Group 1 - The report highlights ten investment themes focusing on advanced manufacturing, emerging technologies, and structural improvements, indicating a favorable environment for thematic investments in the second half of 2025 [1][4][10] - The report emphasizes the shift in investor perception towards a "transformation bull market" in China's stock market, driven by declining discount rates and a reduction in opportunity costs for equity investments [10][11] - The low-altitude economy is entering a "manned era," with the first operational certificates for manned civil unmanned aerial vehicles issued, indicating significant growth potential in this sector [2][34] Group 2 - The low-altitude economy market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, with a growth rate of 33.8% year-on-year in 2023, driven by the manufacturing of low-altitude aircraft and operational services [36][40] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to see a significant increase in satellite launch demand, with multiple satellite constellations entering a dense networking phase, highlighting a substantial gap in launch capacity [41][49] - The deep-sea technology sector is being prioritized under the "Marine Power" strategy, with a focus on developing key technologies and equipment, aiming to enhance China's capabilities in deep-sea resource exploration and utilization [55][64] Group 3 - The semiconductor industry is identified as a critical battleground in the technology competition, with a focus on domestic advancements in lithography technology and the promotion of mergers and acquisitions to strengthen the supply chain [3][64] - The report recommends investing in leading semiconductor equipment and materials companies, as well as domestic computing power industry chains, to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced semiconductor technologies [3][64] - The intelligent driving sector is experiencing accelerated penetration, with the report suggesting investments in key components such as intelligent driving chips, cameras, and lidar systems, as well as smart transportation software and hardware companies [3][64]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the low-altitude flight training industry Core Insights - The low-altitude market is thriving, with both manned and unmanned aircraft flourishing, highlighting the increasing importance of flight training as a critical infrastructure for development [7] - There is a significant supply-demand imbalance in both the general aviation and drone training markets, with the general aviation training market facing a contraction in demand while the drone training market is experiencing rapid supply expansion [54] Summary by Sections 1. Pilot License Requirements - General aviation licenses are more stringent than drone licenses, with a four-tier management system established by CAAC for various pilot licenses [2][8] - Drone licenses follow a tiered management structure based on weight and operational type, with a focus on safety and compliance costs [14][15] 2. Supply-Demand Dynamics in General Aviation and Drone Sectors - The general aviation training market is oversupplied, with a projected 3,650 pilots for 1,982 aircraft by the end of 2024, indicating no significant overall shortage [21][31] - The number of drone operator licenses has increased over five times from 2018 to 2024, with a CAGR of 35%, although the actual demand for drone pilots is overstated [47][49] 3. Market Challenges and Transformations - The general aviation training market is expected to face a clearing and transformation due to a mismatch between supply and demand, with a training vacancy rate rising to 18.2% by 2024 [55][66] - The rapid expansion of drone training institutions, from fewer than 500 in early 2024 to 2,690 by mid-2025, raises concerns about potential oversupply in the industry [66][67]

Semiconductor Sector - Qualcomm announced the acquisition of Alphawave for $2.4 billion, aiming to enhance its data center capabilities and meet the growing demand for high-performance computing[9] - Micron Technology plans to increase its investment in U.S. manufacturing to $200 billion, creating approximately 90,000 jobs and expanding its semiconductor production capacity[16] - AMD launched the Instinct MI350 series GPUs, featuring a 35x improvement in inference capability compared to the previous MI300 series, utilizing a 3nm process technology[15] Automotive Electronics Sector - GAC Group unveiled the GOVY AirCab flying car, designed for low-altitude travel, with a lightweight carbon fiber structure and a 25-minute quick recharge capability[18] - NIO successfully established a battery swap network across 38 districts in Chongqing, with over 75 battery swap stations operational, achieving over 1 million battery swaps[24] - Leap Motor's C10 and T03 models officially entered the Hong Kong market, showcasing advanced technology and design aimed at young consumers[26] AI Sector - Cambridge University introduced the MTLA attention mechanism, achieving a 5x acceleration in inference speed while reducing memory usage to 1/8 of traditional methods[28] - The Chinese Academy of Sciences launched the "Enlightenment" system for fully automated chip design, achieving performance levels comparable to human experts[31] Metaverse Sector - Snap announced plans to release AR smart glasses, Specs, in 2026, featuring improved design and AI capabilities for enhanced user interaction[39] - Saphlux released a 0.13-inch full-color MicroLED display for AR applications, promising lower manufacturing costs and improved performance[41]

Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing likelihood of a weaker dollar due to misaligned monetary policies and challenges in the dollar's external circulation system [2][4][69] - It reviews seven significant periods of dollar depreciation since 1970, emphasizing the impact on various asset classes, particularly commodities and non-US equities [3][9][62] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the foreign exchange market, commodities, and non-US equity markets as the dollar weakens [4][62][70] Group 2 - The historical analysis indicates that during periods of dollar weakness, commodities consistently outperform, driven by a shift in investment towards tangible assets [63][62] - Non-US equity markets, particularly in emerging economies, tend to benefit from capital inflows and improved economic conditions during dollar depreciation phases [63][62] - The report identifies specific periods where asset performance varied significantly, with Asian markets often outperforming European markets during dollar weakness [14][23][35] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the potential for a new trend of dollar depreciation, driven by factors such as the narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other economies [69][70] - It notes that the eurozone is likely to benefit the most from the rebalancing of dollar-denominated assets, as fiscal expansion in the region is expected to enhance economic prospects [77][79] - The analysis suggests that as the dollar weakens, there will be an increase in hedging against dollar exposure, further supporting the appreciation of currencies from regions holding significant US assets [77][79]

Group 1: General Market Overview - The low-altitude economy is rapidly developing, with both manned and unmanned aircraft flourishing, highlighting the importance of flight training as a key infrastructure[12] - The flight training market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with risks of oversupply in both general aviation and drone training sectors[3] Group 2: Licensing Requirements - General aviation licenses are more stringent than drone licenses, with a four-tier management system established by CAAC for various pilot licenses[13] - Drone pilot licenses follow a tiered management structure, with simplified requirements for micro and light drones, while larger drones face stricter regulations[20] Group 3: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2024, there will be 3,650 general aviation pilots in China, corresponding to 1,982 aircraft, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation overall[30] - The number of drone training institutions surged from fewer than 500 in early 2024 to 2,690 by mid-2025, driven by rapid market demand growth[83] Group 4: Training Market Challenges - The general aviation training market is facing a supply surplus, with a training vacancy rate rising to 18.2% by 2024, indicating operational difficulties for some training institutions[70] - The drone training market is expanding quickly, but the supply growth is outpacing demand, raising concerns about potential oversupply risks in the future[69]

Market Pricing Status - The overall trading heat in the market has significantly increased, with the average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market rising from 12.2 trillion to 13.8 trillion yuan, and the turnover rate of the Shanghai Composite Index increasing to 82% [1][12][11] - The number of daily limit-up stocks has decreased to 66, with the maximum consecutive limit-up stocks being 7 [1][12] A-Share Liquidity Tracking - Foreign capital has turned to inflow, with a net inflow of 0.3 million USD into the A-share market [4][47] - The net inflow of financing funds reached 125.8 billion yuan, with the total margin balance increasing to 1.8 trillion yuan [4][30] - The issuance scale of new equity funds has decreased to 12.2 billion yuan [4][30] Industry Allocation Tracking - Financing funds have shown divergence in the pharmaceutical sector, with net inflows of 22.5 billion yuan in pharmaceuticals and 17.2 billion yuan in electronics, while there were net outflows of 15.6 billion yuan in agriculture and 2.8 billion yuan in power equipment [4][30] - Foreign capital has primarily flowed into the real estate sector, while food and beverage and power equipment sectors experienced net outflows [4][30] - The top three industries on the trading leaderboard were pharmaceuticals, machinery, and environmental protection [4][30] Global Fund Flow Tracking - Southbound funds have increased, with a net inflow of 154.6 billion yuan, placing it in the 62nd percentile since 2022 [3][4] - Major global markets have shown mixed performance, with the South Korean index leading with a 2.9% increase [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The end - of - quarter repatriation of bank wealth management is a definite trend, which may cause short - term disturbances to the credit bond market. However, considering the current support for the credit bond supply - demand structure and the expectation of loose funds around the quarter - end, the overall correction pressure on credit bonds is likely to be small. After the quarter - end, as the wealth management scale recovers, the demand for credit bond allocation may quickly recover [3][6][13]. - The short - term credit spread has been compressed to the lowest point this year, with relatively limited gaming space. Subsequently, the evolution of the asset shortage may gradually drive the duration market. The term spread has been trying to compress in the past two weeks, and there is still some room for compression of the medium - and long - term spread [3][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cross - Quarter Disturbance is Controllable, and the Duration Market is Gradually Emerging - Bank wealth management scale shows obvious characteristics of declining at the end of the