Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Methanol Industry Daily Report 2025 - 12 - 25 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03139610 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021558 [3] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - Main contract closing price of methanol: 2162 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - 5 - 9 spread of methanol: 7 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [3] - Main contract open interest of methanol: 794,131 lots, down 3,810 lots [3] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: -142,531 lots, down 32,156 lots [3] - Warehouse receipt quantity of methanol: 6,748 sheets, unchanged [3] Spot Market - Price in Jiangsu Taicang: 2150 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [3] - Price in Inner Mongolia: 1870 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [3] - East - Northwest spread: 280 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [3] - Basis of Zhengzhou methanol main contract: -22 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [3] - CFR China Main Port: 252 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton [3] - CFR Southeast Asia: 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - FOB Rotterdam: 253 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton [3] - China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread: -68 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - NYMEX natural gas: 4.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.16 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] Industry Situation - East China port inventory: 100.73 tons, up 20.77 tons [3] - South China port inventory: 40.52 tons, down 1.4 tons [3] - Methanol import profit: 4.53 yuan/ton, up 1.39 yuan/ton [3] - Import volume: 141.76 tons, down 19.5 tons [3] - Inland enterprise inventory: 404,000 tons, up 12,900 tons [3] - Methanol enterprise operating rate: 90.52%, up 0.71% [3] Downstream Situation - Formaldehyde operating rate: 42.58%, up 1.09% [3] - Dimethyl ether operating rate: 7.09%, down 1.89% [3] - Acetic acid operating rate: 76.51%, up 2.62% [3] - MTBE operating rate: 68.9%, down 0.85% [3] Option Market - Olefin operating rate: 89.51%, down 0.44% [3] - Methanol - to - olefin disk profit: -1020 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [3] - 20 - day historical volatility: 13.78%, up 0.1% [3] - 40 - day historical volatility: 14.81%, down 0.02% [3] - At - the - money call option implied volatility: 17.92%, down 0.15% [3] - At - the - money put option implied volatility: 17.93%, down 0.14% [3] Group 3: Industry News - As of December 24, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 40.40 tons, up 3.28% from the previous period; sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 19.36 tons, down 12.16% from the previous period [3] - As of December 24, China's total methanol port inventory was 141.25 tons, up 19.37 tons from the previous data. East China had inventory build - up, while South China had inventory drawdown. The significant inventory build - up in ports was mainly due to more output from restored capacity than capacity loss from maintenance and production cuts, increasing overall production and market supply [3] - As of December 25, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 88.68%, down 0.44%. The load of MTO enterprises in East China and Northwest decreased slightly, and the weekly average industry operating rate continued to decline [3] Group 4: Core Views - Inland enterprise inventory increased. In the short - term, with relatively abundant supply, weak winter demand expectations are unfavorable for upstream production end sales, and inventory is expected to increase overall [3] - Methanol port inventory increased significantly this week, mainly in Jiangsu. Weakening inland market led to weaker提货 in the Yangtze River area of Jiangsu, contributing to significant inventory accumulation. Next week, the arrival volume of foreign vessels will remain high, and import demand may remain weak. Port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase, subject to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and specific提货 volume changes [3] - The load of MTO enterprises in East China and Northwest decreased slightly, and the domestic methanol - to - olefin industry operating rate continued to decline this week. In the short - term, individual enterprises in East China and Northwest will continue to reduce their loads, and the industry operating rate is expected to decline slightly [3] - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short - term [3] Group 5: Suggestions - Pay attention to the inventory data of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [3]

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11395 | 220 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 99013 | -4086 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -10 | 5 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 11000 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10950 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11000 | 东(日,元/吨) 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 11150 | 50 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | -170 62.38 | 东(日,元/吨) -80 0.31 石脑油:CFR日本( ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply is relatively abundant, and the weak winter demand expectations are unfavorable for the upstream production end's shipping rhythm. The inventory is expected to increase overall. The methanol port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to increase slightly. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2172 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 27 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 797,941 lots, down 57,443 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 110,375 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,748, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2135 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1915 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - Northwest spread is 220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 37 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 248 US dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 252 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the China Main Port - Southeast Asia spread is - 72 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.42 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 100.73 tons, up 20.77 tons; in South China ports, it is 40.52 tons, down 1.4 tons. The methanol import profit is 3.14 yuan/ton, down 2.05 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, down 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 404,000 tons, up 12,900 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate is 90.52%, up 0.71%. [2] Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.58%, up 1.09%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.09%, down 1.89%; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.51%, up 2.62%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.9%, down 0.85%; the olefin operating rate is 89.51%, down 