上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 01 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 83.83 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 89.18/42.30 | | 市净率 | 6.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.85 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 65,657 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 4,117.95/14,205.89 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 12.89 | | 资产负债率% | 44.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 791/783 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 02-05 03-05 04-05 05-05 06-05 07-05 08-05 09-05 10-05 1 ...

Group 1 - The report presents the "Shenwan Hongyuan Top Ten Gold Stocks" for February 2026, reflecting the firm's market outlook and stock selection capabilities [1][10] - The previous gold stock combination from January 2026 achieved a return of 16.89%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 13.61 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 15.72 percentage points [7] - Since the inception of the gold stock initiative on March 28, 2017, the cumulative return has reached 486.47%, with the A-share combination up 361.41% and the Hong Kong stock combination up 1373.67% [7] Group 2 - The current market strategy indicates a continuation of the spring market trend, with a focus on cyclical sectors for alpha opportunities, while acknowledging increasing resistance to upward movement as profit effects spread [12] - Recommended sectors for investment include food and beverage, real estate, and cyclical sectors with both beta elasticity and alpha value [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying bottom assets and suggests a rotation in market focus as the trading environment stabilizes [12] Group 3 - The top ten gold stocks for this period include Guizhou Moutai, Hualu Hengsheng, and Dier Laser, with a focus on their growth potential and market strategies [15][16] - Guizhou Moutai is expected to benefit from market reforms and increased consumer access ahead of the Spring Festival, while Hualu Hengsheng is positioned to capitalize on favorable industry policies [15][16] - Dier Laser is noted for its strong competitive position in the photovoltaic sector and potential growth in non-photovoltaic businesses [15][16] Group 4 - The report includes detailed performance metrics for each stock, highlighting their market capitalization, price changes, and excess returns compared to benchmarks [13][18] - For instance, Guizhou Moutai has a market cap of 175.44 billion RMB and is projected to see a net profit growth of 5.0% in 2026 [18] - The report also provides valuation and profit forecasts for the recommended stocks, indicating strong growth prospects for several companies [18]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates that the "Top Ten Gold Stocks" from Shenwan Hongyuan for the period of January 1 to January 30, 2026, achieved a return of 16.89%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index by 13.61 and 15.72 percentage points respectively [8][19] - Since the first release of the gold stock list on March 28, 2017, the cumulative return of the gold stock portfolio has reached 486.47%, with the A-share portfolio up by 361.41% [8][19] - The strategy judgment for the upcoming month suggests a continuation of the spring market trend, with a focus on cyclical sectors for Alpha opportunities, while also indicating that upward resistance is increasing as the market transitions into a phase of sector rotation [8][16] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the main catalysts for February and seizing opportunities in style rotation, particularly in the food and beverage and real estate sectors [16] - In the cyclical sector, it is advised to continue monitoring quality targets that exhibit both Beta elasticity and Alpha value [16] - The report highlights the "Iron Triangle" stocks: Guizhou Moutai, Hualu Hengsheng, and Dier Laser as top picks, alongside other recommended stocks including Huayou Cobalt, Longsheng Technology, Foster, New City Holdings, Dingjie Smart, Alibaba-W (Hong Kong), and Tencent Holdings (Hong Kong) [8][19] Group 3: Stock Performance and Recommendations - The top ten gold stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Hualu Hengsheng, Dier Laser, Huayou Cobalt, Longsheng Technology, Foster, New City Holdings, Dingjie Smart, Alibaba-W (Hong Kong), and Tencent Holdings (Hong Kong) [19][20] - Guizhou Moutai is noted for its market reform and potential for exceeding sales expectations during the upcoming Spring Festival [20] - Hualu Hengsheng is expected to benefit from domestic chemical industry policies that enhance market structure, while Dier Laser is recognized for its strong competitiveness in the photovoltaic sector [20][22]

