Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - As of November 13, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas nationwide was 764240 tons, 90540 tons lower than the same period last year. The current inventory level does not represent the peak. The apple futures price is expected to remain high in the short term due to factors such as the market entering the off - season and the increase in citrus sales squeezing the apple sales space [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract was 9438 yuan/ton, and the main contract position was 139413 lots, a decrease of 13351 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures was 8309 lots, a decrease of 1191 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in different regions remained stable, with prices in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia at 5.25 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 3.5 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple production was 5128510 tons, the weekly apple wholesale price was 9.49 yuan/kg, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.12 yuan/kg. The total cold - storage inventory of apples nationwide was 764240 tons, the capacity ratio in Shandong was 0.51, and in Shaanxi was 0.03. The monthly apple export volume was 70000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The month - on - month growth rate of apple export amount was - 8.5%, and the import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 1837980 dollars, with an increase of 248684.5 dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale prices of duck pears, bananas, and watermelons were 6.66 yuan/kg, 5.39 yuan/kg, and 5.36 yuan/kg respectively. The early - morning average daily arrival of trucks at Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets was 12.2, 16, and 23.8 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for apples was 23.42% and 2.11% respectively [2] Industry News - The trading of stored Fuji apples in the western producing areas was generally stable, and the enthusiasm of merchants to purchase was average. In the Shandong producing area, the quantity of out - of - storage goods decreased, and the quality was uneven. The new - season late - maturing Fuji apple warehousing work was nearing completion [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Monday, the I2601 contract rose. Macroscopically, many places in Henan and Hebei lifted the emergency response for heavy - pollution weather. In terms of supply and demand, the shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased this period, the arrival volume decreased, and domestic port inventories continued to rise; the utilization rate of steel mill blast furnace capacity and pig iron output stopped falling and rebounded, strengthening demand support. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The market may remain oscillating and relatively strong, and risk control should be emphasized [2]. 3. Detailed Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 788.50 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 481,401 lots, up 1,021 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 21,825 lots, up 2,935 lots. The spread between the I 1 - 5 contracts is 32 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt of the Dalian Commodity Exchange for I is 900 lots, with no change. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 104.35 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 1.76 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 858 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore is 850 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 761 yuan/dry ton, up 2 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 62 yuan, down 14 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 103.60 US dollars/ton, with no change. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.13, down 0.01. The estimated import cost is 844 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,516.40 million tons, up 447.40 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,369.90 million tons, down 399.40 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 15,812.84 million tons, up 188.71 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,076.01 million tons, up 66.07 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,130.90 million tons, down 502.10 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) are 23 days, with no change. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 40.43 million tons, up 0.44 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.74%, up 0.78%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.52 million tons, down 2.31 million tons. The BDI index is 2,125.00, up 48.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 23.51 US dollars/ton, up 0.73 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.295 US dollars/ton, up 0.26 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 82.79%, down 0.36%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 88.82%, up 1.03%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 7,200 million tons, down 149 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 17.92%, up 1.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.81%, up 0.78%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 26.01%, up 11.67%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 18.65%, up 2.56% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From November 10th to November 16th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,516.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 447.4 million tons. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,908.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 360.1 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia was 2,050.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 239.6 million tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,873.0 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 339.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 858.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 120.5 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,369.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 399.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,268.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 472.3 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,041.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 484.5 million tons [2].

