投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 美国赤字与地区冲突推升价格上涨，关注 黄金与小金属板块投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 11 周） 核心观点 | 铁矿石：供给格局或迎巨变，钢铁盈利有 | 2025-03-12 | | --- | --- | | 望回流：——"中国定价"系列报告之一 | | | 德国财政刺激大超预期，关注铜铝和小金 | 2025-03-09 | | 属板块投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观 | | | 点（2025 年第 10 周） | | | 2 月制造业 PMI 超预期，关注钢铁板块投 | 2025-03-03 | | 资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 | | | 年第 9 周） | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou, with a target price of HKD 75.96 per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - Kuaishou's technology in multi-modal video generation is globally leading, particularly with its Keling model, which is positioned as a top competitor in the industry [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous technological iteration in video generation models and Kuaishou's competitive advantages in this space [4][8]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in its e-commerce GMV, projected to increase by 13.5% in 2025, outpacing the market [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted net profit forecasts for Kuaishou are CNY 176 billion, CNY 201 billion, and CNY 247 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. - The report highlights a stable financial outlook with a low to mid-range valuation, providing a good safety margin for investors [8]. Video Generation Model Development - The report identifies the DiT architecture as the mainstream framework for video generation, with Kuaishou's Keling model being a leading player in this domain [22][23]. - Kuaishou's Keling model is noted for its superior performance in key evaluation metrics such as consistency and precise control, making it a top competitor globally [8][30]. User Engagement and Commercialization - Kuaishou's user engagement metrics remain strong, with MAU and DAU showing consistent growth, and average daily usage time maintained at 120-130 minutes [8][9]. - The report anticipates a transition in Kuaishou's business model from PUGC tools to multi-scenario empowerment, indicating a shift towards broader user engagement and monetization strategies [19][22].

美国赤字与地区冲突推升价格上涨，关注 黄金与小金属板块投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 11 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 铁矿石：供给格局或迎巨变，钢铁盈利有 | 2025-03-12 | | --- | --- | | 望回流：——"中国定价"系列报告之一 | | | 德国财政刺激大超预期，关注铜铝和小金 | 2025-03-09 | | 属板块投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观 | | | 点（2025 年第 10 周） | | | 2 月制造业 PMI 超预期，关注钢铁板块投 | 2025-03-03 | | 资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 | | | 年第 9 周） | | | 1. 核心观点：美国 ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 公募密集申报自由现金流主题基金， 年内首家 QDII 业务获批 | | | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究结论 | | 1111111111 | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | | | 邱蕊 | 021-63325888*5091 | | ⚫ | 基金市场热点跟踪：1. 公募密集申报自由现金流主题基金：3 月 10 日~11 日，广 | | qiurui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 发、富国、汇添富、招商、鹏华、万家等基金公司集体上报中证 800 自由现金流 | | 执业证书编号：S0860519020001 | | | ETF，中欧基金、上银基金上报国证自由现金流指数基金。据统计，目前，自由现 | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW115 | | | 金流主题基金的上报数量已达到 23 只。2. 年内首家 QDII 业务获批：财通资管于 | 陶文启 | taowenqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524 ...

ESG 研究 | 定期报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 薛俊 | 021-63325888*6005 | | --- | --- | | | xuejun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515100002 | | 赵越峰 | 021-63325888*7507 | | | zhaoyuefeng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860513060001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BPU173 | | 段怡芊 | duanyiqian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524010001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BVI649 | | ESG 建设提速，机遇与挑战并存：—— | 2024-12-25 | | --- | --- | | 2025 年度 ESG 展望 | | | 谷歌推出全木结构办公室，国泰航空等推 | 2024-12-14 | | 动香港应用可持续航空燃料：——ESG 企 | | | 业动态双周报第二十二期 | | | 赋能绿色金融深化发展，基于 ESG 评分等 ...

