Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Pop Mart International [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue projected to grow by no less than 200% year-on-year, and net profit expected to increase by no less than 350% [12] - The growth is attributed to the global recognition of Pop Mart's IP, diversified product categories driving revenue growth across regions, and improved cost management enhancing profitability [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 35.1 billion, RMB 53.5 billion, and RMB 69.1 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 169%, 53%, and 29% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are RMB 11.2 billion, RMB 17.8 billion, and RMB 23.8 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 229%, 58%, and 34% [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 66.8% in 2024 to 74.9% by 2027 [11] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully expanded its IP portfolio, with new IPs like CRYBABY gaining traction, indicating a reduced reliance on a few key IPs [4] - The overseas business is growing rapidly, particularly in the U.S., where price increases are expected to enhance regional gross margins [4] - The launch of new product lines, including the independent accessory brand POPOP, aims to broaden the customer base and explore IP value [3]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the intelligent video device industry, particularly for panoramic and action cameras, highlighting significant growth potential in the market [3][32][54]. Core Insights - The intelligent video device market, especially panoramic and action cameras, is experiencing continuous expansion, with a projected retail scale exceeding 40 billion yuan in 2024 and expected to reach nearly 60 billion yuan by 2027 [13][54]. - The report emphasizes the leading market share of Insta360 in the panoramic camera segment, with a 67.2% share, while the action camera segment is poised for growth [70][54]. - Domestic brands like GoPro and Insta360 are noted for their strong operational performance and potential for global market expansion [32][81]. Market Trends - The outdoor sports sector is driving the demand for action cameras, with the GDP contribution from outdoor activities in the U.S. showing a consistent upward trend, reaching 2.3% [33][34]. - The report highlights the increasing popularity of short video content, with over 1.04 billion short video users in China by 2024, fostering a consumer base for panoramic and action cameras [40][42]. - The accessibility of user-friendly video editing tools is lowering the barriers for content creation, enhancing user engagement with intelligent video devices [48][49]. Regional Analysis - North America and Europe dominate the action camera market, with respective market sizes of 13.42 billion yuan and 10.2 billion yuan in 2023, while the Chinese market is rapidly growing with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41% from 2017 to 2023 [65][66]. - The report projects that the Chinese market for action cameras will maintain a CAGR of over 26% from 2023 to 2027, indicating substantial growth potential [65][66]. Company Performance - GoPro is focusing on subscription services to enhance revenue, with a notable increase in subscribers for its premium services [74][78]. - Insta360's product lines, particularly the Ace series, are expected to capture significant market share, with a gross margin of 52.2% in 2024 [81][82]. - The report notes that Insta360's revenue from consumer-grade cameras is projected to reach 47.89 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 86% of its total revenue [83].

Investment Rating - The report suggests that domestic thermal power companies have low PE valuations and potential for higher dividends, with overseas leaders like Duke Energy having PEs around 20 [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that thermal power asset acquisition/sale transactions have PB valuations significantly higher than the secondary market valuations for thermal power stocks, indicating that thermal power stocks are undervalued [1][11]. - It notes that since 2022, there have been multiple asset transactions, primarily in northern and central regions, with 7 acquisitions (4 by power companies and 3 by coal companies) and 4 sales (all by power companies) [2][10]. - The median PB valuation for thermal power assets in these transactions is 1.3, while the median PB for listed thermal power companies is 0.9, suggesting a disparity in valuation [11][12]. - The median PE valuation for thermal power assets exceeds 10, with a range of 7.2 to 31.8 for the relevant transactions, indicating that industry capital values thermal assets at a premium [12]. Summary by Sections Investment Advice - Domestic thermal power companies are viewed as having low PE valuations with room for dividend increases, while international leaders are valued around 20 times PE [2][10]. Asset Transactions - The report details 11 acquisition/sale cases, with 3 having negative book values but acquired at a premium, and the remaining 8 having PBs ranging from 1.0 to 2.6 [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the thermal power sector is experiencing significant asset transactions, particularly in the northern and central regions of China [2][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates that the median PB for thermal power assets is 1.3, compared to 0.9 for listed companies, highlighting the undervaluation of thermal power stocks [11][12]. - The median PE for thermal power assets is noted to be over 10, with a range of 7.2 to 31.8, suggesting that industry capital values thermal assets at a higher level than the secondary market [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Borouge, indicating an expected relative return exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% over the next 12-18 months [25]. Core Insights - Borouge is positioned as a global leader in the chemical industry, focusing on high-value and sustainable returns, with a strong emphasis on maintaining cost leadership and product differentiation [2][4]. - The establishment of Borouge Group International (BGI) through the merger with Borealis and the acquisition of NOVA