2025 年 5 月 11 日 策略研究 《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》对市场的影响 ——策略周专题（2025 年 5 月第 1 期） 要点 本周 A 股收涨 本周 A 股市场表现较好，主要受益于多重利好因素推动。本周上涨个股占整个 A 股的比例为 84.5%，周涨幅超过 5%的个股占整个 A 股的比例为 26.5%。从上涨的 驱动因素来看，本周 A 股上涨主要受益于多重利好因素推动，包括国内政策积极发 力、市场对中美经贸摩擦缓和的预期升温、企业盈利增速回升以及人民币汇率外部 压力缓解等。 《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》对市场的影响 5 月 7 日，《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》(以下简称《行动方案》)印发， 预计相关方案将会对 A 股市场及基金行业配置产生深远影响。《行动方案》坚持问 题导向、目标导向，提出一系列回应市场和社会关切的改革措施，着力督促基金公 司、基金销售机构等行业机构从"重规模"向"重回报"转变，形成行业高质量发 展的"拐点"。 市场风格或将在防御与成长风格之间轮动 市场在未来或将处于"弱现实、弱情绪"或"弱现实、强情绪"情景，对应于防御 与成长风格的轮动，防御风格主要关注稳定类 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook for investment over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 14% in Q1 2025, reaching $1.103 billion, but net profit declined by 38% to $6.24 million, primarily due to adverse currency fluctuations [1]. - The revenue from the automotive and network businesses showed significant growth, while smartphone revenue decreased. The company has adjusted its revenue growth guidance for smartphone and system terminal products downward for the full year 2025 [1][2]. - The company aims to increase the revenue contribution from its three main business areas—5G AIoT, EV, and Audio—from 33% in 2024 to 40% by 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $1.103 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, while net profit was $6.24 million, a 38% decrease year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 0.56% [1]. - Revenue breakdown: smartphone (-6%), network infrastructure (+46%), computers and consumer electronics (+13%), electric vehicles (+89%), and system terminal products (-4%) [1]. Business Growth Areas - The network infrastructure segment is expected to maintain double-digit growth (>15%) in Q2 2025, driven by demand for AI servers and platform upgrades [2]. - The automotive business is also projected to grow at a double-digit rate (>15%) in Q2 2025, aided by localization efforts to mitigate tariff impacts [2]. Acoustic and Consumer Electronics - The acoustic production line's yield exceeded expectations, and a new production line in India is expected to be operational by 2025 [3]. - Smartphone revenue accounted for 17% of total revenue in Q1 2025, with a decline in average selling price (ASP) attributed to an increase in low-end models [3]. Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to $224 million, $292 million, and $341 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 8%, 10%, and 13% from previous estimates [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is $5.046 billion, with a growth rate of 13.4% [5].

2025 年 5 月 10 日 公司研究 受中国市场拖累，25Q1 量价均承压 ——百威亚太（1876.HK）2025 年一季度业绩点评 要点 事件：百威亚太 25Q1 实现营收 14.61 亿美元，内生同比 -7.5%；正常化 EBITDA 为 4.85 亿美元，内生同比-11.2%；归母净利润为 2.34 亿美元，同比-18.5%。 25Q1 东部地区销量及收入同比增长，西部地区继续承压。 | 指标 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 6,856 | 6,246 | 6,283 | 6,471 | 6,646 | | 营业收入增长率 | 5.8% | -8.9% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | | 净利润（百万美元） | 852 | 726 | 752 | 797 | 841 | | 净利润增长率 | -6.7% | -14.8% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | | EPS（美元） | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electronic industry [6] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the electronic industry showed significant growth, with a total net profit of 83.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [12][18] - The top three sub-industries in terms of year-on-year net profit growth were Display (25.1 billion yuan, +565%), AI Supply Chain (128.2 billion yuan, +65%), and PCB (52.9 billion yuan, +58%) [12][18] - Among 74 sub-sectors, the fastest-growing sectors included Display-Equipment (+1172%), PCB-Materials (+361%), and LED-Chips (+279%) [14][15] Summary by Relevant Sections Sub-industry Performance - The electronic industry is divided into 23 sub-industries, with Display, AI Supply Chain, and PCB leading in net profit growth [12][18] - The semiconductor sub-industry's top companies included Haiguang Information (5.06 billion yuan, +75%), Cambrian-U (3.55 billion yuan, turning profitable), and Northern Huachuang (15.81 billion yuan, +40%) [3][18] Key Companies - The top five companies in the electronic industry by net profit in Q1 2025 were: 1. Industrial Fulian: 52.31 billion yuan, +25% 2. Haiguang Information: 5.06 billion yuan, +75% 3. Cambrian-U: 3.55 billion yuan, turning profitable 4. Hikvision: 20.39 billion yuan, +6% 5. Northern Huachuang: 15.81 billion yuan, +40% [18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core technology sectors such as semiconductors amidst trade tensions, and highlights the potential for AI applications in various scenarios like edge computing, smart driving, and robotics [3][4] - It emphasizes the continued benefits for computing infrastructure, particularly within the domestic computing supply chain [3][4]

