1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand of rebar are weak, but the positive macro - expectations support steel prices. The RB2601 contract may fluctuate and strengthen, and it is advisable to consider buying call options [7][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3110 yuan/ton (+53 yuan/ton), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3290 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton) [5]. - Rebar production decreased to 206.08 million tons (-1.88 million tons), a year - on - year decrease of 21.8 million tons [5]. - Apparent demand declined to 227.94 million tons (-2.85 million tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.59 million tons [5]. - Factory and social inventories continued to decline. The total rebar inventory was 531.48 million tons (-21.86 million tons), a year - on - year increase of 83.84 million tons [5]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week and 16.89 percentage points from the same period last year [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the market's expectation for the December meeting fluctuates between "interest rate cut" and "maintaining the status quo", and the probability of an interest rate cut has risen to about 80%. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission will govern enterprises' disorderly price competition [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: Rebar weekly production decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 45.18% and an EAF steel开工率 of 69.13%. Downstream demand was average, with a decline in apparent demand but a continued decrease in inventory [7]. - **Cost aspect**: Although the fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, the macro - expectations are positive, and the ore price remains strong. Coking coal and coke continue to weaken [7]. - **Technical aspect**: The RB2601 contract fluctuated and strengthened. The daily K - line broke through the MA60 moving average pressure upwards, and the lower moving averages were relatively dense with strong support [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the futures price fluctuated and strengthened. The RB2601 contract was stronger than the RB2605 contract. On the 28th, the price difference was - 7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 34 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's rebar warehouse receipts were 59519 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5301 tons. The net short position of the top 20 in the rebar futures contract was 54221 lots, a decrease of 28612 lots from the previous week [20]. 3.2.3 Spot Price and Basis - On November 28, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade rebar 20mmHRB400 was 3290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3290 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was weaker than the futures price. On the 28th, the basis was 180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Furnace Charge Prices - On November 28, the spot price of 61% Australian Macfarlane ore at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [30]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore Arrivals and Inventories - From November 17 - 23, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2939.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 569.6 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2817.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 548.2 million tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1438.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397.0 million tons [35]. - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15901.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 166.37 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 344.06 million tons, an increase of 0.67 million tons [35]. 3.3.3 Coking Plant Data - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.02% (+0.92%), coke daily output was 50.40 (+0.65), coke inventory was 45.21 (+1.77), total coking coal inventory was 860.93 (-28.29), and the available days of coking coal were 12.8 days (-0.6 days) [39]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Crude Steel Production**: In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [43]. - **Rebar Production**: On November 27, the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises was 206.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.88 million tons from the previous week and 21.8 million tons from the same period last year [45]. - **EAF Steel**: The average starting rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 69.13%, unchanged from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 0.79 percentage points [48]. - **Rebar Inventory**: On November 27, the in - factory inventory of rebar in 137 building material production enterprises was 146.73 million tons, a decrease of 6.59 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.48 million tons from the same period last year. The social inventory of rebar in 35 major cities was 384.75 million tons, a decrease of 15.27 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 82.36 million tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 531.48 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.86 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 83.84 million tons [51]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Real Estate**: From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The housing construction area was 6529.39 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [54]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to October 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 13.8%, water transportation investment increased by 9.4%, and railway transportation investment increased by 3.0% [54]. 3.5 Options Market - Considering the decline in rebar production, the decrease in downstream demand, and the positive macro - expectations supporting steel prices, it is advisable to consider buying call options [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, with inventory continuing to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythms [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated strongly, with a rise of +5.93% and an amplitude of 10.85%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 96,420 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macroeconomic Policy**: Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to promote consumption, aiming to optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In the raw material segment, lithium prices are relatively good, driving up the price of lithium ore. Mines are more willing to sell, and smelters are more active in purchasing. The supply of domestic lithium carbonate is expected to increase, while the demand side is also supported by the peak consumption season of downstream battery materials, the boost in pre - holiday car - buying enthusiasm due to the subsidy policy change for new energy vehicles next year, and the significant increase in the energy storage industry [6]. - **Trading Advice**: Conduct short - term long trades with a light position at low prices and control risks [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 96,420 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,400 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,860 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,660 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,750 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1,450 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 2,670 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 3,950 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was $1,220/ton, a weekly increase of $10/ton [20]. - **Lithium Mica and Phosphorus - Lithium - Aluminum Stone**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 3,894 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The average price of phosphorus - lithium - aluminum stone was 10,525 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 425 yuan/ton [25]. 