证券研究报告 2024 年 10 月 31 日 湘财证券研究所 相关研究： 1.《20241019湘财证券-豪迈科技 002595.SZ-全球轮胎模具龙头， 机床业务发展迅速》 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 5.5 18.7 36.8 绝对收益 10.5 34.1 45.3 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 公司研究 豪迈科技（002595）事件点评 公司三季度业绩快速增长，合同负债创新高 核心要点： ❑ 公司发布 2024 年三季报，业绩保持快速增长 2024 年 10 月 28 日，公司发布 2024 年第三季度报告。2024 年前三季 度，公司营业总收入约 63.6 亿元，同比增长 20.0%；归母净利润约 14.2 亿 元，同比增长 21.2%；扣非后归母净利润约 13.5 亿元，同比增长 18.3%； 经营活动现金净流量约 5.9 亿元，同比减少 48.4%；基本每股收益 1.78 元， 同比增长 21.3%；加权平均 ROE 约 15.4%，同比上升 0.4 个百分点。2024 年第三季度，公司营业收入 22.3 亿元，同比增长 26.2%；归母净利润 4.6 亿元，同比增长 15 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - The Chinese medicine industry is currently under short-term pressure due to high base effects, weak consumption in the first half of the year, and centralized procurement of traditional Chinese medicine and Chinese patent medicines. However, the long-term positive trend remains unchanged with the gradual implementation of favorable policies and adjustments in medical insurance negotiations [5][6] - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: innovation in traditional Chinese medicine, brand rejuvenation, and benefits from state-owned enterprise reforms [5][6][7] Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector index rose by 3.39% last week, outperforming other pharmaceutical sub-sectors [3][9] - The overall pharmaceutical sector index increased by 3.11% during the same period [3][9] Valuation - The current PE (ttm) for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.59X, with a PB (lf) of 2.43X, indicating a valuation premium of 114.46% compared to the CSI 300 index [4][5] - The PE has increased by 0.91X week-on-week, while the PB has risen by 0.07X [4] Company Performance - Among the 55 listed companies that reported Q3 results, 33% achieved year-on-year revenue growth, and 40% reported positive net profit growth [4][5] - Notable performers include Changyao Holdings, Xintian Pharmaceutical, and Huasheng Technology, while companies like Lingrui Pharmaceutical and Fangsheng Pharmaceutical lagged behind [3][4][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][25]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading player in the domestic forklift industry, with rapid growth in overseas operations [3][5]. - In the third quarter of 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 9.1% year-on-year, indicating strong growth [4]. - The company has been actively expanding its international presence and enhancing its electric vehicle offerings, which has contributed to its improving profitability [5][6]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of approximately 12.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit of about 1.57 billion yuan, up 21.2% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 16.90 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, and net profit is expected to be 2.03 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 17.8% [7][25]. - The gross profit margin is forecasted to improve from 20.8% in 2023 to 23.1% in 2024 [7]. Internationalization and Electrification - The company has established over 10 overseas sales companies and service centers, significantly expanding its global marketing and after-sales service network [5]. - From 2020 to 2023, the revenue from overseas markets surged from 1.74 billion yuan to 6.54 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 55.3% [5]. - The company has launched a full range of high-pressure lithium battery forklifts, leading the industry in electrification efforts [5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in domestic forklift demand due to increasing policy support, alongside sustained growth in overseas markets [6][25]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its market share in the new energy forklift sector, driven by the transition from lead-acid to lithium battery solutions [5][25].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its business, with revenue and profit growth in line with expectations [2] - The company has effectively controlled costs, leading to an increase in profit margins [3] - The three-dimensional electrophysiology surgeries have seen rapid growth, while the interventional business remains stable [4] - The company continues to invest in R&D, with significant progress in various projects [5] - The overall growth potential of the company is strong, with projected revenue and profit increases in the coming years [7] Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.525 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.63%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 528 million, up 30.97% [2] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 72.69%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points from the same period in 2023 [3] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 34.24%, up 1.56 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.093 billion, 2.665 billion, and 3.355 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 694 million, 876 million, and 1.090 billion [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue of 17.91 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.26 billion yuan, up 68.4% year-on-year. In the third quarter, revenue was 5.83 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year and 11.9% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 420 million yuan, up 64.8% year-on-year but down 19.