2025 年 4 月 29 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【金融工程】各类行业主题基金普遍上涨，被动资金显著加仓黄金 ETF——基金市场 与 ESG 产品周报 20250428 本周权益型基金净值明显上涨，中长期纯债型基金业绩小幅回调；各类行业主题基金 均呈现上涨，新能源主题基金表现占优，上涨 2.76%。股票型 ETF 资金呈现净流出， 大盘宽基 ETF 为资金流出的主要方向，黄金 ETF 为代表的商品型 ETF 资金流入超百 亿。从主动资金行业配置动向看，有色金属、电子、银行等行业获主动资金增配。 【金融工程】市场波动温和提升，杠铃组合或占优——金融工程市场跟踪周报 20250428 上周 A 股窄幅震荡，市场整体表现不佳。主要宽基指数量能维持近期低位，量能择时 指标仍维持谨慎信号。资金面方面，ETF 资金周度净流出，大盘宽基 ETF 为净流出主 要方向。市场波动方面，主要宽基指数截面波动率、时序波动率环比上周皆有上升。 行业研究 【环保】25 年新增核准 10 台核电机组，可控核聚变领域近期频现突破——碳中和领 域动态跟踪（一百五十七）(买入) 我国核电项目审批已经进入规模化核准阶段。" ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 36.88 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.10%, while gross profit decreased by 7.35% to 2.32 billion RMB, resulting in a gross margin of 6.3% [1][2]. - The decline in revenue from metal components is attributed to a decrease in high-end smartphone sales from major North American clients, despite a 1.5% increase in global smartphone shipments [2]. - The company is expected to enhance its market share with North American clients and improve efficiency through automation, while also expanding its AI-related product offerings [2]. - The growth in the electric vehicle market and advancements in intelligent driving technology are projected to drive significant revenue growth in the company's automotive business in 2025 [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow from 129.96 billion RMB in 2023 to 194.50 billion RMB in 2025, with a net profit expected to rise from 4.04 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.30 billion RMB in 2025 [4][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.79 RMB in 2023 to 2.35 RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 24.2% [4][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 17 in 2023 to 13 in 2025, indicating a potentially more attractive valuation as earnings grow [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [3][5] Core Views - The company's core business is developing steadily, with a slight increase in user numbers and a focus on technological innovation and R&D investment [1][2] - The company is expected to see improvements in free cash flow and a continuous increase in cash dividends, aligning with long-term trends in the telecommunications sector [3][2] - The report forecasts a slight adjustment in net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026, with projected net profits of 359 billion and 376 billion RMB respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 134.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.01%, with service revenue at 124.7 billion RMB, up 0.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.9 billion RMB, reflecting a 3.1% year-on-year growth [1] - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 1.94%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points year-on-year [1] User Growth and Business Segments - The mobile communication business showed steady growth, with mobile users reaching 430 million, a net increase of 4.95 million [1] - The number of 5G network users reached 270 million, with a net increase of 15.48 million, resulting in a penetration rate of 62.0% [1] - Fixed-line and smart home services also maintained good growth, with broadband users at 200 million, a net increase of 670,000 [1] R&D and Innovation - The company reported IDC revenue of 9.5 billion RMB in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [2] - Smart revenue grew by 151.6%, while satellite communication revenue increased by 37.2% [2] - R&D expenses were 1.8 billion RMB, up 11.5% year-on-year, reflecting a commitment to technological innovation [2] Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure guidance for 2024 is set at 93.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year, with expectations for 2025 to be 83.6 billion RMB [2] - The company plans to increase cash dividends, aiming for a distribution of over 75% of the profit attributable to shareholders within three years [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report provides a profit forecast with operating revenue expected to grow from 507.84 billion RMB in 2023 to 579.9 billion RMB in 2027 [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 35.93 billion RMB, with a corresponding A-share PE ratio of 20X [4][3]