2025 年 5 月 9 日 总量研究 对于重启国债买卖的思考 ——2025 年 5 月 9 日利率债观察 要点 1、对于重启国债买卖的思考 "人民银行何时重启国债买卖？"这是过去几个月里投资者一直热议的话题。今 日（2025 年 5 月 9 日）发布的《2025 年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》提到 "中国人民银行将继续从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行情况，关注国债收 益率的变化，视市场供求状况择机恢复操作"，更是激起了市场对于重启国债买 卖的期待。 投资者盼望央行买入国债，无非是认为这能推高债券市场价格。事实上，去年 12 月国债收益率的快速下行，或多或少是受到了央行净买入国债的影响。（注： 实践证明，即便央行买入的是短债、直接影响的是短债收益率，经传导后最终也 会形成长债收益率的下行。） 央行的国债买卖主要定位于基础货币投放和流动性管理工具，而该工具的使用难 免会对国债收益率形成显性或是隐性的影响。现阶段，对债券收益率形成下行压 力是该工具的副作用，我们相信这也是货币当局尽力避免的。 在重启国债买卖后，如何尽量减小甚至是避免其对债券收益率形成的副作用？我 们认为，未来还可以考虑在操作时机把握、发行方式 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [6]. Core Insights - MXD6, a high-performance engineering plastic, is primarily used in lightweight applications for automobiles and drones, as well as in barrier packaging materials. Its properties include high strength, rigidity, heat resistance, wear resistance, aging resistance, chemical resistance, flame retardancy, and high barrier performance [1][10]. - The global market for MXD6 is projected to grow from approximately $410 million in 2024 to $760 million by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 7.1%. In the automotive sector, the market size is expected to increase from $132 million in 2023 to $225 million by 2033 [2][15]. - Major global suppliers of MXD6 include Mitsubishi Gas Chemical and Solvay, while domestic companies like Sinochem International and Qicai Chemical are breaking through technical barriers and ramping up production [3][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The MXD6 market is expected to see significant growth due to the rising demand for lightweight materials in emerging industries such as low-altitude economy and robotics [2][15]. - The production capacity of MXD6 is estimated to be around 30,000 to 40,000 tons globally in 2024 [15]. Supplier Landscape - Mitsubishi Gas Chemical has a production capacity of 19,000 tons/year, while Solvay has 8,000 tons/year. Domestic players are also making strides, with Sinochem International developing high-performance engineering plastics and Qicai Chemical entering trial production for a 5,000 tons/year MXD6 project [3][16]. Applications - MXD6 is utilized in packaging materials due to its superior gas barrier properties, effectively preventing oxygen permeation and carbon dioxide loss. It can be co-extruded or co-injected with materials like PET, PP, and PE to create multi-layer films, sheets, and bottles [1][13]. - In plastic modification, MXD6 can be compounded with glass fibers, carbon fibers, and mineral fillers to produce enhanced materials suitable for high-quality structural components in automotive and electronic applications [1][13].

- The report predicts the adjustment of 8 components in the CSI 300 Index and 50 components in the CSI 500 Index for June 2025[1][8] - The methodology for prediction is based on the detailed analysis of the index compilation rules by China Securities Index Co., including aspects like sample space construction, suspension exclusion, and financial loss exclusion, as outlined in a previous report[7] - The reasons for component adjustments include changes in daily average trading volume and market capitalization rankings, which are the primary criteria for inclusion or exclusion[9][11][12]

2025 年 5 月 9 日 行业研究 4 月金融数据前瞻及 5 月流动性展望 ——流动性观察第 109 期 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 3 月金融数据前瞻及 4 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 108 期 2 月金融数据前瞻及 3 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 107 期 1 月金融数据前瞻及 2 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 106 期 12 月金融数据前瞻及 1 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 105 期 11 月金融数据前瞻及 12 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 104 期 10 月金融数据前瞻及 11 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 103 期 9 月金融数据前瞻及 10 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 102 期 1Q25 信贷投放同比多增，达到历史次高水平，信用活动呈现较强"靠前发 ...

2025 年 5 月 9 日 要点 事件 : 公司 2024 年实现营业收入 323.21 亿元，同比+22.23%；实现归母净利润 17.48 亿元，同比+29.76%。2025 年 Q1 实现营业收入 81.24 亿元，同比+13.07%； 实现归母净利润 4.40 亿元，同比+21.46%。 点评：2024 年单吨净利同比显著提升。2024 年公司实现销量 146.72 万吨，同 比增长 18.8%，单吨净利润 1191.7 元/吨，较 2023 年提升 100.5 元/吨，2024 年公司在新能源、电子家电、汽车及交通运输领域产品占比提高约 5Pct，产销 量高增长的同时产品结构持续优化。分季度看，2024 年 Q1-Q4 公司产品单吨净 利润分别为 1052.6/1904.4/893.3/907.0 元/吨。2025 年 Q1 公司铝板带箔产量 为 38.46 万吨，同比增长 11.58%，销量为 37.49 万吨，同比增长 10.33%。 取消出口退税政策实施，销量未受显著影响。财政部、税务总局宣布自 2024 年 12 月 1 日起，取消铝材等产品出口退税。中国铝材加工产能占全球六成以上， 在产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, considering the significant growth in overseas revenue in Q1 2025 and the promising application space for its drug and device projects [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing a performance transformation period, with a notable increase in overseas revenue in Q1 2025, while domestic orders have decreased significantly due to price pressures and competition [2][3]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 227 million yuan, a decrease of 22.26% year-on-year, and a net profit of 30 million yuan, down 74.22% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 69 million yuan, an increase of 6.66% year-on-year, but the net profit decreased by 17.79% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 227 million yuan, with a net profit of 30 million yuan and a significant decline in both metrics compared to the previous year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the operating revenue was 69 million yuan, with a net profit of 12 million yuan, indicating a mixed performance with revenue growth but profit decline [1][3]. Market Dynamics - Domestic market orders have decreased significantly due to price competition and pressure from downstream commercialization products [2]. - Internationally, the customer structure has shifted, with a slight overall revenue decrease; however, orders from overseas pharmaceutical clients have increased significantly due to new drug launches [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been significantly reduced, with expected net profits of 53 million yuan and 124 million yuan respectively, down 68% and 37% from previous estimates [4]. - The report projects a net profit of 172 million yuan for 2027, with an estimated EPS of 0.88, 2.05, and 2.83 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].