Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [10][18] Core Views - The company has expanded its overall scale after acquiring Tongtuo Technology, and there is optimism about expanding new channels and regions while enhancing AI capabilities, indicating potential for future growth [2][3] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 6,518 million, projected to grow to 9,022 million in 2024 (+38.4%) and further to 10,972 million in 2025 (+21.6%) [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 332 million, expected to decline to 170 million in 2024 (-48.8%) but recover to 276 million in 2025 (+62.3%) [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.42 in 2024 and 0.68 in 2025, with a growth rate of 62% [4][10] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 33.9% in 2024, down 3.1 percentage points from the previous year [10] Market Data - The company's current stock price is 11.45, with a target price set at 14.89 [10][12] - The market capitalization is 4,635 million, with a 52-week price range of 9.77 to 19.52 [5][10] Business Segments - The company reported a revenue of 80.7 billion from cross-border e-commerce, growing by 41.6%, with significant contributions from various product categories [10] - The company is actively enhancing its operational efficiency through AI-driven solutions, which is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage in the market [10]

- The report includes high-frequency factors such as intraday skewness, downside volatility proportion, post-open buying intention proportion, post-open buying intention intensity, large order net buying proportion, large order net buying intensity, improved reversal factor, end-of-day transaction proportion, average single transaction outflow proportion, and large order-driven price increase factor[3][5][6] - Deep learning factors include GRU(50,2)+NN(10), residual attention LSTM(48,2)+NN(10), multi-granularity model with 5-day labels, and multi-granularity model with 10-day labels[3][5][6] - AI-enhanced portfolios are constructed based on deep learning factors, including CSI 500 AI-enhanced wide constraint portfolio, CSI 500 AI-enhanced strict constraint portfolio, CSI 1000 AI-enhanced wide constraint portfolio, and CSI 1000 AI-enhanced strict constraint portfolio[3][67][68] - The construction of high-frequency factors involves specific methodologies such as realized volatility decomposition and machine learning-based low-frequency application of high-frequency data[13][18][23] - Deep learning factors are built using models like GRU and LSTM combined with neural networks, and multi-granularity models are trained using bidirectional AGRU[57][60][62] - AI-enhanced portfolios optimize expected returns with constraints on stock weight, industry weight, market capitalization, and other financial metrics[67][68][69] - High-frequency factors show varying IC values, rank MAE, and multi-long-short returns across historical, 2025, and May data[6][7][9] - Deep learning factors demonstrate strong multi-long-short returns and excess returns, with GRU(50,2)+NN(10) achieving 17.68% multi-long-short return in 2025[3][9][57] - AI-enhanced portfolios deliver positive excess returns, with CSI 1000 AI-enhanced strict constraint portfolio achieving 10.89% excess return in 2025[3][10][88]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report expresses an optimistic outlook for Geely Automobile's performance in Q1 2025, driven by the launch of several key models, which supports a positive sales and operational performance forecast for the entire year [2] - The company's brand structure is considered reasonable and clear, with expectations for continued revenue and net profit growth as the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy is gradually implemented [7] - The report anticipates Geely's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 16.3 billion RMB, 18.2 billion RMB, and 23.7 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.62 RMB, 1.81 RMB, and 2.35 RMB [7] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, Geely's sales reached 704,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 48%, with revenue of 72.5 billion RMB, up 25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.67 billion RMB, reflecting a 264% increase year-on-year [7] - The company plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, with a sales target of 2.71 million units, including 1.5 million units from new energy vehicles [7] - The financial projections indicate a significant increase in revenue from 240.2 billion RMB in 2024 to 321.8 billion RMB in 2025, representing a growth rate of 34% [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent trends in the smart vehicle industry, including a significant investment in Kaal Power to accelerate the commercialization of autonomous heavy-duty trucks [4][18]. - The report notes fluctuations in the sales of new energy vehicles, with specific brands showing varying performance in the market [8][9]. - The lithium battery market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, particularly for battery-grade lithium carbonate, which is expected to continue [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Information Dispatch - **Weekly Sales Rankings**: In the second week of May, the top three new energy vehicle brands by sales were BYD (69,100 units, +16.53%), Volkswagen (45,900 units, +10.07%), and Toyota (31,500 units, -2.48%) [8]. - **New Car Releases**: New models released include NIO's EC6 and ES6, Dongfeng Fengshen's L7 electric version, and Great Wall's Wei brand Gaoshan 8 and 9 [9]. 2. Lithium Battery Information - **Price Trends**: As of May 16, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 64,480 CNY per ton, indicating a downward trend [10][11]. - **Material Prices**: The report provides a detailed table of lithium battery material prices, showing a general decline in prices for various materials, including lithium carbonate and iron phosphate [11]. 