李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 简 评 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年03月09日 [Table_NewTitle] 3月CPI同比转正的难度不大 ——国内观察：2025年2月通胀数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 胡少华 S0630516090002 hush@longone.com.cn 联系人 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 ➢ 事件：2025年3月9日，统计局发布2月通胀数据。2月，CPI当月同比-0.7%，前值0.5%； 环比-0.2%，前值0.7%。PPI当月同比-2.2%，前值-2.3%；环比-0.1%，前值-0.2%。 ➢ 核心观点：春节错位继续对CPI造成影响，2月同比回落也符合我们之前的判断。据统计局 测算，扣除春节错位影响2月CPI同比0.1%。从环比来推算，3月CPI以及核心CPI同比回正 的难度不会太大，但总体来 ...

Trade Data Overview - In January-February 2025, China's exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year, down from 10.7% in December 2024, while imports decreased by 8.4% compared to a 1.0% increase in December 2024[3] - The trade surplus reached $170.515 billion, an increase of $45.871 billion year-on-year[3] Export Performance - The export value for January-February 2025 was $539.941 billion, marking a historical high for the period; however, the year-on-year growth rate fell by 8.4 percentage points compared to December 2024[3] - The month-on-month growth from December 2024 to January-February 2025 was 60.88%, below the five-year average of 65.11%[3] Import Trends - The import value was $369.426 billion, the lowest for the same period since 2021; month-on-month, it increased by 60.07%, but this was lower than the 76.52% increase seen in the previous year[3] - Major commodities like iron ore and copper saw significant declines in import growth due to high base effects from the previous year[3] Sector-Specific Insights - High-tech products showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, while machinery and agricultural products experienced declines of 7.9% and 9.1%, respectively[3] - Exports to the US, EU, and ASEAN saw notable declines, with year-on-year decreases of 13.29%, 8.16%, and 13.24% respectively; however, exports to Japan increased by 0.7%[3] Economic Implications - The weak import growth alongside relatively strong export performance suggests that the trade surplus may continue to support GDP in the first quarter[3] - The report highlights the importance of domestic demand policies to counteract the weak import performance and ensure economic stability[3]

Group 1 - The report interprets the 2025 government work report, highlighting a GDP growth target of around 5%, which aligns with market expectations, but emphasizes the need for stronger domestic demand policies due to rising uncertainties in external demand [7][10][23] - Fiscal policy is set to be more aggressive, with public budget expenditure expected to increase by 4.4% year-on-year, and a significant rise in the deficit ratio to around 4%, indicating a more flexible approach to fiscal management [8][9][10] - The monetary policy will maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with a CPI target lowered from 3% to 2%, reflecting a more pragmatic approach to managing inflation and economic growth [9][10][24] Group 2 - The oil and petrochemical industry report discusses the historical context of oil price fluctuations, particularly the 2014-2015 period, and its implications for future price trends, emphasizing the relationship between oil prices and economic cycles [16][17] - The report predicts a V-shaped recovery for international oil prices in 2025, with expected fluctuations between $55 and $80 per barrel, driven by factors such as U.S. monetary policy and China's economic recovery [19] - Investment opportunities are identified in downstream chemical companies that are likely to benefit from economic recovery, including companies like Hengli Petrochemical and China Petroleum [19] Group 3 - The banking sector report indicates that the banking sector is expected to experience manageable pressure on interest margins, with credit growth anticipated to be robust due to supportive fiscal policies and demand from real estate and local government financing [23][25][26] - The report highlights the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and local government debt risks, suggesting that these factors will positively influence bank valuations and credit growth [26] - Investment recommendations focus on banks with stable dividends and recovery potential, particularly state-owned banks and leading small and medium-sized banks [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, suggesting to "buy on dips" and focus on leading companies in specific segments [4][6]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry showed signs of recovery in February 2025, with a slight increase in demand across various segments, particularly in AI servers and new energy vehicles. However, prices remain under pressure due to ample supply [4][6]. - The report highlights the importance of AI applications and the potential for growth in AIOT and edge AI sectors, indicating a long-term investment opportunity [4][6]. - The overall market sentiment is bolstered by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption in the electronics sector, particularly with the anticipated rollout of national subsidies in 2025 [4][6]. Monthly Market Review - The semiconductor sector experienced a 12.31% increase in February, outperforming the overall electronic sector, which rose by 8.31%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 1.91% [14][16]. - The report notes that the semiconductor industry's valuation metrics, such as PE and PB ratios, are currently at high historical levels, indicating strong market expectations for future growth [22][25]. Supply and Demand Tracking - The semiconductor supply remains relatively abundant, with a weak balance between supply and demand expected to continue into March 2025. Some product prices are showing signs of recovery, although overall price levels are still declining [4][6]. - The report cites a 17.08% year-over-year increase in global semiconductor sales for December 2024, reflecting a broader recovery in demand [4][6]. Downstream Demand Data - Key drivers of semiconductor demand include smartphones, TWS earbuds, and AI servers, with significant growth noted in the new energy vehicle sector, which saw a 29.49% year-over-year increase in sales in January 2025 [4][6]. - The report anticipates that AI server shipments will continue to grow at over 25% annually for the next three years, driven by increased investments in AI technologies [4][6]. Fund Holdings Distribution - As of Q4 2024, the electronic sector remains the top holding for public funds, with a total market value of 445.739 billion yuan, indicating strong investor confidence in the sector [27][30].