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/11/17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,792.00 | +44.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,566.00 | +76.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 595,470.00 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The HC2601 contract increased in price with reduced positions on Monday. Some steel mills have announced blast furnace maintenance plans recently, and there are expectations of macro - level positive news to boost market confidence. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to decline slightly, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 80.13%. Downstream demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The market may fluctuate and strengthen, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the position volume was 1,263,520 lots, down 23,505 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 52,146 lots, up 7,583 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 150,567 tons, up 6,484 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 205 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The basis of the HC main contract was 38 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 151.2592 million tons, up 2.3111 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 360,300 tons, down 1,200 tons. - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2215 million tons, down 44,100 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 1.1666 million tons, down 33,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.79%, down 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, up 1.03 percentage points. - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.1366 million tons, down 45,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 80.13%, down 1.15 percentage points. - The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 775,200 tons, up 900 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.33 million tons, down 200 tons. - The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.3587 million vehicles, up 82,900 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.3221 million vehicles, up 95,700 vehicles. - The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units. - The monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The People's Bank of China announced that it will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on the 17th, with a term of 6 months (182 days). Considering the operation volume and maturity volume in November, this operation means that the central bank's outright reverse repurchase will be increased, with a cumulative net investment of 500 billion yuan. - From November to December, the automobile consumption promotion activity in Jiangsu will be intensified, and the subsidy standard will be significantly increased. For new cars with an invoice price of 400,000 yuan or more (including tax), the subsidy standard will be increased from 8,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver continued to decline under pressure during the session, but the downward momentum weakened, and the London gold and silver prices formed strong support at the integer level [3]. - The market's risk - aversion sentiment weakened marginally after the US - Switzerland tariff agreement, and profit - taking by long - positions intensified the pressure on the high - level correction of gold prices. FOMC officials' hawkish signals reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut to below 50%, strengthening the US dollar and pressuring precious metals [3]. - In the short term, if the US stock market continues to decline, liquidity risks may increase the correction pressure on precious metals. The Fed's more hawkish stance than expected and the rise in US Treasury yields pose potential negatives to gold prices. - In the long term, the increasing US debt pressure and weakening investor confidence in the US dollar make gold attractive. Central bank gold purchases may push up the gold price center. The recommended trading ranges are 900 - 950 yuan/gram for the Shanghai gold 2512 contract and 11500 - 12300 yuan/kg for the Shanghai silver 2512 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 929.46 yuan/gram, down 23.74 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 11933 yuan/kg, down 418 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 101723 lots, down 11874 lots; the Shanghai silver main contract was 311515 lots, up 101189 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 108348 lots, down 7750 lots; the Shanghai silver was 105453 lots, down 16646 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 90426 kg (unchanged); the silver was 569355 kg, down 7539 kg [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 931.45 yuan/gram, down 27.35 yuan; the silver spot price was 11977 yuan/kg, down 441 yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1.99 yuan/gram, down 3.61 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 44 yuan/kg, down 23 yuan [3]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 1044 tons, down 4.93 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15218.42 tons, up 45.14 tons [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net position was 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver was 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons and 54.83 tons respectively. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the global annual demand was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. 3.4. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 27.6%, down 2.74%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.22%, up 0.1% [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 26.76%, up 2%. 3.5. Industry News - The US and Switzerland have "basically" reached a trade agreement. US tariffs on Swiss goods will drop from 39% to 15%, and Switzerland will invest $200 billion in the US [3]. - The US will release the Q3 GDP revised value on November 26, along with October personal income, expenditure, and PCE index at 10:00 on the same day. There are also scheduled releases of September non - farm payroll and real wage data, but the release of October CPI data is uncertain [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in December is 44.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 55.6%. By January next year, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 48.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 16.7% [3].

需采购为主，现货升水上涨；海外LME库存亦呈现增长。预计镍价震荡弱势运行。技术面，持仓增量价格 下跌，空头氛围升温，关注11.7关口争夺。观点参考：预计短线沪镍震荡偏弱，关注MA5压力。 免责声明 | | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-11-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 116750 | -330 12-01月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -200 | 0 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14880 | -75 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 107341 | -4908 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -34387 | -2282 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 252090 | 120 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 40573 | 3386 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 13992 | 108 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 3582 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is under less pressure as near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and coastal oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks and are mostly shut down. However, demand is weakening due to reduced aquaculture demand with temperature drops and the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybeans and soybean meal. The fall in US soybeans has dragged down domestic meal prices, and today rapeseed meal saw a decline with reduced positions. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On the supply side, near - month imports of rapeseed are structurally tightened, oil mills have used up their rapeseed stocks and are mostly shut down, and rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. But on the demand side, the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Recently, rapeseed oil futures prices have rebounded from low levels, with increased short - term volatility, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures decreased by 43 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal futures increased by 9880 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures decreased by 3.1 Canadian dollars/ton, and that of the active contract of domestic rapeseed futures increased by 80 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 45 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 9 yuan/ton. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and that of the rapeseed meal main contract decreased by 39 yuan/ton [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil decreased by 3228 hands, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 47901 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 4311 hands, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 23476 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 0, and that of rapeseed meal was 5323, unchanged from the previous day [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the import cost price of rapeseed decreased by 26.88 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 4.1, an increase of 0.09 [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 60 yuan/ton [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The predicted annual production of rapeseed globally was 90.96 million tons, an increase of 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed decreased by 13.13 tons, the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 2 tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 16 tons, a decrease of 5.57 tons [2]. - **Profits and Rates**: The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 28 yuan/ton, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 0.5 tons, the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0.5%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 0.52 tons, and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 0.3 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region decreased by 2.37 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 0.6 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region decreased by 0.32 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region increased by 0.1 tons [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 decreased by 0.53 tons, and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 decreased by 0.19 tons [2]. **Industry News** - On November 14 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the weakness of Chicago bean futures after the USDA supply - demand report, but the weekly line increased. The January rapeseed futures contract closed down 3.40 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 647.50 Canadian dollars/ton, and the weekly increase was 1.2% [2]. - The USDA lowered the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season from 53.5 bushels in September to 53.0 bushels, and the total production was expected to be 4.253 billion bushels, lower than the September forecast. However, the unexpected reduction in US soybean exports led to selling after the report [2]. - From August 1 to November 2, 2025, Canadian rapeseed exports were 1.4233 million tons, a 54.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. Canada's bio - fuel production incentive plan uses rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports to Pakistan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On Monday, the RB2601 contract rebounded with reduced positions. The People's Bank of China conducted an 800 - billion - yuan buy - out reverse repurchase operation on the 17th, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan in November. The weekly output of rebar continued to decline, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 43.85%. Inventory has decreased for several consecutive weeks, and the increase in futures rebar prices has driven up spot trading. Most steel mills have announced blast furnace maintenance plans, and positive macro - level expectations have boosted market confidence. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The market may be oscillating strongly, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,097 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the position volume was 1,729,748 lots, down 107,385 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 73,835 lots, up 6,420 lots; the RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. - The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 108,272 tons, down 3,655 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 205 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,270 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,354 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. - The price in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,380 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The basis of the RB main contract was 173 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 151.2592 million tons, up 2.3111 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 360,300 tons, down 1,200 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2215 million tons, down 44,100 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.1666 million tons, down 33,400 tons. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.79%, down 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, up 1.03 percentage points. - The rebar output of sample steel mills was 2 million tons, down 85,400 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 43.85%, down 1.87 percentage points. - The rebar inventory in sample steel mills was 1.6042 million tons, down 64,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.1575 million tons, down 99,500 tons. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 2.08 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons. - The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons; the net export of steel products was 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.43, down 0.34. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.70%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 14.70%, down 0.80 percentage points. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 0.10%, down 1.20 percentage points. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.52939 billion square meters, down 43.59 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 490.61 million square meters, down 36.62 million square meters. - The unsold area of commercial housing was 396.45 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have been fully launched, targeting Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and several central enterprises, with an inspection period of one month. - Many places in Henan and Hebei have lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [2].

于需局面预计维持，但地缘方面美委关系紧张可能加剧，国际油价多空因素交织。短期L2601预计震荡走势 免责声明 ，区间预计在6750-6950附近。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 塑料产业日报 2025-11-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6843 | -10 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6853 | 35 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6915 | 22 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6956 | 18 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 206820 | -140705 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc ore imports in China have increased due to the arrival of long - term agreement ores and raw material reserves for winter production. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees have been cut, and sulfuric acid prices have dropped, significantly squeezing smelters' profits, with some incurring losses. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc output is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped sharply, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect was weak, the real - estate sector was a drag, while policies in the automotive and home - appliance sectors brought some bright spots. The recovery of downstream demand was insufficient, with the market mainly making on - demand purchases at low prices. Domestic inventories decreased slightly, and LME zinc de - stocking slowed down. Technically, with stable positions and price adjustments, there was more divergence between bulls and bears. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate and adjust, with attention on the range of 2.22 - 2.26 [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,465 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai zinc was - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote was 3,014.5 dollars/ton, down 26 dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 217,728 lots, down 8,952 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 8,214 lots, down 2,748 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 76,861 tons, up 5,108 tons. The SHFE inventory was 100,892 tons, up 684 tons; the LME inventory was 38,975 tons, up 1,175 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,400 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,170 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract was - 65 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was 175.85 dollars/ton, up 54.36 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 18,320 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production by ILZSG was 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons. Domestic refined zinc production was 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports were 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports were 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports were 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. The social inventory of zinc was 160,800 tons, down 900 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets were 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area was 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. Automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc was 11.84%, down 0.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc was 11.84%, down 0.25 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 10.03%, up 0.73 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 9.31%, up 0.37 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy policies to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. The Ministry of Finance will implement a proactive fiscal policy, expand domestic demand, and support the construction of a strong domestic market. China released its October economic data, with the growth rates of industry, social consumer goods retail, investment, and real - estate sales all lower than the previous period. The schedule for important US data was determined: September non - farm payrolls will be released on November 20, and the Fed's preferred PCE indicator will be released on November 26. There is a split within the Fed on interest - rate cuts [3]