Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking industry, indicating that high-quality city commercial banks may exceed expectations [1]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that listed banks will exhibit "stable revenue and gradually improving profit growth" characteristics in 2025, with a projected revenue growth of 0.9% year-on-year and a recovery in net profit growth to 1.9% [3]. - Performance differentiation among various types of banks is expected, with city commercial banks showing superior results, while state-owned banks and leading joint-stock banks maintain stable positive growth [3]. - Key drivers for stable profit growth include narrowing interest margin declines, improved market sentiment, and stable asset quality ensuring credit costs do not significantly erode profits [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Listed banks are expected to see a revenue growth of 0.9% in 2025, with net profit growth recovering to 1.9% [3]. - State-owned banks are projected to have a revenue growth of 1.5%, while joint-stock banks are expected to see a revenue decline of 1.8% [3]. - City commercial banks in regions like Jiangsu and Zhejiang are anticipated to maintain high single-digit profit growth, with some banks achieving double-digit growth [3]. Non-Interest Income and Market Conditions - Non-interest income is influenced by market conditions and the timing of revenue recognition by banks, with a projected recovery in 2025 due to a low base from 2024 [3]. - The report notes that banks are likely to see a 3% year-on-year growth in non-interest income in the first half of 2025 and 4.6% by the end of the third quarter [3]. Interest Income and Credit Growth - Interest income is expected to stabilize as banks manage their asset pricing and liability costs effectively, with a projected decline in interest margin narrowing to about 10 basis points [4]. - Credit growth is anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on corporate lending, while retail lending shows weaker performance [3]. Asset Quality and Provisioning - The report indicates that the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for listed banks is expected to remain stable at around 1.22% [4]. - The provisioning coverage ratio is projected to decrease slightly to 236%, with banks advised to focus on those with low NPL generation and high provisioning ratios [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality banks that are likely to recover towards a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1, particularly city commercial banks with strong credit growth [4]. - It highlights the potential for dividend yields to attract investors, with a current dynamic dividend yield of approximately 4.8% [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights the establishment of two structural monetary policy tools by the central bank to support the stable development of the capital market, with a total combined quota of 800 billion yuan, which is expected to reshape the A-share ecosystem [4][8] - In January, the total amount applied for stock repurchase and increase loans decreased by 11% month-on-month, primarily due to an 86% decline in the amount applied for increases [9][8] - The A-share repurchase situation in January showed a significant decline, with the total repurchase amount at approximately 14.93 billion yuan, down 33% from December, and the number of repurchase plans also decreased by 42% [11][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that in January, the total amount of repurchases and increases in the A-share market was approximately 149.3 billion yuan, with 77% of the funds being self-owned or raised funds [11][20] - The report identifies three companies with the largest proposed repurchase amounts: Jinkai New Energy (5-6 billion yuan), Century Huatong (3-6 billion yuan), and Jintian Co., Ltd. (2-4 billion yuan) [11][20] - In January, the Hong Kong stock market saw a repurchase amount of approximately 12.83 billion Hong Kong dollars, a decrease of 41% from December, with Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, and Sunny Optical Technology being the top three companies by repurchase amount [26][20] Group 3 - The report lists companies that have announced new repurchase and increase plans in January, providing insights into their fundamentals, current valuations, and the proportion of repurchase/increase amounts [31][32] - It also tracks new dividend commitments from listed companies, with a notable commitment from Yanghe Brewery to distribute no less than 100% of the net profit attributable to shareholders as cash dividends for the years 2025-2027 [34][33]