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The "Two Sessions" economic press conference emphasized "technology" and "consumption," with technology mentioned 90 times and consumption 80 times, indicating a focus on incremental policy deployment in these areas[3] - The establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund aims to attract nearly CNY 1 trillion in local and social capital, focusing on hard technology sectors like AI and quantum technology[3] - The scale of re-lending for technological innovation and technical transformation will be expanded from CNY 500 billion to between CNY 800 billion and CNY 1 trillion, with a reduction in re-lending rates[3] Group 2: Consumption and Fiscal Measures - The Ministry of Commerce highlighted that the main contradiction in commodity consumption is demand, while service consumption faces a shortage of quality supply, guiding future consumption policies[3] - A new consumption stimulus plan will soon be implemented, including two loan interest subsidy policies targeting key personal consumption loans and sectors like catering and healthcare[3] - The 2025 government budget draft indicates CNY 1.3 trillion in special bonds, with CNY 800 billion allocated for "two renewals," CNY 300 billion for consumer goods replacement, and CNY 200 billion for equipment updates, all increasing from last year[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The central bank is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) before interest rates, with the current average RRR at 6.6% indicating room for reduction[3] - The effectiveness of long-term capital entering the market is becoming evident, with net purchases of A-shares by various pension funds amounting to approximately CNY 290 billion[4] - The scale of equity funds has increased from CNY 6.3 trillion to CNY 7.7 trillion since September last year, indicating a significant acceleration in equity fund development[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [26]. Core Insights - The government work report from the 2025 National People's Congress outlines the future direction for capital market development, emphasizing the importance of a comprehensive regulatory framework and the need for high-quality growth in the capital market [10][11]. - The "1+N" regulatory system is gradually being perfected, with over 50 new rules established to enhance market regulation and improve the quality of listed companies [11][12]. - There is a significant increase in long-term capital entering the market, driven by reforms in the investment and financing landscape, which is expected to stabilize the capital market [14][18]. - The capital market is increasingly supporting the development of strategic emerging industries, with over 40% of the market capitalization now attributed to these sectors, enhancing market vitality and attractiveness [20][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Regulatory Framework and High-Quality Development - The "1+N" regulatory system is being refined, with a focus on strict oversight to enhance the quality of listed companies and prevent financial misconduct [11][12]. - The regulatory environment has led to record levels of dividends and share buybacks, with total dividends reaching 2.4 trillion yuan in 2024, significantly exceeding IPO and refinancing amounts [13]. 2. Long-Term Capital and Investment Reforms - New monetary policy tools have been implemented, resulting in a notable increase in long-term capital entering the market, with over 400 companies disclosing stock repurchase plans [14][16]. - The growth of equity funds and ETFs indicates a strengthening of the public fund sector, with equity fund assets increasing from 6.3 trillion yuan to 7.7 trillion yuan [16][17]. 3. Supporting New Productive Forces - The market capitalization of strategic emerging industries has surpassed 40%, with a strong focus on high-tech companies, which are supported by improved financing channels and governance [20][22]. - The introduction of a "Technology Board" in the bond market aims to provide diverse financing options for technology enterprises, enhancing the capital market's service capabilities [23].

