Group 1: Trade Impact and Economic Data - In 2024, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. are valued at $119.5 billion, accounting for 29.5% of total exports[1] - In January-February 2025, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. reached $19.56 billion, representing 30% of national exports, a 16.5% increase year-on-year[2] - The U.S. imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam, higher than most Southeast Asian countries[3] Group 2: Government Response and Market Adjustments - Vietnam has reduced tariffs on 23 categories of imported goods, with some rates lower than U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods[4] - Vietnam is negotiating to purchase over $90 billion worth of U.S. goods, including 250 Boeing aircraft and $6 billion in LNG[5] - The textile and apparel industry in Vietnam has a 40% export ratio to the U.S., facing significant pressure from tariffs[6] Group 3: Structural Reforms and Future Outlook - Vietnam has restructured its administrative units from 63 to 34, aiming to improve governance efficiency[7] - The country is shifting towards a FOB production model to share tax burdens with clients and expand into new markets like Russia and Australia[8] - Southeast Asian countries are increasing energy imports to reduce trade surpluses with the U.S., potentially affecting OPEC+ pricing power[9]

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 再议供给压力及对资金面影响 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 21 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 利率方向回归下行后，幅度取决于资金： | 2025-04-14 | | --- | --- | | 固定收益市场周观察 | | | 转债市场 25 年一季度回顾及展望 | 2025-04-08 | | 4 月或是供给压力缓和期： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's core revenue performance is strong, supporting a continued recovery in profit growth. As of the end of 2024, revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to the parent company have shown year-on-year growth rates of +2.6 percentage points, +0.5 percentage points, and +0.7 percentage points respectively. The increase in net interest income is supported by strong asset deployment and a slowdown in net interest margin contraction [9] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth rate of 6.6% in 2025, 6.9% in 2026, and 7.9% in 2027, with corresponding BVPS of 14.11, 15.59, and 17.22 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PB of 0.70X, 0.63X, and 0.57X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported an operating income of 74,293 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The operating profit was 38,882 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 47.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 28,750 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 3,403,362 million yuan in 2023 to 4,940,555 million yuan by 2027, indicating a robust expansion strategy [12] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.89% as of the end of 2024, with a focus on improving asset quality through increased efforts in non-performing loan disposal [9] Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company's stock is set at 12.57 yuan, representing a 20% premium over comparable companies, with a projected PB of 0.89 for 2025 [3][5] - The company’s average P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 5.84 in 2023 to 4.82 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation relative to its earnings growth [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's core revenue performance is strong, supporting a continued recovery in profit growth. As of the end of 2024, revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to the parent company have shown year-on-year growth rates of +2.6 percentage points, +0.5 percentage points, and +0.7 percentage points respectively. The increase in net interest income is supported by strong asset deployment and a slowdown in the narrowing of net interest margins [9] - The company is expected to see a net profit growth rate of 6.6% in 2025, 6.9% in 2026, and 7.9% in 2027, with corresponding BVPS of 14.11, 15.59, and 17.22 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PB of 0.70X, 0.63X, and 0.57X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Given the strong credit demand in the region and significant dividend yield advantages, a 20% valuation premium is applied compared to peers, leading to a target price of 12.57 yuan per share [3][5] Financial Information Summary - For 2023A, the company reported operating income of 74,293 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The projected operating income for 2024A is 80,815 million yuan, reflecting an 8.8% increase [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A was 28,750 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3%. The forecast for 2024A is 31,843 million yuan, indicating a 10.8% increase [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 3,403,362 million yuan in 2023A to 4,940,555 million yuan by 2027E, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in oil prices due to easing U.S. tariff policies and tightening supply expectations. It emphasizes a focus on leading companies with strong alpha that are less correlated with oil prices, suggesting a bottom-fishing strategy. The report also recommends paying attention to domestic demand and opportunities in new material substitutions, particularly in the agricultural chemical sector during the spring farming season [13][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views - The report suggests maintaining a focus on leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices, while also monitoring domestic demand and new material substitution opportunities [13][15]. - Recommended companies include: - Huangma Technology: A leader in specialty polyether, showing signs of recovery from previous macro demand pressures [13]. - Runfeng Co., Ltd.: A rare company with global formulation registration and sales channels [14]. - Guoguang Co., Ltd.: A leader in differentiated formulations in the plant growth regulator sector [14]. - Hualu Hengsheng: Benefiting from recovering core product prices and declining coal prices, leading to improved price differentials [14]. 2. Oil and Chemical Price Information - As of April 16, Brent oil prices increased by 4.9% to $67.96 per barrel. Despite the IEA lowering oil demand growth forecasts, market concerns over U.S. tariff policies eased, contributing to the price increase [15]. - The report monitors 188 chemical products, with the top three price increases being: - Trichloroethylene: Up 16.3% - Butane: Up 8.9% - WTI: Up 7.7% - The top three price decreases were: - Liquid chlorine: Down 62.3% - D4: Down 17.8% - Anthracene oil: Down 12.4% [16][17]. 3. Price Spread Information - The top three price spread increases for the week were: - Carbon black spread: Up 64.5% - Calcium carbide PVC spread: Up 57.8% - Monoammonium phosphate: Up 14.5% - The top three price spread decreases were: - Butyl acrylate spread: Down 50.7% - Hydrogen peroxide spread: Down 44.4% - MTP spread: Down 30.2% [19][20].

