Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" and the recommendation is maintained [5]. Core Viewpoints - The value of "call options" in the coal sector is gaining attention, with expectations that coal prices may rise beyond current market reactions due to overseas disturbances [3][8]. - The valuation of quality coal companies is expected to evolve towards a "debt-like" structure combined with "coal price call options," indicating potential for price increases [3][8]. - The coal sector has shown resilience, with the coal mining index rising 7.6% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index [8][60]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088, Buy), China Coal Energy (601898, Buy), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225, Buy), and Jinneng Holding (601001, Buy) [3][63]. Industry Fundamentals - The coal inventory at ports has significantly decreased, with a reported drop to 24.66 million tons as of January 30, 2026, a decrease of 6.2% month-on-month and 6.8% year-on-year [8][36]. - The price of low-sulfur coking coal has increased to 1,630 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 12 RMB/ton and a year-on-year increase of 290 RMB/ton [8][22]. - The coal mining operating rate is at a median level for the same period, indicating stable supply conditions [27][28]. Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port has shown a recovery, while the prices of imported coal from Australia and Indonesia have also increased [8][22][20]. - The overall energy prices, including oil and gas, have risen significantly, with European natural gas prices up 37% and Brent crude oil prices up 16% since the beginning of the year [8][22]. Market Performance - The coal sector has consistently outperformed the broader market indices, with the coal mining index showing a 7.6% increase compared to the 1.7% and 4.5% increases in the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, respectively [8][60]. - The current price-to-book ratio (PB) for the coal industry is 1.52, indicating a historically low relative valuation compared to the broader market [8][60].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural chemical industry is entering a period of layout opportunities, driven by the increasing importance of food security amid geopolitical fluctuations. The focus is on enhancing planting efficiency through technological empowerment [8] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of leading companies in the agricultural chemical sector, particularly those focused on technology services, including plant growth regulators, compound fertilizers, and pesticide formulations [3][8] - The report highlights the recovery opportunities in various sub-sectors of the chemical industry, including MDI, PVC, and refining, with specific companies recommended for investment [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Agricultural Chemical Sector - The report identifies growth opportunities in the agricultural chemical sector, particularly for companies that provide technology-driven services. Key areas include: 1. Plant growth regulators, which are characterized by low usage, high effectiveness, and cost efficiency, are seen as essential for modern agriculture [8] 2. Compound fertilizers are crucial for providing precise nutrient ratios to crops, with room for growth in China's compound fertilizer application rates compared to developed countries [8] 3. The potential for Chinese pesticide formulation companies to expand internationally, breaking the monopoly of traditional multinational corporations [8] Chemical Industry Recovery - The report notes a positive outlook for the recovery of various chemical sub-sectors, including: - MDI leader Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) [3] - PVC industry players such as Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated) and Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated) [3] - Refining sector leaders like Sinopec (600028, Buy) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy) [3] - The report anticipates continued price increases for high-energy products, particularly in the PVC sector, due to supply constraints and structural demand shifts [8]

Group 1: Price Trends and Historical Context - Historical price trends for commodities follow a sequence: precious metals, industrial metals, petrochemicals, and agricultural products, with significant bull markets occurring five times since the 1970s when prices increased by over 50%[9] - The typical price increase sequence is less than one quarter for precious metals, about two quarters for petrochemicals, and approximately one quarter for agricultural products[12] - In the current cycle, precious metals have surged ahead, while industrial metals, petrochemicals, and agricultural products have lagged behind[9] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current market is influenced by two main factors: domestic industrial transformation and global political changes, leading to a divergence in commodity performance[28] - Commodities closely tied to traditional industries, such as real estate, are expected to show weak performance despite policy support, as seen in the contrasting performance of tungsten-iron and iron[30] - Emerging economies are expected to drive future demand growth, with a decoupling from developed economies, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America[30] Group 3: Future Price Pathways - The current price increase is characterized by external factors rather than internal ones, focusing on two main lines: price increases driven by industrialization in emerging economies and geopolitical tensions affecting import prices[43] - The industrialization of emerging economies is anticipated to sustain demand for industrial products, supported by China's technology and capital[43] - Geopolitical risks, including issues in Japan, the Middle East, and Latin America, are expected to impact commodity prices, particularly for imports like agricultural products and crude oil[44] Group 4: Investment Outlook and Risks - The report favors investment in the chemical and agricultural sectors due to their potential for price increases, while being conservative on commodities closely linked to the real estate sector[44] - Risks include market performance falling short of expectations, insufficient pricing of geopolitical risks, and potential underperformance in industry developments[45][46][47]

