Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement. As of January 23, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,340 CNY/ton, up 0.57% from January 16, while LME copper closed at 13,129 USD/ton, up 2.54% from January 16 [1] - The report highlights that the TC spot price has reached a historical low, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate procurement. Although cable manufacturers' operating rates have improved, domestic social inventory continues to rise, which may suppress demand due to rising copper prices. However, the outlook for 2026 remains optimistic for copper price increases [1][4] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.9%, while LME copper inventory rose by 16.9% as of January 23, 2026. The main port copper concentrate inventory in China was 719,000 tons, up 4.1% from the previous week [2] - The TC spot price was recorded at -50 USD/ton, marking a historical low. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [3][4] Futures Market - As of January 23, 2026, the active SHFE copper contract had a position of 231,000 lots, an increase of 6.4% from the previous week, indicating strong market interest [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to continue rising. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, with a focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hangzhou Bank (600926.SH) with a current price of 15.28 CNY [1] Core Insights - Hangzhou Bank reported a revenue of approximately 38.8 billion CNY for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 19.03 billion CNY, up 12.1% year-on-year [4][5] - The bank's strategic planning for 2021-2025 has been successfully concluded, with a focus on maintaining double-digit profit growth [5] - The bank's net interest income increased by 12.8% year-on-year, supported by a gradual increase in loan growth in the second half of the year [5][6] - Non-interest income, however, saw a decline of 19.5% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year [5] Financial Performance Summary - As of the end of 2025, total assets grew by 12% year-on-year, with loans and non-loan assets increasing by 14.3% and 10.1% respectively [6][7] - The loan-to-asset ratio improved to 45.3%, up 0.9 percentage points from the beginning of the year, indicating a strong focus on key sectors such as manufacturing and technology [6] - The bank's deposit growth remained robust, with total liabilities increasing by 11.4% year-on-year and deposits accounting for 65.4% of total liabilities [7] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio exceeding 500% [7] Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 2.72 CNY for 2025, with projected EPS growth of 16.3% in 2026 and 16.8% in 2027 [8][10] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios for 2025-2027 are estimated at 0.88, 0.77, and 0.67 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [8][10]

Strategy Overview - The report suggests maintaining a steady investment approach and holding stocks through the holiday season, anticipating a continued slight upward trend in the market despite some sector differentiation and reduced trading enthusiasm [1] - It is expected that the market will experience a new upward momentum after the Spring Festival, with historical data indicating a higher probability of index gains in the 20 trading days following the holiday [1] - Growth and small-cap styles are expected to outperform in the spring market, with a focus on sectors such as semiconductors, AI hardware, and new energy [1] Key Industries Renewable Energy - The photovoltaic sector is catalyzed by commercial space news, with plans for significant solar capacity expansion by SpaceX and Tesla [2] - The hydrogen and ammonia sector is expected to receive more investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan due to supportive policies [2] - The European offshore wind industry remains robust, with order fulfillment expected to continue [2] - Focus on energy storage and lithium battery upstream materials, particularly lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate [2] Petrochemicals - The strategic value of deep-sea resource development is highlighted amid geopolitical tensions, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation leading in offshore resource development [2] - The company is expected to strengthen its oil and gas operations while exploring marine mineral resources [2] Construction Materials - The construction materials sector is entering a traditional off-season, with infrastructure investment expected to maintain a front-loaded pace despite high base effects from the previous year [2] - Key investments from the State Grid focus on power grid and energy storage, with significant projects planned for 2026 [2] Electronics and Communication - AI is identified as a core theme in electronics, with significant capital expenditure growth expected from major cloud providers [5] - The storage industry is projected to see substantial revenue growth, particularly in DRAM [5] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in AI, storage, and Huawei's Ascend series chips [5] Machinery Manufacturing - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing accelerated export growth, with recommendations to focus on leading manufacturers and component suppliers [5] - Data center equipment demand is