宏观经济 | 专题报告 美国以色列袭击伊朗：地缘格局生变，全 球风险评价上行 研究结论 风险提示 伊朗超预期反制（使用核武器或封锁霍尔木兹海峡）的风险；海峡航行阻滞时间超预期 的风险。 宏观经济 | 专题报告 —— 美国以色列袭击伊朗：地缘格局生变，全球风险评价上行 | | | | 一、本轮军事行动目标，指向重塑伊朗政权和美伊谈判局势 4 | | --- | | 二、冲突仍会延续，伴随阶段性烈度升级 6 | | 三、冲突或仍以空袭为主要形式，实质升级面临多重硬约束 7 | | 四、形势震荡反复，全球风险评价或有持续上行可能性 8 | | 风险提示 10 | 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 07 日 | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | --- | --- | | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | ...

Investment Rating - The report gives Zhejiang Dingli a "Buy" rating for the first time, with a target price of 70.95 CNY based on a 15x PE ratio for 2026 [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The demand for aerial work platforms in Europe and North America is expected to recover, driving the company's performance growth. The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 4.05, 4.73, and 5.37 CNY respectively [3][12]. - The company has established itself as a leading manufacturer of aerial work platforms, with a strong global presence and a significant portion of revenue coming from overseas markets [8][54]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2023A: 6,312 - 2024A: 7,799 - 2025E: 8,856 - 2026E: 9,931 - 2027E: 11,103 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: 15.9% - 2024A: 23.6% - 2025E: 13.6% - 2026E: 12.1% - 2027E: 11.8% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million CNY): - 2023A: 1,867 - 2024A: 1,629 - 2025E: 2,049 - 2026E: 2,393 - 2027E: 2,718 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: 48.5% - 2024A: -12.8% - 2025E: 25.8% - 2026E: 16.7% - 2027E: 13.6% [4] Industry Outlook - The global aerial work platform industry is expected to grow at a rate higher than cyclical trends, driven by increasing safety regulations and high labor costs [45][52]. - The North American and European markets are showing signs of recovery, with factors such as potential interest rate cuts and infrastructure investments expected to boost demand [61][64]. - Emerging applications in AI data centers and related infrastructure investments are anticipated to further drive demand for aerial work platforms [71][72].

Investment Rating - The report gives Zhejiang Dingli a "Buy" rating for the first time, with a target price of 70.95 CNY based on a 15x PE ratio for 2026 [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The demand for aerial work platforms in Europe and North America is expected to recover, driving growth in the company's performance. The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 4.05 CNY, 4.73 CNY, and 5.37 CNY respectively [3][12]. - The company has established itself as a leading manufacturer of aerial work platforms, with a strong global presence and a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas markets [8][54]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Zhejiang Dingli are as follows: - 2023: 6,312 million CNY - 2024: 7,799 million CNY (YoY growth: 15.9%) - 2025: 8,856 million CNY (YoY growth: 13.6%) - 2026: 9,931 million CNY (YoY growth: 12.1%) - 2027: 11,103 million CNY (YoY growth: 11.8%) [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: - 2023: 1,867 million CNY - 2024: 1,629 million CNY (YoY decline: 12.8%) - 2025: 2,049 million CNY (YoY growth: 25.8%) - 2026: 2,393 million CNY (YoY growth: 16.7%) - 2027: 2,718 million CNY (YoY growth: 13.6%) [4] - The company maintains a strong gross margin of 36.8% in 2023, projected to improve to 37.1% by 2027 [4]. Industry Outlook - The global aerial work platform industry is expected to grow at a rate higher than cyclical trends, driven by increasing safety regulations and labor costs [45][52]. - The North American and European markets are anticipated to see a recovery in demand for aerial work platforms, supported by potential interest rate cuts and infrastructure investments [61][64]. - Emerging applications such as AI data centers and related power investments are expected to drive renewed demand for aerial work platforms [71][72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the insurance sector, indicating a favorable investment environment despite some challenges ahead [7]. Core Insights - The solvency of life insurance companies is expected to weaken in 2025, leading to an accelerated need for capital replenishment, while property insurance companies will see a slight increase in solvency [7]. - The total investment balance in the insurance industry is projected to grow steadily, with life insurance contributing significantly to this increase [16]. - The asset allocation structure of life insurance companies shows a high bond allocation, with a continuous increase in stock positions [25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with stable channels and teams, as well as those with better asset flexibility and duration matching [31]. Summary by Sections 1. Solvency of Life and Property Insurance Companies - The solvency ratio for life insurance companies decreased from 196.6% in Q1 2025 to 169.3% in Q4 2025, while property insurance companies saw a slight increase from 239.3% to 243.5% during the same period [10][12]. 