had an inflow of over $30 billion, with significant inflows into Nasdaq ETFs and emerging market ETFs. Commodity and alternative products had a slight outflow after increased volatility, and silver ETFs had an outflow of over $2 billion [1][8]. - Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF's two - week inflow was close to zero, Nasdaq ETFs had the largest two - week inflow, and gold ETFs had a relatively stable inflow last week [9]. 3.2.2 US ETF Performance: Aerospace and Defense ETFs Show Significant Gains - Since the beginning of this year, in addition to the precious metals sector, US industrial ETFs have had significant gains. State Street's industrial ETF rose nearly 7%, and aerospace and defense ETFs generally rose over 10%, with Global X's product rising nearly 18% [10][11]. 3.3 Recent Capital Flows of US Ordinary Mutual Funds - In December 2025, the total non - money mutual funds in the US were $23.64 trillion, a decrease of $0.09 trillion from November. The S&P 500 declined by 0.05% in December, and the scale of domestic equity products decreased by 1.03% [14]. - From January 14th to 21st, the outflow of domestic equity funds further narrowed to $1.11 billion, international equity products had an outflow of $2.69 billion, and bond products had an inflow that expanded to $8.47 billion [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has reported a significant increase in net profit for FY26H1, with an expected growth of 216%-231% year-on-year, and a growth of 315%-337% when excluding perpetual bond interest [6] - The integration of pulp and paper production has shown significant benefits, contributing to improved profitability [6] - The company is expected to increase its chemical pulp production capacity to 743 million tons by FY27, enhancing its cost advantages [6] - The industry supply-demand dynamics are improving, with some paper prices rebounding, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's profitability [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: 59.496 billion RMB - FY2025: 63.241 billion RMB - FY2026E: 73.954 billion RMB - FY2027E: 80.367 billion RMB - FY2028E: 85.478 billion RMB - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 3.789 billion RMB for FY2026, 4.671 billion RMB for FY2027, and 5.702 billion RMB for FY2028 [5][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 1.00 RMB for FY2026 and 1.22 RMB for FY2028 [5] Industry Context - The company operates in the light manufacturing sector, specifically in the paper industry, which is experiencing a recovery in demand and pricing [6] - The report highlights that the company has a significant production capacity exceeding 20 million tons, which provides substantial economies of scale [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in its instant delivery segment, driven by increasing demand and strategic positioning within the market [3][4] - The company has reported a strong performance forecast for 2025, with net profit expected to be no less than RMB 238 million, representing an 80% increase from 2024 [3][4] - The report highlights the company's independent third-party platform as a key differentiator, enabling it to capture market opportunities and enhance customer relationships with major brands [3][4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 12.4 billion - 2024: RMB 15.746 billion - 2025E: RMB 22.051 billion - 2026E: RMB 30.202 billion - 2027E: RMB 39.568 billion - Year-on-year revenue growth rates are projected at: - 2023: 20.80% - 2024: 26.98% - 2025E: 40.04% - 2026E: 36.96% - 2027E: 31.01% [3][7] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: RMB 51 million - 2024: RMB 132 million - 2025E: RMB 238 million - 2026E: RMB 452 million - 2027E: RMB 755 million - Year-on-year net profit growth rates are projected at: - 2023: -117.63% - 2024: 161.81% - 2025E: 80.03% - 2026E: 89.46% - 2027E: 67.04% [3][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from RMB 0.06 in 2023 to RMB 0.82 in 2027 [3][7] - The report notes a decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 48x in 2025E to 15x in 2027E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3][4]

