1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 25, the central bank continued to increase the volume of MLF operations, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan. The yields of short - term treasury bonds were strong while those of medium and long - term bonds were weak. Treasury futures declined across the board. The domestic economic fundamentals showed a marginal slowdown in industrial growth and social retail in November, with fixed - asset investment in continuous negative growth and stable unemployment. The financial data was structurally differentiated, with an unexpected increase in social financing but weak credit. The CPI improved in November, and the PPI decline marginally expanded. Overseas, the US consumption was strong, and the market expected future interest rate cuts. Overall, the domestic economic internal momentum needs to be boosted. Next year's monetary policy will remain moderately loose, but the urgency of short - term interest rate cuts is not high. Future policy will focus on structural tools, and short - term interest rates are expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Price**: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别为108.195、105.990、102.510、112.510，较昨日分别下跌0.02%、0.03%、0.02%、0.24% [2]. - **Futures Trading Volume**: T、TF、TS、TL主力成交量分别为56411、49022、30026、95007，较昨日分别减少12732、5686、增加3525、减少15756 [2]. - **Futures Price Spread**: Different spreads showed various trends, such as the TL2603 - 2606 spread increasing by 0.00 to - 0.22, and the T2603 - 2606 spread decreasing by 0.02 to - 0.02 [2]. - **Futures Position**: T、TF、TS、TL主力持仓量分别为247563、156449、78241、143219，较昨日分别增加4062、1927、减少289、减少847. The net short positions of the top 20 in T、TF、TS、TL changed by - 203、666、 - 760、 - 1354 respectively [2]. 3.2 Bond Price and Yield Data - **CTD Bond Net Price**: Some CTD bonds' net prices declined, while a few increased, such as 250018.IB (6y) decreasing by 0.0285 to 100.517 and 250017.IB (2y) increasing by 0.0036 to 100.1542 [2]. - **Active Treasury Bond Yield**: The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year active treasury bonds decreased by 0.50bp and 0.75bp to 1.3350% and 1.3750% respectively. The 5 - year and 10 - year yields remained unchanged at 1.5800% and 1.8350% [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rate**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 4.80bp to 1.2480%, and the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 18.68bp to 1.5668%. Some Shibor rates also changed [2]. - **LPR Rate**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Policy and Market News - **Central Bank Policy**: The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, emphasizing the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, and maintaining stable capital markets without mentioning the real estate market. On December 25, the central bank carried out 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount, marking the 10th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2][3]. - **Real Estate Policy**: Beijing optimized its housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing the purchase conditions for non - Beijing households and adjusting mortgage policies for multi - child families [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The recent parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices may increase the risk of a high - level decline. Short - term technical correction pressure should be guarded against [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 529.05 yuan/gram (up 29.65 yuan), and the closing price of the palladium main contract was 686.95 yuan/gram (down 43.85 yuan) - The main contract holdings for platinum were 3,179.00 hands (down 277.00 hands), and for palladium were 10,387.00 hands (up 90.00 hands) [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 591.25 yuan/gram (down 15.74 yuan), and the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 417.00 yuan/gram (down 41.00 yuan) - The platinum main contract basis was - 95.70 yuan/gram (down 45.39 yuan), and the palladium main contract basis was - 112.05 yuan/gram (up 2.85 yuan) [2] Supply - Demand Situation - The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9,966.00 contracts (down 243.00 contracts), and the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions were 3,003.00 contracts (down 342.00 contracts) - The total platinum supply in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 0.80 tons), and the total palladium supply in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons (down 5.00 tons) - The total platinum demand in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons (up 25.60 tons), and the total palladium demand in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons (down 27.00 tons) [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index was 97.90 (down 0.36), the VIX volatility index was 14.00, and the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.94% (up 0.00%) - The initial annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, far exceeding the market expectation of 3.3%, with consumer spending being the main driver. The core PCE price index in the third quarter rose 2.9%. US core capital goods orders and shipments rebounded in October - US President Trump posted that he hopes the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and markets perform well - Gold prices have risen more than 71% this year, and silver prices have risen about 147% - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 86.7%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 5.0% [2] Industry News - The platinum and palladium markets hit the daily limit for several consecutive trading days before. Today, their trends diverged. The platinum 2606 contract rebounded strongly after hitting a low in the morning, while the palladium 2606 contract was still under pressure after hitting the daily limit down - Tight physical inventory and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly increased the price elasticity of platinum recently. The London platinum lease rate continued to rise, and palladium ETF holdings continued to increase, exacerbating the supply - demand contradiction - The large domestic - foreign price difference has stimulated arbitrage motives, pushing up the spot price and amplifying the futures price elasticity - In the medium - to - long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of new - energy vehicles, with the market shifting from short supply to oversupply. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective choice again [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The bullish logic in the precious metals market remains intact. The US dollar is expected to remain weak in the short - term, but there is a risk of short - term technical correction due to prices deviating from fundamentals. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the historical average range, and it may stabilize near key support levels with some potential for rebound and repair [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 1008.760 yuan/gram, down 5.9; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 17408 yuan/kilogram, down 201.00. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold decreased by 4619.00 to 182,179.00 hands, while those of Shanghai Silver increased by 4967.00 to 16,778.00 hands. The main contract trading volumes of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver decreased by 131165.00 and 53477.00 to 220,136.00 and 1,313,777.00 respectively. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 93711 kilograms, and that of Shanghai Silver decreased by 29532 to 852,417 kilograms [1] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 1002.98, down 4.71; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 17,134.00, down 214.00. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract increased by 1.21 to - 5.78 yuan/gram, and that of the Shanghai Silver main contract decreased by 13.00 to - 274.00 yuan/gram [1] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.71 to 1068.27 tons, while the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 56.40 to 16,446.97 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC increased by 10092.00 and 6331.00 to 233978.00 and 38,519.00 respectively. The total quarterly supply of gold increased by 86.24 to 1313.07 tons, and the annual supply of silver increased by 482.00 to 32,056.00 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold increased by 174.15 to 1257.90 tons, and the annual demand for silver decreased by 491.00 to 35,716.00 tons [1] 4. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index increased by 0.05 to 97.95, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.03 to 1.91. The VIX volatility index decreased by 0.53 to 13.47, and the CBOE gold volatility index decreased by 0.72 to 23.81. The S&P 500/gold price ratio and the gold - silver ratio remained unchanged [1] 5. Industry News - The US Q3 real GDP initial value had an annualized quarterly growth rate of 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%. Consumption was the main driver, with a growth rate accelerating to 3.5%. The core PCE price index rose 2.9%. In October, orders and shipments of core capital goods in the US rebounded. Trump hoped the next Fed chair would cut interest rates when the economy and market are good. Gold prices have risen over 71% this year, and silver prices have risen about 147%. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 13.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 86.7%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 5.0% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. However, with Australian rapeseed arriving and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, marginal supply increases. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal price has been fluctuating recently. The market is watching China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is in a de - stocking mode, which supports the price. But with Australian rapeseed arriving for crushing and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations, long - term supply pressure increases. The abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil at a basic level. Recently, the rapeseed oil price has been fluctuating at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil was 8981 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), rapeseed meal was 2352 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan), ICE rapeseed was 612.4 Canadian dollars/ton (up 9.7 Canadian dollars), and domestic rapeseed was 5580 yuan/ton (up 101 yuan) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) was 39 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) was - 53 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil had 197,238 lots (down 3 lots), rapeseed meal had 638,009 lots (up 7359 lots) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil was - 29,431 lots (down 3354 lots), rapeseed meal was - 39,444 lots (up 12,096 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil was 3786 sheets (down 80 sheets), rapeseed meal was 0 sheets (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9560 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan), rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2430 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged), fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8340 yuan/ton (unchanged), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8490 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil was 9678.75 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan) [2]. - Import cost: Imported rapeseed was 7519.9 yuan/ton (up 28.92 yuan) [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main contract basis was 580 yuan/ton (up 67 yuan), rapeseed meal main contract basis was 78 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Price spreads: Rapeseed - soybean oil was 1220 yuan/ton (up 170 yuan), rapeseed - palm oil was 1090 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan), soybean - rapeseed meal was 670 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast: 92.27 million tons (up 1.31 million tons), annual forecast for rapeseed was 13,446 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - Rapeseed imports: Total monthly imports were 0.2 million tons (up 0.2 million tons) [2]. - Imported rapeseed crushing profit: 489 yuan/ton (down 43 yuan) [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills: 0.1 million tons (unchanged) [2]. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate: 0% (unchanged) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Imports: Rapeseed oil and mustard oil were 14 million tons (down 2 million tons), rapeseed meal was 22.06 million tons (up 6.29 million tons) [2]. - Inventories: Coastal rapeseed oil was 0.5 million tons (down 0.15 million tons), coastal rapeseed meal was 0 million tons (down 0.02 million tons), East China rapeseed oil was 29.8 million tons (down 2.4 million tons), East China rapeseed meal was 17.91 million tons (down 0.7 million tons), Guangxi rapeseed oil was 0.4 million tons (down 0.15 million tons), South China rapeseed meal was 24 million tons (down 0.8 million tons) [2]. - Weekly pick - up volumes: Rapeseed oil was 0.48 million tons (down 0.42 million tons), rapeseed meal was 0 million tons (unchanged) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed production: Monthly output was 2977.9 million tons (up 20.9 million tons) [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production: Monthly output was 427.6 million tons (down 67.4 million tons) [2]. - Catering revenue: Monthly retail sales were 6057 billion yuan (up 858 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: Rapeseed meal was 16.44% (down 0.1%), rapeseed oil was 14.35% (down 0.15%) [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: Rapeseed meal was 16.44% (down 0.1%), rapeseed oil was 14.32% (down 0.2%) [2]. - Historical volatility (20 - day): Rapeseed meal was 11.87% (down 0.01%), rapeseed oil was 16.56% (up 1.05%) [2]. - Historical volatility (60 - day): Rapeseed meal was 10.92% (down 0.68%), rapeseed oil was 14.8% (down 0.03%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 24, the ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by the rising CBOT soybean oil price. The most actively traded March rapeseed futures contract rose 11.30 Canadian dollars to 611.50 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, supply is temporarily abundant, and Brazil is expected to have a good soybean harvest. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global market. China has bought over 8 million tons of US soybeans and is moving towards the goal of 12 million tons [2]. - The AAFC raised the forecast of Canada's rapeseed ending inventory for 2025/26 by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons, compared with 1.597 million tons in the previous year [2]. - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 20 days, and export data improved. However, Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota has raised concerns about the implementation of the B50 plan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The economic indicators released in November have put some pressure on the upside of A-shares, but the positive tone set by the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference has injected confidence into the market, providing strong support for the bottom of A-shares. The market is currently in a macro data vacuum period, and the impact of the external environment on A-shares has increased. The recent expectation of a dovish stance from the new Fed chair has weakened the US dollar, and the continuous strengthening of the RMB exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January 2026 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all increased. For example, the latest price of the IF main contract (2603) was 4610.6, up 14.8; the latest price of the IH main contract (2603) was 3034.0, up 8.2; the latest price of the IC main contract (2603) was 7320.6, up 70.4; the latest price of the IM main contract (2603) was 7419.0, up 85.4 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the IF - IH current month contract spread was 1599.2, up 6.8; the IC - IF current month contract spread was 2766.0, up 59.0 [2] - **Futures Holdings**: The net positions of the top 20 in the futures market changed. The net position of the top 20 in the IF was -27,710.00, down 147.0; the net position of the top 20 in the IH was -16,523.00, up 212.0; the net position of the top 20 in the IC was -25,254.00, down 472.0; the net position of the top 20 in the IM was -39,737.00, up 403.0 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased. The CSI 300 was 4642.54, up 8.5; the SSE 50 was 3,032.8, up 7.7; the CSI 500 was 7,410.7, up 58.7; the CSI 1000 was 7,579.4, up 73.0 [2] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM also changed. The basis of the IF main contract was -31.9, up 7.1; the basis of the IH main contract was 1.2, down 0.7; the basis of the IC main contract was -90.1, up 21.5; the basis of the IM main contract was -160.4, up 18.4 [2] 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance**: The A-share trading volume was 19,439.18 billion yuan, up 466.76 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 25,416.83 billion yuan, up 101.20 billion yuan [2] - **Northbound Trading and Repurchase**: The total northbound trading volume was 1671.78 billion yuan, down 132.60 billion yuan; the repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume) was -883.0 billion yuan, up 1771.0 billion yuan [2] - **Main Funds and MLF**: The main funds were +53.35 billion yuan yesterday and -235.59 billion yuan today; the MLF (renewal volume, net investment) was 0 billion yuan, down 3000 billion yuan [2] - **Stock Rise Ratio and Shibor**: The ratio of rising stocks was 69.05%, down 6.54%; the Shibor was 1.262%, down 0.005% [2] - **Option Prices and Volatility**: The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2601) was 58.00, up 1.40; the implied