rising, suggesting investment in related manufacturers [5] Automotive - The automotive market is expected to be driven by policy, with a slight decline in retail sales forecasted for 2026 [5] - Structural investment opportunities are anticipated in components, particularly for companies with strong performance [5] Financials - The insurance sector is expected to perform well in early 2026, benefiting from a favorable investment environment [5] - The banking sector is showing signs of recovery, with a focus on retail and small business lending [5] Pharmaceuticals - The medical device sector is at a low valuation, with strong earnings growth expected from leading companies [6] - The CXO sector is poised for growth due to stable order increases and geopolitical risks easing [6] Consumer Goods - The tourism sector is expected to thrive during the Spring Festival, with recommendations to focus on leading OTA and hotel companies [6] - The food and beverage sector is entering a peak sales season, with attention on performance during the holiday period [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The 2025 annual report on the banking wealth management market highlights five key characteristics: (1) a significant increase in wealth management scale by nearly 3.3 trillion yuan, (2) the rise of "fixed income+" products as a crucial growth driver amid a recovering capital market, (3) a decline in wealth management yields below 2%, (4) an increase in the allocation of wealth management to deposit-like assets reaching 28.2%, and (5) a stable number of wealth management companies at 32, with market share exceeding 90% [1][4][7]. Summary by Sections Scale - The wealth management scale increased by approximately 3.34 trillion yuan in 2025, achieving a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, with the end-of-year scale expected to be between 33-34 trillion yuan [4][9]. - The second half of 2025 contributed 78.4% of the total scale increase, with significant growth driven by factors such as deposit "disintermediation" and the release of "floating profits" [4][5]. Product Structure - Fixed income products maintained a stable share of around 97%, with "fixed income+" products growing by 16% to 10.8 trillion yuan [15][17]. - The structure of fixed income products showed a balance between cash management and non-cash management products, with cash management products at 7.04 trillion yuan [15]. Asset Allocation - The allocation to deposit-like assets increased to 28.2%, driven by the need for stability in net value and the relative yield advantages of deposits [23][25]. - Public funds saw an increase of 8.9 trillion yuan, with a notable contribution from the second and fourth quarters [25][26]. Wealth Management Returns - The average yield for wealth management products in 2025 was 1.98%, reflecting a decline compared to previous periods, with expectations for further weakening in 2026 [38][40]. Customer Behavior - The number of wealth management investors reached 143 million, with a strong preference for low-risk and medium-low-risk products, reflecting a conservative risk appetite among individual investors [42][44]. Competitive Landscape - The market share of wealth management companies reached 92.3%, with potential for further growth as distribution channels expand and non-licensed institutions reduce their scale [47][48].

- The report discusses a **quantitative timing model based on volume signals**, which indicates a "bullish" view for all major indices except the ChiNext Index as of January 23, 2026[30][31][33] - A **momentum sentiment indicator** is introduced, calculated as the proportion of stocks in the CSI 300 Index with positive returns over the past N days. The indicator is smoothed using two moving averages (N1=50, N2=35). When the short-term average exceeds the long-term average, it signals a bullish market sentiment[32][34][36] - The **moving average sentiment indicator** is based on the eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233). The indicator assigns values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the position of the current price relative to these moving averages. A value greater than 5 indicates a bullish signal for the CSI 300 Index[40][44] - The **cross-sectional volatility factor** is analyzed, showing that the CSI 300 Index's cross-sectional volatility increased week-over-week, indicating an improved short-term alpha environment. Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices decreased, suggesting a deteriorated alpha environment[45][46] - The **time-series volatility factor** is also evaluated, revealing that the time-series volatility for the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased week-over-week, indicating a worsening alpha environment. Over the past quarter, the CSI 300 Index's volatility was in the lower range of the past six months, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices were in the middle range[46][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank (招商银行) [1] Core Insights - In 2025, China Merchants Bank achieved operating revenue of 337.5 billion, essentially flat year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 150.2 billion, representing a 1.2% increase [3][4] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) was 13.44%, down 1.05 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - The bank's revenue and net profit growth rates improved slightly compared to the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue growth turning positive for the first time since Q1 2023 [4] - The bank's non-interest income decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in previous quarters, indicating a potential recovery in wealth management and asset management services [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total assets grew by 7.6% year-on-year, with loans and non-loan assets increasing by 5.4% and 10.4%, respectively [5] - The loan-to-asset ratio was 55.5%, down 1.2 percentage points from the beginning of the year, reflecting a balanced approach to loan growth amid weak demand [5] - Deposits grew at a stable rate of around 8%, with total liabilities increasing by 8% year-on-year [5] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.94%, with a provision coverage ratio of 391.8% [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 6.05, 6.33, and 6.64 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.82, 0.75, and 0.69 [6][8] - The bank's strategic goal is to become a "value bank," with a strong focus on retail banking, which is expected to benefit from supportive government policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights that the spandex industry is at a turning point, with prices reaching historical lows and recent price increases indicating a recovery in the industry [1][2] - The report emphasizes the limited new capacity in the spandex sector and the exit of outdated capacity, suggesting a favorable supply-demand balance and a positive outlook for the spandex industry [2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to enhance the recovery of the "refining-chemical fiber" industry chain, with improvements in market competition and supply-demand dynamics [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Spandex prices have dropped from a peak of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, a decline of 72% [1] - The report notes that spandex production capacity in China is projected to grow from 925,000 tons in 2020 to 1,430,000 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The apparent consumption of spandex in China is expected to increase from 720,000 tons in 2020 to 1,060,000 tons by 2025, with a CAGR of 6.7% [2] - The report indicates that the spandex industry is entering a recovery phase due to the reduction in new capacity and the exit of outdated production [2] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize market competition and improve the supply-demand balance in the refining and chemical fiber sectors [3] - The report suggests that the refining industry is nearing the end of capacity expansion, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester filament sector such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as well as spandex companies like Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs showed an upward trend. The returns of REITs ranked third among major asset classes, behind gold and convertible bonds. The returns of property - type REITs were higher than those of franchise - type REITs, and new infrastructure - type REITs had the largest increase among underlying asset types. The trading volume, turnover rate, and net inflow of main funds in the REITs market increased compared with the previous week, and the total amount of block trades also increased. There were no new REITs listed in the primary market this week, and the status of 5 REITs projects was updated [1][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price Trends - **At the major asset level**: The secondary - market prices of China's listed public REITs showed an upward trend. The China Securities REITs (closing) and China Securities REITs Total Return Index closed at 806.72 and 1047.51 respectively, with weekly returns of 2.09% and 2.17%. The weighted REITs index had a weekly return of 2.52%. Among major asset classes, the return ranking from high to low was: gold > convertible bonds > REITs > A - shares > crude oil > pure bonds > US stocks [11]. - **At the underlying asset level**: Both property - type and franchise - type REITs' secondary - market prices increased. The return of property - type REITs was 3.05%, and that of franchise - type REITs was 1.63%. New infrastructure - type REITs had the largest increase, with the top three underlying asset types in terms of return being new infrastructure, municipal facilities, and consumer - related, with returns of 5.88%, 4.85%, and 4.17% respectively [17][19]. - **At the single - REIT level**: 68 REITs rose and 10 fell. The top three in terms of increase were CICC Chongqing Liangjiang REIT, Huaan Bailian Consumer REIT, and Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT, with increases of 10.3%, 9.97%, and 7.27% respectively. The top three in terms of decrease were Huaan Zhangjiang Industrial Park REIT, Harvest China Power Construction Clean Energy REIT, and CITIC Construction Mingyang Smart New Energy REIT, with decreases of 2.88%, 1.54%, and 0.99% respectively. The top three in terms of annualized volatility were Huaan Bailian Consumer REIT, Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, and Huatai Baowan Logistics REIT, with annualized volatilities of 35.88%, 25.99%, and 24.65% respectively [22]. 