0.44%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 1038 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 13.78%, up 0.1%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.81%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 18.07%, up 0.3% [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 40.40 tons, up 1.28 tons, a 3.28% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered are 19.36 tons, down 2.68 tons, a 12.16% decrease. The total methanol port inventory is 141.25 tons, up 19.37 tons. The inventory in East China has increased, and in South China, it has decreased [2]. - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 89.49%, a 0.71% decrease. The Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake plants continue to be shut down, and the weekly average operating rate of the MTO industry has decreased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The output of urea decreased slightly this week due to new device overhauls, but is expected to increase slightly considering short - term malfunctions of enterprises. Agricultural demand is in a short - term off - season, with some reserve demand for replenishment, especially in the Northeast. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer decreased slightly due to environmental warnings in some areas, and its capacity utilization rate is expected to decline steadily. Affected by market sentiment, urea factories' order intake improved and inventory continued to decline. After the end of environmental warnings, urea output is expected to rise and inventory may increase. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1710 - 1770 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1735 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 23 yuan/ton, down 2734 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 187,367 lots, up 8318 lots, and the net position of the top 20 was - 24,111 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts were 10,432 sheets, down 100 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei was 1730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Henan, it was 1680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Shandong, it was 1710 yuan/ton, with Jiangsu down 10 yuan/ton and Shandong unchanged; in Anhui, it was 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 25 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea was 350 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port was 390 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory was 138,000 tons, up 15,000 tons; enterprise inventory was 1.1797 million tons, down 54,500 tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate was 80.69%, down 1.16 percentage points; the daily output was 195,100 tons, down 2800 tons. Urea exports were 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons; the monthly output was 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate was 39.37%, down 1.25 percentage points; the melamine start - up rate was 58.55%, down 3.31 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 140 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 36 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 30,500 tons, down 1700 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0689 million tons, down 110,800 tons from last week, a 9.39% decrease. As of December 18, the sample inventory at Chinese urea ports was 138,000 tons, up 15,000 tons, a 12.20% increase, with exports being shipped to ports steadily. As of December 18, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3659 million tons, down 19,500 tons from the previous period, a 1.41% decrease; the capacity utilization rate was 80.69%, down 1.16 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate on Thursday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the main contract EC2602 closing down 1.63% and the far - month contracts closing down between -1% and -1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight index was 1589.20, up 78.64 points from last week, a 5.2% week - on - week increase. The SCFI rebounded for the second consecutive week, rising 46.46 points to 1552.92 points, a 3.08% increase. The full - load of shipping companies drove the futures price up. The new export order index in November rose to 47.9, indicating a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transportation demand. The 52 - week average spot freight quote was $2450 for large containers, and some voyages were over - booked. The Red Sea resumption of navigation expectation improved, and the euro - zone economy continued to recover. Trade war situation improvement and the shipping peak season are conducive to the futures price recovery, while the short - term impact of geopolitical situation on freight rates has weakened. The freight market is mainly affected by seasonal demand. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1795.80, down 29.8; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1165, down 0.8. EC2602 - EC2604 spread: 630.80, down 17.80; EC2602 - EC2606 spread: 476.80, up 1.90. EC contract basis: - 206.60, up 10.80. EC main contract open interest: 34316, down 688 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1589.20, up 78.64; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly): 962.10, up 37.74. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1552.92, up 46.46. Container ship capacity: 1227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1124.73, up 6.66; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1473.90, up 3.35. Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1889.00, up 90.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1266.00, up 16.00. Average charter price of Panamax ships: 0.00, unchanged; Average charter price of Capesize ships: 22120.00, down 4660.00 [1] 3.3 Industry News - Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized that central enterprises should focus on their main responsibilities, optimize the layout of the state - owned economy, strengthen core functions and competitiveness, focus on the real economy, strengthen key core technology research, and deepen reforms. US President Trump posted that he hopes the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and the market are performing well, and criticized the current market logic. He said low - interest rates can boost the stock market, the economy and improve the housing burden, and a rising stock market may increase the US GDP by 10, 15, 20 or more percentage points [1] 3.4 Key Points to Follow - Multiple regions will have Christmas holidays on December 25th [1]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 124,720.00 | +4360.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -133,323.00 | +8369.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 647,366.00 | -24207.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,240.00 | +320.00↑ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 17,101.00 | +450.00↑ | | | | 现货市场 | 电池级碳酸锂平均价（日，元/吨） | 101,500.00 | +2000.00↑ 工业级碳酸锂平均价（日，万元/吨） | 98,850.00 | +2000.00↑ | | | Li₂CO₃主力合约基差（日，元/吨） | -23,220.00 | -2360.00↓ | | | | 上游情况 | 锂辉石精矿(6%CIF中国)平均价（日，美元/吨） | 1,330.00 | +10.00↑ 磷锂铝石平均价（ ...

