[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月11日 总 量 研 究 [创业板月线技术条件相近于 Table_NewTitle] 2019年12月 突破前状态 ——技术分析行业指数简评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中》 2.《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能——技 术分析上证指数系列》 3.《上证指数短线或有反弹需求—— 技术分析上证指数简评》 4.《上证指数或有进一步震荡盘升动 能——技术分析上证指数简评》 5.《上证指数短线技术条件明显修 复，回落空间小上涨空间大——技术 分析上证指数简评》 6.《证券板块技术条件有所向好，上 涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析 行业板块简评》 7.《保险板块或已走出下降趋势，上 涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析 行业板块简评》 8.《若有效上破3418点压力位，指数 或有进一步盘升动能——技术分析 上证指数简评》 9.《证券板块在短线整理充分后，或 仍有震荡盘升动能——技术分析行 业板块简评》 ...

Group 1: Fluorochemical Industry - The fluorochemical industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity, with companies like Juhua Co. and Yonghe Co. forecasting significant profit increases for the first half of 2025, with Juhua's net profit expected to rise by 136% to 155% year-on-year [8][9] - The prices of third-generation refrigerants have increased, with R32, R125, and R134a priced at 52,500 CNY/ton, 45,500 CNY/ton, and 49,000 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 2.94%, 0%, and 1.03% since April [7] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. [9] Group 2: Renminbi Exchange Rate - The Renminbi exchange rate has undergone significant changes, transitioning from a surplus-driven "surplus settlement" to a "interest rate holding" model due to the inversion of interest rates between China and the US [12] - The current account surplus reached a historical high of 165.6 billion USD in Q1 2025, with a strong trade surplus of 237.6 billion USD, indicating robust support for the Renminbi [12][13] - The willingness of foreign trade enterprises to settle in Renminbi has increased, with net settlement rates rising to 41% in April 2025, reflecting a recovery in the foreign exchange market [14] Group 3: Lexin Technology (688018) - Lexin Technology is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.22 to 1.25 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% to 36% [17] - The company's net profit is expected to rise by 65% to 78%, driven by the adoption of its wireless SoC solutions across various digital scenarios [18] - Lexin's first Wi-Fi 6E wireless communication chip has completed engineering sample testing and is set for mass production in the second half of 2025, enhancing its competitive edge in high-speed wireless communication [19] Group 4: Renewable Energy and Power Equipment - The global wind power industry is expected to continue its growth, with an estimated 117 GW of new wind power capacity to be added in 2024 and a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% from 2025 to 2030 [25] - The report highlights the increasing demand for energy storage systems driven by the need for reliable power supply amid extreme weather and geopolitical events [24] - Companies with leading market shares and advanced technology in energy storage, such as CATL and EVE Energy, are recommended for investment [25]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月10日 [从定价模式和资本流动看人民币 Table_NewTitle] ——人民币汇率专题深度研究 [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 深 度 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 邓尧天 dytian@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 ➢ 人民币汇率的定价逻辑与市场回顾。汇率是一国货币相对于另一国货币的价格，不仅主导 国际贸易上货物服务的重要兑换价，亦可视作外汇市场上的资产价格。人民币汇率经历三 十年的市场化改革历程，从2005年"7.21"汇改放弃固定汇率制度，到2015年央行启动 "8.11"汇改，完善以市场化为基础的中间价制度。人民币汇率历史定价逻辑也从国际收 支顺差主导的"顺差结汇"逐渐转向中美利差倒挂主导的"利差持汇"。 ➢ 经常账户保持韧性为人民币提供底部支撑。2025年一季度经常账户数据先行释出，顺差达 1656亿美元，录得历 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4] Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in the AIOT long-tail market, with significant scale effects leading to increased profits. The revenue growth is primarily driven by the accelerated adoption of the company's wireless SoC solutions across various digital scenarios, including energy management and industrial control, alongside emerging fields like AI toys and smart agriculture [4][5]. - The company has a robust product matrix that includes Wi-Fi 6E and AI chips, with plans to expand into Wi-Fi 7 technology. The first Wi-Fi 6E chip is set for mass production in the second half of 2025, showcasing strong technical competitiveness [4][5]. - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities through collaborations, such as the launch of the EchoEar AI development kit, which aims to integrate AI into more smart terminal applications, thus expanding the AIoT industry [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a revenue of between 1.22 billion to 1.25 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% to 36%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 250 million to 270 million yuan, an increase of 65% to 78% year-on-year [4][5]. - The gross margin remains above 40%, with R&D expenses increasing by 20% to 25% year-on-year. The operating leverage effect is expected to drive rapid profit growth as revenue increases outpace R&D expense growth [4][5]. Product Development - The company has completed engineering sample testing for its first Wi-Fi 6E wireless communication chip, which supports advanced features and is designed for high-speed wireless communication applications. The next-generation Wi-Fi 7 chip is also in development, indicating a strong focus on technological advancement [4][5]. - The collaboration with the Volcano Engine team to develop the EchoEar AI development kit highlights the company's commitment to integrating AI into its product offerings, enhancing user interaction and expanding its market reach [4][5]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 554 million, 717 million, and 884 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 41.94, 32.40, and 26.28 times [4][5].