Group 1: Market Overview - The current macroeconomic environment features strong expectations but weak realities, with market implied economic growth expectations potentially exceeding the past three years, while actual economic performance remains weak [2][11] - The basic perspective indicates a weak real economy, compounded by February typically being a production off-season [11] - Recent allocation trends show that 10-year bonds outperform 30-year bonds, government bonds outperform policy bank bonds, and credit bonds outperform interest rate bonds [11] Group 2: Bond Market Strategy - In February, the overall environment is favorable for the bond market due to a policy and economic data vacuum, production off-season, and strong initial allocation forces, although the weak asset structure of bonds has not reversed [11] - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to range between 1.75% and 1.9%, indicating a limited duration trading environment [11] - For the medium to long term, it is recommended to "take profits on rallies" for interest rate bonds and "increase allocation on dips" for credit bonds [11] Group 3: Credit Bond Market Insights - The credit bond carry trade strategy remains robust, but the safety cushion is shrinking, especially at the short end [9][15] - The overall credit spread is at a relatively low level, with some varieties still having room for improvement [12][15] - The demand for credit bonds is supported by the need for stable returns, with a focus on mid to short-term coupon assets [15] Group 4: Company Analysis - UGREEN Technology - UGREEN Technology is a rapidly expanding player in the global consumer electronics sector, with significant growth in revenue and profit, achieving a revenue of 6.364 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.8% [16][19] - The charging category remains the largest segment, with a revenue of 1.427 billion yuan in H1 2025, growing by 44% due to increased consumer demand and regulatory changes [16][17] - The NAS product line is emerging as a second growth curve for UGREEN, with a market share exceeding 40% in the domestic online market for NAS sales [17][19] Group 5: Financial Projections for UGREEN - UGREEN is projected to achieve revenues of 9.121 billion, 12.109 billion, and 15.798 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.687 billion, 0.915 billion, and 1.233 billion yuan [19] - The company is rated "Buy" based on strong growth potential, with a current market valuation indicating a 21% upside [19]

证 券 研 究 报 告 经济非典型修复下的配置行情 ——2026年2月债券投资策略展望 证券分析师： 黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 王哲一 A0230525100003 2026.2.4 主要内容 风险提示：宏观调控力度超预期、金融监管超预期、市场风险偏好超预期、海外环境变化超预期 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 当前宏观环境特征：强预期与弱现实并存。 ◼ 从大类资产表现来看，当前市场隐含的经济增长预期可能超过过去三年。 ◼ 但从实际经济运行的量、价维度来看，基本面依然处在偏弱状态。 • PMI新订单再度大幅回落，表明有效需求不足对经济的制约仍是主要矛盾。 • 物价表现来看，CPI同比回升主要受其他用品和服务（黄金涨价）、食品烟酒（猪价企稳）的支撑，但房租、衣着、服务消费的价格 依然不强。 ◼ 基本面视角：实体经济偏弱，叠加2月往往是生产淡季。 ◼ 近期配置行情的特点：10年好于30年、国债好于国开、信用优于利率。 ◼ 中期层面需要注意的债市压力（3月两会后，尤其2季度以后）。 • 基本面改善的可能性，重点关注物价改善对名义GDP的支撑 ...

Financing & Review - In January 2026, the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) issued 5 new stocks, raising a total of 1.779 billion yuan[5] - The average review cycle for companies was 251 days, with 10 companies passing the review, a decrease of 3 from the previous month[5] - As of January 2026, there are 24 companies that have passed the review but have not yet registered, aiming to raise 8.127 billion yuan[5] Subscription & Issuance - The median first-day price increase for the 5 new stocks listed in January was +186.93%, with individual increases of +367.92%, +204.40%, +186.93%, +178.00%, and +105.63%[3] - The cumulative subscription yield for new stocks in January 2026 was +0.42%, while the cumulative yield for 2025 was +3.31%[3] - The average maximum subscription amount for new stocks in January was 16.01 million yuan, with a median freezing fund range of 828.08 billion to 1,058.86 billion yuan[5] Market Trends & Predictions - The BSE is entering a phase of accelerated expansion, with a neutral expectation of 40 new stock issuances in 2026, potentially raising a total of 11.625 billion yuan[5] - The expected first-day price increase for directly priced new stocks is projected at 300%, with various scenarios considered[5] - The anticipated online subscription yield for maximum subscriptions is estimated at 366,100 yuan, with varying yields based on different investment amounts[5] Investment Analysis - Investors are encouraged to actively monitor new stock subscription opportunities on the BSE, as the increase in issuance volume is expected to offset concerns about reduced first-day premiums[5] - The report highlights the potential for significant returns from inquiry-based issuances, particularly for high-profile companies currently under review[5] - Risks include slower-than-expected issuance rates and potential changes in the BSE's new stock issuance system[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy indicates that technology and artificial intelligence are entering an accelerated implementation phase, and the implementation of AI applications in leading technology companies is evident, supporting their performance growth [4]. - The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index focuses on leading technology companies in the Hong Kong stock market, has a high - weight concentration, and has relatively excellent historical performance. It also has differences and advantages compared with other Hong Kong technology indexes [4]. - The Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF has increasing circulating shares and good on - site liquidity since its listing, and its fund managers have rich experience in managing ETF products [4]. 