宏 观 研 究 国内政策展望 2025 年 12 月 02 日 2026 年：财政货币政策展望 —— 2026 年展望报告系列之二 政策回顾：财政货币政策协同支撑 2025 年经济增长 财政政策呈现力度加大、节奏前置、灵活性提升的突出特征，充分体现对经济的托底意图。2025 年财政融资规模创历史新高，政府债净融资达 14.36 万亿元，占 GDP 比例预计为 10.2%。2025 年前三季度广义财政支出同比增长 7.9%，支出力度为近年高位。支出节奏明显前置，配合四 季度灵活出台的增量政策，凸显财政对宏观经济支持的积极姿态。 货币政策重归"适度宽松"基调，注重预期引导与传导疏通，操作更趋精准审慎。2025 年央 行保持流动性合理充裕，资金利率整体处于较低水平；降息次数和幅度较 2024 年更为谨慎， 政策节奏前置，社融增速呈现"前高后稳"。同时，2025 年央行加强市场沟通，支持资本市 场稳定，并通过多种手段缓解银行息差压力，提升政策传导效率。 财政与货币协同持续深化，国债买卖操作与商业银行注资体现宏观治理体系不断完善。2025 年央行分阶段调整国债买卖操作，展现出灵活应对市场变化的调控艺术。财政则通过注资商 ...

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 12-02 01-02 02-02 03-02 04-02 05-02 06-02 07-02 08-02 09-02 10-02 11-02 贵州茅台 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 | | --- | | 买入（维持） | | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 01 日 | | --- | | 收盘价（元） 1,448.00 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 1,657.99/1,400.00 | | 市净率 7.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 3.56 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） 1,813,287 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,914.01/13,146.72 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 204.64 | | 资产负债率% | 12.81 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,252 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the premium and discount rates of bond ETFs, noting that most bond ETFs only exhibit a premium/discount rate due to the lack of IOPV disclosure [2][9] - The premium/discount rate is influenced by the liquidity of the underlying bonds and the product design, with a tendency for most products to trade at a discount [14][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of premium/discount rates in guiding secondary market trading decisions, suggesting that investors should focus on medium to long-term trading strategies rather than day trading [29][27] Group 2 - The report outlines the arbitrage mechanisms between primary and secondary markets for bond ETFs, highlighting that effective arbitrage requires significant price discrepancies and consideration of various practical factors [35][36] - It discusses the challenges of executing arbitrage due to minimum investment thresholds and the liquidity of the bond market, which can hinder the realization of arbitrage opportunities [35][41] - The report also mentions the impact of redemption methods on the premium/discount rates, with physical redemption products facing greater uncertainty and costs [25][23] Group 3 - The report provides a detailed analysis of the premium/discount rates across different categories of bond ETFs, indicating that municipal bonds and corporate bonds tend to have higher discount rates compared to government bonds [13][12] - It highlights the significance of selecting bond ETFs with stable premium/discount rates and lower deviations from net asset value to minimize investment risks [33][32] - The report includes a comparative analysis of various bond ETFs, focusing on their trading volumes, average premium/discount rates, and redemption methods [31][30]