Chemicals is expected to enhance operational efficiency and market presence, with a projected EBITDA of over $7 billion throughout the cycle [3][4]. - The company anticipates maintaining a premium pricing strategy for its polyethylene and polypropylene products, with benchmarks set at $200/ton and $140/ton respectively [4]. - Borouge's average EBITDA margin is projected to reach 26% from FY20-24, significantly higher than the industry average of 16% [4]. Company Overview - Borouge, headquartered in Abu Dhabi, is one of the largest petrochemical producers globally, primarily owned by ADNOC and Borealis [2]. - The company operates one of the world's largest integrated polyolefins facilities in Al Ruwais, with a production capacity of 5 million tons per year [2]. - Borouge's product offerings mainly include polyethylene and polypropylene, with a significant sales focus on the Asian market [2]. Strategic Developments - The merger forming BGI is expected to create a total production capacity of 13.6 million tons per year, positioning it as the fourth-largest player globally [3]. - The company is exploring the feasibility of a new specialty polyolefins plant in China, which is seen as a promising market due to its significant sales contribution [7][8]. - Borouge emphasizes the importance of artificial intelligence and digitalization in optimizing operations and maintaining high utilization rates in its facilities [8]. Financial Outlook - BGI plans to offer a minimum annual dividend of 16.2 fils per share, targeting a payout of 90% of free cash flow [6]. - The company expects to maintain its dividend policy, with a projected distribution of $1.3 billion in FY25 prior to the completion of the merger [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 960 million to RMB 990 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 57.64% to 62.57% [3][9]. - The company has shown strong performance in both online and offline channels, with a 25% year-on-year growth in domestic revenue and a revenue growth rate exceeding 40% in Q2 2025 [4][10]. - The Ecovacs brand has maintained excellent performance since Q4 2024, with over 60% growth in Q2 2025 [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: RMB 16,542 million - 2025E: RMB 19,811 million (20% growth) - 2026E: RMB 22,375 million (13% growth) - 2027E: RMB 24,866 million (11% growth) [2][4]. - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2024: RMB 806 million - 2025E: RMB 1,824 million (126% growth) - 2026E: RMB 2,009 million (10% growth) - 2027E: RMB 2,283 million (14% growth) [2][4]. - The expected diluted EPS for the years 2025 to 2027 are RMB 3.17, RMB 3.49, and RMB 3.97 respectively [2][11]. Valuation - The company is assigned a 25x PE valuation for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 79.25 [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance will take effect on August 1, 2024, with initial licenses expected to be limited to a single-digit number, focusing on applicants' reserve management, compliance, and technical security [1][34] - The regulatory framework for virtual assets in Hong Kong includes various license types, such as VATP licenses for trading platforms and specific licenses for stablecoin issuers, with stringent requirements [2][35] - The stablecoin supply chain is categorized into upstream (infrastructure), midstream (issuers and distributors), and downstream (application scenarios), highlighting the ecosystem's complexity and interdependencies [3][12][13] Summary by Sections 1. Hong Kong Virtual Asset Regulatory Framework - Different types of licenses are required for various players in the virtual asset space, including VATP licenses for trading platforms and upgraded licenses for existing SFC licensees [2][11] - The entry threshold for stablecoin issuers includes a paid-up capital of at least HK$25 million and compliance with quarterly audits and reserve asset regulations [10][28] 2. Stablecoin Supply Chain - The stablecoin supply chain is divided into three segments: upstream (infrastructure), midstream (issuers and distributors), and downstream (application scenarios) [3][12] - Key players in the midstream include issuers like Circle and Tether, and distributors such as licensed trading platforms and brokers [12][13] 3. Stablecoin Issuance Process - The stablecoin issuance process involves several steps, including user exchange initiation, fund custody, reserve management, and issuance of stablecoins [4][20] - Issuers maintain a 1:1 reserve mechanism to ensure stablecoin value is pegged to fiat currencies, with reserves diversified into cash and low-risk assets [19][20] 4. Profitability Models - Stablecoin issuers generate revenue primarily from interest on reserve assets, while distributors earn from transaction fees and other services [5][23] - The report highlights the clear profitability paths for stablecoin issuers and distributors, emphasizing their potential for resource integration across the supply chain [5][23] 5. Comparison with Mainland China - The report outlines the stablecoin landscape in Hong Kong and mainland China, identifying key participants and their roles within the ecosystem [14][15] - Notable players include custodians, issuers, and distributors, with a focus on the regulatory sandbox initiatives in Hong Kong [16][30] 6. Impact on Traditional Payment Systems - The emergence of stablecoins is expected to disrupt traditional payment models, offering new opportunities for payment service providers to expand their services [31] - Stablecoins may enable payment processors to access diverse payment scenarios and enhance their offerings through technology integration [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Jinxin Fertility [1][2]. Core Views - The demand for assisted reproductive technology (ART) in China is expected to reach a turning point, driven by delayed childbearing and the gradual release of policy benefits. The average childbearing age in China is approaching 30, leading to an increase in the proportion of older mothers and a significant rise in demand for ART [3][29]. - The company's overseas business is experiencing strong growth, particularly in the U.S., where the number of egg retrieval cycles is projected to increase by 18.2% year-on-year in 2024. New policies in California are expected to further boost demand for ART services [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Future Trends in China's Assisted Reproductive Demand - The number of newborns in China is expected to stabilize in 2024, with a continuous increase in the proportion of births from older mothers. The average childbearing age has risen to 29.0 years, with a significant demand for ART from older women [14][16]. - The penetration rate of ART in China is anticipated to accelerate as the average childbearing age surpasses 30, similar to trends observed in other developed countries [19][20]. - Payment policies are identified as a core factor influencing ART penetration rates, with significant room for improvement in China's healthcare insurance and subsidy policies [25][26]. 