2. Investment Balance in the Insurance Industry - The total investment balance in the insurance sector rose from 32.2 trillion yuan at the end of Q4 2024 to 37.1 trillion yuan at the end of Q4 2025, with life insurance companies holding over 90% of this total [16][19]. 3. Asset Allocation Structure of Life Insurance Companies - As of Q4 2025, the allocation of bonds, stocks, and funds for life insurance companies was 51.1%, 10.1%, and 5.1% respectively, with significant year-on-year increases in stock investments [25][27]. 4. Asset Allocation Structure of Property Insurance Companies - By Q4 2025, property insurance companies had a bond allocation of 40.6% and a stock allocation of 9.4%, reflecting a strategic shift towards standardized assets [28][30]. 5. Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong product structures and stable channels, as well as those with higher equity flexibility and better duration matching [31]. Potential targets include China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and China People’s Insurance [31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The recent government work report has elevated the status of the aviation industry to that of a "new pillar industry," indicating a significant increase in national emphasis on aviation and its importance to the economy [8] - The focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan will shift towards "scale production" and "series development" of large aircraft, with expectations for accelerated industry growth [8] - Key components such as the C919 aircraft's production capacity and supply chain development are expected to advance, particularly in the areas of domestic engines and onboard systems [8] Summary by Sections Government Work Report - The report introduced new references to aviation, upgrading its classification from "emerging industry" to "new pillar industry," reflecting a stronger policy drive for the sector [8] Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that the domestic large aircraft and core system construction are likely to accelerate, with a positive outlook on aviation engines and onboard equipment systems [3] - Recommended stocks include: - AVIC Engine (600893, Not Rated) - AVIC Onboard (600372, Buy) - Jianghang Equipment (688586, Not Rated) - AVIC Control (000738, Not Rated) - AVIC Technology (600391, Not Rated) - Huaqin Technology (688281, Buy) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy financial tools and resilient asset expansion [6][35]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to stabilize net interest margins and recover due to the ongoing repricing cycle of deposits, with structural risks anticipated to receive policy support [3][35]. - The report highlights two main investment lines: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals, including Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [3][36]. 2. Large state-owned banks with stable fundamentals and defensive value, including Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3][36]. Historical Review of Loan and Deposit Growth Gap - The report constructs a loan and deposit growth gap indicator, defined as "bank deposit growth - bank loan growth," with an upward trend indicating convergence and a downward trend indicating expansion [9][12]. - Historical analysis shows: 1. From 2016 to 2018, the gap deepened due to a faster decline in deposit growth, primarily influenced by deleveraging and regulatory impacts [14][18]. 2. Between 2019 and 2020, the gap narrowed, driven by a faster decline in loan growth due to stricter real estate regulations and the pandemic [18][19]. 3. From the second half of 2021 to 2022, the gap steeply narrowed due to dual drivers from both deposits and loans, with a significant shift in household liquidity dynamics [19][21]. 