Group 1: New IPO Trends - In November 2025, the A-share market issued 10 new stocks, raising a total of 20.5 billion yuan, a 34% increase month-on-month[7] - The average fundraising rate for newly issued stocks was 94%, with a total of 19.7 billion yuan raised from 6 inquiry-based new stocks, marking a 34% increase from the previous month[10] - The average number of products participating in the inquiry for profitable new stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached 8,150, a 32% increase from June, setting a new high for the year[21] Group 2: Market Performance - The average first-day closing price increase for new stocks in November was 208%, maintaining a "zero break" status since the beginning of the year[33] - The average first-day price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for new stocks was 36 times, with a 13% discount compared to comparable companies, indicating a narrowing valuation gap[11] - The average return for offline subscription products of 200 million yuan in the A1/A2/A3/B categories was 2.25%/2.20%/2.16%/1.98% respectively[34] Group 3: Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The average "acceptance-issuance" cycle for IPOs was 482 days, a 39% decrease month-on-month, indicating a shortening of the process[56] - As of the end of November 2025, there were 111 IPO projects in the A-share market with a total proposed fundraising of 189.4 billion yuan[56] - Risk factors include potential changes in the pace of IPO reviews, fluctuations in investor participation, and the quality/quantity of submitted projects[61]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914 points, with a daily increase of 0.65% and a monthly increase of 2.01% [1] - The Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2479 points, with a daily increase of 1.02% and a monthly increase of 3.68% [1] - The large-cap index showed a 1.07% increase yesterday but a decline of 1.25% over the past month, while the mid-cap index increased by 1.23% yesterday but declined by 3.23% over the past month [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - The professional chain industry saw a daily increase of 4.36%, while the industrial metals sector increased by 4.12% with a significant 66.19% increase over the past six months [1] - The communication equipment sector increased by 3.3% yesterday and has seen a remarkable 120.4% increase over the past six months [1] - The aquaculture industry experienced a decline of 1.4% yesterday and a 1.25% decline over the past month [1] Group 3: AI and Internet Media Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the ongoing expansion of AI capital expenditure (capex) in 2026, particularly focusing on the return on investment (ROI) from AI investments [2][11] - Key companies highlighted for investment include Alibaba, Baidu, and Kingsoft Cloud, with a focus on their AI capabilities and market positioning [2][11] - The report suggests that the commercialization of AI applications will become a priority, with significant growth expected in AI advertising and video tools [11] Group 4: Convertible Bonds Analysis - The weighted average remaining maturity of convertible bonds has decreased to approximately 2.53 years, with nearly 40% of convertible bonds having a remaining maturity of less than 2 years [3][12] - The report predicts that by the end of 2026, the weighted average remaining maturity of convertible bonds will further decrease to around 2.0 years, indicating a "super short duration" market [3][12] - The analysis indicates that as the remaining maturity shortens, the valuation of convertible bonds will likely decline, particularly for those with less than 2 years remaining [12][13] Group 5: Hengbo Co., Ltd. (301225) Analysis - Hengbo Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading supplier in the intake system market, with projected net profits of 152 million, 178 million, and 207 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 16.2%, 16.8%, and 16.2% respectively [3][14] - The company is expanding its business into new areas such as thermal management systems and PEEK materials, aiming to enhance its market presence and profitability [3][14] - The report assigns a "buy" rating to Hengbo Co., Ltd., with a target market value of 12.6 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 22% [3][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is positioned in the middle to lower range, with an AHP score of 1.69, placing it in the 22.6% percentile of the non-innovation system AHP model [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned from fuel vehicle thermal management to new energy vehicle battery thermal management and has expanded into the energy storage thermal management market. Its battery liquid cooling plates and related products are in mass production, with significant growth potential in both domestic and international markets [2][7]. - The company is a strategic supplier for CATL, with a market share of approximately 12.16% in 2024. It has also engaged in product testing with BYD and negotiations with LG Energy and Tata Group for overseas supply [7][8]. - The energy storage thermal management system has become a significant growth driver, with revenue from these products increasing from 0.36 billion in 2022 to 3.37 billion in 2024, representing a CAGR of 204% [8]. Summary by Sections AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The company achieved an AHP score of 1.69, indicating a middle to lower performance level in the market. The expected allocation ratios for different investor categories are 0.0211% for Class A and 0.0181% for Class B under neutral conditions [5][6]. New Stock Fundamentals and Highlights - The company leads in the liquid cooling plate segment and has successfully transitioned to new energy vehicle applications. It has established mass production capabilities for various cooling products and is in the market promotion phase for its battery integration box [6][7]. Comparable Company Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue for 2022-2024 was 10.31 billion, 11.36 billion, and 14.37 billion respectively, with net profits of 1.13 billion, 0.98 billion, and 0.95 billion. The company’s gross margin has been declining, with figures of 21.79%, 19.15%, and 17.36% over the same period, which is lower than comparable companies [14][17]. Fundraising Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to raise funds for a project to produce 3.6 million sets of water cooling plates annually, which will enhance its production capacity and support the integration of core components with battery boxes. The project is expected to yield significant returns [26][28].