行 业 及 产 业 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 2026 年 01 月 30 日 海南自贸港启新篇，期待产业与金 融共生共荣 看好 ——从银行看百业，海南见闻之一 本期要点： 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 联系人 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 证 券 结论和投资分析意见 研 究 报 告 银行 - ⚫ "高标准开放"正式拉开序幕，自贸港迎发展新纪元。从 2018 年习总书记宣布"党中央决定支持 海南全岛建设自由贸易试验区，支持海南逐步探索、稳步推进中国特色自由贸易港建设"，到 2025 年 12 月 18 日正式封关，海南从对外开放的"先行者"正式 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the analysis suggests a positive outlook for participation in the upcoming stock issuance [22]. Core Insights - The company is a high-quality orthopedic consumables provider, established in 2015, with a focus on spinal, trauma, and sports medicine products. It ranks third in the domestic market for spinal vertebroplasty systems and sixth for spinal implant devices as of 2023 [3][7]. - The company has a competitive advantage in core technologies, with a total of 108 patents, including 41 invention patents, and has established a nationwide sales network [3][7]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 275 million yuan, with a slight decline over the past three years at a CAGR of -1.9%. However, non-collection products are expected to grow rapidly, potentially becoming a new growth driver [8][22]. - The company plans to use the raised funds primarily for expanding production capacity in orthopedic consumables, as well as for building a research and development center and marketing network [9][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company specializes in orthopedic consumables and aims to provide comprehensive solutions for orthopedic surgeries. It has a diverse product matrix and a strong focus on R&D and customer service [3][7]. 2. Issuance Plan - The new stock issuance will adopt a direct pricing method, with an issue price of 7.67 yuan per share. The initial issuance scale is 29.53 million shares, accounting for 25% of the total post-issue share capital, with an expected market capitalization of 906 million yuan [12][13]. 3. Industry Situation - The aging population is driving an increase in the incidence of orthopedic diseases. The proportion of the population aged 65 and above reached 15.64% in 2022, up 5.17% from 2015. This demographic shift is expected to increase the demand for orthopedic products [16][14]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix that covers various orthopedic clinical indications. It has established a robust sales network across all provinces in China, enhancing its market presence and customer relationships [17][3]. 5. Comparable Companies - The company’s financial metrics, including a projected gross margin of 58.05% for 2024, are competitive compared to peers in the industry. The average PE ratio of comparable companies is 60, while the company’s PE ratio is significantly lower at 11.65 [21][23]. 6. Subscription Analysis - The company is positioned as a leading player in the medical dressing market, with strong competitive advantages in various segments. The current production capacity is highly utilized, and the planned expansion is expected to unlock growth potential [22].

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 2026 年 01 月 30 日 相关研究 《航空"反内卷"初见成效——航空迎来 黄金时代系列报告》 2026/01/20 《景气度持续提升，从量变到质变—— 2025 下半年航空板块投资策略》 2025/06/12 《全球格局持续演变，静待我国航司迈入 成熟期——2025 航空及海外飞机制造链 年度策略》 2024/11/27 《航空出行渐入常态，再强调"国际+供 给"双主线——2024 航空机场中期策 略》 2024/06/14 《不同周期阶段的不同演绎，民航业东升 西降趋势确定-2024 航空机场投资展望》 2023/12/05 证券分析师 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [5]. Core Insights - The company, China Shipbuilding, has announced a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7-8.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 66%-99% [3][5]. - The company completed its merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation in September 2025, and the profit forecast aligns with previous quarterly reports, confirming expectations [3]. - The report highlights a positive trend in the shipbuilding industry, with rising demand for new ships and stable pricing, which is expected to drive future growth [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 78.584 billion yuan - 2025: 143.564 billion yuan (82.7% growth) - 2026: 173.576 billion yuan (20.9% growth) - 2027: 203.461 billion yuan (17.2% growth) [4][6] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: 3.614 billion yuan - 2025: 7.710 billion yuan (113.3% growth) - 2026: 17.711 billion yuan (129.7% growth) - 2027: 23.510 billion yuan (32.7% growth) [4][6] - The report also notes an increase in gross margin from 10.2% in 2024 to 21.1% by 2027, indicating improved profitability [4]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the upward trend in shipping rates, particularly for oil tankers, which is expected to positively influence the shipbuilding sector [5]. - The demand for container ships is projected to increase, with new orders expected to grow by 11% compared to 2024, driven by a focus on scale expansion among major shipping companies [5]. - The report mentions that the second-hand ship price index has been rising for 11 consecutive months, indicating a recovery in ship asset values, which could enhance the attractiveness of new ship orders [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for the company [5][11] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of USD 1.191 billion for 2QFY26, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.7%. The education business (including cultural tourism) generated USD 974 million, up 13% YoY, while other businesses (primarily EastBuy) saw revenue of USD 217 million, a 22.9% YoY increase [3][7] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 73 million, surging 68.6% YoY, with a Non-GAAP net margin of 6.1%, expanding by 2 percentage points YoY [3][7] - The overseas study business growth has bottomed out, with revenue from overseas test preparation and consulting at USD 252 million, a 1% YoY increase, indicating a slowdown of 29.