公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 新建新型储能容量电价，多元电价体系逐 步完善 公用事业行业周报（2026.01.26-2026.01.30） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国家/地区 中国 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 01 日 孙辉贤 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 | 火电电量降幅收窄，基金持仓底部提升： | 2026-01-25 | | --- | --- | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.01.19- | | | 2026.01.23） | | | 气温拖累单月电量，26 年有望平稳增长： | 2026-01-18 | | 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.01.12- | | | 2026.01.16） | | | 长协电价风险落地，结算电价有望好于预 | 2026-01-11 | | 期 ： 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.01.05- | | | 2026.01.09） | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a defensive investment strategy as the upcoming holiday approaches, suggesting a focus on structural trades that outperform the market [2] - The food and beverage sector is highlighted for its potential price increases, with a focus on upstream suppliers that can pass on costs effectively [3][6] - The oil service industry is expected to see improved conditions due to rising oil prices, with a recommendation to focus on high-competitiveness companies [4][6] Market Strategy - The market index showed an initial rise followed by consolidation, aligning with the expectation of a "sideways oscillation with slight strengthening" [6] - The report notes that the domestic risk assessment has improved, which is a long-term confidence-building factor, but lacks the strong momentum seen in a liquidity-driven bull market [6] - The H-share market is suggested for valuation recovery, with mid-cap blue chips performing well, particularly in the gold and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Sector Strategy - The food and beverage sector is experiencing upward price expectations, with challenges in consumer demand due to debt cycles [3][6] - Companies with pricing power or those in the upstream supply chain are expected to show better profit elasticity [6] - Specific stock recommendations include COFCO Sugar (600737), Meihua Biological (600873), and Aipu Co., Ltd. (603020) [6] Oil Service Sector - The report indicates that geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions in the U.S. are affecting oil supply, leading to a rise in Brent crude prices [6] - It is anticipated that the oil service industry's capital expenditure will increase marginally, benefiting competitive firms [6] - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jereh (002353) and Dwell (688377) [6]

Group 1: Historical Price Trends - Historical price trends of commodities follow a sequence: precious metals, industrial metals, petrochemicals, and agricultural products[9] - Since 1970, there have been five significant commodity bull markets, defined by a price increase of over 50%[10] - The typical price increase sequence occurs in less than one quarter for precious metals, about two quarters for petrochemicals, and approximately one quarter for agricultural products[12] Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Current market dynamics are influenced by domestic industrial transformation and global political changes[28] - Commodities closely tied to traditional industries, such as real estate, are expected to perform poorly due to reduced demand elasticity[30] - Emerging economies are expected to drive future demand growth, with a decoupling from developed economies observed[30] Group 3: Price Increase Pathways - The current price increase is characterized by external rather than internal factors, focusing on two main lines: industrialization in emerging economies and geopolitical tensions affecting import prices[43] - The first main line involves price increases driven by industrialization in emerging economies, which is expected to continue due to China's support[44] - The second main line is influenced by geopolitical risks, which can directly threaten commodity prices and create cost transmission effects[44] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report is optimistic about the price outlook for the chemical and agricultural sectors while being conservative about commodities closely related to the real estate chain[44] - Risks include market performance falling short of expectations, insufficient pricing of geopolitical risks, and potential underperformance in industry development[45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the large aircraft sector and commercial aerospace, driven by the strategic goals set by the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) during its 2026 work conference [9][12]. - The competition for low Earth orbit satellite resources is intensifying, with countries like Germany and Japan advancing their satellite communication systems, which is expected to boost China's satellite networking progress [15][16]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is set to enhance military equipment construction, highlighting the potential for growth in both domestic and international military markets, particularly in unmanned systems and commercial aerospace [16]. Summary by Sections 1.1 AVIC's 2026 Work Conference - The conference outlined three strategic tasks: accelerating the independent development of aviation engines, achieving high-level technological self-reliance, and building a strong aviation nation [12]. - The focus is on developing five pillar industries: commercial power, general aviation power, civil gas turbines, system onboard, and advanced materials manufacturing services [12][14]. 