Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the bond market dynamics of enterprise perpetual bonds, financial perpetual and subordinated bonds, and ABS in March 2025, aiming to provide investors with reference [9]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The overall performance of the bond market in the second quarter is expected to be positive, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield likely to move from the right side to the middle of the 1.6% - 1.9% range [5]. - It is recommended to continue trading in bands and appropriately invest in short-term bonds of urban and rural commercial banks [5]. Group 4: Enterprise Perpetual Bonds 4.1 Primary Market - In March, 107 enterprise perpetual bonds were issued, raising a total of 111.4 billion yuan, a 56% increase from the previous month. However, the repayment scale increased to 136 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 24.6 billion yuan, the first net outflow this year [5][10]. - The issuance scale of AAA-rated high-quality issuers decreased slightly, and the issuance costs of AAA, AA+, and AA-rated bonds increased by 24bp, 41bp, and 8bp respectively [10]. - The top three industries in terms of issuance volume were urban investment, building decoration, and public utilities, while the comprehensive industry dropped to the fourth place [5][10][13]. - Among the newly issued bonds in March, 63 were subordinated bonds, accounting for 59% of the total number and 67% of the total scale [15]. 4.2 Secondary Market - In March, the short-term yields of industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds fluctuated downward, and the short-term spreads narrowed significantly, while the long-term yields showed no obvious downward trend [21]. - The spreads of urban investment and industrial perpetual bonds fluctuated slightly in March, with the spreads of medium and low-grade, medium and long-term urban investment bonds tending to widen slightly [23]. - The trading volume and turnover rate of enterprise perpetual bonds increased significantly in March. The top three industries in terms of trading volume were urban investment, public utilities, and building decoration [5][30]. - No new cases of non-redemption of enterprise perpetual bonds were reported in March [34]. Group 5: Financial Perpetual and Subordinated Bonds 5.1 Primary Market - The issuance volume of financial perpetual bonds continued to increase in March, reaching the highest level in the first quarter. A total of 7 financial perpetual bonds were issued, raising 63.5 billion yuan, with a net financing outflow of 30.7 billion yuan [35]. - The issuance of financial subordinated bonds increased significantly, with banks contributing the main share. In March, 59.2 billion yuan of financial subordinated bonds were issued, with a net financing inflow of 27 billion yuan [39]. 5.2 Secondary Market - In March, the spreads of most financial institutions narrowed slightly, with the spreads of AA+-rated banks narrowing the most [44]. - The spreads of brokerage subordinated bonds narrowed significantly, while the spreads of TLAC bonds remained stable [48]. - The trading volume and turnover rate of bank perpetual bonds and secondary capital bonds increased significantly in March [52][56]. - No new cases of non-redemption of bank secondary capital bonds were reported in March, but investors are still advised to be cautious about the non-redemption risk of weak urban and rural commercial banks [60]. Group 6: ABS 6.1 Primary Market - In March, 189 ABS projects were issued, raising a total of 171.7 billion yuan, a significant increase from February in terms of both the number of projects and the total financing amount [61]. - Personal consumption loan ABS had the largest issuance scale, followed by financial leasing and microloan ABS [61]. - The issuance scale of real estate ABS increased in March, with a total of 3.4 billion yuan issued, mainly including CMBS and supply chain ABS [63]. - High-grade bonds still dominated the ABS market in March, with AAAsf-rated bonds accounting for 94% of the issuance scale. The issuance costs of short-term bonds increased significantly [64]. 6.2 Secondary Market - In March, the short and medium-term yields of ABS decreased significantly, while the long-term yields remained flat. The short and medium-term credit spreads also narrowed [65]. - The secondary trading volume of ABS increased significantly in March, reaching 185.5 billion yuan, almost doubling from the previous month. The top three types of underlying assets in terms of trading volume were Reits, personal consumption loans, and accounts receivable ABS [67]. - Some Sunac ABS were traded at a significant discount in March [67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company demonstrates stable operations with high dividends, and new project layouts are expected to open up growth opportunities [1] - The forecast for EPS from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 0.43, 0.46, and 0.52 yuan respectively, with a target price set at 11.61 yuan based on a 27 times P/E ratio for 2025 [2][8] Financial Information - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 799 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 152.4%. Projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 808 million yuan (+1.2%), 863 million yuan (+6.8%), 915 million yuan (+6.0%), and 972 million yuan (+6.2%) respectively [4] - Operating profit for 2023 is 319 million yuan, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 2517.0%. The projections for the following years are 300 million yuan (-5.8%), 326 million yuan (+8.6%), 351 million yuan (+7.7%), and 390 million yuan (+11.2%) [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 227 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5971.9%. The projections for the next years are 211 million yuan (-7.3%), 236 million yuan (+12.0%), 255 million yuan (+8.0%), and 284 million yuan (+11.5%) [4] - The gross margin for 2023 is 58.7%, with projections of 57.4% for 2024, 58.9% for 2025, 59.7% for 2026, and 60.9% for 2027 [4] - The net margin for 2023 is 28.5%, with projections of 26.1% for 2024, 27.4% for 2025, 27.9% for 2026, and 29.2% for 2027 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) for 2023 is 9.2%, with projections of 8.4% for 2024, 8.9% for 2025, 9.0% for 2026, and 9.7% for 2027 [4] Business Performance - The company reported a strong performance in Q4, with a revenue of 173 million yuan (+10.0%) and a net profit of 19 million yuan (+19.2%) during the off-peak season [7] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 91%, with a cash dividend proposal of 3.50 yuan per 10 shares [7] - The company’s three cableway operations received a total of 6.6684 million visitors in 2024, representing an increase of 8.9% year-on-year [7]

郑煤机 601717.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 24 年业绩稳健增长，红利价值凸显 ——郑煤机 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到煤炭行业景气度短期承压，我们小幅下调公司收入增速；24 年公司利润率较高的煤机产 品占比提升，我们预期 25 年或逐渐回归正常均值水平，我们小幅下调 25 年毛利率预期；企业 具有优秀的费用控制和成本管控能力，我们下调期间费用率。而随着行业需求修复和规模效应 提升，我们认为板块 26-27 年盈利将继续提升。我们预测公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别 39.34、43.63、48.65 亿元，每股收益分别为 2.20、2.44、2.73 元（原预测 2025-2026 年每股 收益分别为 2.20、2.48 元），参考可比公司估值，给予公司 25 年 10.6 倍 PE ，对应目标价约 为 23.32 元，维持买入评级。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 36,396 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.75 CNY based on a 21x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown stable performance, with a slight decline in revenue for 2024 but a projected recovery in the following years. The revenue is expected to grow from 8.498 billion CNY in 2024 to 10.248 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.4% [4][9]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and has a robust pipeline with 98 products under development, including two classic traditional Chinese medicine formulations that are in the production application stage [9]. - The acquisition by China Resources Sanjiu is anticipated to enhance the company's competitive edge through improved management and marketing resources [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 8.674 billion CNY, with a slight decrease to 8.498 billion CNY in 2024, followed by an increase to 9.069 billion CNY in 2025 [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to recover from 956 million CNY in 2024 to 1.423 billion CNY by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 17.6% in 2025 [4]. - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable around 66.5% to 66.7% from 2025 to 2027, indicating consistent profitability [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.75 CNY based on a 21x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown stable performance, with a slight decline in revenue in 2024 but a projected recovery in the following years. The revenue for 2024 is expected to be 8.498 billion CNY, down 2.0% year-on-year, while the net profit is projected at 956 million CNY, a decrease of 10.8% [9]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and has a robust pipeline with 98 products under development, including two classic traditional Chinese medicine formulations that are in the production application stage [9]. - The acquisition by China Resources Sanjiu is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge through improved management and marketing resources [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 8.674 billion CNY - 2024: 8.498 billion CNY - 2025: 9.069 billion CNY (6.7% growth) - 2026: 9.723 billion CNY (7.2% growth) - 2027: 10.248 billion CNY (5.4% growth) [4][11] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 1.071 billion CNY - 2024: 0.956 billion CNY - 2025: 1.124 billion CNY (17.6% growth) - 2026: 1.325 billion CNY (17.9% growth) - 2027: 1.423 billion CNY (7.4% growth) [4][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.72 CNY - 2024: 0.64 CNY - 2025: 0.75 CNY - 2026: 0.89 CNY - 2027: 0.95 CNY [4][11] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 66.8% in 2023, projected to be around 66.5% in 2025 - Net Margin: 12.3% in 2023, expected to improve to 12.4% in 2025 - Return on Equity (ROE): 8.6% in 2023, projected to be 9.1% in 2025 [4][11].