2026 年 02 月 03 日 Simplify 发行中国商品 ETF，白银 ETF 流出靠前 ——海外创新产品周报 20260202 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 ETP 研 究 - ⚫ 美国 ETF 创新产品：Simplify 发行中国商品 ETF。上周美国共 15 只新发产品，Simplify 发行中国商品 ETF，主要投资于在中国商品交易所上市的期货品种，产品主要通过 Altis Partners 基于估值、动量的量化多空模型进行品种选择，覆盖能源、谷物、工业投入品、 金属等品种。 ⚫ 美国 ETF 资金流向：白银 ETF 流出靠前。过去一周 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has reported a significant increase in net profit for FY26H1, with an expected range of RMB 2.15-2.25 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 216%-231%. After excluding perpetual bond interest of RMB 201 million, the attributable net profit is expected to be RMB 1.95-2.05 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [8] - The integration of pulp and paper operations has shown significant effects, contributing to improved profitability. The company has a total of 5.43 million tons of pulp capacity, with plans to increase this to 7.43 million tons by FY27 [8] - The industry supply-demand dynamics are improving, with some paper prices rebounding, which is expected to contribute to profit elasticity [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - FY2024: RMB 59.496 billion (5% growth) - FY2025: RMB 63.241 billion (6% growth) - FY2026E: RMB 73.954 billion (17% growth) - FY2027E: RMB 80.367 billion (9% growth) - FY2028E: RMB 85.478 billion (6% growth) [7] - Attributable net profit forecasts are: - FY2024: RMB 751 million - FY2025: RMB 1.767 billion - FY2026E: RMB 3.789 billion - FY2027E: RMB 4.671 billion - FY2028E: RMB 5.702 billion [7] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - FY2024: RMB 0.16 - FY2025: RMB 0.38 - FY2026E: RMB 0.81 - FY2027E: RMB 1.00 - FY2028E: RMB 1.22 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in its revenue and net profit, with a projected revenue of RMB 22.05 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.04% [2] - The demand for instant retail is rapidly increasing, and the company is well-positioned to capture this growth, especially with the strategic focus of major players like Alibaba on instant retail [5] - The company's independent third-party platform is a key differentiator, allowing it to serve a diverse range of clients and enhance its logistics capabilities [5] - The profit forecast has been adjusted downwards due to short-term impacts from new rider recruitment and share payments, but long-term growth prospects remain strong [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 12.4 billion - 2024: RMB 15.746 billion - 2025E: RMB 22.051 billion - 2026E: RMB 30.202 billion - 2027E: RMB 39.568 billion - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to be: - 2023: RMB 51 million - 2024: RMB 132 million - 2025E: RMB 238 million - 2026E: RMB 452 million - 2027E: RMB 755 million - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from RMB 0.06 in 2023 to RMB 0.82 in 2027 [2][6]

Market Overview - The report highlights significant fluctuations in global assets following the hawkish nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, leading to a strong market reaction [2][8] - The short-term market may be overpricing the Fed's hawkish shift, with expectations of interest rate cuts likely preceding any balance sheet reduction [8] Economic Policy Insights - The report suggests that the Fed's ability to successfully reduce its balance sheet will depend on structural changes in fiscal policy and the real economy, rather than solely on the Fed's intentions [8] - It emphasizes that the core issue remains how inflation will be managed, potentially through fiscal discipline or production reforms [8] Stock Market Implications - The report anticipates increased volatility in the U.S. stock market, with a shift towards a more balanced investment style [8] - Key variables affecting the stock market include earnings validation and inflation trends, with a focus on the performance of the S&P 500 [8] Commodity Market Analysis - The report maintains that the bullish logic for gold, silver, and commodities remains intact, despite short-term volatility [8] - It notes that the speculative sell-off in precious metals was triggered by geopolitical signals and the Warsh nomination, impacting industrial metals as well [8] Sector Performance - The report identifies sectors such as electric grid equipment and liquor as outperformers in the recent market, while precious metals and industrial metals have seen significant declines [1][8] - It highlights the resilience of supply-demand dynamics in non-ferrous metals, despite recent liquidity shocks [8]

《关注业绩支撑的白马反弹，科技与通胀 共振——2026/1/19-2026/1/25 汽车周 报》 2026/01/27 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 2026 年 02 月 02 日 重点公司 Q4 业绩强兑现，特斯拉 再次强调 AI 转型 看好 ——2026/1/26-2026/2/1 汽车周报 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 汽车 ⚫ 观点：①特斯拉业绩会强调 AI 应用方向转型（机器人、智能驾驶、Robotaxi 等）， optimus V3 市场预期持续强化，关注机器人产业链估值弹性，恒勃、银轮、隆盛、拓 普、三花等。②部分重点公司业绩预告符合预期，继续建议关注有业绩支撑的白马机 会，尤其是在权重指数中的企业，包括宇通客 ...

房地产 2026 年 02 月 02 日 恒隆地产 (00101) ——零售快速改善，核心利润稳增、分红表现稳定 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 02 月 02 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.24 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9080.19 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 9.76/5.58 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 467.23 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 5,056.65 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8925 | 上 市 公 司 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -4% 46% 96% 02/03 03/03 04/03 05/03 06/03 07/03 08/03 09/03 10/03 11/03 12/03 01/03 HSCEI 恒隆地产 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 - 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 A023 ...

2026 年 02 月 02 日 春季后续仍是有机会的震荡市 ——申万宏源策略市场点评 20260202 相关研究 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 张知来 A0230125070002 zhangzl@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 A 股 策 略 - 证券分析师 ⚫ 春季前期高点的波段定位：1) 小波段维度，前期高点，赚钱效应扩散已趋于充分。部分 热门结构和 A 股本身平均持仓时间创历史新低，过度交易特征客观存在，市场内在稳定 性本就松动。2) 中波段维度，开门红行情本质还是 2025 年结构性行情的拓展和延伸， 仍处于第一阶段上涨行情高位区域。历史规律是，市场可以抢跑产业趋势，演 ...