投资策略 | 定期报告 中东冲突加剧，大宗涨价升温 策略周度思考 20260301 研究结论 风险提示 市场表现不及预期、风险定价可能不充分、产业发展不及预期。 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 张陈 执业证书编号：S0860526010004 zhangchen2@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 春节假期，全球重点仍是地缘政治：策略 周度思考 20260224 2026-02-24 中盘蓝筹系列：避险情绪助推消费，化工 农业仍是重点：策略周度思考 20260208 2026-02-08 中盘蓝筹系列：大宗涨价的两条主线：策 略周度思考 20260201 2026-02-01 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 投资策略 | 定期报告 —— 中东冲突加剧，大宗涨价升温 目 录 周度思考：中东冲突加剧，大宗涨价升温.......................................................4 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The utility sector is expected to experience steady growth in electricity demand, with macroeconomic trading catalyzing the revaluation of low-asset physical utilities [7] - The anticipated recovery of pessimistic earnings expectations supports the current upward trend in the sector, with expectations for better-than-expected performance in Q1 2026 for thermal power companies [7] - The report emphasizes the need for further reforms in electricity pricing to support the increasingly complex new energy system in China [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The utility sector outperformed the broader market indices, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rising by 1.1% and the Wind All A Index by 2.7%, while the Shenwan Utility Index increased by 5.7% [41] - The report highlights that the thermal power sector has shown the largest weekly increase of 8.9% [43] Electricity Prices - In Guangdong, the average spot electricity price decreased by 23.6% year-on-year to 295 yuan/MWh [10] - Shanxi's average spot electricity price saw a significant drop of 62.3% year-on-year, averaging 156 yuan/MWh [13] Coal Prices - The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal rose to 751 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.0% [16] - The report notes that the price of imported coal from Indonesia has also increased, with the Guangzhou port price reaching 852 yuan/ton, up 5.7% week-on-week [18] Inventory Levels - As of March 1, 2026, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.25 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.6% [26] - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption of power plants in 25 provinces rose by 30.5% week-on-week [29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the utility sector as a long-term investment, particularly in thermal power companies such as Jiantou Energy, Huadian International, and Guodian Power [7] - For hydropower, it suggests investing in high-quality large hydropower projects [7] - The report also highlights the growth potential in nuclear power and wind energy sectors, recommending companies like China General Nuclear Power and Longyuan Power [7]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 —— 美伊冲突，影响几何？ 美伊冲突，影响几何？ 研究结论 风险提示 地缘局势存在不断变化的可能，美伊冲突的烈度与时长存在不确定性。 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | --- | --- | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 刘姜枫 | 执业证书编号：S0860526010002 | | | liujiangfeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S086052 ...

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 政策扰动频发，供给收缩预期强化 ——钴锂金属行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 短期来看，津巴布韦出口扰动叠加节后补库情绪共振，锂价弹性明显放大，但短期仍需 警惕津巴政府风向突转、情绪回落带来的波动加剧。中期维度下，下游储能需求热仍在 延续，供应端更常态化的扰动或放大市场整体担忧情绪，锂价中枢在二季度前有进一步 上移空间。钴板块受原料成本支撑，到港量依旧不足，整体下行空间有限，预计短期内 维持偏强震荡。 风险提示 新能源汽车增速不及预期，储能装机增速不及预期。 | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | --- | --- | | 行业 | 有色金属行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2026 年 02 月 28 日 | | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宁紫微 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120005 | | | ningziwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report is that gold prices are driven by trading issues rather than expectations, indicating that market trading factors significantly influence gold prices [4][7][9] - The report emphasizes that traditional pricing logic for gold is based on two main factors: opportunity cost, represented by real interest rates, and risk aversion, represented by the US dollar index [10][14] - Historical data since 1975 shows that gold prices have been influenced by both investment attributes and monetary attributes, which are fundamentally trading issues [10][11] Group 2 - Future gold prices should focus on trading costs, trading sentiment, and trading structure, with the current low trading costs supporting potential price increases [15][20] - The report notes that the rapid rise in gold prices since 2023 has led to significant leverage trading, which has created structural issues in the market [14][15] - The report predicts limited price increases for gold in 2026, despite potential for a return to previous highs, as trading sentiment may correct if it becomes overheated [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the lithium and cobalt sectors, indicating clear investment value and suggesting active positioning in these areas [8][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply disruptions, particularly from Zimbabwe, have intensified expectations for supply contraction, leading to a significant rebound in lithium prices post-holiday. The lithium price is expected to continue rising in the second quarter due to ongoing demand in the energy storage sector and supply-side disturbances [4][12][13]. - Cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs, with insufficient arrival volumes at ports, indicating limited downward space in the short term [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Supply Disruptions Trigger Lithium Price Rebound - The lithium sector is experiencing price acceleration due to supply disturbances and post-holiday replenishment. Futures contracts have seen significant weekly increases, with the Wuxi contract rising 16.95% to 174,600 CNY/ton and the Guangzhou contract increasing 15.33% to 176,000 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices have also surged, with a reported increase of 372 USD/ton to 2,372 USD/ton [8][12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Zimbabwe has announced an immediate suspension of all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports, aiming to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability. This move is expected to compress the available supply from Africa, increasing uncertainty and risk premiums in the raw material sector [16]. - Core Lithium has agreed to sell its lithium spodumene inventory to Glencore, which is expected to provide significant momentum for potential resumption of production [16]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Mixed Production Changes and Price Increases - In January, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4%. The report indicates a structural adjustment in inventory levels [17][18]. - The report notes that cobalt production in January saw a month-on-month decline of 5% for sulfate and 8% for chloride, while year-on-year increases were recorded at 13% and 32%, respectively [20][29]. 4. Lithium Salt Import and Export Data - In December, lithium carbonate imports rose by 9% month-on-month, while hydroxide exports surged by 88%. This reflects a strong demand and supply dynamic in the lithium market [34][40]. 