瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.28」 「 周度要点小结」 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动。截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1600-1640元/吨， 均价环比上涨5元/吨。短时工厂将挺价为主，行情暂时僵持观望，不排除成交重心继续小幅上移。 行情展望：部分装置检修使得国内尿素产量小幅下降，下周预计4家企业装置计划停车、4家停车 企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，产量预计小幅波动。近日东北储备需求采购较 为集中，但随着前期适当的补充，采购量或有所放缓。复合肥开工环比提升，企业陆续排产冬储 肥，预计短期复合肥产能利用率稳中有升。随着新一批配额的落地，出口需求逐渐增量。近期因 储备需求的继续推进，复合肥等下游终端补仓影响，以东北、华北为主要区域企业出货加快，尿 素企业库存继续下降，考虑到储备需求推进以及部分出口发运预期，短期尿素库存仍有小幅去库 趋势。 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1700区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 目录 1、 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 沪铜市场周报 需求淡季预期向好，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡偏强，周线涨跌幅为+2.07%，振幅2.19%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价87430元/吨。 后市展望：基本面原料端，铜精矿加工费仍运行于负值区间，原料供给持续紧张，对铜价成本支撑逻辑仍在。供给方面， 经历前期集中检修后，冶炼产能或再度释放，但原料端铜精矿、废铜供应紧张，对产能将有一定限制，故国内精铜供给量 仅小幅度回升。需求方面，消费淡季影响逐步显现，加之铜价偏高位运行，对下游消费有一定抑制，在此背景下，下游采 买情绪或将偏向谨慎，多采取刚需补货策略。库存方面，社会库存整体保持中低水位运行，但由于消费淡季的影响，或有 一定库存积累。应用消费方面，国内电力基础设施临近年末赶工，加之新能源汽车行业的年终冲量，在一定程度上为需求 进行托底。总体来看，沪铜基本面或处于供给小幅回升、需求受淡季影响略收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market had significant long - short divergence, and rubber prices fluctuated. The import rubber market was mainly for traders to roll and exchange positions. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened again after the buying volume decreased due to the positive spread arbitrage. The futures market continued to fluctuate, and the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly within the range following the market. The willingness of holders to quote was average, and the terminal buyers restocked in moderation at low prices, with light actual transactions [8]. - In the near future, raw materials in Yunnan's production areas were mostly stable with relatively sufficient supplies. In Hainan's production areas, the weather was okay, but yellowing and leaf - falling phenomena appeared in the central and eastern regions, which restricted the overall raw material output. Local processing plants faced high production costs and mainly purchased raw materials as needed. Recently, the cumulative inventory increase at Qingdao Port has expanded month - on - month, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. Overseas shipments arriving at the port and entering the warehouse remained at a high level, but downstream enterprises were mainly in a wait - and - see mood and had low inventory - building willingness, which led to a large increase in the total inventory at Qingdao Port [8]. - In terms of demand, some semi - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance this week, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire enterprises that had been under maintenance resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate recovered. Next week, as the start - up of maintenance enterprises gradually returns to the normal level, it will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to recover, but some enterprises have maintenance arrangements at the end of this month and the beginning of next month, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15700 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12200 - 12700 in the short term [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The natural rubber market had long - short divergence this week, with rubber prices fluctuating. The import rubber market focused on position rolling and exchanging. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened. The futures market was volatile, and the spot quotes of domestic natural rubber adjusted slightly. The trading volume was light [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan's raw materials were stable, while Hainan's output was restricted. Qingdao Port's inventory increased significantly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance this week, and full - steel tire enterprises resumed work. Next week, the capacity utilization rate will recover but be limited by future maintenance plans [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15000 - 15700, and the nr2601 contract between 12200 - 12700 in the short term [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 1.12%. The main contract price of 20 - rubber fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decrease of 0.08% [11]. - **Spread**: As of November 28th, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 35, and the spread between 20 - rubber 1 - 2 was - 15 [23]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 28th, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 41400 tons, an increase of 1800 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 51307 tons, an increase of 1108 tons from last week [29]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of November 27th, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14850 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [33]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis**: As of November 27th, the 20 - rubber basis was 789 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 680 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week [41] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Price and Processing Profit**: As of November 27th, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 57 (+0) Thai baht/kg; the cup lump was 52.95 (+0) Thai baht/kg. As of November 28th, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 27 US dollars/ton, compared with 4.5 US dollars/ton last week [44]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of November 27th, the latex price in Yunnan was 14100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [47]. 3.3.2 Import - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 51.08 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 522.81 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [51]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of November 23rd, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63 tons, or 3.60%. The bonded area inventory was 7.19 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 39.7 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [54]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of November 27th, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [57]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 65.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05 and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, China's cumulative tire exports were 704.38 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 22.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 272.66 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 39.