25 年业绩符合预期 26 年有望边际提速 核心观点 伟星股份 002003.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司本次业绩快报以及下游服饰行业的经营形势和我们的草根跟踪，我们调整 对公司的盈利预测（主要下调了未来 3 年纽扣和拉链的收入增速、考虑股权激励、 人民币升值预期和折旧等因素上调了期间费用比率）预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收 益分别为 0.54、0.57 和 0.66 元（原预测为 0.58、0.64 和 0.75 元），DCF 估值对 应目标价为 15.78 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 下游服饰复苏预期、贸易摩擦、汇率波动和海外产能爬坡低于预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,907 | 4,674 | 4,787 | 5,147 | 5,616 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.7% | 19.7% | 2.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 67 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 3 月债市或仍陷"纠结期" 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 | | | | | | | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BXF200 | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | 021-63326320 | | | 转债逆势回撤，调整而非反转：可转债市 | 2026-03-02 | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall travel and tourism data aligns with pre-holiday expectations, showing structural differentiation where "scenic spots and travel chains outperform dining and retail" [3] - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic travel during the 2026 Spring Festival, with 596 million domestic trips and a total expenditure of 803.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.74% and 5.5% year-on-year increase respectively [7] - The report notes that the demand elasticity is high, with cross-regional personnel flow exceeding 2.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.2% [7] Summary by Sections Travel and Tourism Performance - The 2026 Spring Festival saw a record 596 million domestic trips, with daily average growth of 5.74% compared to the previous year [7] - Domestic tourism expenditure reached 803.5 billion yuan, with a daily average increase of 5.5% [7] - The report emphasizes that the number of inbound travelers increased by 21.8%, indicating a stronger recovery in inbound tourism [7] Scenic Spots and Hotel Performance - Key scenic destinations showed strong performance, with the Three Gorges receiving 421,000 visitors, a daily increase of 102.9% [7] - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism received 1.1428 million visitors, achieving a total revenue of 70.9237 million yuan, with a daily revenue increase of 27.01% [7] Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - The report notes a trend towards longer trips and increased interest in county-level tourism, with some county hotels seeing bookings increase by over 400% [7] - The demographic of travelers is expanding, with a notable increase in travelers aged 50 and above [7] Dining Sector - The dining sector showed steady recovery, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a daily sales increase of 5.7% during the Spring Festival [7] - Major cities like Shanghai experienced a 15.4% year-on-year increase in offline consumption during the holiday [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, are significantly impacting global asset prices and increasing risk aversion, although the direct impact on the Chinese economy is manageable [4][6] - It emphasizes the strengthening of mid-cap blue-chip stocks as a market style, suggesting that investment opportunities will concentrate on key sectors such as critical minerals, chemicals, energy, and agriculture, as well as technological breakthroughs representing new productive forces [4][6] - The report notes that rising commodity prices, driven by geopolitical factors, are expected to affect the agricultural sector, with a confirmed upward trend in grain prices and favorable fundamentals for planting and seed industries [4][6] Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks while being mindful of market rhythms, indicating that the current market environment is characterized by a strong oscillation pattern [4][6] - It recommends specific ETFs related to mid-cap blue-chip stocks and cash flow [4][6] Industry Strategy - The agricultural sector is highlighted as having growth potential due to geopolitical disturbances leading to price increase expectations, with domestic agricultural companies likely to expand their growth limits through international markets [4][6] - The report identifies specific agricultural companies as potential investment targets, including Hainan Rubber, Longping High-Tech, Muyuan Foods, and others [4][6] Thematic Strategy - The report discusses the recent policy initiatives from six departments aimed at promoting the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic components, which is expected to create development opportunities in the solar industry [4][6] - It mentions specific ETFs related to the photovoltaic sector that could benefit from these developments [4][6]

核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 伟星股份 002003.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 25 年业绩符合预期 26 年有望边际提速 ⚫ 根据公司本次业绩快报以及下游服饰行业的经营形势和我们的草根跟踪，我们调整 对公司的盈利预测（主要下调了未来 3 年纽扣和拉链的收入增速、考虑股权激励、 人民币升值预期和折旧等因素上调了期间费用比率）预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收 益分别为 0.54、0.57 和 0.66 元（原预测为 0.58、0.64 和 0.75 元），DCF 估值对 应目标价为 15.78 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 下游服饰复苏预期、贸易摩擦、汇率波动和海外产能爬坡低于预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 3,907 | 4,674 | 4,787 | 5,147 | 5,616 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.7% | 19.7% | 2.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 67 ...

