Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for S.F. Holding with a target price of RMB 48.50, based on a current price of RMB 43.12 [2][15]. Core Insights - In FY24, S.F. Holding achieved a revenue of RMB 284.42 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and a net profit of RMB 10.17 billion, which is up 23.51% YoY [3][12]. - The company is transitioning from a traditional "product-selling" model to a "solution-providing" strategy, which is expected to drive sustained growth [15]. Revenue Performance - The total business volume for 2024 reached 13.33 billion parcels, marking an 11.3% increase YoY, with express logistics revenue of RMB 205.8 billion, up 7.7% YoY [4][13]. - International operations outperformed domestic growth, with supply chain and international business revenue increasing by 17.5% YoY to RMB 70.5 billion [4][13]. Cost Management - The company improved its gross margin by 1.1 percentage points to 13.9% in 2024 through enhanced efficiency in transfer, transportation, and delivery processes [5][13]. Shareholder Returns - S.F. Holding increased its dividend payout ratio from 35% to 40% in 2024, distributing a total of RMB 4.10 billion in dividends, along with a one-time special dividend of RMB 4.80 billion [14]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profit for FY25-27 is RMB 12.10 billion, RMB 14.38 billion, and RMB 16.45 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.43, RMB 2.88, and RMB 3.30 [6][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment outlook for Borouge, indicating confidence in its market position and future performance [1]. Core Insights - Borouge is positioned as a global leader in the polyolefins industry, maintaining a strong cost and profit leadership status [1]. - The establishment of Borouge Group International (BGI) is expected to enhance its competitive edge, with a projected EBITDA of over $7 billion throughout the cycle and annual synergies of $500 million [3][4]. - BGI is anticipated to maintain its cost leadership in the global petrochemical cost curve, primarily due to its use of natural gas liquids as feedstock and the economies of scale from its integrated production facilities [3][4]. - The company expects to achieve a price premium for its polyethylene and polypropylene products, with projected premiums of $200/ton and $140/ton, respectively, due to its differentiated Borstar® technology [4]. - BGI's average EBITDA margin is forecasted to reach 26% from FY2020 to FY2024, significantly higher than the industry average of 16% [4]. Company Overview - Borouge is a diversified petrochemical company headquartered in Abu Dhabi, recognized as one of the largest petrochemical producers globally [2]. - The company operates one of the world's largest integrated polyolefins production facilities in Abu Dhabi and has logistics centers across the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, and Asia [2]. - Borouge's primary products consist of polyethylene and polypropylene, with sales concentrated in Europe (39%), Asia (25%), and the Americas (23%) for FY2024 [2]. Strategic Developments - The merger of Borouge and Borealis, along with the acquisition of NOVA Chemicals, will create a new entity, BGI, with a total capacity of 13.6 million tons/year, making it the fourth-largest globally [3]. - The transaction is expected to be completed in Q1 2026, further solidifying Borouge's market position [3]. - Borouge's dividend policy aims to distribute $1.3 billion in dividends for FY2025, with a minimum annual dividend of 16.2 fils per share [6]. Market Outlook - The petrochemical industry is showing early signs of recovery, with Borouge expressing confidence in the sector's strength despite recent challenges [6]. - The company is conducting feasibility studies for a new specialty polyolefins plant in China, reflecting its positive outlook on the Chinese market, which accounts for approximately 30% of its total sales [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company with a target price of HK$1.41, based on a current price of HK$1.26 [2][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a profit attributable to shareholders of RMB1.061 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 69.49%, despite a slight decrease in operating revenue of 2.13% to RMB21.265 billion [6][10]. - The company benefits from rising potash fertilizer prices, with potash operating income decreasing from RMB5.250 billion in 2023 to RMB3.939 billion in 2024, accounting for 19% of total revenue [8][10]. - The sales of bio-fertilizers have significantly increased, with revenue share rising from 12% in 2022 to 22% in 2024, and gross profit share increasing from 14% to 36% during the same period [9][10]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB22.693 billion, RMB24.979 billion, and RMB27.292 billion, respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB1.400 billion, RMB1.601 billion, and RMB1.863 billion [5][10]. - The diluted EPS is projected to increase from RMB0.20 in 2025 to RMB0.27 in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [5][10]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 12% to 12.5% over the forecast period [5][10]. Product and Business Segmentation - In 2024, the company sold 7.21 million tons of fertilizers, with compound fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and potash fertilizers generating revenues of RMB6.748 billion, RMB6.660 billion, and RMB3.939 billion, respectively [7][10]. - The growth business segment saw a revenue increase of 2.23% year-on-year, while the basic and production business segments experienced declines in segment profit [7][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a key player in China's potash fertilizer market, acting as a negotiator for large import contracts and ensuring domestic supply [8][10]. - The strategic focus on bio-fertilizers aligns with national policies aimed at increasing efficiency and reducing chemical fertilizer usage, enhancing the company's market position [9][10].