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company’s refrigerant sales volume decreased quarter-on-quarter due to the traditional off-season, but prices increased by approximately 13.9% due to production quota constraints. The company is expected to benefit from a high profitability cycle in refrigerants as the traditional consumption off-season ends and a new cooling year begins [2][3] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 25.16 billion yuan, 29.08 billion yuan, and 31.62 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.8%, 15.6%, and 8.8% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.78 billion yuan, 2.45 billion yuan, and 3.17 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.5%, 37.8%, and 29.1% [3] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 5.9% to 14.5% over the same period [3] Market Position - The company is a leading player in the fluorochemical industry with a complete fluorochemical industrial chain. It is expected to benefit from a tight supply situation in the refrigerant market due to quota policies [2][3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4][29] Core Insights - The medical service sector has shown a significant recovery, with a notable increase in stock prices for leading companies such as Haocen Medical (+27.1%) and Nuosige (+25.8%) [2][5][14] - The current PE (ttm) for the medical service sector is 33.00X, with a PB (lf) of 2.96X, indicating a slight increase from the previous week [2][18] - The medical service sector's valuation is at a historical percentile of 17.74%, suggesting potential for further growth [2][18] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The medical and biological sector rose by 3.11%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.32% [2][7] - The medical service II sub-sector reported a 5.21% increase, indicating strong performance compared to other sub-sectors [2][11] Company Performance - Notable performers in the medical service sector include Haocen Medical, Nuosige, and Boteng Co., with significant year-on-year revenue growth [5][14] - Companies like Nuotai Biological experienced a decline of 17.7%, attributed to a slowdown in growth compared to the first half of the year [5][14] Valuation Metrics - The medical service sector's PE has increased by 1.61X over the past week, while the PB has risen by 0.14X [2][18] - The sector's valuation metrics indicate a recovery trend, with the potential for further improvements as the impact of COVID-19 wanes [5][29] Industry News - Recent government policies aim to enhance the support system for childbirth and improve medical services for children, which may positively impact the medical service sector [3][25][26] - The 2024 medical insurance directory negotiations have commenced, with results expected in November, which could influence the pricing and availability of medical services [3][27][28]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The vaccine industry is currently under pressure due to high base effects, price declines of major products, and excess capacity. However, long-term drivers such as policy support, increasing demand, and technological advancements remain intact, which will promote the industry's growth [9][19] - The industry is characterized by a "variety is king" feature, where companies with technological innovation advantages will have stronger product capabilities. It is recommended to focus on leading companies with technological and platform advantages, as well as a rich pipeline of key products [9][19] Market Performance - The vaccine sector saw a 2.69% increase last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector rose by 3.11%. Year-to-date, the vaccine sector has declined by 30.15% [3][11] - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 30.4X, with a PB (lf) of 2.22X, indicating a valuation premium of 136.3% relative to the CSI 300 index [5][9] Company Performance - Among 14 listed vaccine companies, only Kanghua Bio achieved positive growth in both revenue and net profit in the first three quarters. Most companies' performance was negatively impacted by price declines in vaccine products [8][18] - Notable companies with strong performance last week included Jindike, Wantai Bio, and Olin Bio, while companies like Zhifei Bio and Liaoning Chengda performed poorly [4] Industry Dynamics and Announcements - Olin Bio received clinical trial approval for its trivalent influenza virus split vaccine, marking a significant development in the domestic market [6][17] - Watson