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月10日 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle]20250710 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 周啸宇 S0630519030001 zhouxiaoy@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.CPI同比转正，PPI仍待"反内卷"发力——国内观察：2025年6月通胀数据 ➢ 2.行业供需弱平衡，关注AI与国产化机会—电子行业2025年中期投资策略 ➢ 1.国家发改委：今年经济体量有望达到140万亿元左右 ➢ 2.市场监管总局召开企业公平竞争座谈会 ➢ 3.国办印发《关于进一步加大稳就业政策支持力度的通知》 | 1. 重点推荐 | | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive long-term outlook for the semiconductor industry, particularly in the context of domestic production and AI development, suggesting a favorable investment environment [2][3]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is currently in a weak balance phase of supply and demand, with potential for continued weak balance into the second half of 2025. Domestic production is expected to accelerate due to external pressures, presenting significant long-term growth opportunities [2]. - Global semiconductor sales showed a year-on-year increase of 18.93% from January to April 2025, indicating a weak recovery in demand despite high inventory levels [2]. - The rise of AI technologies is driving demand for related components, such as computing chips and optical modules, which are expected to benefit from increased sales and pricing [3]. - The report emphasizes the urgency of domestic supply chain localization in response to international restrictions, highlighting the long-term potential for domestic semiconductor companies [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is characterized by cyclical trends, with price, inventory, capacity supply, and terminal demand being key indicators. Current data suggests a weak recovery in global semiconductor demand, with a notable rebound in storage product prices due to capacity control [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that storage module prices have begun to recover, while storage chip prices have increased between 10% to 220%. Despite high inventory levels, the supply side is stabilizing with wafer fab utilization rates around 80% [2][3]. AI and Innovation - The emergence of AI technologies is creating new product demands, particularly in AI servers and consumer electronics. Companies involved in AI-related components are expected to see significant growth [3]. Domestic Supply Chain - The report highlights the critical need for domestic supply chain development in the semiconductor sector, particularly in equipment, materials, and components, as international restrictions intensify [3]. Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include AI innovation in computing chips and optical modules, AI edge applications in consumer electronics, and the acceleration of domestic supply chain localization [3]. Financial Metrics - The report provides insights into the financial performance of semiconductor companies, indicating a significant improvement in net profit margins, with a year-on-year increase of 96.6% in Q1 2025 [68]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its recovery into the second half of 2025, driven by AI advancements and domestic production growth, with a focus on maintaining a balance between supply and demand [26][31].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, indicating potential improvements in supply and demand due to ongoing anti-involution policies [6]. Core Insights - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance the supply-demand dynamics within the industry, particularly in the pesticide sector, where inventory reduction has led to price increases [12]. - The report highlights significant price movements in key products, with notable increases in herbicide prices, such as glyphosate, which rose to 25,301 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.03% increase week-on-week and a 7.18% increase year-to-date [6][12]. - The report suggests investment opportunities in various sectors, including integrated refining and chemical companies, leading tire manufacturers, and firms involved in new material production [13]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry News and Event Commentary - The central government is focusing on promoting a unified national market and addressing low-price competition, which is expected to improve the overall market environment [12]. - The pesticide industry has shown significant inventory reduction, with glyphosate prices increasing due to tighter market supply [12]. 2. Chemical Sector Weekly Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.54%, while the basic chemical index increased by 0.80%, indicating a lag behind the broader market [14]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included oil and gas engineering, polyester, and compound fertilizers, while other plastic products and textile chemicals saw declines [15][16]. 3. Key Product Price Movements - Notable price increases were observed in butanone (12.43%), TDI (5.54%), and dichloromethane (3.97%), while acetone and NYMEX natural gas experienced significant declines [24][25]. - The report also tracks price spreads, with significant increases in the spreads for dimethyl ether and PET bottle chips, while the spreads for adipic acid and acetic acid saw substantial declines [26][27]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, as well as leading firms in the refrigerant and tire manufacturing sectors [13]. - It also highlights opportunities in the pesticide sector due to improving supply-demand conditions and suggests monitoring companies involved in high-end engineering plastics and semiconductor materials [13].

