[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月16日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250516 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 ➢ 1.鲍威尔表示随着经济和政策不断变动，长期利率可能会走高 ➢ 2.美国4月PPI数据发布 ➢ 3.中国人民银行、科技部、金融监管总局和中国证监会联合召开科技金融工作交流推进会 ➢ 4.央行公告：优化"互换通"的机制安排 | 1. 重点推荐 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 1.1. 老百姓（603883）：深耕优势区域，业绩有望逐渐企稳向好——公司简评报告 | | | | 3 | | 1.2. 政府融资驱动社融较快增长，贷款边际放缓——银行业"量价质"跟踪（十 | | | 四） | 4 | | 2. 财经新闻 | 6 | | 股市 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to gradually stabilize and improve its performance as it deepens its advantages in key regions [1][4]. - The company faced short-term performance pressure due to various factors, including losses from new store openings and store closures, as well as increased depreciation and amortization [4][5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its retail ecosystem and enhancing its new retail business, with significant growth in online sales channels [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.36 billion yuan (down 0.36% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 519 million yuan (down 44.13% year-on-year) [4][5]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.43 billion yuan (down 1.88% year-on-year, down 11.27% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 251 million yuan (down 21.98% year-on-year, up 325.63% quarter-on-quarter) [4][5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 33.17%, with a net margin of 3.06% [4][5]. Business Segment Performance - Retail business revenue in 2024 was 19.11 billion yuan (down 1.25% year-on-year), while franchise, alliance, and distribution revenue was 3.11 billion yuan (up 5.92% year-on-year) [4][5]. - The company’s online sales reached approximately 2.47 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 24% [4][5]. - The company has increased its store count to 15,277 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,703 stores (up 12.55% year-on-year) [4][5]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 692 million yuan, 799 million yuan, and 909 million yuan, respectively [4][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 0.91 yuan, 1.05 yuan, and 1.20 yuan [4][5]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 9.13% in 2025, 9.49% in 2026, and 9.39% in 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to gradually stabilize and improve its performance as it deepens its advantages in key regions [1] - The report highlights that the company's revenue and profit have been under pressure due to various factors, including losses from new stores and increased depreciation [4][5] - The company is focusing on expanding its retail business and enhancing its new retail ecosystem, with significant growth in online sales and O2O services [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.36 billion yuan (down 0.36% year-on-year) and a net profit of 519 million yuan (down 44.13% year-on-year) [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.43 billion yuan (down 1.88% year-on-year) and a net profit of 251 million yuan (down 21.98% year-on-year) [4][5] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 33.17%, with a net margin of 3.06% [4][5] Business Segments - Retail business revenue was 19.11 billion yuan (down 1.25% year-on-year), while franchise, alliance, and distribution revenue was 3.11 billion yuan (up 5.92% year-on-year) [4] - The company has been expanding its product line in the new retail sector, with online sales reaching approximately 2.47 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of about 24% [4] Market Strategy - The company plans to continue focusing on its advantageous markets and accelerate its presence in lower-tier cities, with 80% of new stores in 2024 located in cities at or below the prefecture level [4][5] - The total number of stores reached 15,277 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,703 stores, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.55% [4][5] Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 692 million yuan, 799 million yuan, and 909 million yuan, respectively [5] - The expected EPS for the same years is 0.91 yuan, 1.05 yuan, and 1.20 yuan [5]

Group 1: U.S. Inflation Analysis - The U.S. April CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3% [5][6] - Three reasons are identified for the lower-than-expected inflation: the time lag in tariff transmission to prices, absorption of tariff impacts by U.S. importers and foreign exporters, and declining energy prices offsetting tariff-induced price increases [6][10][12] - Energy prices continued to decline, with energy commodities down 11.5% year-on-year, while energy services remained strong, with gas prices increasing 15.7% year-on-year [7][8] Group 2: Yifeng Pharmacy (603939) - Yifeng Pharmacy achieved a revenue of 24.06 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.53%, and a net profit of 1.529 billion yuan, up 8.26% [16][17] - The company reported a strong performance in its franchise and distribution business, with a revenue increase of 11.34% [17] - The company is focusing on expanding its O2O business, which generated 2.127 billion yuan in revenue, with a 23.02% year-on-year growth [17][19] Group 3: Zhichun Technology (603690) - Zhichun Technology reported a revenue of 3.605 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.40%, but a net profit decline of 93.75% [21][22] - The company is transitioning to a domestic supply chain, with system integration business revenue growing by 22.07% [22][23] - New orders increased by 17.88% in 2024, with a focus on equipment and electronic materials business segments [24][25]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月15日 标配 行 业 简 评 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -23% -14% -4% 5% 14% 24% 33% 24-05 24-08 24-11 25-02 申万行业指数:银行(0748) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.