1.2 Competition in Space Resources - Germany is deploying a domestic "Starlink" system to ensure national security and communication sovereignty, with potential contracts worth billions of euros [15]. - The report notes that China's satellite internet development is entering a rapid networking phase, with over 100 satellites already in orbit [15][16]. 1.3 Continued Optimism for Various Sectors - The report highlights the importance of the military sector's internal and external demand, focusing on new combat capabilities and the expansion of military trade markets [16]. - Key investment targets include companies involved in large aircraft, commercial aerospace, and military electronics, with specific recommendations for stocks such as AVIC Power (600893), AVIC Aircraft (600372), and Aerospace Electronics (600879) [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the power equipment and new energy industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period saw slower-than-expected carbon reduction, prompting high-energy-consuming industries to accelerate carbon reduction commercialization during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, leading to a growth inflection point for green fuels [3][8] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted 50% increase in energy storage installations by 2025, driven by the rapid growth of new energy [3][19] - The offshore wind power, perovskite, and space photovoltaic sectors are anticipated to exhibit high growth potential during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [3][8] Summary by Sections 1. Wind and Solar Power Entering Maturity with High Growth in Sub-markets - The demand for new energy installations in China is expected to remain robust, with a target of 360 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity by 2035 [12] - The average annual installation space for wind and solar power is projected to exceed 400 GW from 2026 to 2035 [12][13] 2. Energy Storage and Nuclear Power with Stable Supply Attributes - By the end of 2025, China's energy storage installations are expected to reach 66.43 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 52% [19] - The construction speed of nuclear power is expected to accelerate, with a target of 70 million kilowatts of operational capacity by 2025 [21] 3. Carbon Reduction Goals and the Emergence of Green Fuels - The actual carbon reduction progress during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to fall short of the target, necessitating increased efforts in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [26] - Policies are encouraging the integration of green electricity with hydrogen, ammonia, and zero-carbon parks [29] 4. New Photovoltaic Technologies and Nuclear Fusion - Perovskite technology is expected to achieve mass production during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, with efficiency improvements anticipated [32] - The BEST project aims for completion by 2027, with significant investment expected in nuclear fusion technology [34]

汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 行业调整下建议关注出海及布局 AI 应用领 域的强α汽零公司 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 从投资策略上看，预计部分强α汽零公司有望抵御行业风险，实现营收及盈利增长；高 级别自动驾驶产业链、数据中心液冷产业链及能确定进入特斯拉、Figure、智元、宇树等 机器人配套产业链的汽零将持续迎来催化，具备竞争力的自主品牌及在智驾技术方面领 先的企业将继续扩大市场份额。建议持续关注液冷产业链、人形机器人链、出海链、智 驾产业链公司。 机器人相关标的：新泉股份、拓普集团、银轮股份、岱美股份、三花智控、浙江荣泰、 旭升集团、嵘泰股份、斯菱智驱、爱柯迪、精锻科技、博俊科技、沪光股份；液冷相关 标的：英维克、银轮股份、拓普集团、飞龙股份、川环科技等；智驾相关标的：经纬恒 润、伯特利、德赛西威等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 01 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangx ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 23.37 CNY based on a PE valuation of 57 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a dual-driven strategy of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and chemical drugs, with a gradual clearance of the impact from centralized procurement on TCM business. The innovative drug pipeline is entering a harvest phase, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 290 million, 350 million, and 410 million CNY respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.34, 0.41, and 0.48 CNY [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Dual-Driven Strategy of TCM and Chemical Drugs - The company has a rich product layout and maintains stable performance, with a focus on TCM and high-end generic drugs. The revenue from TCM has historically contributed over 50% of total revenue, while the share of chemical drugs has increased from 24% in 2016 to 36% in 2024 [13][16]. - The company launched an employee stock ownership plan in 2024 to incentivize core personnel, focusing on performance assessment and innovative drug development [23][24]. 2. Innovative Product Data and Growth Potential - The company has several innovative products entering commercialization or late-stage clinical trials. Notably, RAY1225, a dual-target drug for obesity and diabetes, has shown superior efficacy in clinical trials compared to existing treatments [27][29]. - ZSP1601, a first-in-class drug for NASH, is currently in IIb phase clinical trials and has demonstrated promising results in reducing liver inflammation markers [45][49]. 3. Core TCM Products and Market Recovery - The company's core TCM product, Compound Thrombus Tong Capsule, has maintained a leading market share in the ophthalmic TCM sector. As the impact of centralized procurement diminishes, sales are expected to stabilize and recover [9][18]. - The Brain Thrombus Capsule, another key product, has shown stable clinical demand and is projected to continue its steady growth [9][18].