Investment Rating - The report rates the beauty and personal care industry as "Positive" for investment [3]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector has shown strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 6.90% as of June 2025, outperforming the market by 6.87 percentage points [7]. - The industry is entering a stable development phase, with performance differentiation among companies. Leading firms like Proya and Marubi are achieving steady growth, while emerging material companies like Jinbo Bio and Juzi Bio are experiencing rapid growth [9]. - The cosmetics market is maturing, with a slight decline in market size expected in 2024, projected at 774.645 billion yuan, down 2.83% year-on-year [19]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The beauty and personal care sector has shown a strong performance, with the beauty care segment outperforming the market [7][9]. - The cosmetics market is transitioning to a stable growth phase, with a strong siphoning effect observed during major shopping events like "618" and "Double Eleven" [18]. Cosmetics - The cosmetics market is experiencing a stable growth phase, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% in the first five months of 2025, compared to a decline of 1.1% in 2024 [18]. - The market size for cosmetics is projected to be 774.645 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a slight decline from previous years [19]. - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with the market share of domestic products reaching 55.7% in 2024 [45]. Medical Aesthetics - The non-surgical medical aesthetics market is growing rapidly due to its safety and ease of operation, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15%-20% over the next five years [55]. - The market for collagen products is expected to reach 58.57 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth anticipated in the coming years [65]. Personal Care - The personal care segment has shown strong growth, driven by new consumer trends and increased awareness of personal health care [91]. - The online penetration rate for personal care products is currently low, indicating significant growth potential in e-commerce [97].

Group 1: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw an overall increase of 3.64% from June 30 to July 4, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points [7] - The sector's year-to-date growth is 10.10%, ranking fourth among 31 industries, with a current PE valuation of 28.44 times, indicating a 127% premium over the CSI 300 [7] - Key sub-sectors that performed well include chemical pharmaceuticals, medical services, and biological products, with respective increases of 5.03%, 4.47%, and 4.40% [7] - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have introduced measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing a full-chain support approach [8] - The approval of innovative drugs like Dize Pharmaceutical's Shuwotini in the U.S. highlights the international competitiveness of domestic innovative drugs [9] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.62%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.92 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors [11] - The liquor segment, particularly Moutai, showed signs of stabilization with a price increase, while the overall industry is expected to undergo a clearing process due to macroeconomic pressures [12] - The snack segment is experiencing high growth, driven by consumer demand for healthier options and the rise of new retail channels [26] - The dairy sector is expected to improve as raw milk prices stabilize, leading to enhanced profitability for leading dairy companies [26] Group 3: Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is witnessing a mild recovery, with domestic GPU companies like Moer Thread and Muxi Technology receiving IPO approvals, indicating a capital market push for the domestic GPU industry [20] - The easing of EDA sales restrictions from the U.S. is expected to provide short-term relief, but long-term development of domestic EDA remains critical [23] - The sector's overall performance lagged behind the CSI 300 index, with a PE ratio of 52.63 times, indicating a need for cautious investment [24] Group 4: Consumer Goods Industry - The consumer goods sector is facing slow recovery, with traditional food and beverage demands under pressure, but structural opportunities are emerging in high-growth segments like snacks and beer [25] - The beer segment is expected to benefit from improved demand and cost reductions, with leading brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer showing strong growth potential [26] - The dairy industry is poised for recovery as supply-demand dynamics improve, with a focus on profitability among leading companies [26] Group 5: Refrigeration Equipment Industry - The household refrigeration equipment market is entering a phase of competition driven by replacement demand, with leading companies leveraging supply chain advantages [28] - The potential for overseas expansion is significant, particularly in emerging markets, as domestic companies adapt to changing global trade policies [29] - The demand for specialized refrigeration solutions in data centers is increasing, necessitating enhanced design and operational capabilities [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price in the next six months [1][5]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated resilience in its core automotive interior business, achieving a revenue of 2.098 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.35%, significantly exceeding its target [5]. - The first unlocking phase of the employee stock ownership plan has been completed, with 36 holders unlocking a total of 4.6706 million shares, accounting for 0.32% of the total share capital [5]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in profits in 2025, with a projected net profit of 2.17 billion yuan, reflecting a growth trajectory supported by product structure optimization and the potential of the filter business as a second growth driver [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s main revenue is projected to grow from 2.098 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.343 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 12% year-on-year increase [4][6]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit is expected to rise from 163 million yuan in 2024 to 217 million yuan in 2025, marking a 33% increase [4][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.11 yuan in 2024 to 0.15 yuan in 2025 [4][6]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin is expected to stabilize at around 24% from 2025 onwards [4][6]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: ROE is projected to improve from 4% in 2024 to 6% in 2025 [4][6]. Business Segment Performance - **Automotive Interior Business**: This segment achieved a revenue of 1.926 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20.88%, driven by the recovery in the automotive industry and an increase in orders for new energy vehicle components [5]. - **New Energy Business**: The new energy segment faced challenges, with revenue declining by 17.99% to 172 million yuan in 2024 due to insufficient grid consumption capacity and falling market prices [5]. - **Filter Business**: The company’s filter business is expected to contribute positively as production ramps up, with plans to launch new products in 2025 [5].