4. In 2023 to Q1 2024, the gap expanded again, primarily due to a sharper decline in deposit growth influenced by early mortgage repayments and policy-driven debt restructuring [21][24]. Understanding Recent Convergence of Loan and Deposit Growth Gap - The continuous narrowing of the loan and deposit growth gap in recent years is attributed to high-interest deposit adjustments and accelerated debt restructuring, with a projected scale of 3.2 trillion yuan in 2024 [24][26]. - The report anticipates that the gap will likely stabilize marginally but is less likely to trend towards expansion, contingent on the credit supply positioning of the household sector [31][31]. Relationship Between Loan and Deposit Growth Gap and Bank Bond Allocation - The convergence of the loan and deposit growth gap suggests relative redundancy of deposits within the banking system, which should enhance banks' bond allocation capabilities [33][34]. - Statistical analysis indicates that changes in the loan and deposit growth gap serve as a leading indicator for stable bond investment growth, particularly for large state-owned banks [33][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy financial tools and resilient asset expansion [6][35]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to stabilize net interest margins and recover due to the ongoing repricing cycle of deposits, with structural risks anticipated to receive policy support [3][35]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with solid fundamentals, including Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Ningbo Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Hangzhou Bank [3][36]. 2. State-owned large banks with stable fundamentals and defensive value, including Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China [3][36]. Historical Analysis of Loan and Deposit Growth Gap - The report constructs a loan and deposit growth gap indicator, defined as "bank deposit growth - bank loan growth," with an upward trend indicating convergence and a downward trend indicating expansion [9][12]. - Historical analysis shows: 1. From 2016 to 2018, the gap deepened due to a faster decline in deposit growth, primarily influenced by deleveraging and regulatory impacts [14][18]. 2. Between 2019 and 2020, the gap narrowed, driven by a faster decline in loan growth due to stricter real estate regulations and the pandemic [18][19]. 3. From the second half of 2021 to 2022, the gap steeply narrowed due to dual drivers from both deposits and loans, with a significant shift in household liquidity dynamics [19][21]. 4. In 2023 to Q1 2024, the gap expanded again, primarily due to a sharper decline in deposit growth influenced by early mortgage repayments and policy-driven debt restructuring [21][24]. Understanding Recent Convergence of Loan and Deposit Growth Gap - The continuous narrowing of the loan and deposit growth gap in recent years is attributed to high-interest deposit adjustments and accelerated debt restructuring, with a projected scale of 3.2 trillion yuan in 2024 [24][26]. - The report anticipates that the gap will likely stabilize marginally but is less likely to trend towards expansion, contingent on the credit supply dynamics of the household sector [31][33]. Relationship Between Loan and Deposit Growth Gap and Bank Bond Allocation - The convergence of the loan and deposit growth gap suggests relative redundancy of deposits within the banking system, which should enhance banks' bond allocation capabilities [33][34]. - Statistical analysis indicates that changes in the loan and deposit growth gap serve as a leading indicator for stable bond investment growth, particularly for state-owned banks [33][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Short-term fluctuations do not change the long-term growth trajectory of the innovative drug sector. Despite recent market volatility, the underlying logic for medium to long-term growth remains intact, driven by globalization, technological breakthroughs, and industry upgrades [8][12] - The focus has shifted from "can we go global" to "what progress has been made after going global," emphasizing the importance of overseas clinical deployment and milestone achievements for innovative drugs [13][14] - Breakthroughs in frontier technologies, particularly in small nucleic acids and CAR-T therapies, position Chinese companies to become core global assets [18][20] - The commercialization of innovative drugs is expected to lead to a profitability inflection point, with key companies entering a positive cycle of product volume growth and reinvestment in R&D [22] Summary by Sections 1. Short-term Fluctuations, Long-term Growth - The innovative drug sector has experienced significant volatility due to concentrated expectations and emotions, but the long-term growth trend remains unchanged [8][12] - The valuation of leading companies has reached reasonable levels, suggesting potential investment opportunities as market sentiment stabilizes [12] 1.1 Focus on Globalization Progress - The emphasis has shifted to the progress of products in overseas clinical trials, with a focus on key data readouts and milestone achievements [13][14] - Domestic bispecific antibodies are accelerating their global clinical trials, becoming core trading assets in the context of expiring patents