金融工程 | 动态跟踪 公募密集申报自由现金流主题基金， 年内首家 QDII 业务获批 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | | | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究结论 | | 1111111111 | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | | | 邱蕊 | 021-63325888*5091 | | ⚫ | 基金市场热点跟踪：1. 公募密集申报自由现金流主题基金：3 月 10 日~11 日，广 | | qiurui@orientsec.com.cn | | | 发、富国、汇添富、招商、鹏华、万家等基金公司集体上报中证 800 自由现金流 | | 执业证书编号：S0860519020001 | | | ETF，中欧基金、上银基金上报国证自由现金流指数基金。据统计，目前，自由现 | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW115 | | | 金流主题基金的上报数量已达到 23 只。2. 年内首家 QDII 业务获批：财通资管于 | 陶文启 | taowenqi@orientsec.com ...

银行行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 政府债支撑社融增速企稳回升，化债扰动 贷款增长 ——2 月金融数据点评 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 当前进入稳增长政策密集落地期，宽货币先行，宽财政紧随，地方化债显著提速， 对 25 年银行基本面产生深刻影响；财政政策力度加码，支撑社融信贷并提振经济预 期，顺周期品种有望受益；广谱利率下行区间，银行净息差短期承压，但高息存款 进入集中重定价周期叠加监管对高息揽存行为持续整治，对 25 年银行息差形成重要 呵护；25 年是银行资产质量夯实之年，政策托底下，房地产、城投资产风险预期有 望显著改善，风险暴露和处置较为充分的部分个贷品种也有望迎来资产质量拐点。 2、风险预期改善，以及一季度受债券市场调整扰动较小，基本面确定性较强的品 种，建议关注渝农商行(601077，买入)、宁波银行(002142，买入)、上海银行 (601229，未评级)、招商银行(600036，未评级)。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；房地产等重点领域风险蔓延；流动性环境超预期收紧。 国家/地区 中国 行业 银行行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 03 月 15 日 看好（维持） | 屈俊 | qujun@o ...

新能源车销量维持较高增长，深蓝与华为 深化合作 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2024-2026 年归母净利润 59.47、82.68、101.25 亿元，可比公司 25 年平均 PE 估值 21 倍，目标价 17.43 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 长安福特销量低于预期、长安马自达销量低于预期、长安自主品牌销量低于预期、行业 价格战影响盈利。 资料来源：公司数据. 东方证券研究所预测. 每股收益使用最新股本全面摊薄计算. 长安汽车 000625.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年03月14日） | 13.15 元 | | 目标价格 | 17.43 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 18.46/11.43 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 991,409/990,234 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 130,370 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 汽车与零部件 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 03 月 15 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][9] Core Views - The company has a clear strategy focusing on AI and cloud integration, with the split of the Intelligent Information Business Group marking an increase in AI ToC applications. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10046 billion, 11230 billion, and 12545 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion, 1656 billion, and 1863 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 175.10 HKD [2][9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was 868,687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. Projections for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are 1,004,569 million, 1,123,039 million, and 1,254,470 million yuan respectively, with expected growth rates of 6.74%, 11.79%, and 11.70% [7] - The adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 72,509 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.03%. The forecast for FY2025 is 132,264 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 65.87% [7] - The report indicates a gross margin of 36.72% for FY2023, projected to increase to 39.05% by FY2025 [7] AI Application and Market Position - Alibaba's new AI flagship application, "New Quark," launched on March 13, integrates various AI functionalities and is expected to enhance user engagement. The application has achieved a daily active user count of 34.3 million, leading the AI application market [5][9] - The report highlights Alibaba's strong position in the AI and cloud computing sectors, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing power driven by AI applications. The company’s proprietary AI models are expected to outperform competitors [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 168.34 CNY, based on an expected EPS of 4.43, 5.43, and 6.67 CNY for 2025-2027 [2][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see steady growth in its smart cockpit and intelligent driving businesses, driven by new customers and projects [1][9]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 shows a growth trajectory with expected revenues of 33.73 billion CNY, 40.99 billion CNY, and 49.03 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.1%, 21.5%, and 19.6% [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 27.62 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, with a net profit of 2.01 billion CNY, up 29.6% [9]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 19.9%, with a net margin of 7.3% [4][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 2.79 CNY in 2023 to 6.67 CNY by 2027 [4][12]. Business Segment Insights - The smart cockpit business is anticipated to grow by 15.4% in 2024, with new project orders exceeding an annualized sales amount of 16 billion CNY [9]. - The intelligent driving business is projected to see a significant increase in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 63.1% in 2024, reaching 7.31 billion CNY [9].