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [8][11] - New business segments, including K9 non-academic subject tutoring and learning tablets, achieved a revenue growth of 21.6% YoY to USD 366 million, with the number of learning centers increasing to 1,379, up 21% YoY [4][9] - Operating margins are improving, with the Non-GAAP operating margin expanding by 4.7 percentage points YoY to 7.5% in 2QFY26, driven by margin improvements in new businesses [10][11] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been raised to USD 5.5 billion, USD 6.11 billion, and USD 6.89 billion, respectively, from previous estimates of USD 5.38 billion, USD 5.98 billion, and USD 6.73 billion [5][11] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been adjusted to USD 570 million, USD 629 million, and USD 700 million, respectively, up from previous forecasts of USD 555 million, USD 610 million, and USD 679 million [5][11] - The company is moderating its full-year learning center expansion pace to 10% to improve capacity utilization rates, indicating a strategic shift towards operational efficiency [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company, China Shipbuilding, has announced a profit forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7 to 8.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 66% to 99%. The profit forecast aligns with expectations, considering the calculation method used [4] - The company is set to complete its merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation by September 2025, which is factored into the profit calculations [4] - The report highlights an upward trend in the oil and bulk shipping market, with container ship demand being underestimated, indicating strong downstream demand for shipbuilding [6] - The second-hand ship price index has risen for 11 consecutive months, and new ship prices have stabilized, suggesting a potential recovery in the shipbuilding market [6] - The report notes that the company has a current order backlog valued at approximately 61.3 billion USD, with a price-to-order ratio of only 0.61, indicating significant upside potential if new ship prices continue to rise [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 143.564 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 82.7% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 7.71 billion yuan, reflecting a 113.3% increase compared to the previous year [5] - Earnings per share for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.02 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 34 [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 10.2% in 2024 to 15.6% in 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) [2][7] Core Insights - New Oriental's revenue for 2QFY26 reached USD 1.191 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.7%. The education business (including cultural tourism) generated USD 974 million, up 13% YoY, while other businesses (primarily EastBuy) saw revenue of USD 217 million, a 22.9% YoY increase. Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 73 million, surging 68.6% YoY, with a non-GAAP net margin of 6.1%, expanding by 2 percentage points YoY [5][9] - The overseas study business growth has bottomed out, with revenue from overseas test preparation and consulting at USD 252 million, a 1% YoY increase, indicating a slowdown of 29.3 percentage points compared to the previous year [10] - New business segments, including K9 non-academic tutoring and learning tablets, showed robust growth with a 21.6% YoY increase in revenue to USD 366 million. The number of learning centers increased to 1,379, up 21% YoY [11] - Operating margins are improving, with the non-GAAP operating margin expanding by 4.7 percentage points YoY to 7.5% in 2QFY26. The education business's non-GAAP operating margin was 6.6%, up 3.5 percentage points YoY [12] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY26-FY28 have been raised to USD 5.5 billion, USD 6.11 billion, and USD 6.89 billion, respectively. Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for the same period have also been increased to USD 570 million, USD 629 million, and USD 700 million [7][13] - The financial data for FY24 to FY28 indicates a steady growth trajectory, with revenue expected to grow from USD 4.314 billion in FY24 to USD 6.887 billion in FY28, and net profit increasing from USD 464 million to USD 700 million over the same period [16]