volatility of the IO at - the - money call option was 14.41%, down 0.63%; the closing price of the IO at - the - money put option (2601) was 70.40, down 12.80; the implied volatility of the IO at - the - money put option was 14.41%, down 0.64% [2] - **Volatility and PCR**: The 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index was 11.82%, down 0.02%; the trading volume PCR was 50.06%, down 4.98%; the position PCR was 69.06%, up 1.08% [2] 3.4 Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - The scores of all A - shares, technical indicators, and capital indicators in the Wind market strength and weakness analysis all decreased. All A - shares were 6.80, down 0.50; the technical aspect was 6.90, down 0.60; the capital aspect was 6.80, down 0.30 [2] 3.5 Industry News - **LPR Announcement**: On December 22, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% (unchanged from the previous time), and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (unchanged from the previous time) [2] - **Trump's Statement**: Trump hopes that the next Fed chair will cut interest rates when the economy and the market are performing well, rather than "killing the market" due to inflation concerns [2] - **A - share Market Performance**: A - share major indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.3%. Small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly rebounded, and nearly 3800 stocks rose. The national defense and military industry sector strengthened significantly, while the comprehensive sector declined significantly [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - From December 24 - 25, the US, Europe, Hong Kong and other places were closed for Christmas. On December 27 at 9:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for November will be released [3]

试多远月。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 鸡蛋产业日报 2025-12-25 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 2946 | -1 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -38032 | -4612 | | | 克) 鸡蛋期货月间价差(5-9):(日,元/500千克) | -528 | 0 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 158949 | ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11285 | -110 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 82649 | -16364 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -30 | -20 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term probability of an increase in urea production is high, and there is an expectation that inventory may rise after the end of the environmental protection warning. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1710 - 1760 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Although agriculture is in the off - season for rigid demand, there may be a slight increase in local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui, while commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The start - up of compound fertilizers has decreased slightly this week, and the short - term enterprise device start - up rate may fluctuate slightly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1740 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 196,387 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9,020 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 22,506 lots; the exchange warehouse receipt is 10,750 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 318 lots [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1730, 1710, 1720, 1730, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of 0, 30, 10, 10, and 10 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 350 US dollars/ton, and FOB China's main port is 390 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 13.8 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.5 million tons; enterprise inventory is 106.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate is 80.69%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.16%; the daily output is 195,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,800 tons. The export volume is 60 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 million tons; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 39.37%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.25%; the melamine start - up rate is 58.55%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.31%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers is 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 36 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4382,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,700 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons, or 9.39%. As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons, or 28.26%. As of December 25, the production of Chinese urea enterprises was 13.334 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 325,000 tons, or 2.38%; the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [2]. Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a phase of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a state of tight supply - demand balance. The long - term outlook is positive, and it is advised to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a situation of slightly decreasing supply and slowing demand. It is suggested to trade with a light position in a volatile market, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 22,275 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract was 2,646 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan [2] - The main contract positions of SHFE aluminum decreased by 6,450 hands to 290,474 hands; the main contract positions of alumina increased by 134,943 hands to 245,088 hands [2] - LME aluminum cancelled warrants remained unchanged at 73,225 tons; LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,450 tons to 521,050 tons [2] - The SHFE aluminum net position of the top 20 decreased by 177 hands to - 12,420 hands; the SHFE - LME ratio decreased by 0.06 to 7.53 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum decreased by 50 yuan to 21,980 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous decreased by 10 yuan to 2,630 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 105 yuan to 605 yuan/ton; the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 5 yuan to - 295 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production was 813.8 million tons, with a national monthly opening rate of 84.37% (down 0.92%) and a total capacity utilization rate of 86.51% (down 0.45%) [2] - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part increased by 25.92 million tons to 730.23 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 million tons, up 8.34 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 101,652.54 tons to 53.70 million tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased by 1 million tons to 4,524.20 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum opening rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2] - Aluminum product production increased by 23.70 million tons to 593.10 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7 million tons to 57 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9.17 million tons to 70 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.03 million tons to 3.06 million tons [2] - The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2] - Automobile production increased by 240,000 vehicles to 3.519 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE aluminum increased by 0.10% to 13.00%; the 40 - day historical volatility remained unchanged at 12.01% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 0.0284% to 15.75%; the call - put ratio of SHFE aluminum options decreased by 0.0021 to 1.64 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, emphasizing the stability of the capital market [2] - Ningbo Sbei Technology plans to expand an aluminum alloy die - casting production project in Thailand, with a total investment of 400 million yuan [2] - Chalco Shenyang Aluminum and Magnesium Institute signed a design contract for a 75,000 - ton/year electrolytic aluminum project with a Malaysian company [2] - Nanning Chantou Xinglv New Materials plans to build a high - precision battery aluminum foil and can lid pull - ring material project [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a stage of increasing supply and stable high - level demand, with continuous destocking of industrial inventory and a positive outlook. It is recommended to trade lightly with a slightly bullish and volatile strategy, while paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [2]. - The option market sentiment is bearish with a slightly rising implied volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 123,520 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 127,079 hands, up 6,244 hands; the position of the main contract is 607,187 hands, down 40,179 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 1,920 yuan/ton, down 680 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 17,101 hands/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 102,250 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 18,620 yuan/ton, up 4,600 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,365 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 13,225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,773 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons; the monthly import volume is 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh [2]. - The price of manganese - acid lithium is 37,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 180,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium is 346,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 167,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 149,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 161,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 40,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 63%, down 1% [2]. - The monthly production volume of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,880,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,823,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 47.48%, up 0.74%; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles is 14,780,000 vehicles, up 3,518,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 300,000 vehicles, up 44,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles is 2.315 million vehicles, up 1.174 million vehicles [2]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 46.14%, up 0.25%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 53.78%, up 0.22% [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 108,159 contracts, down 2,613 contracts; the total put position is 193,653 contracts, up 13,066 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 179.04%, up 16.0189%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.46%, up 0.0492% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd.'s lithium mine mining project in Yifeng County is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [2]. - Do - fluoride expects the supply - demand and price of lithium hexafluorophosphate to be optimistic next year. The company's existing production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate is about 60,000 tons/year, and the expansion plan will be adjusted according to market demand. By the end of next year, the battery sector's production capacity is expected to reach 50 GWh, with a planned shipment of about 30 GWh [2]. - The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee held its fourth - quarter regular meeting, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, strengthen monetary policy regulation, and promote the low - level operation of the social comprehensive financing cost. It emphasized maintaining the stability of the capital market without mentioning the real estate market [2]. - Pan Technology plans to adjust the production capacity of the third - phase project of its "Large - scale Production Project of Cathode Materials for New Energy Vehicle Power and Energy Storage Batteries" from 62,500 tons/year to 100,000 tons/year [2].