加快节奏，备足预案 [Table_Authors] 黄汝南(分析师) 登记编号 S0880523080001 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.04.26 2025-05-05 宏 观 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 ——2025 年 4 月政治局会议点评 本报告导读： 会议要求强化底线思维，备足预案，"稳就业"成为首要任务。预计二季度将加快落 实两会部署的财政货币政策，增加优质供给发展服务消费，加快解决拖欠企业账款 和加力实施城市更新将支撑投资，并加大对受关税影响较大企业的民生保障力度。 政策仍留有后手，密切关注下半年提高赤字率的可能性。 投资要点： 宏 观 专 题 告 021-38676666 刘姜枫(研究助理) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880123070128 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 在大国博弈不断升温的背景下，此次会议在对形势的研判和工作基 调的表述上有三点边际增量：一是要求强化底线思维，充分备足预 案；二是统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to OUTPERFORM [2][3][10] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth, with a 2024 operating income of Rmb 4.04 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.17%, and a net profit of Rmb 779 million, up 178.4% year-on-year [4][7] - The refrigerant prices are on an upward trend, significantly improving the company's profitability, with a gross margin of 29.79% in 2024, increasing to 46.70% in Q1 2025 [8][9] - The demand for three generations of refrigerants is expected to continue rising, benefiting the company due to its substantial production quotas [9][10] Financial Performance - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are Rmb 5.95 billion, Rmb 6.47 billion, and Rmb 7.05 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of Rmb 2.01 billion, Rmb 2.42 billion, and Rmb 2.87 billion [3][10] - The diluted EPS is expected to rise from Rmb 3.30 in 2025 to Rmb 4.70 in 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth [10] Market Position - The company holds a significant market position with a production quota of 15.4% for three generations of refrigerants, positioning it to fully benefit from the ongoing market trends [9][10]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 5 May 2025 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 把握 5 月回调窗口，重点布局互联网和 AI 应用 Capitalizing on the May Dip: Internet & AI Application Focus 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周，市场似乎淡化了关税影响，转而聚焦于美股科技股积极的业绩展望，这主要得益于微软和Meta持续增加其 2026财年的资本支出。受此提振，纳斯达克指数涨3.4%，带动恒生指数涨2.4%；相比之下，由于仅交易了前三天， 上证综指下跌0.5%，而创业板指则维持在平盘。我们一直认为，贸易战整体风险相对可控，其主要支撑在于新技术 所创造的需求有望缓解不断累积的债务压力。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanghai Chemspec (688602 CH) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents [1][2]. Core Insights - In 2024, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -0.50 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 143.95%, with operating income of 675 million yuan, down 31.11% year-on-year [4][5]. - The geopolitical impact has deepened, leading to increased external uncertainties in international trade and weak overall market performance [4][5]. - The company expects a more optimistic outlook for 2025, with new materials actively developing metallocene co-catalyst projects and polyimide monomer projects, supported by large orders in the CDMO segment [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the new materials segment generated operating income of 358 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.03%, with a gross profit margin of 2.70%, down 7.90 percentage points [6]. - The CDMO business reported operating income of 295 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.29%, with a gross profit margin of 23.17%, down 16.06 percentage points [6]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating income of 243 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.27%, and a net profit of 31 million yuan, up 59.73% year-on-year [5]. Production and Expansion Plans - The ETO production line expansion is expected to be implemented in 2026, with a 50,000-ton project currently under construction, aiming for production of less than 30,000 tons [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][5][16]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 17.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025 due to a high base effect, with revenue reported at RMB 660 million. However, there was a slight quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.5% compared to Q4 2024 [3][11]. - The gross margin remained stable at 93.9%, while operating expenses increased due to higher sales, administrative, and R&D expense ratios, leading to an overall operating expense ratio increase of 3.9 percentage points [12]. - Non-recurring gains offset the revenue decline, resulting in a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 440 million, down 15.9% year-on-year, but with a net profit margin improvement to 66.9% [13]. - The company is planning to acquire 85% of South Korean company REGEN for USD 190 million, which is expected to significantly contribute to revenue and profits in 2026 [14][16]. - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are RMB 3.30 billion and RMB 3.60 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2% and 9.1% [15][16]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3,026 million for 2024, with projections of RMB 3,304 million for 2025 and RMB 3,603 million for 2026, indicating a consistent growth trajectory [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 2.02 billion in 2025 and RMB 2.18 billion in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.1% and 7.7% [15][16]. - The company maintains a high gross profit margin of 94.6% for 2025, with a projected decline to 93.6% by 2026 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth, with revenue projected to reach RMB 4.05 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.86% [10]. - The diverse product matrix supports growth, with significant revenue increases in various segments, particularly in new energy materials and precision ceramics [11][12]. - The company is focusing on domestic substitution and overseas expansion to drive growth, particularly in the biomedical sector and precision ceramics [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 3.86 billion, with projections of RMB 4.05 billion for 2024, RMB 4.69 billion for 2025, RMB 5.62 billion for 2026, and RMB 6.79 billion for 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.8% from 2024 to 2027 [2][4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from RMB 605 million in 2024 to RMB 1.11 billion in 2027, with a notable increase of 27.2% in 2025 [2][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 0.61 in 2024 to RMB 1.11 in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [2][4]. Segment Performance - In 2024, revenue from electronic materials, catalytic materials, biomedical, new energy materials, precision ceramics, and digital printing showed varied growth rates, with new energy materials growing by 48.34% and precision ceramics by 41.68% [11]. - The company is expanding its product applications in automotive and AI sectors through its electronic materials segment, particularly in MLCC powder applications [11]. Valuation - The report assigns a target price of RMB 19.25 for 2025, based on a 25x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, reflecting a decrease from the previous valuation due to external factors affecting demand [4][9].