2025 年 12 月 01 日 地方金融有为的五大模式 相关研究 《地方经济增长动力从哪里来？ — —规划引领 破解地方同质化发展 困局（二）》 2025/08/31 《创新规划编制理念 引导地方特色 化发展 ——规划引领 破解地方 同质化发展困局（一）》 2025/08/26 证券分析师 方思元 A0230522060002 fangsy@swsresearch.com 龚芳 A0230520080007 gongfang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曾培春 A0230524070011 zengpc@swsresearch.com 联系人 曾培春 A0230524070011 zengpc@swsresearch.com 证 券 研 究 报 告 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 宏 观 研 究 | 5.1 | 构建面向中小企业的地方金融服务生态 | 10 | | --- | --- | --- | | 5.2 | 金融服务中小微企业发展的台州经验 | 11 | 金 融 市 场 ⚫ "十五五"规划建议强调坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合的 ...

研 究 专 题 定增双周报 2025 年 12 月 01 日 收益回暖，行业分化 ——定增市场双周报 2025.11.17-2025.11.30 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 新 股 发 行 - ⚫ 新增项目增加，注册节奏加快。截至 2025 年 12 月 1 日，上两周（11 月 17 日至 11 月 30 日）新增 16 宗定增项目（其中竞价 12 宗），环比增加 4 宗；终止 11 宗（其中竞价 4 宗）， 环比增加 3 宗；发审委通过 16 宗（其中竞价 6 宗），环比持平；证监会通过 8 宗（其中竞 价 7 宗），环比增加 6 宗；处于正常待 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Neutral" to the company based on its AHP score of 1.69, which places it in the 22.6% percentile of the non-innovation system AHP model [7][8]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned from fuel vehicle thermal management to new energy vehicle battery thermal management and has expanded into the energy storage thermal management market. It is a strategic supplier for CATL, with a market share of approximately 12.16% in 2024 [2][9]. - The company’s revenue from energy storage thermal management products has grown significantly, from 36 million yuan in 2022 to 337 million yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 204% [11]. - The global market for battery liquid cooling plates is projected to reach 14.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 95.95% compared to 2022 [13]. - The company is also focusing on capacity expansion and product upgrades, with plans to produce 3.6 million sets of water cooling plates annually, integrating core components with battery box production [16][32]. Summary by Sections AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The company’s AHP score, adjusted for liquidity premium factors, is 1.69, indicating a mid-to-low level performance in the market [7][8]. New Stock Fundamentals and Features - The company leads in the liquid cooling plate segment and has established a stable supply capability, with ongoing negotiations for product supply with major clients like BYD and LG Energy [9][10]. - The company has completed over 300 product projects for various automotive manufacturers, including NIO and Mercedes-Benz, and has adapted over 200 vehicle models [9][10]. Comparable Company Financial Metrics - The company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 was 1.031 billion, 1.136 billion, and 1.437 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits declining from 113 million to 95 million yuan during the same period [20][21]. - The company’s gross margin has decreased from 21.79% in 2022 to 17.36% in 2024, which is below the average of comparable companies [20][22]. Fundraising Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to raise funds for a new production project aimed at producing 3.6 million sets of water cooling plates annually, with a projected internal rate of return of 7.06% [30][33].

市公司 公用事业 2025 年 12 月 01 日 气量毛差承压 自由现金流再创新高 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 11 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 8.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9130.18 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 8.85/5.97 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 468.54 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 5.448.15 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9100 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 37% 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 联系人 投资要点: 财务数据及盈利预测 | 2023/24 | | 2024/25 | 2025/26E | 2026/27E | 2027/28E | | --- | ...