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 31 Mar 2025 日本策略 Japan Strategy 海上观日 Japan Stock Market Weekly Review 美国征收额外关税不是新的新闻，丰田等日本车企因其在美国销售的汽 车中有较大部份是在美国生产的，被很多市场人士认为受关税的负面影 响相对较小。但美国总统特朗普 26 日宣布美国将对所有的进口汽车征 收 25%关税之后，越来越多的人开始担心额外关税不仅会导致进口汽车 部分的利润下降，美国汽车市场整体需求也很可能面临萎缩，不少研究 机构纷纷下调了 25 年美国新车销量预期，这导致汽车股遭到进一步抛 售。 季屏子 Pingzi Ji pz.ji@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 市场观察： 上周对美国关税政策的担忧左右日本市场，日经 225 指数按周下跌 1.48%收于 37120，TOPIX 指数 按周下跌 1.67%收于 275 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][2][7] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in 2024, with revenue of Rmb 3.03 billion (+5.5%) and net profit of Rmb 1.96 billion (+5.3%), maintaining a gross profit margin of 94.6% [3][11] - The company is focusing on overseas mergers and acquisitions, particularly the proposed acquisition of REGEN in South Korea, which is expected to significantly contribute to revenue and profits in 2026 [4][16] Financial Performance - Revenue and profit growth for 2024: Revenue of Rmb 3,026 million, net profit of Rmb 1,958 million, with a gross profit margin of 94.6% [3][11] - Q4 2024 performance showed a revenue decline of 7.0% to Rmb 650 million and a net profit decline of 15.5% to Rmb 370 million [12] - Revenue by product category: Solution-based products Rmb 1.74 billion (+4.4%), Gel-based products Rmb 1.22 billion (+5.0%), Facial implant threads Rmb 6.804 million (+15.0%), Other revenue Rmb 59.192 million (+68.5%) [13][14] Research and Development - Increased R&D investment with a ratio of 10.0% in 2024, focusing on new product pipelines and clinical trials [4][15] - The company has received clinical trial approvals for several new products, indicating a commitment to innovation [15] Acquisition Strategy - The proposed acquisition of REGEN for US$190 million is expected to enhance the company's product offerings and production capacity, with the second factory in South Korea expected to start production in Q2 2025 [4][16] - The target company reported revenue of Rmb 72.23 million and net profit of Rmb 29.5 million from January to September 2024 [16] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are Rmb 3.30 billion and Rmb 3.60 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.2% and 9.1% [5][17] - The target price is set at Rmb 299.47 per share, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 45x for 2025 and 42x for 2026 [7][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 5.27 HKD per share based on a 14x PE valuation for 2025E [9]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of 21.49 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 861 million RMB, up 3.36% year-on-year. The second half of the year showed significant revenue growth improvement, driven by average price increases despite a decline in sales volume [2][8]. - The gross profit margin increased by 2.61 percentage points to 37.79%, with gross profit rising by 7.65% year-on-year. The sales expense ratio increased due to heightened market competition and promotional spending [2][8]. - The company is focusing on restructuring to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, with notable performance in the soda and functional drinks categories [2][8]. Financial Data and Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 23.13 billion RMB, 24.62 billion RMB, and 26.05 billion RMB, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 975 million RMB, 1.10 billion RMB, and 1.24 billion RMB for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 0.35 RMB, 0.39 RMB, and 0.44 RMB [2][5][8]. - The company achieved revenue of 16.37 billion RMB in the soda category for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.50%, maintaining the leading market share [3][8]. - The juice category reported revenue of 3.13 billion RMB, down 7.46% year-on-year, focusing on profit packaging development [3][8]. Business Strategy and Performance - The company is optimizing its customer structure and marketing network, achieving significant growth in direct sales and maintaining a controllable business revenue ratio of approximately 90% [4][5]. - The smart retail business has shown rapid revenue growth, and the COFCO Enjoy Club has also seen revenue increases with improved average product prices [2][8]. - The company is expanding its product offerings, including new packaging for soda and innovative marketing strategies targeting younger consumers [3][4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for DPC Dash [2][6][13] Core Views - DPC Dash reported a revenue of RMB 4.31 billion for 2024, representing a 41% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit margin of 72.9% [3][12] - The company achieved a same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 2.5%, marking 30 consecutive quarters of positive growth [4][12] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 131 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.0%, up 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [5][12] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 5.44 billion, RMB 7.03 billion, and RMB 8.78 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 188 million, RMB 340 million, and RMB 492 million [6][11][13] - The company plans to open 300 new stores in 2025, following a net addition of 240 stores in 2024, bringing the total to 1,008 stores [4][12] - Membership program growth is notable, with a total of 24.5 million members by the end of 2024, contributing 64.5% to revenue [4][12] Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set at HKD 125.9, reflecting a valuation of 2.5-3 times the price-to-sales ratio for 2025 [2][6][13] - The report indicates a significant increase in target price from a previous estimate of HKD 79.4, highlighting the company's strong growth potential [6][13]