4. Industry Supply - **Imports and Exports**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, a 21.86% increase from September and a 2.95% year - on - year increase. The monthly export volume was 245.912 tons, a 63.06% increase from September and a 17.93% year - on - year decrease [30]. - **Production**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 51,530 tons, a 9.31% increase from September and a 62.15% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a 5% decrease from the previous month and a 32% year - on - year decrease [30]. 5. Downstream Demand - **Hexafluorophosphate Lithium and Electrolyte**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 180,000 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 5,000 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,900 tons, a 6.98% increase from September and a 41.32% year - on - year increase [33]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate was 39,100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 266,880 tons, an 8.36% increase from September and a 45.92% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 64% [38]. - **Ternary Materials**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 62,020 tons, a 1.77% decrease from September and a 15.95% year - on - year increase. The monthly operating rate was 52%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of 811 - type, 622 - type, and 523 - type ternary materials remained stable [41]. - **Lithium Manganate**: As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,300 tons, a 3.83% increase from September and a 3.65% year - on - year decrease. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 36,000 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton [46]. - **Lithium Cobaltate**: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 343,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of October 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,790 tons, a 4.71% increase from September and a 116.01% year - on - year increase [49]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of October 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 46.75%. The monthly production was 1,772,000 vehicles, a 9.59% increase from the previous month, and the monthly sales were 1,715,000 vehicles, a 6.92% increase from the previous month. The cumulative export volume was 2.014 million vehicles, a 90.36% year - on - year increase [52][56]. 6. Options Market - Based on the option parity theory and the performance of at - the - money contracts, combined with the fundamental situation, it is recommended to construct a short straddle option to short volatility. The premium of the synthetic underlying is - 0.01, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai tin market is expected to fluctuate upward, with attention on the resistance levels between 305,000 and 310,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.73% and an amplitude of 5.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 305,040 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - aspect**: The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in October decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months [5]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: - **Supply**: Domestic tin ore imports are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume is still low. The supply disruption in Congo (Kinshasa) has increased supply concerns. The output of refined tin has rebounded, but due to the shortage of tin ore raw materials and low processing fees, the output is expected to be limited [5]. - **Import**: Indonesia's export volume in October was far lower than expected, and the domestic import is in a loss state, so the import volume of tin is expected to decline [5]. - **Demand**: Some downstream and terminal enterprises made small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases due to concerns about the continuous rise of tin prices, while others remained on the sidelines. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the spot premium dropped to - 300 yuan/ton; LME inventories increased slightly, and the spot premium rose [5]. - **Technical - aspect**: The price rose with increasing volume and positions, and the bullish sentiment heated up [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 304,060 yuan/ton, up 13,320 yuan/ton or 4.58% from November 21. As of November 27, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 37,925 US dollars/ton, up 890 US dollars/ton or 2.4% from November 21 [7][10]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of November 28, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.57, an increase of 0.02 from November 21. As of November 27, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.95, up 0.06 from November 20 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1,766 lots, a decrease of 79 lots from November 24. The position of Shanghai tin was 99,560 lots, an increase of 20,989 lots or 26.71% from November 21 [18]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Supply - side - **Tin Ore Import and Output**: In October 2025, the import volume of tin ore concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 103,019.35 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. In October 2025, the output of refined tin was 15,618 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [24][25]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On November 28, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 27; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from November 27 [30]. - **Refined Tin Import**: As of November 28, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 6,821.52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,802.72 yuan/ton from November 21. In October 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 19,034.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.79%. In October 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1480.43 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.56%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 18,574.