2. Revenue and Profit Outlook for Domestic and Overseas Businesses - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 28.1 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8%, primarily due to patients delaying treatment in anticipation of policy changes [34]. - The domestic business is expected to stabilize, while the overseas business, particularly in the U.S., is set to grow significantly due to an increase in the number of doctors and favorable policy changes [38][40]. - The company has successfully controlled costs, with a sales and management expense ratio of approximately 22.5%, which has helped mitigate pressure on profit margins [44]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 29.9 billion and RMB 32.6 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 6.4% and 9.0% [5][46]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 4.2 billion and RMB 4.7 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 0.9% and 10.5% [5][46]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at HKD 3.69, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22x for 2025 and 20x for 2026, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value as a leader in the assisted reproductive sector [49].

Price Trends - June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a return to positive growth after four months of negative figures[7] - June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to expand compared to the previous month[7] - Core CPI rose to 0.7% year-on-year, the highest in nearly 14 months, supported by the "trade-in" policy[14] Consumer Behavior - The "trade-in" subsidy policy has been a significant factor in supporting durable goods prices, leading to a slight recovery in core CPI[7] - Food prices saw a marginal improvement, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 0.7% month-on-month, better than seasonal trends[12] - Service-related prices remained weak, indicating limited progress in the recovery of household balance sheets[7] Economic Risks - The ongoing uncertainty in the real estate market poses risks to economic stability[3] - External pressures, including tariff issues and uncertain foreign demand, continue to affect the economy[30] - The potential overspending of future consumption demand due to the "trade-in" policy could lead to economic challenges[30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, Haier Smart Home, and others, while Lulu Lemon is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as the earnings season approaches, stock price volatility is expected to increase due to expectation gaps [4][21]. - The gambling sector has shown strong performance, driven by higher-than-expected visitor numbers in Macau, leading to upward revisions in market expectations for monthly GGR and EBITDA [5][12]. - The report notes that most sectors are currently valued below their historical averages over the past five years, indicating potential investment opportunities [8][16]. Sector Performance Review - Weekly performance rankings show Gambling > Luxury Goods > U.S. Hotel > Domestic Sportswear > Domestic Cosmetics > Daily Necessities > Overseas Sportswear > Overseas Cosmetics > Credit Card > Snacks > Gold Jewelry > Pet, with the Gambling sector outperforming the MSCI China index [10][21]. - Monthly performance also favors the Gambling sector, followed by U.S. Hotel and Luxury Goods, while Domestic Cosmetics and Pet sectors experienced negative growth [22]. - Year-to-date performance indicates Gold Jewelry leading, followed by Domestic Cosmetics and Overseas Cosmetics, with the Overseas Sportswear sector showing negative growth [23]. Valuation Analysis - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis, indicating that many sectors, including Overseas Sportswear and Domestic Sportswear, are trading below their historical PE averages, suggesting potential upside [8][16]. - Specific expected PE ratios for 2025 are provided, with Overseas Sportswear at 34.4x (55% of its 5-year average), Domestic Sportswear at 12.6x (72%), and Gambling at 17.6x (26%) [16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, and Haidilao, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant product launches and collaborations in the food and beverage sector, such as Luckin Coffee's "Mung Bean Latte" and Guming's Pomelo series, indicating a trend towards innovative offerings [6]. - The performance of key companies in the restaurant sector shows strong growth, with Xiabuxiabu leading at +13.5% for the week, suggesting a positive market sentiment [7]. - The designer toys sector is also noted for its performance, with Bloks showing an increase of +8.6%, while Miniso experienced a decline of -1.6% [7]. Summary by Category Food & Beverage - Key companies like Xiabuxiabu, Chabaidao, and Guming have shown significant weekly gains, indicating robust consumer interest and market performance [2][4]. - New product launches, such as those from Luckin Coffee and Guming, are expected to drive further sales and customer engagement [6]. Designer Toys - The sector has seen varied performance, with Bloks performing well while Miniso faced challenges, reflecting competitive dynamics within the market [7]. Home Appliances - TCL Electronics has shown a strong performance with a +7.1% increase, while other companies like JS Global Life and Roborock have underperformed, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [2][4].