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%; from January to October, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 402.65 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [60]. - **Domestic Demand**: In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22% [63]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis There is no information about option market analysis in the provided content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the resistance level at 305,000 yuan/ton. The market shows a bullish atmosphere with increasing volume, open interest, and price. However, the downstream has low acceptance of current high prices and is mostly in a wait - and - see state. There are still concerns about tin ore supply, and smelting production is restricted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 302,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,320 yuan/ton. The closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai Tin is - 360 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price is 38,090 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 395 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 54,843 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 10,116 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,812 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 943 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,125 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,229 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of tin is 6,219 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 34 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 301,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 302,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,870 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 590 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 86 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 49 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 289,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 293,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 194,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) is 1.2454 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1361 million tons. The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, but some people point out an increased risk of slower economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest in seven months. The initial value of US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month as expected, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9% more than expected [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Situation - The first batch of reopened mines in Myanmar's Wa State has entered the production capacity ramp - up period. However, two tin mines in Malaysia have suspended production, and the production in Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly. Africa is about to enter the rainy season, so there are still concerns about tin ore supply. Indonesia's refined tin exports decreased significantly in October, alleviating the previous concerns about supply growth. In the smelting end, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level, so the production of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, there is only a small amount of rigid demand procurement, and the downstream has a low acceptance of current high prices and is basically in a wait - and - see state. The domestic inventory has increased slightly, with a spot premium of 200 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has risen [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has increased significantly. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for warehousing remain at a high level, but downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mood with low stocking willingness. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will gradually recover next week, but the increase will be limited due to some enterprises' maintenance plans. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14,900 - 15,600 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,800 - 12,600 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,280 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,205 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The positions of both contracts decreased, with the main Shanghai rubber contract's position down 9,867 hands and the main 20 - number rubber contract's position down 2,617 hands [2] Spot Market - The price of Shanghai market state - owned whole latex is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Shanghai market Vietnam 3L is 15,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,825 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.91 Thai baht/kg, down 0.46 Thai baht; the price of rubber sheet is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.42 million pieces, down 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 51.68 million pieces, down 8.57 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.18%, down 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.04%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.29%, down 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.3%, down 0.25 percentage points [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.60%. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.64 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, a month - on - month increase of 0.71 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.68 percentage points [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 0 玉米淀粉月间价差(1-3):(日,元/吨) | 2243 -36 | 8 吨) | 2572 -11 | 21 -7 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -29094 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 968502 | | 243202 | 1454 | | 期货市场 | -16250 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -182690 | | -33837 | 2936 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) -3000 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 62515 | 手) | 10195 | -500 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) | 369 | 4 | | | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):CBOT玉米 ...

Report Summary Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Some domestic urea production decreased slightly due to partial device maintenance. Next week, 4 enterprises plan to stop production and 4 may resume, with production expected to fluctuate slightly considering short - term faults [3] - Northeast reserve demand procurement was concentrated recently, but the purchase volume may slow down after appropriate replenishment [3] - Compound fertilizer's start - up rate increased month - on - month, and enterprises are scheduling winter - storage fertilizer production. Short - term capacity utilization is expected to be stable with a slight increase [3] - With new export quotas, export demand is increasing. Due to reserve demand and downstream replenishment, urea enterprise inventory continued to decline, and short - term inventory is expected to continue to decrease slightly [3] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1690 in the short term [3] Directory Summaries 1. Futures Market - Zhengzhou urea's main contract closing price was 1668 yuan/ton, up 14; 1 - 5 spread was - 59 yuan/ton, up 5; main contract position was 230913 lots, up 1578; top 20 net position was - 27809, down 369; exchange warehouse receipts were 7181, down 209 [3] - The main contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton, down 24 [3] 2. Spot Market - Domestic spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were between 1620 - 1650 yuan/ton, with some prices unchanged and some down 10 yuan/ton [3] - FOB Baltic was 362.5 dollars/ton, and FOB China main port was 400 dollars/ton, both unchanged [3] 3. Industry Situation - Port inventory was 100,000 tons, up 18,000 tons; enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons [3] - Urea enterprise start - up rate was 83.91%, down 0.17%; daily production was 202,900 tons, up 6,200 tons [3] - Urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; monthly production was 5.87127 million tons, up 132,600 tons [3] 4. Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer start - up rate was 34.61%, up 4.29; melamine start - up rate was 62.2%, up 4.72 [3] - Compound fertilizer weekly profit was 30 yuan/ton, down 25; melamine's weekly profit from purchasing urea externally was 70 yuan/ton, down 63 [3] - Monthly compound fertilizer production was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; weekly melamine production was 32,000 tons, up 2,800 tons [3] 5. Industry News - As of November 26, enterprise inventory decreased by 73,300 tons week - on - week, a 5.10% decline [3] - As of November 27, port inventory was 100,000 tons, unchanged. With the end of legal inspections, port inventory may increase [3] - As of November 27, production was 1.417 million tons, down 0.34 million tons week - on - week; capacity utilization was 83.71%, down 0.20% [3] 6. Suggested Attention Attention should be paid to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily production, and start - up rate on Thursday [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term apple futures price is expected to remain at a high level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 9,529 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1,777; the main contract position is 10,687 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is 116,106 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 21,069 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70, semi - second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4.2 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, first - grade goods) is 4 yuan/jin, all with a week - on - week change of 0 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 168.34 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.4 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.07 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg; the national apple cold - storage total inventory is 766.75 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.41 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.54, with no week - on - week change; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.58, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 80,000 tons, with an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly export amount of apples year - on - year is - 14.3%; the monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is - 5.8%; the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.71 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.37 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.78 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22 yuan/kg; the average daily early - morning arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.2 vehicles, with no week - on - week change; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 16 vehicles, with no week - on - week change; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 23.8 vehicles, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 1.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 15.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 17.51%, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.27% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of November 27, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas is 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons from last week; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 54.11%, a decrease of 0.18% from last week; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 58.44%, a decrease of 0.66% from last week; apples in Shandong and Shanxi are still being stored, with ground transactions gradually ending and limited inventory transactions; in Shandong, ground transactions are in the final stage, with some areas like Qixia still having a small amount of storage, and some special varieties like Cream Fuji ending their storage; in Shaanxi, storage is basically over, and the area has started to transfer to outbound storage, with northern Shaanxi mainly supplying self - stored goods by merchants, some small - scale goods for foreign trade channels, and southern Shaanxi mainly purchasing from fruit farmers, with better transactions than in northern Shaanxi, and part of the goods going to the second - and third - level markets and part being purchased by Shandong merchants; the performance of the sales area market is average, and attention should be paid to the substitution effect of citrus fruits on the market [2]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - On November 27, the manganese silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5626, down 0.04%. Fundamentally, inventory rebounded rapidly, production continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks. The short - term direction is to be treated as oscillating weakly. [2] - On November 27, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5390, down 0.44%. In terms of supply and demand, market transactions were mainly for terminal rigid - demand restocking, prices declined, and inventory decreased this period. The short - term direction is to be treated as oscillating weakly. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,626.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,390.00 yuan/ton, down 26.00. [2] - The SM futures contract position was 737,538.00 lots, up 3,127.00; the SF futures contract position was 486,451.00 lots, up 24,144.00. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon was - 8,840.00 lots, up 2,975.00; the net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon was - 16,149.00 lots, up 987.00. [2] - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 50.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was - 36.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00. [2] - The SM warehouse receipts were 20,989.00 pieces, down 200.00; the SF warehouse receipts were 10,810.00 pieces, down 163.00. [2] Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,250.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,100.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00. [2] - The price of Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,180.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00. [2] - The manganese silicon index average was 5,515.75 yuan/ton, down 63.25; the SF main contract basis was - 210.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00. [2] - The SM main contract basis was - 196.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00. [2] Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block: Tianjin Port was 32.00 yuan/ton degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory was 426.30 million tons, unchanged. [2] Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operation rate was 39.13%, down 0.46; the ferrosilicon enterprise operation rate was 33.81%, down 1.03. [2] - The manganese silicon supply was 196,910.00 tons, down 2,660.00; the ferrosilicon supply was 108,300.00 tons, down 800.00. [2] - The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 363,000.00 tons, up 13,500.00; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 73,050.00 tons, down 8,310.00. [2] - The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 15.70 days, down 0.23; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 15.67 days, up 0.15. [2] - The demand for manganese silicon from five major steel types was 121,407.00 tons, up 2,818.00; the demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19,543.00 tons, up 469.20. [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills was 82.17%, down 0.62; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.56%, down 0.26. [2] - The crude steel output was 7,199.70 million tons, down 149.31. [2] Industry News - The European Central Bank Chief Economist said that the world economy is undergoing profound changes beyond the impact of US tariffs, and Europe must start to find growth drivers locally. [2] - Pentagon believes Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD should be included in the list of enterprises assisting the Chinese military. [2] - From January to October, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan. [2] - Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. [2] Viewpoint Summary - For manganese silicon, on November 27, the 2601 contract fell 0.04%, the inventory rebounded rapidly, production declined slightly, and the short - term direction is oscillating weakly. [2] - For ferrosilicon, on November 27, the 2603 contract fell 0.44%, market transactions were mainly for rigid - demand restocking, prices declined, and the short - term direction is oscillating weakly. [2]

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