工商银行（601398）：息差和中间 业务收入压力或趋于平缓——公司 简评报告 2.资金端降息效应强于投资端—— 银行业"量价质"跟踪（十三） 3.工商银行（601398）：息差压力缓 解，资产质量整体稳定——公司简评 报告 4.宁波银行（002142）：息差、投资 及资产质量彰显专业经营优势—— 公司简评报告 [Table_NewTitle 政府融资驱动社融较快增长，贷款边际 ] 放缓 ——银行业"量价质"跟踪（十四） [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates robust performance growth, showcasing its refined management capabilities. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.062 billion yuan (up 6.53% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.529 billion yuan (up 8.26% year-on-year) [2] - The company has seen steady growth in its retail and franchise distribution businesses, with the online O2O business growing rapidly. In 2024, retail revenue reached 21.188 billion yuan (up 4.97% year-on-year), and the O2O segment contributed 1.721 billion yuan, growing 23.02% year-on-year [5] - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement while maintaining a steady expansion pace. As of the end of 2024, the total number of stores reached 14,684, with a net increase of 1,434 stores year-on-year [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.009 billion yuan (up 0.64% year-on-year) and a net profit of 449 million yuan (up 10.51% year-on-year) [2] - The gross margin for 2024 was 40.12%, and for Q1 2025, it was 39.64%, indicating a slight increase year-on-year [5] Business Segments - The company’s franchise and distribution business achieved a revenue of 2.107 billion yuan in 2024 (up 11.34% year-on-year) [5] - The company has strengthened its prescription drug services and expanded its product offerings, including functional and non-functional food and daily necessities [5] Future Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.755 billion yuan, 1.992 billion yuan, and 2.245 billion yuan, respectively [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are expected to be 1.45 yuan, 1.64 yuan, and 1.85 yuan [7]

Group 1: Tire Industry - Raw material cost pressure has eased, with a focus on changes in domestic and foreign demand. Prices for natural rubber, synthetic rubber, carbon black, and additives have decreased, benefiting tire companies' profit recovery. However, international trade friction poses challenges for tire exports, and companies face ongoing shipment pressures. Long-term, companies with global layouts close to major consumer markets are expected to compete effectively, with recommendations to focus on leading companies like Sailun, General Tire, and Linglong Tire [6][5]. Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.76% increase last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index. Sub-sectors like health products and baked goods performed well, with respective increases of 5.09% and 4.25%. Notable stock performances included Jia Jia Food and Qinghai Spring, with increases of 21.49% and 20.65% [8][9]. - In the liquor segment, companies are focusing on product and channel optimization. For instance, Wuliangye has maintained stable sales of its main products, while Jiannanchun has seen significant growth in the 100-300 RMB price range. The white liquor sector is expected to recover as policies support demand [9][11][13]. Group 3: Banking Sector - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 212.77 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.22% year-on-year, with a net profit of 84.16 billion RMB, down 3.99% year-on-year. The bank's total assets reached 51.55 trillion RMB, up 8.29% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% [15][16]. - The bank's net interest margin was 1.33%, down 15 basis points year-on-year. The decline in interest margin is attributed to the repricing of loans and the impact of government bond issuance [18][20]. - The bank's fee and commission income showed a narrowing decline, indicating potential recovery in wealth management and capital market activities [19][20]. Group 4: Petrochemical Industry - The report highlights the potential for recovery in oil demand due to trade negotiations between China and the U.S. The expected stabilization of oil prices in Q2 is anticipated to benefit companies with upstream resources, such as China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [22][25]. - The petrochemical sector is expected to maintain a cost advantage due to improvements in the domestic supply chain, despite short-term bearish sentiment from trade tensions [23][24]. Group 5: Refrigerant Industry - Prices for refrigerants have been on an upward trend, with demand continuing to rise. As of April 30, 2025, prices for R32, R125, and R134a were reported at 49,000 RMB/ton, 45,000 RMB/ton, and 47,500 RMB/ton, respectively [26][27]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to maintain year-on-year growth, supporting refrigerant demand. The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant sector, such as Juhua and Sanmei [28]. Group 6: Pharmaceutical Industry - Lingrui Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 3.501 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.72%, with a net profit of 723 million RMB, up 27.19%. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.021 billion RMB, a 12.29% increase year-on-year [29][30]. - The company is expanding its product line and market reach, with significant growth in its patch and tablet segments. The acquisition of Yingu Pharmaceutical is expected to enhance its product matrix and market penetration [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the dairy sector driven by favorable policies related to fertility, which are expected to boost demand. The supply-demand balance for raw milk is anticipated to improve, leading to stabilization in milk prices [4]. - In the liquor segment, the focus is on high-end products and regional leaders, with specific recommendations for companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye. The report notes that the white liquor sector is currently experiencing a bottoming out in valuations, with expectations for demand recovery supported by policy measures [4]. - The snack food sector continues to show high growth potential, with recommendations for companies such as Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Food. The report also emphasizes the resilience of the restaurant supply chain, suggesting investments in companies like Anjifood and Qianwei Yangchun [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 1.76% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors [5][10]. - The best-performing sub-sectors included health products and baked goods, which increased by 5.09% and 4.25%, respectively [10]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - The report provides detailed pricing data for key liquor products, noting that the price of the 2024 Moutai original bottle is 2,190 yuan, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [20]. - In the beer sector, production for March 2025 reached 312.8 million hectoliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [25]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 2% year-on-year decline in liquor prices as of April, with overall food and beverage prices showing a slight increase [55]. 4. Core Company Updates - Qingdao Beer plans to acquire 100% equity of Jimo Huangjiu from Xinhua Jin Group and Lujin Group for 666 million yuan [56]. - Baba Foods announced a cash dividend of 0.80 yuan per share, totaling 192 million yuan [56].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1][56]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.76% increase last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 first-level sectors [5][10]. - The report highlights strong performance in the snack and baking sub-sectors, with increases of 5.09% and 4.25% respectively [5][10]. - Key companies to watch include high-end liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as leading snack companies like Salted Fish and Gan Yuan Foods [4][5]. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance is detailed, with the top five gainers being Jia Jia Foods (21.49%), Qinghai Spring (20.65%), Jiao Da Ang Li (15.18%), Lanzhou Yellow River (14.05%), and West Wheat Foods (12.83%) [10][15]. - Conversely, the top five decliners included Miao Ke Lan Duo (-1.92%), Hao Xiang Ni (-1.95%), Shanghai Mei Lin (-3.21%), Gan Yuan Foods (-5.31%), and An Ji Foods (-15.99%) [10][15]. Sub-sector Analysis - The liquor segment is focusing on product and channel optimization, with companies like Wuliangye and Jinshiyuan showing stable sales and market strategies [5][10]. - The beer sector is expected to see marginal improvements in sales as temperatures rise, with a reported production of 854.1 million liters in the first quarter of 2025, down 2.2% year-on-year [25][28]. - The snack sector remains robust, with Salted Fish and Jin Zai Foods leading in growth, supported by new channels and strong product categories [4][5]. Price Trends - As of May 10, 2025, the price for 2024's original and scattered Flying Moutai is reported at 2,190 RMB and 2,120 RMB respectively, with slight fluctuations noted [20][21]. - Dairy product prices show a downward trend, with fresh milk priced at 12.17 RMB per liter, down 0.90% year-on-year [27][39]. Company Dynamics - Recent developments include Qingdao Beer acquiring 100% equity of Jimo Yellow Wine for 665 million RMB, and Baba Foods announcing a cash dividend of 0.80 RMB per share [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 212.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.22% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84.16 billion yuan, down 3.99% year-on-year [2] - Total assets at the end of Q1 stood at 51.55 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.29% year-on-year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33%, down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter [2] - The net interest margin for Q1 was 1.33%, a decline of 15 basis points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue decreased by 3.22% year-on-year to 2127.74 billion yuan, with net profit down 3.99% to 841.56 billion yuan [2] - Total assets increased by 8.29% year-on-year to 51.55 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% [2] Loan and Deposit Growth - Government financing has driven growth in investment assets, while loan growth has slightly slowed due to demand factors [6] - Deposit growth has shown a slight recovery, influenced by macroeconomic policies [6] Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin for Q1 was 1.33%, reflecting a decline due to repricing effects [6] - Fee and commission income has seen a narrowing decline, with potential for recovery in the upcoming quarters [6] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.33% at the end of 2024 [7] - Individual loan risks are expected to be manageable, supported by a solid customer base and prudent risk management [7] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to maintain stable operations despite rising pressures, with projected revenues of 817.5 billion yuan, 833 billion yuan, and 880.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating based on the company's strong customer base, diversified business, and stable dividend policy [8]