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,285 | +4↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1229562 | +31165↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 19,853 | -4663↓ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | 2 | +3↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 131893 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 149 | -4↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,340.00 | +20.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,260.00 | 0.00 | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,180.00 | 0.00 | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 55.00 | +16.00↑ 杭州热卷-螺纹钢价差(元/吨) | 1 ...

面，放量增仓价格上涨，多头氛围较强。观点参考：预计短线沪镍偏强调整，关注MA5支撑，上方13关口 。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-12-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 128000 | 4560 01-02月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -350 | 50 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15640 | 380 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 152222 | 17768 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -47070 | -10227 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 254604 | 216 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 45280 | 603 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 12306 | 534 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple trading remains sluggish in the market, with low trading volume in cold storage in Shandong and Shaanxi, and few purchases by market customers. The festival atmosphere is weak. In contrast, trading is normal in Gansu, where customers continue to select suitable products as needed, and mainstream trading is stable, with prices determined by quality [2]. - The trading atmosphere for late Fuji apples remains weak, and customers' enthusiasm for purchasing from fruit farmers has declined. High - quality apples maintain firm prices, while the prices of medium - and low - quality apples have softened [2]. - In Shandong, a small number of customers are packaging their own inventory for shipment, and the enthusiasm for foreign trade sourcing has decreased. In Shaanxi's secondary production areas, the price of fruit farmers' apples has slightly declined, and a small amount of low - priced goods are being sold slowly. In some main production areas, prices have dropped due to quality issues [2]. - There is limited trading of fruit farmers' apples in cold storage, and the atmosphere for Christmas and New Year's Day stocking is weak. The sales in the distribution market are still poor, showing a year - on - year decline. The increasing supply of tangerines and other citrus fruits is impacting apple sales. With the approaching of the two festivals, apple prices may fluctuate in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9191 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest is 143,446 lots, a decrease of 1395 lots compared to the previous period. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3298 lots, a decrease of 1486 lots [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 5.25 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, both unchanged from the previous period. The spot price in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin, and in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4 yuan/jin, also unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons. The weekly fruit wholesale price of apples is 9.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.14 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [2]. - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 752.98 million tons, a decrease of 5.57 million tons. The storage capacity ratio of apples in Shandong is 0.57, and in Shaanxi is 0.53. The monthly apple export volume is 120,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 16.2 billion US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples has decreased by 216,418 US dollars compared to the same period last year. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples is 0 yuan/jin [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly fruit wholesale price of pears is 6.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg; the price of bananas is 6.83 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.23 yuan/kg; the price of watermelons is 5.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg [2]. - The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 17.2, an increase of 2.6; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market, it is 2.8; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market, it is 27.6, an increase of 3.8 [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 24.55%, a decrease of 0.1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.55%, a decrease of 0.11% [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,136.00 | +8↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1597429 | +17388↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 2539 | +13441↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -15 | -3↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 82284 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 149 | -4↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,415 | 0.00 | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,510.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,170.00 | 0.00 | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 194.00 | -8↓ 杭州热卷 ...