Group 1: Changan Automobile (000625) - In February 2025, Changan Automobile reported a wholesale sales volume of 161,400 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 0.94% for the cumulative sales from January to February 2025 [7] - The company's February 2025 new energy vehicle sales reached 39,700 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 68.4% [8] - Changan plans to launch 13 new energy models in 2025, expanding its global product reach to 81 countries [9] - The company is enhancing its smart driving capabilities with differentiated configurations across various price segments, aiming to lower the entry barrier for high-end smart driving experiences [9] - The forecasted net profit for Changan from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 5.245 billion, 6.885 billion, and 9.662 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.53, 0.69, and 0.97 yuan [10] Group 2: Economic and Market Outlook - The 2025 government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5%, emphasizing the need for policy support to boost domestic demand amid external uncertainties [15][16] - Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, with a budget deficit rate set at 4%, the highest in recent years, and an increase in public budget expenditure by 4.4% [17][33] - The report highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand, with a focus on consumer spending and effective investment [21][22] - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with potential for interest rate cuts and a focus on supporting technological innovation [18][37] Group 3: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - The report discusses the correlation between international oil prices and economic cycles, noting that oil prices are influenced by various factors including geopolitical events and market sentiment [27][28] - It predicts a V-shaped trend for international oil prices in 2025, with expected fluctuations between $55 and $80 per barrel [30] - The report suggests that downstream petrochemical companies may face inventory losses during price declines but could benefit from price recovery driven by demand [30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - In 2024, the retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment in China are projected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year, with a "front low and back high" trend in the domestic market. The sales growth in the last quarter of 2024 is expected to achieve double-digit increases, with monthly growth rates of 20.5%, 39.2%, 22.2%, and 39.3% from September to December [5]. - The "trade-in for new" policy is driving product innovation, with significant sales increases in energy-efficient products during major shopping events. For instance, sales of energy-efficient gas water heaters and washing machines saw growth rates of 96% and 261%, respectively [5]. - The industry paradigm is shifting from price competition to value competition, with leading appliance companies focusing on technological upgrades and scenario-based services. This includes comprehensive air solutions that integrate various home climate control systems [5]. - The government plans to continue promoting the "trade-in for new" initiative in 2025, with a budget of 300 billion yuan for consumer subsidies, expanding the range of subsidized products from 8 to 12 categories [5]. - The upcoming China Household Appliances and Consumer Electronics Expo in March 2025 will focus on AI technology and its integration into household appliances, showcasing innovations and industry ecosystem collaborations [5]. - The rise of the silver economy and single-person economy presents structural opportunities for smart home applications, with traditional appliance companies enhancing their smart product offerings [5]. - Some appliance manufacturers are diversifying into new business areas, such as automotive and robotics components, leveraging stable cash flows from their core operations [5]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on traditional appliance groups and companies specializing in smart products, such as Haier, Midea, Gree, and companies involved in smart manufacturing and new technology development [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Changan Automobile's wholesale sales in February 2025 reached 161,400 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.72% but a month-on-month decrease of 41.45%. Cumulative wholesale sales for January-February 2025 totaled 437,100 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.94% [2] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the company's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, which reached 39,700 units in February, marking a month-on-month increase of 68.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 41.25% [2] - The company plans to launch 13 new energy models in 2025, enhancing its global strategy and product offerings, with a focus on smart driving solutions and international expansion [6][7] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In February 2025, the company's total wholesale sales, self-owned brands, and self-owned passenger vehicle sales all experienced month-on-month declines but year-on-year growth. The decline was primarily due to adjustments in production schedules post-Spring Festival and temporary market demand contraction [6] - The NEV penetration rate improved compared to January 2025, with significant contributions from new models set to launch in April 2025 [6] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for the company's main revenue is projected to grow from 151.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 203.9 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.5% [3][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 5.2 billion yuan in 2024 to 9.7 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a recovery after a projected dip in 2024 [3][7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its collaboration with partners like Huawei and CATL, which is expected to bolster its electric and smart transformation efforts [6] - The report outlines the company's plans for international expansion, including the establishment of a factory in Southeast Asia and the introduction of its brands in various global markets [6][7]

Economic Growth and Policy Direction - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, aligning with market expectations, but achieving this will require significant effort due to increasing uncertainties in external demand and trade policies[10] - The contribution of net exports to GDP in 2024 was over 30%, the highest since 1997, but the complex external environment in 2025 necessitates a strong focus on domestic demand[12] Fiscal Policy Measures - Fiscal spending is projected to increase by 4.4% year-on-year, reaching a total of 29.7 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan compared to 2024[15] - The budget deficit is expected to exceed 4% of GDP, breaking the implicit 3% constraint, with a total deficit of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year[13] - Special bonds for local governments will increase by 500 billion yuan to 4.4 trillion yuan, emphasizing investment in infrastructure and housing[15] Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy will maintain an "appropriate easing" stance, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth[17] - The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, reflecting a more pragmatic approach to inflation management in line with global standards[18] Focus on Domestic Demand - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with a specific focus on consumer spending, supported by 300 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing old consumer goods, doubling last year's allocation[24] - Central budget investment is planned at 735 billion yuan, an increase of 350 billion yuan from the previous year, emphasizing effective investment[25] Innovation and Green Transition - The report highlights the importance of fostering new industries and upgrading traditional sectors, with a focus on technology and green transformation, including a 3% reduction target in energy consumption per unit of GDP[30] - The government aims to accelerate the development of renewable energy sources and enhance carbon emission control measures[30] Real Estate and Capital Market Stability - The government emphasizes stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, with ongoing efforts to prevent declines and support recovery in housing demand[31] - Capital market reforms will focus on enhancing long-term investment and improving the regulatory framework to boost market stability and investor confidence[34] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, the impact of U.S. tariff policies, and ongoing pressures in the real estate sector, which could affect overall economic stability[41]