3. Investment and Financing Events - **Kaal Power Investment**: Kaal Power secured 300 million CNY in A+ round financing to enhance its autonomous heavy-duty truck operations, with a total operational mileage exceeding 20 million kilometers [4][18]. - **Anwen Technology Investment**: Anwen Technology received strategic investment from Guotou Investment to support its research and application in automotive cabin technology [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 25.37 CNY [6][13]. Core Views - The company has a solid industry position, and as the industry stabilizes, its performance is expected to improve. The first quarter losses have narrowed, and both the battery and polysilicon businesses are enhancing quality and efficiency [3][13]. - The company achieved a revenue of 91.994 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 33.9%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -7.039 billion CNY [5][13]. - The company is the top seller of battery cells, with a sales volume of 87.68 GW in 2024, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, and has maintained its position as the global leader in shipment volume for eight consecutive years [13]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to recover to 97.675 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 6.2% [5][14]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve to -2.745 billion CNY in 2025, with a significant recovery forecasted in subsequent years [5][14]. - The company's cash cost of production for polysilicon has decreased to 27,000 CNY per ton (excluding tax) [13]. Operational Highlights - The company has successfully integrated key equipment and technologies, leading to a reduction in comprehensive electricity consumption and silicon consumption [13]. - The company is advancing its technology roadmap, with plans to enhance the efficiency of its products and maintain a multi-technology development strategy [13].

Core Insights - The report suggests that the easing of the US-China tariff friction creates a favorable window for bullish investments, recommending a dual focus on "technology growth + consumer recovery" [1][16] - The report highlights that the market's response to tariff impacts has been relatively quick and fully priced in compared to previous trade tensions, indicating a more resilient market sentiment [13][12] Market Overview - Following the easing of tariff tensions, the equity market has shown signs of recovery, with major indices surpassing their levels from early April. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and the Wind All A Index have all exceeded their April 2 levels as of May 16 [4][9] - The report notes that the convertible bond market has rebounded quickly, with the median price recovering from 115 yuan on April 7 to 120.13 yuan, indicating improved valuation attractiveness compared to early April [14][15] Investment Strategy - The report recommends prioritizing convertible bonds with lower absolute prices, especially those with high export revenue exposure, to hedge against potential volatility in the market [16][18] - It emphasizes that the themes of self-sufficiency and domestic demand are strong investment lines, alongside the potential resurgence of investment opportunities in humanoid robots, AI, and low-altitude economy sectors as market risk appetite improves [1][18] Sector Performance - The report observes a divergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap indices, with large-cap indices performing better in the wake of tariff easing, while small-cap indices experienced some pullback [6][7] - The transportation sector has led gains in the wake of tariff easing, with financial sectors and domestic demand-related stocks also showing strong performance [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium and cobalt industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a return to weak realities from strong expectations in the cobalt and lithium markets, with prices rebounding before retreating [14][15]. - The easing of US-China trade relations is expected to buffer the downward trend in lithium prices, although the overall market remains cautious [14][15]. - Cobalt market dynamics are characterized by a tightening supply and a cautious outlook from industry players, with many adopting a wait-and-see approach [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium sector is experiencing a slight price decline, with the Wuxi 2507 contract down 1.57% to 62,600 CNY/ton, and the Guangxi 2507 contract down 1.94% to 61,800 CNY/ton [14]. - Lithium concentrate prices have decreased to 712 USD/ton, down 13 USD/ton from the previous period [14]. - Recommended stocks for overweight positions include Zhongmin Resources, Yahua Group, Cangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Keda Manufacturing, and Tibet Mining [14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes significant developments in the industry, including a major discovery at the Tamarack copper-nickel project in Minnesota [19]. - The International Cobalt Institute predicts a shift to a cobalt shortage by the early 2030s, driven by demand growth outpacing supply [19]. - Salt Lake Co. has signed a project cooperation letter indicating a potential investment of around 300 million USD in Highfield Resources [19]. 3. Key Data: New Energy Material Production, Imports, and Metal Prices - Domestic production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide saw a month-on-month decline in April [20]. - Lithium carbonate production decreased by 7% month-on-month but increased by 40% year-on-year [22]. - Cobalt sulfate production increased by 11% month-on-month and 48% year-on-year [23]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 2.15% to a range of 66,100-64,600 CNY/ton [57]. 4. Listed Company Profit Forecasts - Ganfeng Lithium is projected to have a PE ratio of 86.06 for 2025, while Tianqi Lithium is rated cautiously with a PE of 58.30 for 2025 [94]. - Huayou Cobalt is rated for an overweight position with a PE of 11.79 for 2025 [94].