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.44% [35][36]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,125 tons, an increase of 60 tons or 1.96% from November 20. As of November 28, 2025, the total tin inventory was 6,359 tons, an increase of 130 tons or 2.09% from last week. The tin inventory for futures was 6,263 tons, an increase of 357 tons or 6.04% from November 21 [42]. Demand - side - **Semiconductor Index**: On November 26, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 6,899.46, up 229.43 or 3.44% from November 19. From January to October 2025, the output of integrated circuits was 386.6 billion pieces, an increase of 33.60064 billion pieces or 9.52% compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Tin - plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the output of tin - plated sheets was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons or 10% from September. The export volume of tin - plated sheets was 222,589.82 tons, an increase of 24,965.4 tons or 12.63% from September [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coils may fluctuate strongly. The Fed's expected rate cut in December and China's governance of disorderly corporate price competition on the macro - front, along with increased hot - rolled coil production, slightly reduced but resilient terminal demand, and positive macro expectations, support steel prices. Attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of November 28, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton (+32), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton (+0). - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 319.01 million tons (+3), a year - on - year increase of 12.92 million tons. - Apparent demand declined. The current period's apparent demand was 320.22 million tons (-4.2), a year - on - year increase of 3.13 million tons. - Factory inventory remained flat, and social inventory decreased. The total inventory was 400.9 million tons (-1.21), a year - on - year increase of 95.18 million tons. - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 16.89 percentage points from last year [5]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, market expectations for the December meeting fluctuate between "rate cut" and "maintain unchanged". After Williams and Waller supported a rate cut, the market probability of a rate cut has risen to about 80%. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on cost determination for disorderly price competition. - **Supply - demand aspect**: The weekly production of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 81.49%, higher than the same period last year. Terminal demand slightly declined, but the apparent demand remained at 3.2 million tons, higher than the same period last year, and inventory decreased. - **Cost aspect**: Although the fundamentals of iron ore are generally in a state of loose supply, due to positive macro expectations, ore prices remain strong. Coking coal and coke continue to weaken. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2601 contract fluctuated strongly, with the daily K - line above multiple moving averages and breaking through the 3300 mark. The MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are running near the 0 axis, and the red column is stable [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures Price - This week, the HC2601 contract was range - bound. The price of the HC2601 contract was stronger than that of the HC2605 contract. On the 28th, the price difference was 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2.2. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On November 28, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 141,932 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,156 tons. - On November 28, the net position of the top 20 in the hot - rolled coil futures contract was a net short position of 63,178 contracts, an increase of 3,385 contracts from the previous week [19]. 3.2.3. Spot Price - On November 28, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3318 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton. - This week, the spot price of hot - rolled coils was weaker than the futures price. On the 28th, the basis was 18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 32 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3. Upstream Market Conditions 3.3.1. Furnace Charge Prices - On November 28, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/dry ton. - On November 28, the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0 yuan/ton [31]. 3.3.2. Ore Arrival and Shipment - From November 17 to 23, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.784 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38 billion tons. The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 26.374 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.713 billion tons. - From November 17 to 23, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 29.395 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.696 billion tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 28.171 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.482 billion tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.383 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.97 billion tons [37]. 3.3.3. Iron Ore Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 159.0122 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6637 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4406 million tons, an increase of 0.0067 million tons. - On November 27, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 1.1476 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.2478 million tons [41]. 3.3.4. Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.02%, an increase of 0.92%. The daily coke output was 504,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons. The coke inventory was 452,100 tons, an increase of 177,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.6093 million tons, a decrease of 0.2829 million tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.8 days, a decrease of 0.6 days [45]. 3.4. Industry Conditions 3.4.1. Supply - side: Steel Export and Production - In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, China's crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. - In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imports were 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; the cumulative imports were 5.041 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [48]. 3.4.2. Supply - side: Hot - Rolled Coil Production - On November 28, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.18 percentage points. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.016 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0081 million tons. - On November 27, the weekly production of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 3.1901 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last week and an increase of 0.1295 million tons from the same period last year [52]. 3.4.3. Supply - side: Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - On November 27, the in - factory inventory of hot - rolled coils of 37 hot - rolled coil production enterprises was 780,200 tons, an increase of 0 tons from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 3,700 tons. The social inventory of 33 major cities was 3.2288 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.9555 million tons. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.9518 million tons [57]. 3.5. Downstream Conditions 3.5.1. Automobile Industry - From January to October 2025, automobile production and sales were 24.466 million and 24.624 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and 2.7% respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.779 million and 9.75 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33% and 33.9% respectively. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 39.6% of the total sales of new vehicles [60]. 3.5.2. Home Appliance Industry - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The production of household refrigerators was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The production of household washing machines was 101.078 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures fluctuated and rose this week. The international corn market price is under pressure, but the domestic corn market is supported by factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight transportation capacity, increased processing consumption, and strong procurement by enterprises. The corn futures price is generally strong and volatile, and investors should be cautious about chasing up [6]. - Corn starch futures also oscillated and closed higher. Although the supply - side pressure increases due to sufficient raw material supply and rising industry operating rates, the downstream demand is good, inventory has decreased, and the starch futures price has risen in sync with the corn market, with caution advised for chasing up [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed at 2,244 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: International supply pressure is high, while in the domestic market, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight transportation, and increased consumption support the price. The futures price is strong and volatile, and cautious chasing is recommended [6]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2601 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2,566 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply - side pressure increases, but downstream demand is good, inventory has decreased, and the futures price has risen in sync with the corn market, with caution advised for chasing up [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Price Trends and Position Changes - Corn futures' January contract oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 959,620 hands, an increase of 10,180 hands from last week. Corn starch futures' January contract also oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 238,140 hands, an increase of 1,212 hands from last week [14]. 3.2.2. Net Positions of the Top Twenty - The net position of the top twenty in corn futures this week was - 202,716, compared with - 108,473 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions. The net position of the top twenty in starch futures was - 33,782, compared with - 43,094 last week, showing a slight decrease in net short positions [20]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 60,215, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 0 [24]. 3.2.4. Spot Prices and Basis Trends - As of November 27, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,325.29 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active January contract of corn and the spot average price was + 81 yuan/ton [32]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,650 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton, with a slight increase this week. The basis between the January contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 84 yuan/ton [36]. 3.2.5. Inter - month Spread Changes - The 1 - 3 spread of corn was + 5 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of starch was - 9 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [42]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread Changes - The spread between the January contracts of starch and corn was 322 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread Changes - As of November 27, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,506.44 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,325.29 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 181.15 yuan/ton. In the 48th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 601 yuan/ton, an increase of 147 yuan/ton compared with last week [56]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side**: - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 28.4 tons, an increase of 1.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 31.5 tons, a decrease of 4.00 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 115.6 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 74.4 tons, an increase of 34.40 tons week - on - week [46]. - As of November 27, the overall progress of domestic corn sales was 30%, a 3% increase from November 20, and a 3% increase compared with the same period last year [58]. - In October 2025, China's corn import volume was 35.90 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06% and a month - on - month increase of 30.25 tons [62]. - As of November 27, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.83 days, an increase of 1.60 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.10%, but a year - on - year decrease of 4.72% [66]. - **Demand Side**: - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.80 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 2.9%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.2% [70]. - As of November 21, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 135.9 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets was - 234.63 yuan/head [74]. - As of November 27, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 3 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 500 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 579 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 252 yuan/ton [79]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side**: - As of November 26, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 269.8 tons, a decrease of 1.06% [84]. - From November 20 to November 26, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 62.46 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 32.34 tons, an increase of 0.84 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 61.38%, an increase of 1.59% from last week. As of November 26, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 106.9 tons, a decrease of 4.00 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 3.61%, a monthly decrease of 5.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.04% [88]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of November 28, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2601 contract of corn was 11.05%, a rebound of 2.63% from 8.42% last week. The implied volatility rebounded significantly this week and was at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.28」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2601合约短线预计在2080-2170区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 甲醇期货价格走势 郑州甲醇期货价格走势 • 本周郑州甲醇主力合约价格震荡收涨，当周主力合约期价+6.54%。 