3. Summary According to Directory 3.1 Artificial Intelligence Accelerates Implementation, Supporting the Growth Momentum of Leading Technology Companies 3.1.1 Policy Points to Technology and Artificial Intelligence Entering an Accelerated Implementation Phase - On January 9, 2026, eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'". By 2027, China will promote the in - depth application of 3 - 5 general large - models in the manufacturing industry, form a large - scale application paradigm covering multiple industries, build 1000 high - level industrial intelligent agents, create 100 high - quality industrial data sets, and promote the implementation of 500 typical application scenarios [4][10]. 3.1.2 The Implementation of AI Applications in Leading Technology Companies is Evident, Supporting Performance Growth - Tencent Holdings: In the second quarter of 2025, AI - driven advertising technology upgrades significantly improved click - through rates and delivery efficiency, and marketing service revenue increased by about 20% year - on - year. The demand from enterprise customers for AI services has increased, and GPU leasing and API token usage have become new sources of revenue [13][14]. - Alibaba: In fiscal year 2025, the revenue growth rate of Alibaba Cloud's public cloud accelerated significantly, and the revenue of AI - related products has achieved triple - digit growth for seven consecutive quarters. The company clearly takes "AI + Cloud" as its core growth direction [14]. - Meituan: In 2025, it introduced AI technology and intelligent assistant tools in multiple scenarios, which helps optimize resource allocation and improve user and merchant experience [14]. - Xiaomi: By the end of 2024, the Xiaomi AIoT platform had connected 904 million devices (excluding smartphones and laptops), showing that AI has formed a real and continuous demand in the terminal [15]. 3.2 Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index: Fully Covers the Hong Kong Technology Field and has High Offensive Elasticity 3.2.1 The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index Focuses on Leading Technology Companies in the Hong Kong Stock Market - The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index selects 30 listed company securities with large market capitalizations in the technology - related fields that are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and eligible for the Stock Connect program as index samples. As of December 31, 2025, the sum of the weights of the top five constituent stocks was 60.45%, and the sum of the weights of the top ten constituent stocks was 79.53%. Leading enterprises such as Tencent Holdings, Alibaba - W, Xiaomi Group - W, and Meituan - W have a weight of more than 10% [4][20]. 3.2.2 Comparison of the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index with Other Hong Kong Technology Indexes - In terms of the main industries covered by the index, the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has a wider coverage. It includes the pharmaceutical industry compared with the Hang Seng Technology Index and adds hardware equipment, semiconductors, automobiles, and the pharmaceutical industry compared with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index. In terms of the single - weight limit, it increases the weights of heavy - weight stocks compared with the Hang Seng Technology Index, making the index more elastic [4][28]. 3.2.3 The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has Relatively Excellent Historical Performance - From 2019 to 2025, the annualized return of the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index was 12.98%, and the Sharpe ratio was 0.35, both significantly higher than those of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index. In annual return comparisons, it has greater elasticity in good market conditions and smaller decline amplitudes in poor market conditions [4][36]. 3.3 Analysis of the Investment Value of the Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF 3.3.1 The Circulating Shares have been Continuously Increasing Since Listing and the On - site Liquidity is Good - Since its listing on September 3, 2025, the circulating shares of the Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF have been increasing. As of January 27, 2026, the circulating shares increased to 3.059 billion, a 131.22% increase compared with the listing. Its on - site average daily turnover was 341 million yuan, and the highest daily turnover reached 792 million yuan [4][42][43]. 3.3.2 The Current Fund Managers' Managed ETF Products - The current fund managers of the Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF are Mr. Xu Meng and Ms. Wang Xinwei. Taking Mr. Xu Meng as an example, as of January 27, 2026, he is currently managing 10 ETF products with a total scale of 222.98 billion yuan [49].