冲突在力度、持续性上升级的阻力较大，具有自限性。第一，作纵向的历史比较， 美国军事实力"相对"下降。第二，地面部队直接介入，在国内有较强的政治阻 力。第三，伊朗当前已经组织起具有系统性的反击。历史经验来看，还有封锁霍尔 木兹海峡的重大尾部风险作为工具选项。第四，美国当前国内政治、经济基本面对 战争成本不耐受。因此，美国政府的决策很可能主动倾向于管控冲突烈度。 ⚫ 宏观叙事影响： 油价持续计入地缘政治风险溢价。历史经验与交易节奏显示，原油在地缘冲突前完 成一部分预期定价，在剧烈、最超预期的军事行动落地时加速上冲；随后若出现冲 突降级/形势企稳信号，油价可能阶段性见顶回落，但中枢抬升，反映国际关系恶化 与地缘风险上升的再定价。本轮原油价格先行定价潜在地缘风险的表现比较显著， 军事行动启动后，随打击的持续发展，仍需为短期内油价的进一步上行（补定价） 和潜在的"超预期"风险留出空间。 滞胀预期上行，压制市场风险偏好。油价上行可以较为直接地转化为通胀风险，一 个粗略的拇指法则是：每 10 美元油价上涨，大约导致美国 CPI 同比口径上行 0.2- 0.3pct。继而，通胀受到外生冲击走高，将抑制需求，压制货币政策宽松托 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the investment value of the leading machine tool company, Haitan Precision, under the backdrop of self-controllable manufacturing [5] - The company is expected to further increase its market share as a leading enterprise in the industry, despite a downward adjustment in forecasts due to market demand pressure in the first half of 2025 [6] - The target price for the company is set at 33.0 yuan, based on a 30 times average price-to-earnings ratio of comparable companies for 2026 [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,323 million yuan - 2024: 3,352 million yuan (growth of 0.9%) - 2025: 3,418 million yuan (growth of 2.0%) - 2026: 3,697 million yuan (growth of 8.2%) - 2027: 4,140 million yuan (growth of 12.0%) [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as: - 2023: 609 million yuan - 2024: 523 million yuan (decline of 14.2%) - 2025: 501 million yuan (decline of 4.1%) - 2026: 572 million yuan (growth of 14.0%) - 2027: 671 million yuan (growth of 17.4%) [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023: 1.17 yuan - 2024: 1.00 yuan - 2025: 0.96 yuan - 2026: 1.10 yuan - 2027: 1.29 yuan [8] Market Context - The report notes that China's dependence on imported high-end machine tools remains significant, with imports expected to reach 5.9 billion USD in 2025, accounting for 22% of the total consumption in the metal processing machine tool industry [10] - The company is enhancing its capabilities in high-end products and has developed a range of advanced machinery, indicating a potential for market share expansion [10]

资产配置 | 定期报告 美伊事件压制风偏，全球风险评价分化 20260302 多资产配置周报 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 03 日 | 郑月灵 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120003 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyueling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | | zhoushiying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 董翱翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860125030016 | | | dongaoxiang@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | | 地缘扰动和关税博弈强化中盘蓝筹涨价逻 | 2026-02-26 | | --- | --- | | 辑：20260222A 股风格及行业配置周报 | | | 海外地缘和降息节奏彰显国内风险评价下 | 2026-02-25 | | 行：20260222 多资产配置周报 | | | 前期热点波动上行，中盘蓝筹风险可控： | 2026-0 ...

海天精工 601882.SH 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们看好工业母机自主可控的投资机会，海天精工作为行业龙头企业，有望进一步 提升市场份额。考虑到 2025H1 市场需求承压产生拖累，我们下调相关预测，但从 2025 全年表现，机床行业景气度也在持续回升，所以我们仍然看好公司后续的增 长。我们预计 25-27 年公司 EPS 分别为 0.96/1.10/1.29 元（2025-2026 原值为 1.30/1.52 元）。参考可比公司 2026 年 30 倍平均市盈率，给予海天精工目标价 33.0 元，维持增持评级。 | 三季度业绩承压，加码研发度过行业低谷 | 2024-12-06 | | --- | --- | | 期：——海天精工 2024 年三季报点评 | | | 营收、业绩逆势创新高，彰显行业领军者 | 2024-03-27 | | 实力：——海天精工 2023 年报点评 | | 自主可控背景下，机床龙头投资价值提升 ——海天精工跟踪 | | 增持（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2026年03月02日） | 21.87 元 | | 目标价格 | ...

投资建议与投资标的 地缘冲突导致成本上行，AWE 将至关注黑 电技术迭代 核心观点 投资建议：地缘冲突加剧，家电行业原材料/欧线运费成本上行，经营效率更高、全球供 应链韧性更好的白电集团抗风险能力更强；AWE2026 将至，关注黑电产业技术迭代。 主线一：龙头公司经营效率更高，成本上行周期经营更稳健，结合较高股息率可作为稳 健配置首选，相关标的：海尔智家(600690，未评级)、海信视像(600060，增持)。 主线二：出海仍为长期主线，2026 年有望迎来估值切换，相关标的：石头科技 (688169，买入) 、莱克电气(603355，买入)。 主线三：AWE2026将至，黑电产业技术迭代值得关注，相关标的：TCL电子(01070，未 评级)。 风险提示 以旧换新补贴政策持续性存在不确定性、关税扰动反复、地缘冲突加剧导致成本进一步 上行。 家电行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 国家/地区 中国 行业 家电行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 02 日 看好（维持） | 曲世强 | 执业证书编号：S0860525100004 | | --- | --- | | | qushiqiang@orientsec.c ...