for PD-(L)1 products [13] 1.2 Breakthroughs in Frontier Technologies - Chinese companies are leading in small nucleic acids and CAR-T therapies, with significant advancements in delivery technologies expanding treatment options beyond rare diseases [18] - In vivo CAR-T therapies have shown preliminary clinical effectiveness, with a growing number of transactions indicating a shift towards mainstream adoption [20] 1.3 Commercialization Driving Profitability - Leading innovative drug companies are entering a cycle of product volume growth that supports R&D reinvestment, with expectations for exceeding market performance in 2023 [22] - The upcoming earnings period in March-April 2026 is seen as a critical validation point for the sector [22] 2. Global New Drugs: Highlights in Autoimmunity and Oncology - The report highlights the approval of the world's first PD-L1/TGF-β bispecific antibody, showcasing the R&D capabilities of domestic companies [26][27] - The successful launch of innovative drugs in critical therapeutic areas reflects the growing strength of domestic pharmaceutical companies in addressing unmet medical needs [26][27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - The recent government work report has elevated the status of the aviation industry to that of a "new emerging pillar industry," indicating a significant shift in national focus and importance towards aviation [8] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for scaling up production and developing a series of aircraft models, which is expected to accelerate the growth of the large aircraft industry [8] - Key areas of focus include enhancing the production capacity of the C919 aircraft and advancing the development of core systems such as the Changjiang 1000A engine and onboard equipment [8] Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests that the domestic large aircraft and core system construction are likely to accelerate, with a positive outlook on aviation engines and onboard equipment core subsystems [3] - Recommended investment targets include: - AVIC Engine (航发动力, 600893, Not Rated) - AVIC Onboard Equipment (中航机载, 600372, Buy) - Jianghang Equipment (江航装备, 688586, Not Rated) - AVIC Control (航发控制, 000738, Not Rated) - AVIC Technology (航发科技, 600391, Not Rated) - Huaqin Technology (华秦科技, 688281, Buy) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the quantum computing industry [5]. Core Insights - Quantum computing has made significant breakthroughs, particularly in error correction, bringing it closer to fault-tolerant quantum computing and accelerating commercialization [3]. - Government policies supporting quantum computing as a new productive force are expected to create a larger market space and unlock performance potential [3]. - Investors are advised to focus on upstream core equipment and components, midstream integrated platforms, and downstream application security sectors [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Classic Computing Performance Bottlenecks - The performance of classical computing is showing signs of stagnation, with quantum computing emerging as a new paradigm for accelerated computation [9][14]. - Quantum computing leverages quantum superposition and entanglement to process information in parallel, significantly reducing computational complexity for specific problems [8][14]. 2. Mainstream Quantum Computing Technology Paths - Multiple quantum computing technologies are being developed, including superconducting, ion trap, neutral atom, and photonic quantum computing, each with its own advantages and challenges [8][41]. - The progress in quantum computing has accelerated, with significant advancements in quantum superiority and error correction capabilities [8][41]. 3. National Policies Focused on Quantum Technology - Major countries are formulating quantum technology strategies and investing heavily, with the U.S. and China leading in government support and funding [8][9]. - Policies are accelerating industry development through planning, financial investment, and export controls [9]. 4. Accelerating Development of the Quantum Computing Industry - The quantum computing industry is in its early commercialization stage, primarily focusing on research-grade systems and key components, with revenue largely driven by government and research institution demand [8][9]. - Key players in the industry include IBM, Google, and domestic companies like GuoShun Quantum and Benyuan Quantum, which are making significant progress in core technology development [8][9]. 5. Overview of Domestic Quantum Computing Companies - Notable companies include GuoShun Quantum, a national leader in quantum technology, and Turing Quantum, a leader in photonic quantum computing [8][9].