呼吸机业务良好，血糖管理快速拓展 ——美好医疗 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 2024 年报，我们下调收入预测，上调毛利率预测，我们预测公司 2024- 2026 年 EPS 分别为 1.09、1.37、1.68 元（原预测 25-26 年 EPS 为 1.23、1.51 元），由于公司家用呼吸机业务增势良好，同时公司产品管线持续丰富，新业务、 新客户不断开发，长期空间广阔。根据可比公司 2025 年平均估值，给予公司 2025 年 31 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 33.79 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 大客户依赖风险；下游库存积压风险；新业务拓展不及预期风险；汇率波动风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,338 | 1,594 | 1,937 | 2,355 | 2,878 | | 同比增长 (%) | -5.5% | 19.2% | 21.5% | 21.6% | 22.2% | | 营业 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 20 日 | 张书铭 | 021-63325888*5152 | | --- | --- | | 17 | zhangshuming@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860517080001 | | 张志鹏 | zhangzhipeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522020002 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | | | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：——策略周报 | 2025-04-17 | | --- | --- | | 0414 | | | 关税风暴，关注国内政策对冲：——策略 | 2025-04-07 | | 周报 0407 | | | 从政策博弈到基本面 ...

ESG 研究 | 定期报告 加快建设农业强国，推进农业全面绿色转 型 ——东方证券 ESG 双周报第六十八期 ESG 指环境（Environment），社会（Social），治理（Governance）的英文首字母缩 写，是投资和评估企业的新理念新方法。在分析和投资的决策过程中，不仅要重视企业 的财务信息，也要重视 ESG 非财务信息。考虑 ESG 因素的投资也叫负责任投资，具有 受托人责任，旨在推动公司把社会环境等要求融入到企业业务中去，降低风险，实现价 值创造，产生长期回报。本系列主要从这一角度出发，针对国内外 ESG 相关的政策和热 点进行跟踪和梳理，为长期投资的方向和方法论提供参考。 研究结论 风险提示 卷首语 | 财政部成功发行首笔人民币绿色主权债 | 2025-04-13 | | --- | --- | | 券：——ESG 企业动态双周报第二十九期 | | | 美国证监会终止气候披露规则辩护，欧盟 | 2025-04-06 | | ESG披露推迟：——东方证券ESG双周报 | | | 第六十七期 | | | 顺丰启动航空碳中和计划，亚马逊推出碳 | 2025-03-29 | | 信用投资：——ES ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Continuous attention is recommended for investment opportunities in the steel sector, especially given the recent changes in tariffs and the domestic market's pricing dynamics [14][8] - The steel industry has experienced a three-year adjustment period, and current valuations present a high cost-performance ratio [14] - The upstream iron ore supply landscape is expected to undergo significant changes, potentially leading to a recovery of profitability within the domestic steel industry [14] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Continuous focus on investment opportunities in the steel sector is emphasized, particularly in light of recent tariff increases and potential economic stagnation in the U.S. [14] - The steel sector has seen a three-year downturn, but current conditions suggest improved profitability and stability for leading companies [14] 2. Steel Market Overview - The weekly consumption of rebar increased to 2.74 million tons, reflecting an 8.37% week-on-week rise [15][18] - The overall price index for common steel decreased by 0.72%, with specific products showing varied price movements [15][37] 3. Industrial Metals - The copper smelting fee has deepened into negative territory, indicating challenges in the copper market [17] - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, leading to improved profitability for producers [17] 4. Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a notable increase, with COMEX gold closing at $3,341.3 per ounce, a 2.65% rise week-on-week [17] - The increase in tariffs is expected to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the gold sector [17] 5. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 57.44% in February 2025, indicating strong growth in the new energy sector [16] - The demand for nickel and cobalt remains robust, with notable increases in production and consumption in the electric vehicle market [45][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 30.24 CNY, based on a projected PE ratio of 24 times for 2025 [2][6]. Core Views - The company's digital energy business is experiencing rapid growth, continuously acquiring new projects, which is expected to become a new growth driver [1][10]. - The financial forecasts have been adjusted, with EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 set at 1.26 CNY, 1.63 CNY, and 2.02 CNY respectively, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [2][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of 12.70 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, with a net profit of 784 million CNY, up 28.0% [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.28 billion CNY, 18.14 billion CNY, and 21.50 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 20.3%, 18.8%, and 18.5% [4][10]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 20.1% in 2024 to 21.7% in 2027, while net profit margins are projected to increase from 6.2% to 7.9% over the same period [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to grow from 0.94 CNY in 2024 to 2.02 CNY in 2027, indicating strong earnings growth potential [4][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 24.6 in 2024 to 11.4 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [4][10].