Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 74.58 HKD per share, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant progress in its commercial operations, particularly with its Kuaishou Keling product, which achieved monthly revenues exceeding 1 billion CNY in April and May [3][8]. - The Keling 2.1 version was launched at the end of May, offering a higher cost-performance ratio, which is expected to drive user growth and increase paid subscriptions [8]. - The company is experiencing a positive cycle of technology iteration, product refinement, user payment, and revenue growth, similar to the trajectory of overseas competitors [8]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit for the company is projected to be 195 billion CNY in 2025, with expected growth to 246 billion CNY by 2027 [4][9]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 113.47 billion CNY in 2023 to 164.14 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [9][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 50.6% in 2023 to 56.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9][11]. Performance Metrics - The company's stock price performance has shown a 20% increase over the past month and an 18.97% increase over the past week [6]. - The company has repurchased shares worth 19 billion HKD since the beginning of 2025, providing a safety net for shareholder returns [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Insights - The real estate market showed resilience in May, with new home sales improving month-on-month, while year-on-year declines narrowed [6][29] - The report anticipates a continued downward pressure on sales in the second half of the year due to potential uncertainties from U.S.-China trade negotiations [6][29] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality land reserves and product strength for real estate companies to achieve alpha attributes [6][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 23rd week, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -0.1%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3874.0, with a weekly increase of 0.9%, while the real estate index closed at 2174.1, with a weekly increase of 0.8% [6][10][11] Policy Developments - Nationally, the central government supports urban renewal actions, with 20 cities including Beijing and Guangzhou selected. Locally, Jiangsu has announced measures to boost consumption, while Hunan and Zhejiang have introduced policies to support housing and property acquisition [6][13][21] Sales Data - In the 23rd week, new home sales in 44 major cities decreased to 14,000 units, down 33.1% from the previous week. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities also fell to 15,000 units, down 23.0% [6][16] - Inventory levels decreased, with 18 major cities holding 825,000 units, down 21,000 units from the previous week, and a sales-to-inventory ratio of 16.8 months, down 4.5 months [6][23] Company Announcements - Key companies have made significant announcements, including major asset restructuring and share repurchase plans. Notable mentions include Chengjian Development and Haitai Development [6][28][29] Future Outlook - The report expects a year-on-year increase in second-hand home transaction volumes, while new home sales are projected to continue declining but at a reduced rate. The core areas with high efficiency and premium properties are expected to drive this trend [6][29]

Group 1: Economic Performance - As of May 31, 2025, the "old-for-new" program has driven sales of 1.1 trillion yuan across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued to consumers[5] - The estimated fiscal funding of 139.2 billion yuan represents 42% of the progress towards the target, closely aligning with the scheduled progress of 5/12[5] - The retail sales growth for April was 5.1%, down from 5.9% in March, but still better than the previous year's performance[9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The "old-for-new" program has reached 12.4% of the population with 175 million subsidies issued, indicating significant coverage and potential for future growth[5] - The demand for building and decoration materials improved in April, with a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, the highest since December 2021[9] - The retail sales of gold and jewelry surged to a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April, reflecting strong consumer interest driven by rising gold prices[9] Group 3: Investment and Financing - The total social financing scale increased by 11.59 billion yuan in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%[12] - Government bond issuance maintained a rapid pace, with new issuance of 972.9 billion yuan in April, significantly higher than the previous year[13] - Corporate loans decreased by 250 billion yuan year-on-year in April, while corporate bonds saw an increase of 633 billion yuan, indicating a shift in financing methods[13] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies continue to impact market risk appetite, contributing to uncertainty in trade relations[5] - The restructuring of the industrial chain due to tariffs poses risks of global growth slowdown and overcapacity[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Insights - The real estate market showed resilience in May, with new home sales improving month-on-month and a narrowing year-on-year decline [6][29] - The report anticipates a continued downward pressure on sales in the second half of the year due to potential uncertainties from U.S.-China trade negotiations [6][29] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality land reserves and product strength for real estate companies to achieve alpha attributes [6][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 23rd week, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -0.1% [6][9] - The CSI 300 index closed at 3874.0 with a weekly increase of 0.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2174.1 with a weekly increase of 0.8% [10][11] Policy Developments - National policies include central government support for urban renewal actions, with 20 cities including Beijing and Guangzhou selected [13][15] - Local policies from Jiangsu and Hunan aim to boost consumption and support the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing [13][21] Sales Data - In the 23rd week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 33.1% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities were 15,000 units, down 23.0% [6][16] - Inventory levels decreased, with 18 major cities holding 825,000 units, down by 21,000 units from the previous week [6][23] Company Announcements - Key companies such as Chengjian Development and Haitai Development announced significant asset restructuring and share transfer plans [28][29] - The report notes that several companies are engaging in share buybacks and dividend distributions [28][29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying Poly Developments (600048) and China Merchants Shekou (001979), while suggesting to pay attention to companies like China Resources Land (01109) and Yuexiu Property (00123) [6][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the Chinese defense and military industry [5] Core Insights - The military trade is expected to become a second growth curve for the industry, with Indonesia considering the procurement of Chinese J-10 fighter jets due to their high performance and cost-effectiveness [27] - The report highlights that the recent geopolitical tensions have increased military spending globally, creating new opportunities for China's military exports [6][27] - The domestic aviation industry is expected to accelerate the localization of aircraft engines due to U.S. export restrictions on key technologies [6] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The defense and military industry index rose by 0.41% during the week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.13% [10][11] - The defense and military industry ranked 24th out of 31 sectors in terms of weekly performance [13] News and Announcements - Indonesia is evaluating the feasibility of purchasing Chinese J-10 fighter jets to modernize its air force while considering budget constraints [27] - The U.S. has restricted the export of commercial engines, which is expected to accelerate the domestic development of aviation engines in China [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on upstream components and key materials as they are crucial for weapon development and production, with potential for significant performance improvements [6] - Specific stocks recommended include Zhihua Technology, Aerospace Electric, and others in the upstream components and key materials sectors [6]