Group 1: New Stock Performance - In the second week of May, the average first-day increase of newly listed stocks converged to around 100%, with two new stocks contributing to A/B class investors' single account profits of 96,000 / 95,700 CNY[39] - The new stock index and the near-term new stock index rose by 1.63% and 3.87% respectively, leading the market[6] - The new stock index's deviation from the Shanghai Composite Index decreased to 143.63%[8] Group 2: Market Trends and Trading Activity - The trading activity in the new stock sector continued to rise, with turnover rates for the new stock index and near-term new stock index increasing by 1.75 percentage points and 1.60 percentage points respectively[18] - The total market capitalization of newly released stocks in the second week of May was 14.09 billion CNY, with a significant drop in the expected new stock unlock market value to only 1.90 billion CNY in the third week[35] - The overall average increase of 46 newly listed stocks in the past six months was 3.04%, indicating a sustained upward trend in the new stock sector[44] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - As of May 16, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the new stock index was 51.3X, while the near-term new stock index was 34.9X, reflecting a divergence in valuation changes[13] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for the new stock index was 4.1X, corresponding to a historical percentile of 70.3%[16] - The net active selling in the new stock sector was 1.84 billion CNY, with institutional investors net buying 185 million CNY during the same period[24]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [9][16]. Core Views - Short-term performance is significantly under pressure, but long-term growth potential is promising. The target price has been raised, with the current stock price corresponding to a 2025 PE of 38X [3][9]. - The company is expected to face challenges in 2024, with a projected revenue of 3.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4% [9][10]. - The report highlights a decline in same-store sales and an increase in store closure rates due to weak macro demand, with an estimated increase in closure rates for 2024-2025 [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company show a decline in 2025, with an estimated EPS of 0.57 yuan, down from a previous estimate of 0.98 yuan [9][10]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 22.95%, with a net profit margin of 10.33% [9][10]. - The balance sheet indicates total assets of 3.33 billion yuan and total liabilities of 1.32 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a net asset value of 2.01 billion yuan [4][10]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a 52-week price range of 13.43 to 24.15 yuan, with a current market capitalization of 8.96 billion yuan [3][9]. - The report notes a relative performance of -10% over the last three months compared to the index, indicating underperformance [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Tencent Holdings [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Tencent's revenue and profit exceeded expectations, driven by the upgrade of its e-commerce division and the impact of AI on effective advertising and evergreen games, reinforcing capital expenditures [3] Financial Summary - For FY25Q1, Tencent achieved revenue of 180 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, surpassing market expectations of 175.7 billion RMB. Adjusted net profit reached 61.3 billion RMB, up 22.0% year-on-year, also exceeding the market forecast of 59.7 billion RMB. The gross margin was 55.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.2 percentage points [7][10] - The financial outlook for 2025E projects revenue of 725.3 billion RMB, with adjusted net profit expected to be 249.0 billion RMB, reflecting a slight upward revision from previous estimates [7] Business Segments Performance - Value-added services revenue reached 92.1 billion RMB in FY25Q1, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, with gaming revenue at 59.5 billion RMB, up 24% year-on-year. Domestic and international gaming revenues were 42.9 billion RMB and 16.6 billion RMB, respectively, showing increases of 24% and 22% [7][30] - Marketing services generated 31.9 billion RMB in revenue, a year-on-year growth of 20.2%, driven by enhanced commercialization capabilities of platforms like Video Number and WeChat Search [7][32] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew by 5% year-on-year, reaching 54.9 billion RMB [7][38] Strategic Insights - The report emphasizes that Tencent, as the largest social traffic entry point, is expected to leverage AI to reconstruct platform value. The integration of AI technology is anticipated to enhance the overall growth quality and sustainability of the business [7][39]