quarter and rising at the beginning of the quarter, which is closely related to the end - of - quarter assessment pressure of banks and has an impact on credit spreads. At the end of the quarter, wealth management products need to repatriate some assets to meet regulatory indicators such as deposits, resulting in a decrease in wealth management scale and a weakening of credit bond allocation demand, which may lead to short - term selling pressure. After the quarter - end, as the wealth management allocation power recovers, the demand for credit bond allocation increases significantly, driving the credit spread to decline [3][6]. - In the second quarter, the net purchase scale of credit bonds by wealth management was not prominent, possibly related to the smooth valuation rectification. In April and May, the net purchase scale of credit bonds by wealth management was 51.1 billion yuan and 40.1 billion yuan respectively, the lowest in the same period in the past four years, with a year - on - year decline of 29.4% and 39.3%. On the contrary, bank wealth management bought a large number of certificate of deposit products in the second quarter, especially in May, with a net purchase scale of 261.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 68.2%. This change may be related to the valuation rectification and net value stabilization pressure of bank wealth management. In terms of institutional behavior, it shows that wealth management attaches more importance to the liquidity of positions and is more cautious in selecting credit bonds. Even if the repatriation scale exceeds the seasonality during the cross - quarter repatriation stage, the short - term selling pressure on credit bonds will be relatively controllable [3][8]. - In terms of supply, the supply scale of broad - based credit bonds in May this year was higher than that in previous years, and the month - on - month growth rate of issuance in June may be weaker than expected. The supply scale of broad - based credit bonds in May was 1.46 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27.4%. On the one hand, the issuance progress of bank secondary and perpetual bonds accelerated sharply in late April, and the issuance scale in May was close to 300 billion. On the other hand, due to the new policy of science and technology innovation bonds, there was a wave of concentrated issuance of science and technology innovation bonds in May, with an issuance of more than 360 billion yuan, the highest single - month issuance scale since 2022. Against the background of the relatively high - base supply in May this year, the month - on - month growth rate of credit bond issuance in June may be weaker than that in previous years, and the market impact caused by the increase in credit bond supply is limited [3][11]. 3.2 What Other Coupon Can be Explored Besides Lengthening the Duration? 3.2.1 Urban Investment Bonds - As of June 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding urban investment bonds was about 15.47 trillion yuan, including about 8.17 trillion yuan of public urban investment bonds, accounting for 53%. The scale of outstanding urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.3% was 2.97 trillion yuan (933.445 billion yuan of public bonds), accounting for 19.23% of the total urban investment scale [17]. - In public urban investment bonds, Qinghai, Guizhou, Liaoning, Yunnan, and Shaanxi have relatively high weighted average valuation yields, all above 2.2%. Among the top ten provinces in terms of the scale of outstanding public urban investment bonds, Shandong, Sichuan, and Chongqing have relatively high valuation yields. In other large - scale public urban investment bond provinces, the yields of products within 3 years are mostly below 2%. In terms of spread performance, Shanghai and Beijing have the lowest average spreads, and the spreads in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are around 40BP. Among the top ten provinces in terms of stock, Shandong, Chongqing, and Hunan have relatively high spreads [17]. - In private urban investment bonds, Guizhou and Yunnan have a weighted average valuation yield above 3%. Among the top ten provinces in terms of the scale of outstanding private urban investment bonds, Shandong, Henan, Chongqing, and Sichuan have relatively high valuation yields, about 2.3 - 2.4%. In other large - scale private urban investment bond provinces, the yields of products within 3 years are mostly below 2.2% [18]. 3.2.2 Financial Bonds - As of June 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding financial bonds was about 14.42 trillion yuan. In terms of duration distribution, the average valuation yields of insurance sub - bonds in each duration interval within 5 years are relatively high; the average yields of bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds within 3 years are below 2% [24]. - The scale of outstanding financial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 544.5 billion yuan, accounting for 3.8% of the total scale. Further divided by term, the scale of those with a valuation above 2.3% and a remaining term of less than 3 years is about 200.347 billion yuan, and the scale of those with a valuation above 2.3% and a remaining term of 3 - 5 years is about 340.12 billion yuan [24]. 