固生堂 02273.HK 公司研究 | 首次报告 | | | ——固生堂首次覆盖报告 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.53、1.81 和 2.24 元。公司是国内领先中医 连锁服务龙头，AI 布局靠前，据可比公司 25 年平均估值，给予公司当年 26 倍市盈 率，对应目标价 43.37 港元（按 1：0.91517 汇率测算），首次给予"买入"评级。 风险提示 中药集采与供应链、合规经营、优质中医师资源不足、行业竞争加剧风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2323.35 | 3022.38 | 3777.96 | 4574.38 | 5717.88 | | 同比增长 (%) | 43.01% | 30.09% | 25.00% | 21.08% | 25.00% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 229.36 | 319.07 | 387.06 | 468.15 | 590.16 ...

固生堂 02273.HK 公司研究 | 首次报告 | | | ——固生堂首次覆盖报告 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益为 1.53、1.81 和 2.24 元。公司是国内领先中医 连锁服务龙头，AI 布局靠前，据可比公司 25 年平均估值，给予公司当年 26 倍市盈 率，对应目标价 43.37 港元（按 1：0.91517 汇率测算），首次给予"买入"评级。 风险提示 中药集采与供应链、合规经营、优质中医师资源不足、行业竞争加剧风险 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2323.35 | 3022.38 | 3777.96 | 4574.38 | 5717.88 | | 同比增长 (%) | 43.01% | 30.09% | 25.00% | 21.08% | 25.00% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 229.36 | 319.07 | 387.06 | 468.15 | 590.16 ...

军工上游进入配置区间，关注军贸和航发 产业链等 —军工行业周报（6/2~6/6） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 军品订单和收入确认不及预期；研发进度及产业化不及预期；竞争格局及份额波动风 险；产品价格下降风险等。 国防军工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 | | 看好（维持） | | --- | --- | | | 中国 | | | 国防军工行业 | | | 2025 年 06 月 09 日 | | 国家/地区 行业 报告发布日期 | | | 罗楠 | 021-63325888*4036 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | 冯函 | 021-63325888*2900 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | 鲍丙文 baobingwen@orientsec.com.cn | OC 证落地，载人 eVTOL 迎来商业化元年 | 2025-03-30 | | --- | --- | | 全力推进"十四五"规划圆满 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 可考虑牛陡交易 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 高频数据跟踪：生产端，各行业开工率分化。需求端，乘用车厂家批发及厂家零售 同比增速高位回落。商品房成交面积同比增速处于较大波动中，6 月 8 日当周 30 大 中城市商品房销售面积下滑，同比增速为-33%左右。出口指数方面，SCFI、 CCFI 综合指数分别变动 8.1%、3.3%。价格端，原油价格上行，铜铝价格分化； 煤炭价格分化，动力煤活跃合约期货结算价与上周持平，焦煤活跃合约期货结算价 上行。中游方面，建材综合价格指数、水泥指数小幅下行，玻璃指数上行。螺纹钢 产量维持小幅下滑，库存较上周小幅下滑，期货价格抬升。下游消费端，蔬菜价格 上行，水果、猪肉价格均下滑。 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 09 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | ...

重视垂直应用，短期零部件仍占优 ——从一级市场看机器人变化趋势 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 我们看到目前机器人一级市场融资项目仍然较好，行业的景气度仍在上升。从 25 年以来 融资情况看，我们发现垂直应用场景依然重要、区域集中、零部件短期占优但整机格局 走向集中。建议重视应用场景细分领域、重点区域公司、短期零部件及中长期整机厂。 建议关注：（1）整机和总成：优必选、越疆、埃斯顿、拓斯达、埃夫特-U、中坚科技、 亿嘉和、永创智能、杰克股份、领益智造、拓普集团、三花智控、信质集团；（2）零部 件：五洲新春、北特科技、震裕科技、金沃股份、绿的谐波、斯菱股份、捷昌驱动、兆 威机电、祥鑫科技、步科股份、唯科科技、南山智尚、汉威科技、凌云光；（3）场景和 应用：中邮科技、德马科技、音飞储存、安徽合力、杭叉集团、诺力股份 机械设备行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 风险提示 场景需求落地不明确导致低于预期、国家政策变化导致行业发展放缓、海外龙头厂商生 产不及预期、行业融资不及预期、模型发展和数据采集慢于预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 机械设备行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 08 日 看好（维持） | 杨震 | 02 ...