3.1.2 Trading Volume and Turnover Rate - **At the underlying asset level**: The trading volume of public REITs this week was 3.89 billion yuan. New infrastructure - type REITs led in the average daily turnover rate during the period. The total trading volume of 78 listed REITs was 3.89 billion yuan, and the average daily turnover rate during the period was 0.80%. In terms of trading volume, the top three REIT asset types were consumer infrastructure, park infrastructure, and transportation infrastructure, with trading volumes of 942 million, 730 million, and 611 million yuan respectively. In terms of turnover rate, the top three REIT asset types were new infrastructure, water conservancy facilities, and municipal facilities, with average daily turnover rates of 1.44%, 0.91%, and 0.89% respectively [24]. - **At the single - REIT level**: The trading volume and turnover rate of single REITs continued to show differentiation. In terms of trading volume, the top three were Boshi Shekou Industrial Park REIT, CICC Puluosi REIT, and Huaxia Hefei High - tech REIT, with trading volumes of 360 million, 340 million, and 310 million shares respectively. In terms of trading value, the top three were Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, and CICC Puluosi REIT, with trading values of 297 million, 128 million, and 113 million yuan respectively. In terms of turnover rate, the top three were CITIC Construction Shenyang International Software Park REIT, Huaxia Jinyu Zhizao Factory REIT, and AVIC Yishang Warehouse Logistics REIT, with turnover rates of 14.27%, 9.89%, and 9.45% respectively [27]. 3.1.3 Net Inflow of Main Funds and Block Trade Situation - **Net inflow of main funds**: The total net inflow of main funds this week was 168.7 million yuan, and the market trading enthusiasm increased compared with the previous week. At the underlying asset level, the top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were consumer infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and energy infrastructure, with net inflows of 90.43 million, 47.71 million, and 20.55 million yuan respectively. At the single - REIT level, the top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, Guojin China Railway Construction REIT, and Huaxia Joy City Commercial REIT, with net inflows of 37.43 million, 36.26 million, and 18.75 million yuan respectively [30]. - **Block trade situation**: The total block trade amount this week reached 821 million yuan, an increase compared with the previous week. There were block trades on 5 trading days this week, with a total block trade value of 821 million yuan. The block trade value on Monday (January 19, 2026) was the highest during the period, reaching 236.09 million yuan. At the single - REIT level, the top three REITs in terms of block trade value were CITIC Construction State Power Investment New Energy REIT, Penghua Shenzhen Energy REIT, and Guojin China Railway Construction REIT, with trading values of 185.04 million, 145.72 million, and 112.48 million yuan respectively, and corresponding average discount/premium rates of 0.00%, - 0.47%, and + 0.20% respectively [32]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Listed Projects - As of January 23, 2026, there were 78 public REITs products in China, with a total issuance scale of 201.749 billion yuan. In terms of underlying asset types, transportation infrastructure had the largest issuance scale, reaching 68.771 billion yuan, followed by park infrastructure REITs, with an issuance scale of 32.933 billion yuan. There were no new REITs listed this week [35]. 3.2.2 Projects to be Listed - According to the project dynamics disclosed by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, there were 14 REITs in the state of being to be listed, including 12 initial - offering REITs and 2 REITs to be expanded. In addition, 5 REITs were in the "suspended" state. This week, the project statuses of Huaxia Wanwei Warehouse Logistics Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering), Chuangjinhexin Electronic City Industrial Park Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering), Harvest First - created Water Service Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (expansion), Jianxin Jinfeng New Energy Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering), and Jianxin Jianrongjiayuan Rental Housing Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund (initial offering) were updated to "suspended" [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The issuance volume of credit bonds increased overall on a weekly basis, and the credit spreads of various industries showed mixed trends. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issue Statistics - From January 19 to January 23, 2026, a total of 366 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 385.863 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 16.29%. Among them, 175 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 203.9 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 19.17%, accounting for 52.84% of the total issuance scale; 158 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 92.143 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 0.71%, accounting for 23.88%; 33 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 89.82 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 32.28%, accounting for 23.28%. [1][10] - The average issuance term of credit bonds this week was 2.88 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.40 years, urban investment bonds was 3.71 years, and financial bonds was 1.69 years. [1][14] - The average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds this week was 2.15%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.05%, urban investment bonds was 2.32%, and financial bonds was 1.85%. [2][19] 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics Two credit bonds were cancelled for issuance this week. [3][23] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - This week, the industry credit spreads showed mixed trends. Among Shenwan's primary industries, the largest decline in the AAA - rated industry credit spread was in the automotive sector, down 5.3BP; the largest increase in the AA + - rated industry credit spread was in the computer sector, up 3.9BP, and the largest decline was in the electronics sector, down 5.7BP; the largest increase in the AA - rated industry credit spread was in the electronics sector, up 0.2BP, and the largest decline was in the non - banking finance sector, down 6.9BP. [3][25] - The credit spreads of coal and steel declined overall this week. The credit spreads of AAA, AA +, and AA - rated coal decreased by 4.6BP, 1.2BP, and 2.6BP respectively. The credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated steel decreased by 4.6BP and 3BP respectively. [25] - The credit spreads of urban investment and non - urban investment bonds of all levels declined overall this week. The credit spreads of three levels of urban investment bonds decreased by 3.7BP, 3BP, and 3.7BP respectively; the credit spreads of three levels of non - urban investment bonds decreased by 3.1BP, 3.2BP, and 3.5BP respectively. [25] - The credit spreads of state - owned enterprises and private enterprises declined overall this week. The credit spreads of three levels of central state - owned enterprises decreased by 2.7BP, 4.8BP, and 3.2BP respectively; the credit spreads of three levels of local state - owned enterprises decreased by 3.3BP, 3.2BP, and 4.1BP respectively; the credit spreads of AAA and AA + - rated private enterprises decreased by 3.6BP and 0.3BP respectively. [26] - The regional urban investment credit spreads declined overall this week. The three regions with the highest AAA - rated credit spreads this week were Yunnan, Liaoning, and Shaanxi, with credit spreads of 97, 89, and 82BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA + - rated credit spreads were Qinghai, Yunnan, and Gansu, with credit spreads of 124, 118, and 117BPs respectively; the regions with the highest AA - rated credit spreads were Sichuan, Guangxi, and Yunnan, with credit spreads of 135, 125, and 124BPs respectively. The largest decline in the AAA - rated credit spread was in Liaoning, down 6.9BP; the largest decline in the AA + - rated credit spread was in Ningxia, down 6.6BP; the largest decline in the AA - rated credit spread was in Shaanxi, down 17.4BP. [28] 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 1687.18 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 20.18%. Among various types of credit bonds, the top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds reached 580.513 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 24.26%, accounting for 34.41% of the total credit bond trading volume this week; the trading volume of corporate bonds reached 444.52 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 20.49%, accounting for 26.35%; the trading volume of medium - term notes reached 362.291 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 19.12%, accounting for 21.47%. [3][29] 2.3 Actively Traded Bonds This Week The report selected the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week from DM client data for investors' reference. [31]

- The Beta factor and valuation factor achieved positive returns of 0.66% and 0.48% respectively, while the size factor had a negative return of -0.80%[1][18] - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were the 5-day average turnover rate (4.52%), 5-day reversal (3.17%), and price-to-book ratio factor (3.10%)[1][12] - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were the 5-day reversal (3.80%), single-quarter operating profit growth rate (1.98%), and price-to-sales ratio TTM reciprocal (1.65%)[1][14] - In the liquidity 1500 stock pool, the best-performing factors this week were the post-morning return factor (2.18%), 5-day reversal (2.17%), and standardized unexpected income (1.77%)[2][16] - The PB-ROE-50 portfolio achieved positive excess returns in various stock pools this week, with excess returns of 1.38% in the CSI 500 stock pool, 2.54% in the CSI 800 stock pool, and 4.23% in the entire market stock pool[2][23] - The public research stock selection strategy and private research tracking strategy achieved positive excess returns this week, with the public research stock selection strategy achieving an excess return of 0.61% relative to the CSI 800, and the private research tracking strategy achieving an excess return of 3.43% relative to the CSI 800[3][25] - The block trading portfolio achieved a positive excess return of 0.86% relative to the CSI All Share Index this week[3][29] - The directed issuance portfolio achieved a positive excess return of 1.32% relative to the CSI All Share Index this week[3][35]