3.2.3 Industrial Bonds - As of June 11, 2025, the scale of outstanding non - default industrial bonds was about 13.48 trillion yuan. The scale of outstanding bonds in the public utilities, non - bank finance, comprehensive, transportation, real estate, and building decoration industries exceeded one trillion yuan, among which the real estate and non - bank finance industries had relatively high average valuation yield levels [28]. - The scale of outstanding industrial bonds with a valuation above 2.3% is 1.5838 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.75% of the total scale. Considering both the stock scale and the proportion of high - valuation bonds, the real estate industry has the highest proportion of high - valuation bonds and the largest absolute scale, mainly concentrated in AAA products within 3 years (with a stock of about 289.6 billion yuan) [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4][11]. Core Insights - The development of AI, both domestically and internationally, is progressing steadily, with technological upgrades and price reductions for large models occurring simultaneously, leading to an accelerated adoption of AI applications [2][4]. - The report highlights the launch of OpenAI's o3-pro model, which outperforms Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro and Anthropic's Claude 4 Opus in various benchmarks, while also reducing its pricing by 80%, which is expected to significantly promote AI adoption [4]. - The release of the Doubao large model 1.6 introduces a novel pricing model based on input length, resulting in a 63% cost reduction compared to its predecessor, which is anticipated to further accelerate AI implementation across industries [4]. - Ant International is actively pursuing a stablecoin license in Hong Kong, indicating a positive outlook for the stablecoin market, especially with the support of major payment players [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks: Huada Jiutian, Dameng Data, Kingsoft Office, Newland, Tongxingbao, Saiyi Information, and Hehe Information, all rated as "Overweight" [4][5]. Performance Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the recommended stocks are provided, showing significant growth potential for the upcoming years [5]. - Huada Jiutian: EPS of 0.20 in 2024, PE of 588.3 [5] - Dameng Data: EPS of 5.44 in 2024, PE of 40.1 [5] - Kingsoft Office: EPS of 3.56 in 2024, PE of 76.1 [5] - Newland: EPS of 1.00 in 2024, PE of 29.2 [5] - Tongxingbao: EPS of 0.52 in 2024, PE of 31.4 [5] - Saiyi Information: EPS of 0.34 in 2024, PE of 76.1 [5] - Hehe Information: EPS of 4.93 in 2024, PE of 30.4 [5]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.13 重大项目接续落地，港股 IPO 同比增逾 7 成 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——券商投行业务月报（2025 年 5 月） | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 吴浩东(分析师) | 肖尧(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880524070001 | S0880525040115 | 本报告导读： A 股股权融资节奏边际上有所改善，港股持续活跃、同比提振显著，推荐企业客户 资源、专业服务能力以及跨境服务能力更具优势的头部券商。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 月 报 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 注：核心债券=公司债+企 业债+可转债 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 数据来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 注：口径为当月已披露的 重大重组事件 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of 56.60 CNY, indicating optimism about the company's performance as a leader in educational enterprise reform and its continuous earnings growth [3][10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in laser technology and has benefited from educational enterprise reforms, enhancing its operational vitality. It has a diversified business model encompassing communication, laser, sensing, and anti-counterfeiting applications [10][25]. - The company is expected to experience significant revenue growth driven by AI and the increasing demand for optical modules, particularly as a core supplier to major clients like Huawei [10][14]. Financial Summary - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 44.564 billion CNY, with a total share capital of 1,006 million shares [4]. - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 10,310 million CNY, 11,709 million CNY, 16,028 million CNY, 23,082 million CNY, and 27,933 million CNY respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 36.9% from 2024 to 2025 [9][19]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,007 million CNY in 2023A, increasing to 3,015 million CNY by 2027E, with a notable growth rate of 56.9% from 2024 to 2025 [9][19]. Business Segments - The laser processing equipment and intelligent manufacturing line is projected to generate 34.92 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.45% [14][19]. - The optical device segment is expected to achieve 39.75 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, marking a 27.79% increase, driven by advancements in AIGC applications [16][19]. - The sensitive components segment is anticipated to generate 36.68 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, reflecting a 12.93% growth, supported by strong demand in the automotive and consumer electronics sectors [17][19]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs both PE and PB valuation methods, concluding with a target price of 56.60 CNY based on a 5x PB valuation for 2025 [20][22]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is projected at 1.90 CNY, with a corresponding PE ratio of 35x, leading to a target price of 66.67 CNY based on PE valuation [21][22]. Historical Performance - The company has shown a consistent revenue growth trajectory, with a CAGR of 17.43% from 2003 to 2024, despite experiencing declines in 2012 and 2023 [33]. - The gross profit margin has improved significantly since the educational reform in 2021, with a projected gross margin of 21.55% for 2024 [39]. Strategic Positioning - The company has established itself as a key player in the laser technology sector, leveraging its roots in higher education and extensive R&D capabilities to drive innovation and market competitiveness [25][26]. - The completion of the educational enterprise reform in 2021 has positioned the company for strategic growth and expansion in both domestic and international markets [25][27].