5. Price Trends in New Energy Metals - The average weekly price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 18.35%, while industrial-grade prices rose by 18.83%. The average price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide also saw a significant increase of 15.35% [63][64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Insights - The strategic importance of the phosphorus chemical sector has significantly increased, highlighted by recent U.S. policies aimed at securing domestic supplies of phosphorus and glyphosate, which is heavily reliant on Chinese imports [7] - The polyurethane industry is experiencing positive changes, with major suppliers raising overseas prices for MDI products, indicating a strong desire for profitability recovery among competitors [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report continues to favor recovery opportunities across various chemical sub-industries, recommending: - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) - PVC industry players: Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated) - Refining industry leaders: Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) - Agricultural chemical chain leaders: Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), Xinyangfeng (000902, Buy), Shidanli (002588, Not Rated), Yuntu Holdings (002539, Not Rated), and Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy) for pesticide formulations [3] - The report also highlights potential in the phosphorus chemical sector driven by rapid growth in energy storage, with companies like Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated) and Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) being of interest [3] - In the oxalic acid industry, recommended companies include Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), and Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026 [5] Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to return to a fundamental narrative in 2026, supported by policy financial tools and resilient asset expansion. The net interest margin is anticipated to stabilize during the ongoing deposit repricing cycle, while structural risks are expected to receive policy support [3][48] - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1. High-quality mid-sized banks with solid fundamentals, including Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy) 2. Large state-owned banks with stable fundamentals and good defensive value, including Bank of Communications (601328, Not Rated) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) [3][49] Summary by Sections Net Profit Growth - As of Q4 2025, the net profit growth of commercial banks turned positive at +2.3%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of +2.3 percentage points, continuing the upward trend since Q2 2025. The growth rate for city and rural commercial banks improved significantly, rising by 11.1 percentage points and 11.9 percentage points compared to Q3 2025, respectively [8][9] Asset Growth and Credit Stability - Total asset growth for commercial banks reached 9.01% as of Q4 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of +0.2 percentage points. The credit growth remained stable, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.3% [12][12] Net Interest Margin Stabilization - The net interest margin for commercial banks remained stable at 1.42% in Q4 2025. The asset yield is under pressure, but there are positive marginal changes observed, with the new loan interest rate's year-on-year decline narrowing significantly [29][29] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for commercial banks was 1.50% as of Q4 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2 basis points. The improvement in asset quality for rural commercial banks is primarily driven by significant NPL write-offs [33][34] Capital Adequacy - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks increased by 4 basis points to 12.60% as of Q4 2025, indicating an improvement in capital replenishment capacity [44][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the machinery equipment industry, indicating a strong performance relative to market benchmarks [6]. Core Insights - The performance of Yushu Robotics at the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival showcased significant advancements in robot capabilities, including improved positioning accuracy, speed, joint strength, and explosive power, reflecting hardware progress in components such as motors and sensors [3][9]. - The report highlights the importance of breakthroughs in motor performance and 3D environmental perception, which are crucial for the successful execution of complex robotic tasks [9]. - The report suggests focusing on domestic manufacturers in the motor and perception fields, with specific investment recommendations including Wolong Electric Drive (600580), Jiangsu Leili (300660), and Obi Zhongguang-UW (688322), all currently un-rated [3]. Summary by Sections - **Industry Overview**: The machinery equipment industry is experiencing dynamic tracking and is positioned for growth amid global geopolitical disturbances [5][8]. - **Technological Advancements**: Yushu Robotics demonstrated multiple global technological breakthroughs during its performance, including high-difficulty maneuvers that require enhanced motor torque density and joint explosive power [9]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report identifies specific companies to watch in the context of advancements in robotics and related technologies, emphasizing the potential for significant returns in the sector [3].

Group 1 - The report concludes that in a low interest rate environment, dividend investments do not consistently outperform but rather exhibit rotational performance, similar to experiences in the US and Japan [5][19] - In the US, during low interest rate periods, the overall success rate of dividend investments did not exceed 50%, indicating a lack of significant advantage [8][10] - Japan's experience shows that while dividend investments can outperform in the long term, they also exhibit clear rotational characteristics rather than sustained superiority [13][19] Group 2 - Dividend investment strategies should be based on style analysis rather than solely on dividend yield, as there is no stable linear relationship between dividend yield and stock price performance [20][23] - The report categorizes dividend indices into five types based on risk levels, with classifications based on monthly return correlations and sample space considerations [25][28] - The risk ranking of dividend indices shows that A-share low volatility dividend indices have the lowest risk, while A-share quality dividend indices have the highest risk [30][29] Group 3 - Strategic allocation suggests that dividend indices perform best in a stock-weak, bond-strong environment, while high-risk dividend indices should be prioritized in a stock-strong, bond-weak environment [37][40] - Tactical enhancement strategies involve utilizing reversal effects for timing, with significant reversal signals observed in A-share dividend indices over a six-month period [41][46] - The report emphasizes the effectiveness of ETF-based dividend strategies, showing significant improvements in returns and risk control compared to single index investments [47][52]