Bio's subsidiary received a product registration certificate for its 13-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine in Oman, enhancing its international market presence [6][17] - Zhifei Bio's quadrivalent influenza virus split vaccine received clinical trial approval, and its application for production registration was accepted [8][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][6][25] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently transitioning from peak to off-peak season, with a slight decline in apparent consumption of steel. Although the supply side's growth has slowed, steel mills are still increasing their molten iron production, leading to a more relaxed supply-demand balance. As the traditional peak season ends and temperatures drop in northern regions, there is a risk of further demand decline, and the market is expected to operate weakly in the short term. In the long term, the industry is expected to develop towards high-quality growth, with leading companies that have scale advantages becoming more valuable for investment [6][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The steel sector increased by 0.24% last week, underperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.55 percentage points. The sector's PE ratio is 16.25 times, at the 65.95 percentile over the past decade, while the PB ratio is 0.92 times, at the 18.2 percentile [2][3]. Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 25, the total production of five major steel products was 8.8048 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.82%. The operating rate of sample steel mills was 82.16%, up 0.46 percentage points week-on-week [4]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.938 million tons, down 1.9% week-on-week, with construction materials consumption down 5.6% [4][17]. - Inventory: Total inventory of five major steel products was 12.594 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.02% [4]. Profitability and Pricing - The profitability of steel mills has rapidly declined, with the profitability rate of 247 sample steel companies at 64.96%, down 9.52 percentage points week-on-week. The price indices for various steel products have shown mixed trends, with rebar prices down 3.05% [5][17][19]. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, the industry is in a critical phase of transitioning between peak and off-peak seasons, with a potential for further demand decline. In the long term, the focus on high-quality development and regional capacity consolidation will enhance the investment value of leading companies [6][25].

1.《政策推动信心恢复，估值率先 修复》 2024.10.09 2.《政策托底，需求有望改善》 2024.10.17 3.《预期向好，关注基本面边际变 化》 2024.10.22 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对 收益 -1.1 -3.6 -20.9 绝对 收益 16.9 12.2 -7.5 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 证券研究报告 2024 年 10 月 29 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 食品饮料行业周报 三季报密集发布，关注业绩分化 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 10 月 21 日-10 月 25 日，食品饮料行业上涨 2.19% 上周，上证指数上涨 1.17%，深证成指上涨 2.53%，沪深 300 指数上涨 0.79%， 创业板指上涨 2.00%。申万食品饮料行业上涨 2.19%，涨跌幅排名 21/31， 跑赢沪深300指数1.40pct，食饮子板块涨跌不一，其中其他酒类上涨7.37%， 保健品上涨 6.31%，零食上涨 5.34%。 10 月 28 日，飞天茅台当年原装批发参考价为 2230 元/瓶，较前一周下跌 2.19%，飞天茅台当年散装批发参考价为 2200 元/瓶，较前一周下跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown positive growth in both revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 8.45 billion and net profit at 2.687 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.19% and 11.73% respectively [2][3]. - The gross margin stands at 45.44%, a decrease of 3.01 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin increased by 0.15 percentage points to 31.79% [2]. - The company has effectively improved its channel construction, enhancing its sales network and online presence, which has contributed to its revenue growth [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2024, the pharmaceutical manufacturing segment generated revenue of 4.612 billion, up 19.71% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical distribution segment saw revenue of 3.153 billion, a 3.08% increase [3]. - The cosmetics segment achieved revenue of 525 million, marking a 21.92% growth [3]. Product Performance - The liver disease medication segment generated revenue of 4.283 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.24%, contributing 50.69% to total revenue [4]. - The cardiovascular medication segment achieved revenue of 268 million, up 11.66%, while other medications generated 60 million, growing by 21.16% [4]. - In Q3 2024, liver disease medications alone accounted for 58.68% of total revenue, with a revenue increase of 25.30% year-on-year [4]. Future Projections - The company expects revenues of 11.168 billion, 12.531 billion, and 13.848 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at 3.092 billion, 3.685 billion, and 4.215 billion [6][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 5.13, 6.11, and 6.99 for the same years [6].