研究背景 美国创新药与美元霸权： 钱到底怎么来的？ ——美式医药资本游戏指南与流动性时钟 分析师：王明瑞 执业证书编号：S0930520080004 021-52523867 wangmingrui@ebscn.com 2025年4月29日 证券研究报告 当今世界进入百年未有之大变局，作为全球创新药高地的美国市场生出诸多变数， 若想看懂美国创新药市场在十字路口的前景未来，必须先理解美国创新药的过往 生态。市场过往研究往往聚焦于创新药的资产端（货），但是如今美国市场大量 的变数来源于资金端（币），本研究着重于创新药的资金侧研究，拆解美国创新 药的资金运转原理，尝试搞清楚"钱到底怎么来的？"，并基于资金和资产的相 互作用，构建创新药投资的流动性时钟。 本研究涉及内容庞杂，包含光大证券研究所过往在医药和宏观领域的众多研究， 本报告将直接引用过往研究的结论，不再赘述论证过程。相关报告请参考： | 发布 | 报告标题 | 核心要点 | 分析师 | 下文简称 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | | | | | 2025. | 《医疗总现金流原理与医药投资论持久 | 一个国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the chemical industry, specifically for the petrochemical and transportation sectors [4]. Core Views - The macroeconomic recovery in China, driven by various government measures to stabilize employment and promote economic growth, is expected to positively impact the chemical industry, leading to a rebound in profitability for chemical products in 2025 [1][2]. - The report anticipates a recovery in cyclical sectors such as refining, MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate), agricultural chemicals, and vitamins, with overall chemical prices expected to rise from their current lows [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The Chinese government has introduced several measures to stabilize employment and promote economic growth, which are expected to support the chemical industry [1]. - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rate of 5% for the entire year of 2024 [1]. 2. Chemical Product Price Trends - Refining: Lower energy prices are expected to ease cost pressures for downstream refining companies, with a positive outlook for large refining and coal chemical enterprises [2]. - MDI: Major companies have increased MDI prices by €175 per ton in Europe and $100-$300 per ton in other regions, although the average industry price continues to decline [2]. - Agricultural Chemicals: Potash prices have rebounded due to seasonal demand and tariffs, while phosphate prices are also showing signs of recovery [2]. - Vitamins: Supply for certain vitamins is shifting towards China, with prices for Vitamin D3 rising significantly [2]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend companies in the oil sector, including China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3]. - It also highlights opportunities in domestic material companies benefiting from the trend of domestic substitution, as well as in the agricultural chemicals and private refining sectors [3]. - Companies in the vitamin and methionine sectors are also recommended for investment [3].

2025 年 4 月 28 日 公司研究 计提资产减值致盈利承压，稳步推进新能源电站建设 ——九洲集团（300040.SZ）2024 年年报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 14.81 亿元，同比+22.09%， 实现归母净利润-5.45 亿元，同比-678.26%；2024Q4 实现营业收入 5.08 亿元， 同比+24.14%，实现归母净利润-6.18 亿元，同比大幅亏损。 加速推进新能源电站建设，智能配用电业务稳中有增。 2024 年公司积极推进新能源项目开发建设，泰来九洲大型 100MW 风电项目顺 利并网，安达九洲火山 250MW 光伏发电项目、安达九洲石山 250MW 光伏发电 项目开工建设，带动公司新能源工程业务收入同比增长 136.41%至 1.15 亿元， 毛利率同比增长 45.14 个 pct 至 62.62%。公司智能配电网业务 2024 年营业收 入同比增长 20.26%至 4.86 亿元，毛利率同比减少 0.24 个 pct 至 19.87%。 重点布局新能源电站建设和运营，2025 年计划向各子公司增资 10 亿元。 公司持续推进新能源项目投资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 10.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.42% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 46.53% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 594 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.38% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 38.61% [5] - The company is focused on enhancing operational efficiency and cost control, leading to a significant increase in net profit [6][8] - The three main business segments—energy technology services, low-carbon environmental protection and digitalization, and energy logistics services—are all showing steady growth [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit increase of 18% driven by high oil prices and domestic market growth [6] - The annualized ROE for Q1 2025 was 8.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 12.90%, up by 1.02 percentage points [8] Business Segments - The energy technology services segment has shown significant capability improvements, contributing major profit increases [7] - The low-carbon and digitalization segment has seen growth in new energy technology services and pipeline coating projects [7] - The energy logistics segment has benefited from increased service volume and sales, offsetting price fluctuations due to international oil price changes [7] Industry Outlook - The global oil service market is expected to continue its growth, with a projected market size of 326.5 billion USD in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [9] - The parent company, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), is actively pursuing a "seven-year action plan" for oil and gas production increase, which is expected to benefit the company in the long term [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.262 billion yuan, 4.698 billion yuan, and 5.215 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2025-2026 and introduces a new