Economic Overview - In February 2025, Indonesia's CPI decreased by 0.09% year-on-year, marking the first annual deflation since March 2000[2] - Thailand's CPI increased by 1.08% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 1.10%[25] - Vietnam's CPI rose by 2.91% year-on-year, the lowest level in three months[41] Consumer Confidence - Indonesia's consumer confidence index fell to 126.4 in February 2025, down from 127.2 in January, reflecting concerns over declining purchasing power[20] - Thailand's consumer confidence index improved to 57.8 in February 2025, up from 54.2 in the previous year, driven by government stimulus and tourism recovery[27] Stock Market Performance - Only Vietnam and Singapore's stock markets closed higher in February 2025, while Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam's consumer sectors outperformed the broader market[3] - The STI index in Singapore reached a historical high of 3934 points in mid-February due to government stimulus measures[3] Valuation Trends - As of February 2025, the historical valuation levels for essential consumption in Indonesia were at 5%, while Thailand's were at 1% for essential and 64% for discretionary consumption[4] - Vietnam's essential consumption valuation improved to 28%, contrasting with declines in other markets[4] Retail Index Data - In February 2025, Indonesia's retail index was reported at 211.3, while Singapore's was at 122.8, and Malaysia's at 184.9[8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7][16] Core Insights - The company is driven by dual-engine growth through partnerships and commercial sales, achieving key milestones in 2024 [4][14] - The company reported FY24 revenue of RMB 430 million, a 20.9% increase, with drug sales of RMB 35.94 million and business development revenue of RMB 390 million [12][3] - The gross profit reached RMB 420 million, reflecting a 31.1% increase, with a gross margin of 97.2% [12][3] - R&D expenses totaled RMB 740 million, representing 171.7% of revenue, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [12][3] - The company has a robust commercial team of over 300 employees, effectively covering more than 1,100 hospitals across 220+ cities [13][3] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to RMB 700 million and RMB 1.2 billion, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 63.2% and 71.7% [16][7] - The company is expected to incur net losses of RMB 580 million and RMB 550 million for 2025 and 2026 [16][7] - The DCF valuation model suggests a target price of HKD 70.75 per share, reflecting a positive outlook [16][7] Product Development and Pipeline - CM310 has been approved for three indications and is expected to achieve RMB 500 million in sales this year [18][5] - CMG901 is in a global Phase III trial and shows promising results, positioning it to be the first approved CLDN18.2 ADC [18][5] - The company has established Newco collaborations for several projects, expected to generate significant upfront and milestone payments [18][5] R&D Capabilities - The company has a diverse R&D platform with multiple novel molecules in clinical stages, including CM336 and CM350 [15][6] - The TCE platform is advancing steadily, with several molecules showing preliminary positive efficacy [15][6] - The company is expanding into innovative RNA-based therapeutics, reflecting its commitment to cutting-edge research [15][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Biopharmaceutical with a target price of HKD 297.20, reflecting an upward revision of 48.5% from the previous target price of HKD 200.1 [2][22]. Core Insights - The company has entered a phase where R&D collaboration revenue and commercial sales serve as dual growth drivers, with a sales team expanding to 360 members by the end of 2024 [4][15]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.93 billion for 2024, a 25.5% year-over-year increase, with a gross profit of RMB 1.27 billion and a gross margin of 65.9%, up 16.6 percentage points [3][14]. - Regulatory and R&D catalysts are expected to be abundant in 2025, with three NDAs submitted that are likely to be approved within the year, contributing to incremental revenue growth [5][19]. Financial Performance - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to RMB 1.96 billion, RMB 2.98 billion, and RMB 4.47 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth of +1.4%, +52.2%, and +49.9% respectively [21]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to -RMB 280 million, RMB 240 million, and RMB 1.02 billion, showing a significant improvement from previous estimates [21]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had cash and financial assets of RMB 3.08 billion, reflecting a 21.6% year-over-year increase [3][14]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The company has three approved products covering five indications, with ongoing clinical trials for SKB264 and other promising molecules in its pipeline [4][16]. - SKB264 has seen steady sales growth since its market launch in November 2024, with peak sales estimated to reach USD 6-7 billion [16]. - A167, the first PD-L1 inhibitor approved for nasopharyngeal carcinoma, holds significant commercial potential due to the high prevalence of the disease in China [17]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a DCF model with a weighted average cost of capital of 9.4% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%, leading to a target price of HKD 297.20 per share [22].