4 来源：博易大师 「 期货市场情况」 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场止跌反弹，其中江苏价格波动区间在1990-2110元/吨，广东价格波 动在1980-2080元/吨。内地甲醇价格上涨，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1985-1990元/ 吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2155-2175元/吨。港口价格走高且套利内地空间收窄，跌价内地 供需矛盾不大影响，企业出货良好，下游买涨心态浓厚。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量少于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量增加。 本周部分预售下周期货量，叠加烯烃企业外采量略缩，内地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will rebound and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 119,000 yuan. The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, facing the pressure of MA20 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Shanghai Nickel - **Weekly Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of +2.66% and an amplitude of 3.21%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 117,080 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months. Fundamentally, the rainy season in the Philippines has led to a downward trend in nickel ore imports. The RKAB approval in Indonesia and possible changes in export policies are potential variables, but they have limited impact on supply recently. On the smelting side, the production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia have been put into operation one after another. Although the shortage of intermediate raw materials and profit losses have led to partial production cuts, the production is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively large. On the demand side, the price of nickel iron, the raw material for stainless steel, has decreased, the profits of steel mills have improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium has increased. The LME inventory overseas also shows an increasing trend. Technically, the position is stable while the price is adjusting, and the divergence between long and short positions has increased [7]. 3.1.2. Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: This week, stainless steel rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of +0.61% and an amplitude of 1.71%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 12,365 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the grade of nickel ore is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. However, the production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the price of nickel iron has decreased significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased. On the supply side, the production profits of stainless - steel plants have improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure has increased. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is showing a downward trend. The impact of the previous export squeeze is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and trading performance are average. Therefore, the social inventory of stainless steel across the country shows a narrow increase. Technically, the position has decreased, the price is under pressure, and the short - selling atmosphere has weakened [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Price Trends - As of November 28, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 885 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 117,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,030 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,365 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton from last week [13]. 3.2.2. Basis Trends - As of November 28, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 119,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,420 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 835 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.3. Price Ratio Trends - As of November 28, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.47, an increase of 0.19 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06 from last week [25]. 3.2.4. Net Position Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 25,372 lots, a decrease of 1,681 lots from November 24, 2025. The net position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 11,728 lots, a decrease of 2,567 lots from November 24, 2025 [31]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Production Profit**: As of November 21, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 14.9976 million tons, a decrease of 97,300 tons from last week. As of November 28, the production profit of electrowinning nickel was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,550 yuan/ton from last week [37][38]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: In September 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In October 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 9,939.649 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.21%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 197,125.63 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173.13% [43]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the inventory of Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 40,782 tons, an increase of 4,031 tons from last week. The LME nickel inventory was 255,450 tons, an increase of 4,014 tons from last week [49][50]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export**: In October 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.5138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.54%. Among them, the production of 400 - series stainless steel was 659,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.57%; the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%; the production of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.054 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.44%. The import volume of stainless steel was 121,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the export volume was 300,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48,200 tons. From January to October, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.2457 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,700 tons [54]. - **Regional Inventory**: As of November 28, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 334,940 tons, an increase of 2,477 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 553,664 tons, an increase of 7,131 tons from last week [59]. - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, the production profit of stainless steel was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from last week [64]. - **Related Industries**: From January to October 2025, the newly started area of housing was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%; the completed area of housing was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%; real estate development investment was 735.627 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. In October 2025, the production of air conditioners was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.33%; the production of household refrigerators was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%; the production of household washing machines was 11.035 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.07%; the production of freezers was 2.153 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.91%. In October 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 3.359 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36.3%; the sales volume was 3.322 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. The production of excavators was 30,880 units, a year - on - year increase of 13%; the production of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,903 units, a year - on - year increase of 5.47%; the production of small tractors was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [68][73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the zinc market are mixed, with short - term support at the bottom. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of 0.13% and an amplitude of 1.43%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,425 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors grew rapidly in the first 10 months [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream, the import volume of zinc ore declined, and the loss of importing zinc concentrates in China widened. Domestic smelters started winter raw material reserves and preferred domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a significant drop in processing fees and a contraction in smelter profits. Overseas supply remained tight, and the export window was open. On the demand side, the downstream market was entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening, while the automotive sector had some bright spots. Downstream buyers purchased on demand at low prices [7]. - **Technical - level**: The position decreased while the price adjusted, and both long and short positions were cautious. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Fluctuation**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 22,425 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.13%) from November 21, 2025. As of November 27, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,022 US dollars/ton, up 18.5 US dollars/ton (0.62%) from November 21, 2025 [10]. - **Net Position of Top 20 in Shanghai Zinc**: As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 8,558 lots, an increase of 1,085 lots from November 21, 2025. The position volume of Shanghai zinc was 188,919 lots, a decrease of 6,325 lots (3.24%) from November 21, 2025 [14]. - **Price Spreads**: As of November 28, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton from November 21, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,335 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton from November 21, 2025 [18]. - **Spot Premiums**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton (0.53%) from November 21, 2025. The spot premium was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of November 27, 2025, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was 165.44 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30.69 US dollars/ton from November 20, 2025 [24]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, an increase of 4,725 tons (10.26%) from November 20, 2025. As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 95,916 tons, a decrease of 4,431 tons (4.42%) from the previous week. As of November 27, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 140,600 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons (11.9%) from November 20, 2025 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In September 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0666 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. In October 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 340,863.41 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.48% and a year - on - year increase of 3.28% [33][34]. - **Supply - End - Global Refined Zinc**: According to WBMS, the global refined zinc market was in short supply. In September 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 85,800 tons (7.73%); the consumption was 1.1749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,900 tons (1.2%); and there was a surplus of 20,300 tons, compared with a deficit of 51,600 tons in the same period last year [35][39]. - **Supply - End - Refined Zinc Production**: In October 2025, the zinc output in China was 665,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7%. From January to October, the cumulative zinc output was 6.184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [43]. - **Supply - End - Refined Zinc Export**: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,836.76 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%; the export volume was 8,518.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3824.82% [46]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to October 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 919,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.85%. In October 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 23,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.74%; the export volume was 328,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.57% [49][50]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to October 2025, the new housing construction area was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.87%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7.885278 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%, among which personal mortgage loans were 1.0834 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [55][56]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: From January to October 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [62]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In October 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. From January to October, the cumulative refrigerator output was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In October 2025, the air - conditioner output was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. From January to October, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3% [64]. - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,322,094 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.82%; the output was 3,358,716 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.09% [68].

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.11.28」 「 周度要点小结」 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场窄幅波动。截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂至1600-1640元/吨， 均价环比上涨5元/吨。短时工厂将挺价为主，行情暂时僵持观望，不排除成交重心继续小幅上移。 行情展望：部分装置检修使得国内尿素产量小幅下降，下周预计4家企业装置计划停车、4家停车 企业装置可能恢复生产，考虑到企业的短时故障，产量预计小幅波动。近日东北储备需求采购较 为集中，但随着前期适当的补充，采购量或有所放缓。复合肥开工环比提升，企业陆续排产冬储 肥，预计短期复合肥产能利用率稳中有升。随着新一批配额的落地，出口需求逐渐增量。近期因 储备需求的继续推进，复合肥等下游终端补仓影响，以东北、华北为主要区域企业出货加快，尿 素企业库存继续下降，考虑到储备需求推进以及部分出口发运预期，短期尿素库存仍有小幅去库 趋势。 策略建议： UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1700区间波动。 「 期货市场情况」 目录 1、 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 沪铜市场周报 需求淡季预期向好，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡偏强，周线涨跌幅为+2.07%，振幅2.19%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价87430元/吨。 后市展望：基本面原料端，铜精矿加工费仍运行于负值区间，原料供给持续紧张，对铜价成本支撑逻辑仍在。供给方面， 经历前期集中检修后，冶炼产能或再度释放，但原料端铜精矿、废铜供应紧张，对产能将有一定限制，故国内精铜供给量 仅小幅度回升。需求方面，消费淡季影响逐步显现，加之铜价偏高位运行，对下游消费有一定抑制，在此背景下，下游采 买情绪或将偏向谨慎，多采取刚需补货策略。库存方面，社会库存整体保持中低水位运行，但由于消费淡季的影响，或有 一定库存积累。应用消费方面，国内电力基础设施临近年末赶工，加之新能源汽车行业的年终冲量，在一定程度上为需求 进行托底。总体来看，沪铜基本面或处于供给小幅回升、需求受淡季影响略收 ...