4 May 2025 研究报告 Research Report 香港医疗 Hong Kong Health Care 医药行业周报（250428-0502），基本面主导上涨，外部政策影响逐渐改善 Weekly Report on the HK Stock Market Healthcare Industry: The rally is fundamentally driven, with external policy impacts gradually improving [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 股票名称 | 评级 | | 京东健康 | Outperform 康宁杰瑞 | Outperform | | 药明生物 | Outperform 固生堂 | Outperform | | 阿里健康 | Outperform 复宏汉霖 | Outperform | | 康方生物 | Outperform 诺辉健康-B | Outperform | | 中国生物制药 ...

[Table_Title] Research Report 2 May 2025 壳牌 (SHEL US) 主要由上游业务带动的良好业绩增长；持续回购 Scott Darling Catherine Li scott.darling@htisec.com catherine.dy.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] Flash Analysis [（本报告为 Table_summary] 2025 年 5 月 1 日发布的英文报告的翻译版。） 要闻回顾以及最新动态 我们预计壳牌（HTI 未覆盖）的 25 年第一季度业绩的市场反应为积极 ，该公司报告的调整后净收入为 55.77 亿美 元，远高于共识，这主要得益于该公司除可再生能源以外的所有业务部门。该公司在最近的资本市场日上重申了 其 25 财年资本支出指南，即 200-220 亿美元。公司还宣布在 25 年第二季度实施 35 亿美元的回购计划。 点评 主要受上游业务推动，业绩大幅增长：壳牌公布的调整后净收入为 55.77 亿美元，而共识值为 49.63 亿美元，这主 要是受上游业务部门的推动。资本支出为 41.75 亿美元，约为 25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Chart Industries, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [12]. Core Insights - Chart Industries reported slightly better-than-expected earnings for Q1 2025, driven by strong performance in specialty products and a solid backlog of orders, which reached a record high of $5.14 billion [2][3]. - The company reaffirmed its guidance for FY 2025, projecting revenues between $4.65 billion and $4.85 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $1.175 billion and $1.225 billion [3]. - The company emphasized that the impact of tariffs is limited and can be offset by cost reductions, maintaining a positive outlook on liquefied natural gas contracts [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Adjusted net income for Q1 2025 was $84 million, slightly above the consensus estimate of $79 million, with revenues of $1.002 billion, close to the expected $1.01 billion [2]. - The adjusted EBITDA was $231 million, exceeding the consensus of $228 million, with a gross margin of 33.9%, aligning with the mid-point of the company's guidance [2][5]. Order Backlog - The backlog of orders reached a historic high of $5.14 billion, up from $4.85 billion in Q4 2024, with total orders for the quarter amounting to $1.32 billion [2][3]. Guidance Reaffirmation - The company reiterated its FY 2025 guidance, expecting adjusted earnings per share between $12 and $13, and free cash flow between $550 million and $600 million, compared to $388 million in FY 2024 [3]. - The net leverage ratio increased to 2.91 times, but the company remains confident in achieving its target leverage ratio of 2.0 to 2.5 times [3]. Mid-term Outlook - Chart Industries expects organic revenue growth to remain in the mid-teens, with gross margins maintaining in the mid-30% range and free cash flow conversion rates of 95%-100% [3].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for April 2025 is 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the sector[5] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is primarily attributed to external shocks from trade friction, although domestic demand remains relatively stable[5] - New export orders index fell to 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points, reflecting increased pressure on export-oriented industries due to trade uncertainties[15] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The services business activity index is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, indicating stability in the sector[22] - The construction business activity index is 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, with civil engineering showing improvement at 60.9%[26] - Seasonal factors, such as the upcoming "May Day" holiday, may lead to a rebound in the travel sector's activity[22] Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central government is accelerating the implementation of existing policies to boost domestic demand in response to external uncertainties[30] - Over 160 billion yuan has been allocated for consumption incentives, with an additional 140 billion yuan planned for future investments[30] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and effective investment is expected to support economic recovery in the second quarter[30]