forecast for 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.42, 0.46, and 0.51 yuan per share [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances (000651.SZ) with a target price of 54.10 CNY [1][7]. Core Insights - Gree Electric Appliances reported better-than-expected performance in both its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report, achieving a revenue of 190 billion CNY (down 7% year-on-year) and a net profit of 32.2 billion CNY (up 11% year-on-year) for 2024. For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 41.6 billion CNY (up 14% year-on-year) and a net profit of 5.9 billion CNY (up 26% year-on-year) [4][5]. Revenue Analysis - The revenue from consumer appliances in 2024 was 148.6 billion CNY (78% of total revenue, down 4% year-on-year), with a notable decline in H2 2024 [5]. - The company’s other business revenue (raw material trading) was 20.3 billion CNY (11% of total revenue, down 33% year-on-year), indicating a focus on core business [5]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin improved year-on-year, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 net profit margins at 24.0% and 14.2%, respectively [5]. - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 26.7% and 27.4%, respectively, reflecting a slight decline year-on-year [5]. Financial Health - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 29.4 billion CNY in 2024, with a significant increase in Q1 2025 [6]. - Cash and cash equivalents reached over 150 billion CNY by the end of Q1 2025, marking a new high for the past year [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects an increase in net profit for 2025 and 2026 to 34.7 billion CNY and 37.0 billion CNY, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 40.4 billion CNY [7][9]. - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7, 7, and 6 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][21].

公司研究 汇兑损益影响当期业绩，To C 业务营收占比提升显著 ——润丰股份（301035.SZ）2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：54.72 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：周家诺 2025 年 4 月 28 日 执业证书编号：S0930523070007 021-52523675 zhoujianuo@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 2.81 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 153.64 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 35.53/63.50 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 23.72% | 股价相对走势 -30% -17% -4% 8% 21% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 润丰股份 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 0.12 | 12.12 | -7.67 | | 绝对 | -3.15 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) with a target price of 128.7 HKD, compared to the current price of 87.60 HKD [4]. Core Insights - Baidu Group's total revenue for Q1 2025 is expected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year to 31.04 billion RMB, while core revenue is projected to grow by 1.4% to 24.14 billion RMB. The core non-GAAP operating profit is anticipated to be 4.6 billion RMB, a decrease of 17.6% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 19.1% [1][2]. - The online marketing business is expected to face continued pressure, with a projected 6.0% decline in online marketing services revenue to 15.98 billion RMB in Q1 2025. However, improvements are anticipated in the first half of 2025 as macroeconomic conditions recover [1][2]. - Non-online marketing revenue is expected to grow significantly, driven by AI and cloud services, with a projected 20.1% year-on-year increase to 8.16 billion RMB in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Online Marketing Business - The online marketing services revenue is projected to decline by 6.0% to 15.98 billion RMB in Q1 2025, primarily due to insufficient recovery in macroeconomic conditions and weak demand from advertisers [1]. - Baidu is focusing on enhancing AI content quality in search, which is expected to improve user experience and drive commercial growth in the medium term [1]. Non-Online Marketing Business - The non-online marketing business is expected to see a robust growth of 20.1% year-on-year, reaching 8.16 billion RMB in Q1 2025, driven by strong demand for AI-related cloud services [1][2]. - Baidu's cloud business is anticipated to maintain rapid growth, with significant bidding activity in the AI market, positioning it as a leader among domestic large model vendors [1][2]. Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts a decline in non-GAAP net profit for 2025 to 25.1 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 7.05% year-on-year. The target price remains at 128.7 HKD, with a valuation multiple of 10.0x PE for advertising and cloud services [2][3][4].