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：黄伟平 A0230524110002 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 张晋源 A0230525040001 研究支持： 曹璇 A0230125070001 2026.2.4 主要内容 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 套息压舱，品种掘金 2026年2月信用债市场展望 ◼ 信用债套息策略仍然稳健，但安全垫在缩小尤其是短端 ✓ 26年以来资金利率仍在低位运行但近期波动加大，叠加信用债收益率快速下行，中高等级信用债（尤其是短端）虽仍有一定套息空间但安全垫在缩小。 ◼ 当前信用利差整体处于相对低位，关注部分品种和等级下沉的票息价值 去年年底以来信用利差持续下行，当前已压缩至历史相对低位，仅部分品种仍有空间。 ✓ 截至1月30日，3年期非公开产业债/城投债、AA级可续期产业债、AAA-级二级资本债、保险次级债的信用利差仍处于2024年以来30%左右或以上，5 年期非公开城投债、AA级可续期城投债和金融次级债品种的信用利差也处于历史相对高位。 ✓ 若剔除增值税影响，3年期非公开产业债/城投债处于近一两年以来的相对高位、距离历史低点的空间仍在10BP左右或以 ...

2026 年 02 月 04 日 《目前板块业绩仍然承压，但最困难时期 或将逐渐过去 -- 房地产行业 2025 年业 绩预告分析及前瞻》 2026/02/01 《首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，优质商业 地产迎来价值重估――首批商业不动产 REITs 上报点评》 2026/01/31 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 房地产融资政策进入友好期, REITs 和定增将 开辟股权融资渠道 -房地产行业融资事件点评 申万宏源研究微信服务 2）１月２7 日，保利发展公告拟以广州保利中心项目和佛山保利水城项目为底层资产，开 O 展商业不动产 REITs 申报发行工作；1 月 29 日至 30 日，上海证券交易所连续受理 8 单商 业不动产 REITs 申报; 2 月 3 日,深交所首单商业不动产 REITs 正式申报。 3）2 月 3 日，华发股份发布 2026 年度向特定对象 ...

行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 02 月 04 日 房地产融资政策进入友好期，REITs 和定增将 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 看好 ——房地产行业融资事件点评 《目前板块业绩仍然承压，但最困难时期 或将逐渐过去——房地产行业 2025 年业 绩预告分析及前瞻》 2026/02/01 《首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，优质商业 地产迎来价值重估——首批商业不动产 REITs 上报点评》 2026/01/31 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 房地产 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 事件： 点评： 开辟股权融资渠道 ⚫ 1）26 年 1 月 28 日，中房报报道，多家房地产企业已不再被监管部门要求每月上报"三 道红线"相关数据。 ⚫ 2）1 月 27 日，保利发展公告拟 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation of the "Tax Law Principle" and its implications for service industries such as internet and finance, indicating that current tax arrangements are unlikely to change significantly in the short term [2][3][12] - The real estate sector is experiencing a favorable shift in financing policies, with REITs and private placements opening new equity financing channels to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [3][13] Tax Law Implementation - The State Council approved the "Implementation Regulations of the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" on December 19, 2025, and subsequent announcements have clarified tax details, suggesting stability in tax arrangements for service industries [2][3][12] - The definition of "basic services" in telecommunications is evolving, with mobile data and internet broadband still classified as "value-added services" subject to a 6% VAT rate, while traditional voice services are recognized as "basic services" with a 9% VAT rate [2][3][12] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The financing environment for the real estate industry is improving, with a shift from debt financing to equity financing, including the introduction of REITs and private placements [3][13] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the gradual retreat from the "three red lines" policy, indicate a more supportive financing environment for real estate companies [13] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in the industry as financing policies become more favorable [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several quality real estate companies for investment, including China Jinmao, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others, due to their potential for recovery and attractive valuations [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving financing landscape and the impact of government policies on the real estate market [3][13]