核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据股权激励考核方案，上调 25、26 年收入；根据 24 年年报，对 25-26 年下调毛 利率，上调费用率。我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 2.66、3.21、3.64 元（原预测 25-26 年为 3.31、3.80 元）。结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理 估值水平为 2025 年的 23 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 61.18 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：消费需求不及预期、夜郎古业绩增速不及预期、市场竞争加剧风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7,087 | 5,357 | 6,457 | 7,253 | 7,995 | | 同比增长 (%) | 17.0% | -24.4% | 20.5% | 12.3% | 10.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,302 | 568 | 1,189 | 1,457 | 1,655 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.0% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 7.82 CNY for 2025, based on a 17x PE valuation [2][9]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 14.63 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.14 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 1.4% [8]. - The company plans to continue its high dividend payout, with an expected dividend rate of 82.9% for 2024 [8]. - The company successfully opened new stores under both of its brands, with a net increase of 108 stores in casual wear and 280 stores in children's wear [8]. - The online sales channel saw a gross margin increase, with online sales revenue growing by 7.1% [8]. - The company is actively expanding into international markets, having opened over 30 new stores in countries such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam [8]. Financial Summary - The company's projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.46 CNY, 0.53 CNY, and 0.61 CNY, respectively [2][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 15.78 billion CNY in 2025 to 18.71 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding profit growth [6]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable, with slight improvements expected over the forecast period [6]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to increase from 7.9% in 2025 to 8.7% in 2027 [6].

威高骨科 688161.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 业绩向好，集采扰动逐步出清 ——威高骨科 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 2024 年报，由于骨科各品类集采均逐步出清，我们调整收入、毛利率、费用率 假设，调整预测公司 2025-2027年每股收益分别为 0.73/0.83/0.85元（原2025-2026 年 EPS 为 0.82/1.01 元），参照可比公司，我们给予公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年 的 44 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 32.12 元，维持增持评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 骨科集采政策超预期、渠道拓展不及预期、新业务拓展不及预期等风险。 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | 6.24 | 6.97 | 16.81 | 9.26 | | 相对表现% | 7.37 | 7.03 | 18.01 | 1.14 | | 沪深 300% | -1.13 | -0.06 | -1.2 | 8.12 | 伍云飞 wuyunfei1@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 34.80 CNY based on a 58 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [5][8]. Core Views - The company has shown a return to growth with significant improvements in gross margin and cash flow, achieving a revenue of 4.012 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.22%, and a net profit of 602 million CNY, up 3.71% [11]. - The growth in the formulation and medical device segments is accelerating, driven by channel expansion and new product launches, with the formulation revenue reaching 3.192 billion CNY, a 20.43% increase [11]. - The company is advancing its R&D pipeline, with several projects nearing completion, including four in the NDA stage and three in Phase III clinical trials, indicating a strong innovation trajectory [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 3.365 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 4.012 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 19.2% growth [7]. - The gross margin improved to 72.64% in 2024, up 4.06 percentage points from the previous year [11]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 15.0%, with net profit expected to reach 666 million CNY by 2025, a 10.7% increase from 2024 [7][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 9.20 CNY [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance is expected to improve in the coming quarters, supported by cost advantages and a strong market position in the industry [4][5] - The company is anticipated to benefit from its integrated layout, particularly in the upstream raw materials for spandex production, which will enhance its cost competitiveness [9] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 26,298 million CNY in 2023, with a projected revenue of 26,931 million CNY in 2024, and a slight decline to 26,114 million CNY in 2025, followed by growth in subsequent years [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 2,478 million CNY in 2023 to 2,220 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 2,282 million CNY in 2025 [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.46 CNY in 2025, with a gradual increase to 0.58 CNY by 2027 [5][7] Industry Insights - The report indicates that the industry is currently at a low point in terms of profitability, but the company is positioned to expand during this period, potentially leading to greater profit elasticity in the next economic cycle [9] - The report notes that the price differentials for spandex and adipic acid have been narrowing, which has impacted margins, but the company’s cost advantages may allow it to navigate these challenges effectively [9]